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Think Alabama will do that too?
Orlando Sentinel: Gators AD Scott Stricklin: Canceling football ‘would shake financial foundation of college athletics’
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Think Alabama will do that too?
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I do think we are approaching a day of day of reckoning for P5 schools. Why would Clemson essentially pay for the privledge or kicking the daylights out of Wake Forest and BC every year? And Arizona State is worried? Suggests this is deeper than just some internet speculation. Notre Dame has stated they won’t be part of a minor league system which is what the P2 will effectively become. A few others have indicated the same but it will be interested to see what happens when push comes to shove. If you look around though you can probably name the 30 P2 members. But there will be a few surprises at the end of the day and in the “last in” list. For example I wouldn’t want to be Missouri or Either Mississippi school. Or Miami who in a sense started all this. Actually I’d guess only 1 sure thing from the ACC. Florida State has really regressed. For the B12 there would be Texas and Oklahoma.
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The problem with these split projections is it opens those schools up to anti-trust lawsuits even more so than they already are.
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Who doesn't Clemson beat lately in conference?
They lost one regular season game in three years...to 4-8 Syracuse. And in the last five years to Cuse, FSU, Pitt..
Since the CFP, Clemson has beaten Ohio State twice, Oklahoma twice and Bama once in the playoffs. Tough team to beat.
Conferences are often cyclical...in the ACC since FSU joined in '92...the champs have been:
FSU............15X
Clemson.....6X
VT................4X
GT...............2X
VA................1X
Wake...........1X
FSU...has had three back to back bad years...was a double digit game winner for the five before that...I think they will rebound under Norvell.
Texas...may someday again be Texas...no reason why they can't win the Big 12.
Interesting concept..about the draw. or lack thereof, in conference play....I tend to think that there is more there than meets the eye.
They lost one regular season game in three years...to 4-8 Syracuse. And in the last five years to Cuse, FSU, Pitt..
Since the CFP, Clemson has beaten Ohio State twice, Oklahoma twice and Bama once in the playoffs. Tough team to beat.
Conferences are often cyclical...in the ACC since FSU joined in '92...the champs have been:
FSU............15X
Clemson.....6X
VT................4X
GT...............2X
VA................1X
Wake...........1X
FSU...has had three back to back bad years...was a double digit game winner for the five before that...I think they will rebound under Norvell.
Texas...may someday again be Texas...no reason why they can't win the Big 12.
Interesting concept..about the draw. or lack thereof, in conference play....I tend to think that there is more there than meets the eye.
CL82
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This is not a bad idea because in all likelihood we may have a working vaccine by then. It also helps by addressing the issue of kids losing a season of eligibility.
One final thought, if football doesn’t happen in the fall, basketball is not going to happen either.
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>LEAD1 & Teamworks paired up for a survey of 100+ FBS ADs "on their concerns, plans and goals in light of the current pandemic". 110 responded (48 Power 5 ADs, 62 Group of 5). Some of the most notable data points (there's lots more via the link):
+ 89% of respondents point to academic progress as a top student-athlete wellness concern
+ 35% indicate their FY21 revenue projections could be negatively impacted by greater than 30%...over 60% point to a 20% hit or more
+ Biggest revenue stream concerns: Donations (75%) & Ticket sales/other revenue from in-person events (74%)
+ G5 leaders are nearly 2x more worried about NCAA distribution revenue than their P5 peers
+ 67% agree or strongly agree with limiting current compensation costs
+ 41% agree or strongly agree with limiting the facilities arms race
+ 41% of P5s have a reserve of some type, only 26% of G5s
+ 40% approve or strongly approve the high earners in their departments should voluntarily offer to make personal sacrifices during this period
+ Top outcomes: 67% says lower enrollments, 53% think a slow down of the arms race, 53% point to a decrease in live event interest
+ Morale & culture is the most notable concern beyond financial ramifications<<
+ 89% of respondents point to academic progress as a top student-athlete wellness concern
+ 35% indicate their FY21 revenue projections could be negatively impacted by greater than 30%...over 60% point to a 20% hit or more
+ Biggest revenue stream concerns: Donations (75%) & Ticket sales/other revenue from in-person events (74%)
+ G5 leaders are nearly 2x more worried about NCAA distribution revenue than their P5 peers
+ 67% agree or strongly agree with limiting current compensation costs
+ 41% agree or strongly agree with limiting the facilities arms race
+ 41% of P5s have a reserve of some type, only 26% of G5s
+ 40% approve or strongly approve the high earners in their departments should voluntarily offer to make personal sacrifices during this period
+ Top outcomes: 67% says lower enrollments, 53% think a slow down of the arms race, 53% point to a decrease in live event interest
+ Morale & culture is the most notable concern beyond financial ramifications<<
Redding Husky
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If you’re a fan of Northwestern, Iowa State, or Arizona, you will have no interest in watching Alabama against Florida State. The only people watching the 32 teams will be the fans of those 32 teams.
People will lose interest once their team is left behind.
Fans of those schools don't watch now. Look at the ratings for CFB.
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More people watch on TV than ever...and they are watching Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Clemson, et al...
National fans are watching marquis matchups...
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I think this point is irrelevant given the scale of the economic impact here. Yeah, Georgia State doesn’t get a 1M game with Georgia Tech? But given the much bigger issues like wholesale tuition refunds this is a nothing burger.
why are you quoting me to agree with me?
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A couple of interesting comments on the subject.
"When this is over, schools in the American Athletic Conference might wonder if it’s wise to have a league that stretches from Texas to the eastern seaboard. That wouldn’t seem as perilous with the kind of TV money Power 5 leagues command, but the AAC makes only a fraction of that TV money."
"The ACC has its media rights locked up by ESPN through 2036, so it should feel secure. But ACC leaders should ask Notre Dame again if it would like to add football to their conference and become a full member. The Fighting Irish cherish their football independence, but when one of the first solutions thrown out during the shutdown has been “play only conference games,” that can’t make anyone in South Bend comfortable."
"When this is over, schools in the American Athletic Conference might wonder if it’s wise to have a league that stretches from Texas to the eastern seaboard. That wouldn’t seem as perilous with the kind of TV money Power 5 leagues command, but the AAC makes only a fraction of that TV money."
"The ACC has its media rights locked up by ESPN through 2036, so it should feel secure. But ACC leaders should ask Notre Dame again if it would like to add football to their conference and become a full member. The Fighting Irish cherish their football independence, but when one of the first solutions thrown out during the shutdown has been “play only conference games,” that can’t make anyone in South Bend comfortable."
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Who are you quoting? Ralph Russo?
And I think in the long run Temple and maybe Cincy end up going independent. It really depends in part how well we do and that can't be judged for a few years....and if the B12 holds together after 2024 which I think it does, but maybe in a new contract structure where Oklahoma and Texas get outsized $$ while Texas Tech and the others like KState get lesser money...under a formula that recognizes the not all members are actually equal in starpower.
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CL82
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Really? I feel like it is still strong. These are from 2018-2019:
They are all early season too. (That's what first came up in google.)
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What those ratings show I think is that casual fans will watch what are perceived as “big games.” ND Michigan does a 4. Northwestern-Purdue does a 1. Big names draw. Marginal ones draw many fewer viewers.
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I wouldn't bet on that happening.
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No, Andy Staples in The Athletic.
Could the financial impact of a canceled season reopen realignment talks?
Dear Andy: Could the financial impact of a canceled season reopen realignment talks?
It depends on your standing prior to the pandemic, but a number of college sports self-analyses seem certain to happen in the coming months.
theathletic.com
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Where did you get the Nov 17 date. That’s would mean they started seeing cases in October. meaning the virus made the jump in September. I’d like to see the document on this.
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Should this virus be seasonal, you can possibly start with fans, but by October it’s virus season starting.
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Ralph D. Russo @ralphDrussoAP 2h
Athletics for the most part doesn't fund the university much. So why would a college president, leading an institution whose mission is to educate young people and secondarily to keep them safe, have any motivation to allow the athletic department to rush the football team back?
Ralph D. Russo@ralphDrussoAP 2h
Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoAP) | Twitter
The other thing is in pro sports, the players and leagues are in a partnership. If MLB wants to play in a bio-dome in Arizona, the players have to sign off and might because the stakes ($$) are really high for them too. But players aren't partners in college sports.
Ralph D. Russo @ralphDrussoAP 2h
Universities, athletic departments and sports programs play the role of caretakers to players. If an MLB or NBA player agrees to a return then gets sick, well that player had a say in the decision. If a college team comes back and players get sick, the school owns that failure.
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IDK - there is motivation for a student athlete to play and take the risk. Every athlete has a window of peak physical ability and opportunity. A lot of things need to be figured out, but I could see a scenario where fall college sports are restarted in October with shortened schedules and kids are given the opportunity to redshirt if they don't feel comfortable playing under these conditions. Basically an extra year of eligibility for all kids that dont want to play this fall. I think you'll see a ton of kids that return in these circumstances if the current trends continue which has shown this pandemic to not really impacting people under age 30 (there are of course exceptions, but those exceptions have been more akin to the flu scale).
But I don't think there is any return to college sports if we can't get this Abbott Lab machines on each campus for regular testing and we see some real progress on a vaccine and/or reliable treatment. College presidents will want an environment where there is some ability to monitor with precision unlike what we have at this moment.
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It isn’t about the players decisions though. It is about the Universities’. If you are the president of Alabama and the football team comes back while students are out then the team has an outbreak, it is on you. Same scenario in the NFL and the league gets castigated but can pass off some blame to the players. It is one situation where there absolutely is a difference. In fact I could see a player or 3 saying “screw it. I am not playing now.” And if it is a middle class white kid, as it may well be, it will become a rallying point.
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It's not the player's decision? Wow - who knew?
We'll see where we are medically. Obviously if we have no medical progress relative to where we are now then we aren't playing college ball this fall. We need a real medical breakthrough and then the question becomes in an environment where a medical breakthrough is being rolled out is how long do you wait until green light a return. I don't see us restarting college sports this fall if all we can offer is the current treatments (hydroxychloroquine and ventilators). There has to be a vaccine roll out in process. The rollout will probably in stages over many months with certain high risk types going first. For instance, to vaccinate 330 million Americans we would have to administer 2,750,000 vaccinations a day for four months to reach 100%. Not to mention manufacturing the stuff or the risk of giving 100% of the population a brand new vaccine almost simultaneously.
I do think there will be a super majority of kids that will want to play (in games w/o fans) even under the current medical environment because so far its pretty clear this is not having much of an impact on people under 30. Kids will have a hard time giving up this fall.
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Redding Husky
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If we get down to 32, I'm certainly not going to root for Penn State (the only Northeastern school to make the cut) or Texas (I live in Texas). To hell with them. I'll have zero skin in the game.
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As long as fans of NC State and Purdue think they have a shot at a national championship (no matter how small), they're involved. But if you go to 32 and those fans are locked out, they'll go fishing or just watch the NFL. They won't give a rat's ass about LSU vs. Stanford.
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We are already down to 32. Hell, less than 32 who have a legitimate shot of winning. Yet, we still watch. Fans in states with no NFl team watch the NFL. Fans of schools with no shot of sniffing the playoffs watch now. That won't change on a large scale.
I believe you if you say you won't watch. You will not be in the majority on that one.
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NC State fans and Purdue fans, the sane ones, don't think that they have any shot at the national championship.....just like Army, Wake, Duke, Rutgers, UConn, etc., etc.
You think that fans of an FCS program never turn on a FBS game?
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For all the hoopla the National Championship game has been a wash ratingswise relative to the old BCS championship. Except for the first year the ratings are similar. And anecdotally there is not that much buzz. In fact it hasn’t done as well as some of the BCS games. It has ranged from a high of 18.6 in the first year to a low of 13.8 in 2019. Last season it rebounded a bit to 14.2 or so. The last 5 BCS games did 17.2, 15.3, 14.0 ( all SEC Ala-LSU) 15.1 and 14.8..Where there has been a significant fall off is in the New Years Day games. The 2 semi-finals draw about as well as top bowl games did but the no playoff games have dropped quite a bit. For comparison the ratings for the Super Bowl are in the 40s. Last five years for NCAA Basketball ranged from 9.2low to 16 high. the 2 lowest games have been Villanova finals, 9.2 and 10.6. So much for Villanova being a national draw FWIW. Bottom line I think is the CFB National Championship, while not exactly a bust, hasn’t really caught the public imagination, like it was sold to do. And I’m not sure it has helped the sport overall by making it the focus of the season. When you eliminate 80% of the teams by week 2 people lose interest Not gain.
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