OT: 5 Kentucky Players Declaring for Draft

[DogMania]

I would say Ryan Harrow is about the same as Teague so far. He might be better because he should be a sophomore/junior version as opposed to a freshman version, but just from a prospect POV he's fairly similar.

Goodwin is quicker and more athletic than Lamb but Lamb had a lot of savvy and was a heck of a shooter. Not sure this is an upgrade for the team, just very different players. It is an athletic upgrade, that I will agree on.

Poythress is a fine player and could be better than MKG, but the big question is the motor. MKG had a fantastic motor that is going to be hard to replace by anyone, even a better prospect, like Poythress.

The big downgrade will be at the PF position, with Jones gone. There is some talk of them signing Bennett/Jefferson but currently this is a huge downgrade to Wiltjer.

The second big downgrade is at Center. Noel is a fantastic player but he is not as good as Davis on either side of the court from what I have seen.

The third downgrade is the bench. They lose Wiltjer to the starting 5, they lose Miller and Vargas to graduation. They replace them with Cauley, who is a great pickup but raw. If they get Bennet/Jefferson then they gain back Wiltjer on the bench but still lose Miller.

Miller is a huge lose (assuming all 5 starters are gone) because they have no backup guards. Miller was able to come in and back up the 2 which shifted Lamb to the 1 and gave Teague a rest. Unless they can get something out of the blue or can pull something from their stiffs, they are in trouble in the backcourt.

If they that is their lineup that will be younger than this past year and not as deep.

With any young team, you never know how well their chemistry will come together and how soon they will be ready to handle the big moments. Usually it takes at least 2 years. Last year was unique though they did have one Senior who was a solid contributor and two juniors that had some F-4 experience from the year before as well.

The addition of Harrow to run the point is huge. Arguably the most important position and they get a kid who has some D1 experience.

As for missing Davis, his contribution was mainly on the defensive end of the floor though his offense continued to improve as the season went on. If Noel can learn to stay on the floor for long stretches, UK might not have that much of a drop off at the 5. They also have Willie Cauley, ranked #9 (Scout) and #15 (Rivals) at the center position. Granted you're talking about 2 freshman manning the point. Freshman Bigs quite often give you 10 minutes of PT before fouling out. Hopefully for them both will learn to play D with their feet and not their hands.

Goodwin will give them a better all around 2G, but again, he'll be just a freshman compared to the battle tested Lamb who struggled his first season, but really came up big this past one. Goodwin really impressed me with his all around game. On a side note, I was not impressed the first time I saw Purvis, but wow, he was awesome during the All-Star game I watched a few weeks ago. It stung a bit when I heard that we came a close 2nd. It sounded like if not for the tournament ban, he might not have had the hesitations he had and just might have pulled the trigger for the Huskies. Oh, well. We move on.

I really like Poythress. He's a true combo guard that can give them minutes at the 3 and the 4. He has ridiculous range for a kid his size and can put it on the floor. He also looks like a kid who's not afraid to bang under the basket and should be a very good rebounder. As good as Jones was, I think he'll exceed his production this coming season. Just seems like a kid who has a lot of confidence in his abilities, something that Jones struggled with at times. I realize that Jones slide over from the 3 to the 4 this past season and that MKG was UK's primary wing. If UK is able to add Bennett at the 4, then he's the true replacement for Jones, which I think will be an upgrade since Bennett is a more true 4-man while Jones was a 3/4 combo. As for Poythress vs MKG, it looks like a wash, though MKG was very good at attacking the basket and finishing in transition. I think many under value how good and how important MKG was for this team.

The one player that would put them over the top is Bennett. He already has the body to play at the next level and has a ton of game to go along with it. As noted above he'd be an upgrade over Jones due to being a better position fit at the 4, and IMO, would make them a major threat for reaching -4. I haven't really surveyed the field to see if there are any top tier teams returning many of their key players. If much of the big boys are at a minimum doing some retooling, then a young talented UK team might just come together and make another run for the title, especially if Noel is able to stay on the floor and take away the paint. Our young team two years ago wasn't exactly an offensive juggernaut, but we had enough offense thanks to Kemba and an impressive team defense that came together at just the right time. If Harrow can come in and lead this team with some level of maturity, note that I know very little about him, he could be the glue guy and voice of calm to shepherd this young team deep into March. One thing to keep in mind though, who is their back-up PG? Harrow is not going to be able to play 40 minutes every game and they could find themselves in a lot of trouble if Harrow gets into foul trouble. Maybe Goodwin can slide over to the 1 and hold down the ship for whatever minutes they need.

They just look like a very talented but young and thin (depth wise) team. Unlike this past season, where I stated that they had the right pieces to win it all with a team lead primarily by Freshman and Sophomores, I'm not so sure about this group, even if they get Bennett. I think their youth and inexperience won't carry them 6 consecutive games in March. Someone will trip them up. Last season, they didn't have any one or even two players to rely on for scoring. They really did a nice job of spreading it around, but those they spread it to were very good offensive players. I just don't think the new group has nearly as much offensive fire power. I can see them relying a lot of Goodwin against teams that are able to shut down their inside game and young scores have a long history of shooting their teams right out of the tournament. Knight against us two years ago, is case in point. I would not be shocked if the Squid makes it back-to-back-to-back F4s, but until I see how this team looks on the floor, I say a back-to-back NC is unlikely. If that's the case and he can manage to keep most of these young players for a second season, then who wouldn't sign of for that? If he has to reload again and doesn't sniff an NC for a long time, then Cal and the UK program will face a lot of expectation pressure. Having to rebuild just about every year and only getting to -4 will eventually not be good enough. If he sprinkles in an NC every 2 to 3 years, then again, who wouldn't sign up for that. It will be very interesting to see how UK does over the next 2 to 4 years.

 

[caw]

I can't disagree with most of that.

Bennett or Jefferson will dictate the potential of this coming UK team.

If they can get one of those, their starting five will be pretty darn good again and they will have two bench players. They still won't have a backup PG or SG, but will have a very solid frontcourt. If Bennett they likely start Poythress, Bennett, Noel with Cauley coming in for Noel and Wiltjer for Poythress. Either Poythress or Noel could shift to the 4 to take out Bennett. If it's Jefferson then I'm not sure who the 3 is and who the 4 is between him and Poythress, but it shouldn't make a difference.

If they can't get one of those two (or someone like Pollard) they go 6 deep. I'm not sure if Cauley or Wiltjer starts in this case. Either way they only have the other as a "reliable" player coming off the bench. I would guess Wiltjer starts and Cauley comes off the bench. Solid starting five but nowhere near as good as the last 3 teams. If Wiltjer starts, Noel could shift to the four and take Poythress out or Poythress shifts to the 3 with Noel at the 4 and Wiltjer comes out.

I'm not sure either Wiltjer or Poythress or anyone they are recruiting can defend the 2G position, let alone the PG. I'm a bit surprised UK isn't going after a 2G in this class, not that there are many left, after they missed on Shabazz. They could use a backup guard as they are relying on 2 guards playing all year. If one goes down or gets in foul trouble, they are going to be hurting.

 

[DogMania]

I can't disagree with most of that.

Bennett or Jefferson will dictate the potential of this coming UK team.

If they can get one of those, their starting five will be pretty darn good again and they will have two bench players. They still won't have a backup PG or SG, but will have a very solid frontcourt. If Bennett they likely start Poythress, Bennett, Noel with Cauley coming in for Noel and Wiltjer for Poythress. Either Poythress or Noel could shift to the 4 to take out Bennett. If it's Jefferson then I'm not sure who the 3 is and who the 4 is between him and Poythress, but it shouldn't make a difference.

If they can't get one of those two (or someone like Pollard) they go 6 deep. I'm not sure if Cauley or Wiltjer starts in this case. Either way they only have the other as a "reliable" player coming off the bench. I would guess Wiltjer starts and Cauley comes off the bench. Solid starting five but nowhere near as good as the last 3 teams. If Wiltjer starts, Noel could shift to the four and take Poythress out or Poythress shifts to the 3 with Noel at the 4 and Wiltjer comes out.

I'm not sure either Wiltjer or Poythress or anyone they are recruiting can defend the 2G position, let alone the PG. I'm a bit surprised UK isn't going after a 2G in this class, not that there are many left, after they missed on Shabazz. They could use a backup guard as they are relying on 2 guards playing all year. If one goes down or gets in foul trouble, they are going to be hurting.

I know UK is on Jefferson, as was UConn, but I've not been all that impressed by his game. Seen him a couple times and my reaction is, ehh. He looks like a 3/4 tweener which often works fine at the D1 level depending on the program. Bennett IMO puts UK over the top. Bennett is the type of player that could make a good team dangerous. Jefferson seems like just a nice piece and a likely 3 to 4 year player, but maybe I'm underselling him.

With Noel, Pothress and Goodwin all possible one-and-doners, adding Bennett who also looks like a one-hit-wonder would set them up for another NC run if they mature quick enough and the chemistry works. Now that gets them into a yearly reloading cycle. If they add someone like Jefferson, I'm not so sure they have the horses to win it again. They would likely end up losing Noel, Pothress & Goodwin. The players that would return would be good ones, but not great and they'd have to reload with some bit time talent again to make another run at the championship, but I don't know if that combination would have the horses to do so. But Cal is very good at developing under-the-radar kids as well as those 2nd tier type talent, Doron Lamb for example. Although Doron was highly ranked he was far from a complete player but really developed a more versatile game this past season. Maybe Jefferson is a tier 2 or even better talent that if he stays would blow up big time in his second year. Maybe a bumper crop of talent from 2013 class, along with along with another year of Jefferson, Harrow (I'm assuming he's got at least 2 years of eligibility) , Cauley and whatever other returning players would get the job done.

I must admit. As much as I dislike UK and Cal, I'm fascinated to see how this plays out. My biggest concern was once Cal was able win an NC with a young team that was lead completely by freshman and sophomores, that the flood gates would open for him to reload every year and win bunch of NCs that way. Not saying it will happen every year, but as I mentioned before, who wouldn't want to root for a program that will make -4 just about every season and win a few NCs along the way? I'm not saying winning it all on a regular basis with young players will happen. It has to be the right mix of players and it helps when there aren't many or any elite teams around that given year that are led by few upperclassmen.

Many of us remember the Fab-5 back in the day. As much as I wasn't a UM fan, it was fascinated to see how far they could go. I don't like that a program like UK could end up standing in UConn's way to the championship. That happened 2 years ago and we all know who came out on top. We thought we were going to get a rematch, and if we did, I don't think we would have fared all that well, but it would have been fun to see what would have happened.

I don't know about you guys, but I think I'd be conflicted if what was happening at UK was happening here at UConn. I enjoy getting to know and watching our players grow as long as our team develops into a F-4 and NC contender every few years. I'd feel a tad cheated if we were losing our best players after just one season. I enjoy watching players develop before our eyes into NBA hopefuls. I enjoy beating teams comprised of Burger AAs with a team that is led by less heralded players such as Lamb, Emeka, Hilton, Boone, Ray, etc. Even some of our more heralded players excelled beyond what was expected such as Donyell, Rip and Kemba. Two of those 3 ended up runner up for NPOY.

I'm sure most of us would welcome a Fab-5 hear and watch with wonder how far they could go as youngsters. There's something special about that sort of group, but if UK does this year after year I bet it will lose it's specialness. In fact, I didn't sense all that much wonder with UK's team last season even though they were made up of a group of highly ranked freshman and sophomores. I actually found KU a more compelling story of a team that had zero McD AAs making it all the way to the final game. If they hadn't come out of the gate so poorly in that game, maybe they could have nipped UK in the end if the score was a lot closer.

Now do I want UK to land Bennett or Jefferson? No! I was happy to see Shabazz Muhammad end up at UCLA, which by the way has put together a very nice class of their own. I was surprised he didn't drink the Cal-lade and try to repeat what the prior UK class accomplished. But even missing out on him, if they land Bennett, it would be another impressive back-to-back #1 by a long shot recruiting class for UK.