Orlando Sentinel: Gators AD Scott Stricklin: Canceling football ‘would shake financial foundation of college athletics’

[DarthGrumpy]

The sheer volume of people involved in major college fotball games will male the healthcare professional very nervous. While Covid-19 should make its way trhough the big metros over the 3 months (end of June), it will likley be making a slow crawl through the smaller cities and rural areas like Tuscaloosa and Amarillo, Bloomington, Stillwater, etc. during the summer. Those cities likely do not have the medical facilities to help their own residents, never an additional 30,000 students when they move back into town. Not to mention the effects of a second wave of infections as a result of cramming 100K people into Texas Memorial Stadium and then having those folks scatter to the 4 course of the US afterwards.

 

[freescooter]

Pure guess on my part but assuming the pandemic is under control by June I don’t see a summer season being at all viable. Late June at best before life returns to normal and if we actually succeed in flattening the curve it might actually be longer before normal life fully returns. My guess is that the season gets moved back a few weeks and ends up as maybe 10 games. We could actually get really screwed since teams are more likely to play their league games.
On the baby NFL I do think that is going to happen and this could speed it along. Though I also think it is doomed to failure. It will involve paying players and all manner of nonsense. I could even see Alabama trading their back up left guard to Texas for a future scholarship though they won’t exactly call it that. They’ll say he transferred. LOL. But I also suspect that it will ultimately fail as virtually all non-nfl minor leagues have since the AFL merger. All it would take would be a few NFL Saturday games. And given the new 17 game schedule that is far from impossible. As for the others I could actually see a return to rationality. The BCs and Indiana’s and Wake Forests of the world stop spending millions chasing what they’ll never get and return to playing college football at a good level against regional opponents.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Waquoit]

"Said one AD: "If there’s no (football) season, we will be duck***”

That's our edge and we need to take advantage of it. If there's no season, we save money!

 

[UConnTrumbull]

What about making college football a spring sport for next season. Better than losing millions, no?

 

[huskymedic]

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Ohio State has moved all of its summer classes to online, I suspect many other universities will do the same. Some are regarding this as the first domino to fall in eventual postponement/cancellation of fall sports.

That may be the case, but I'm hesitant to jump to that conclusion now for a few reasons:
- Students enrolled in summer classes generally have made or are currently making their housing decisions right now. Therefore, this information is necessary for them to have now.
- The amount of summer classes is far less than the general school year, and is more easily completed online.
- This allows professors the time to tailor their class structure to an online model.
- This does *not* preclude athletes from moving into dorms for late July/early August if it's deemed safe to do so.
- This actually increases the viability of a return to normalcy on campus in the fall semester as it provides more time for proper maintenance/cleaning/infrastructure planning to handle everyone returning in fall if it's deemed safe.
- No decision on fall sports needs to be made at this time. That decision can easily be made in two months on June 1 when there's much more information on where we stand nationally. That would give teams/coaches about two more months before anyone would realistically be back on campus.
- No decision on NCAA fall sports will be made prior to NBA, NHL, and MLB making decisions on their current seasons.

Knee-jerk decisions for events far down the line serve no purpose. If you cancel everything now based on panic, it only further infuriates the public and reduces the chances they comply with necessary physical distancing orders that are vital right now. If you tell everyone now that the seasons are going forward, it only fuels doubt. Logic and rational decision-making are even more important than normal in times like these.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[freescooter]

Think Alabama will do that too?

 

[freescooter]

I do think we are approaching a day of day of reckoning for P5 schools. Why would Clemson essentially pay for the privledge or kicking the daylights out of Wake Forest and BC every year? And Arizona State is worried? Suggests this is deeper than just some internet speculation. Notre Dame has stated they won’t be part of a minor league system which is what the P2 will effectively become. A few others have indicated the same but it will be interested to see what happens when push comes to shove. If you look around though you can probably name the 30 P2 members. But there will be a few surprises at the end of the day and in the “last in” list. For example I wouldn’t want to be Missouri or Either Mississippi school. Or Miami who in a sense started all this. Actually I’d guess only 1 sure thing from the ACC. Florida State has really regressed. For the B12 there would be Texas and Oklahoma.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

The problem with these split projections is it opens those schools up to anti-trust lawsuits even more so than they already are.

 

[billybud]

Who doesn't Clemson beat lately in conference?

They lost one regular season game in three years...to 4-8 Syracuse. And in the last five years to Cuse, FSU, Pitt..

Since the CFP, Clemson has beaten Ohio State twice, Oklahoma twice and Bama once in the playoffs. Tough team to beat.

Conferences are often cyclical...in the ACC since FSU joined in '92...the champs have been:

FSU............15X
Clemson.....6X
VT................4X
GT...............2X
VA................1X
Wake...........1X

FSU...has had three back to back bad years...was a double digit game winner for the five before that...I think they will rebound under Norvell.

Texas...may someday again be Texas...no reason why they can't win the Big 12.

Interesting concept..about the draw. or lack thereof, in conference play....I tend to think that there is more there than meets the eye.

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame is indy...but not for the money...they are losing money by being an indy.....and they don't care.

 

[CL82]

What about making college football a spring sport for next season. Better than losing millions, no?

This is not a bad idea because in all likelihood we may have a working vaccine by then. It also helps by addressing the issue of kids losing a season of eligibility.

One final thought, if football doesn’t happen in the fall, basketball is not going to happen either.

 

[huskymedic]

>LEAD1 & Teamworks paired up for a survey of 100+ FBS ADs "on their concerns, plans and goals in light of the current pandemic". 110 responded (48 Power 5 ADs, 62 Group of 5). Some of the most notable data points (there's lots more via the link):

+ 89% of respondents point to academic progress as a top student-athlete wellness concern
+ 35% indicate their FY21 revenue projections could be negatively impacted by greater than 30%...over 60% point to a 20% hit or more
+ Biggest revenue stream concerns: Donations (75%) & Ticket sales/other revenue from in-person events (74%)
+ G5 leaders are nearly 2x more worried about NCAA distribution revenue than their P5 peers
+ 67% agree or strongly agree with limiting current compensation costs
+ 41% agree or strongly agree with limiting the facilities arms race
+ 41% of P5s have a reserve of some type, only 26% of G5s
+ 40% approve or strongly approve the high earners in their departments should voluntarily offer to make personal sacrifices during this period
+ Top outcomes: 67% says lower enrollments, 53% think a slow down of the arms race, 53% point to a decrease in live event interest
+ Morale & culture is the most notable concern beyond financial ramifications<<

 

[Redding Husky]

To you. It’ll likely work because recruiting will change. The best players would go to those 32 schools and then there would be everyone else. Why would anyone watch the everyone else? Unless they were fans of a particular school

If you’re a fan of Northwestern, Iowa State, or Arizona, you will have no interest in watching Alabama against Florida State. The only people watching the 32 teams will be the fans of those 32 teams.

People will lose interest once their team is left behind.

 

[polycom]

If you’re a fan of Northwestern, Iowa State, or Arizona, you will have no interest in watching Alabama against Florida State. The only people watching the 32 teams will be the fans of those 32 teams.

People will lose interest once their team is left behind.

Fans of those schools don't watch now. Look at the ratings for CFB.

 

[billybud]

Fans of those schools don't watch now. Look at the ratings for CFB.

More people watch on TV than ever...and they are watching Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Clemson, et al...

National fans are watching marquis matchups...

 

[Exit 4]

I think this point is irrelevant given the scale of the economic impact here. Yeah, Georgia State doesn’t get a 1M game with Georgia Tech? But given the much bigger issues like wholesale tuition refunds this is a nothing burger.

 

[polycom]

More people watch on TV than ever...and they are watching Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Clemson, et al...

National fans are watching marquis matchups...

why are you quoting me to agree with me?

 

[Nostical]

A couple of interesting comments on the subject.

"When this is over, schools in the American Athletic Conference might wonder if it’s wise to have a league that stretches from Texas to the eastern seaboard. That wouldn’t seem as perilous with the kind of TV money Power 5 leagues command, but the AAC makes only a fraction of that TV money."

"The ACC has its media rights locked up by ESPN through 2036, so it should feel secure. But ACC leaders should ask Notre Dame again if it would like to add football to their conference and become a full member. The Fighting Irish cherish their football independence, but when one of the first solutions thrown out during the shutdown has been “play only conference games,” that can’t make anyone in South Bend comfortable."

 

[Exit 4]

A couple of interesting comments on the subject.

"When this is over, schools in the American Athletic Conference might wonder if it’s wise to have a league that stretches from Texas to the eastern seaboard. That wouldn’t seem as perilous with the kind of TV money Power 5 leagues command, but the AAC makes only a fraction of that TV money."

"The ACC has its media rights locked up by ESPN through 2036, so it should feel secure. But ACC leaders should ask Notre Dame again if it would like to add football to their conference and become a full member. The Fighting Irish cherish their football independence, but when one of the first solutions thrown out during the shutdown has been “play only conference games,” that can’t make anyone in South Bend comfortable."

Who are you quoting? Ralph Russo?

And I think in the long run Temple and maybe Cincy end up going independent. It really depends in part how well we do and that can't be judged for a few years....and if the B12 holds together after 2024 which I think it does, but maybe in a new contract structure where Oklahoma and Texas get outsized $$ while Texas Tech and the others like KState get lesser money...under a formula that recognizes the not all members are actually equal in starpower.

 

[CL82]

Fans of those schools don't watch now. Look at the ratings for CFB.

Really? I feel like it is still strong. These are from 2018-2019:

They are all early season too. (That's what first came up in google.)