Oregon St (11) @ UCLA (7) - 2/17/20

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I don't think Colorado is really any more dangerous than those 4 you've written off. Utah is ahead of them, Washington St. is tied w/ them and Washington is 1 game behind. I think all 4 of those teams have also had some near misses. UW specifically took USC and UCLA to OT on the road, were within 1 score of Arizona St. in the closing seconds in Tempe...and also beat Colorado by 9.

I went to the Adia Barnes show last night. While there wasn't anything overwhelmingly notable, it is interesting that Adia agrees with the more general take. When asked about underdogs in the PAC tourney (i.e. the bottom 6 - USC, Cal, the Washingtons, Utah and Colorado), she said she expects USC to pull one upset (Mark's a "great coach") and gave Colorado the only other chance for an upset. Obviously in her opinion.

She thinks both USC and Washington have good upside for "next year" (from that group), of course who knows really.

She also said that playing the mountain schools in Utah and Colorado is harder than most folks think, and is very pleased to be doing Utah first, even though she said crowds are generally fairly awful.

And yes, Arizona filled out the paperwork to be a host should they receive one of the top 16 seeds.

 

[nwhoopfan]

She thinks both USC and Washington have good upside for "next year" (from that group), of course who knows really.

I'd like to know what Adia sees as upside for UW. Losing 2 of their top 4 scorers, including #1 by a country mile, on an offensively challenged team. Unlike USC they don't have several freshmen who are playing at a high level this year.

 

[bballnut90]

"ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them."

As of today ASU is the 5th team in the PAC standings. So your projection about the future could be correct but the present shows ASU as the clear 5 in the league and OSU as the clear 6th. Both OSU and ASU have similar closing schedules with one difficult game remaining with Stanford at home for ASU and on the road for OSU.

If each team takes care of business and performs as expected that standing should hold to the end of the season.

Barring a tournament upset which is a big assumption the current top four should form the PAC tournament final four with a Oregon Stanford final.

Very valid points. I do think OSU is the better team despite being lower than ASU but I dont have a lot to base it off of other than eye test and the 2 early losses for ASU.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I'd like to know what Adia sees as upside for UW. Losing 2 of their top 4 scorers, including #1 by a country mile, on an offensively challenged team. Unlike USC they don't have several freshmen who are playing at a high level this year.

She used "future", not next year, actually. The question she was originally asked was about the motion offense, by the host who wasn't used to it and whether she thought Washington would abandon it when they got better personnel. She said no, that was the style that the Washington coach prefers, and said something about expecting her to have success with it. This was in the part of the show where she discusses the games that have just been played, so the focus was really on that. The USC comment was in a different part of the show.

 

[nwhoopfan]

She used "future", not next year, actually. The question she was originally asked was about the motion offense, by the host who wasn't used to it and whether she thought Washington would abandon it when they got better personnel. She said no, that was the style that the Washington coach prefers, and said something about expecting her to have success with it. This was in the part of the show where she discusses the games that have just been played, so the focus was really on that. The USC comment was in a different part of the show.

Thanks for the additional comments.

Style without players to execute it doesn't mean much. Wynn's recruiting has not been good, there's no reasonable reason for me to believe any significant improvement is coming any time soon. Posters here, now Coach Barnes getting in on it, keep saying just be patient and everything will be fine. I can't help but think some might have a vested interest in keeping UW down and don't want a change there. At least on a UW board I visit (and one vocal Husky fan on Rebkell) the tone is quite pessimistic and they just don't see Jody ever turning it around.

 

[azfan]

Very valid points. I do think OSU is the better team despite being lower than ASU but I dont have a lot to base it off of other than eye test and the 2 early losses for ASU.

I can definitely relate to your point of eye test although I disagree. Many times my eye test runs counter to things like record and head to head.

ASU beat OSU fairly handily at home in Tempe and really should have beaten the Beavers in Corvallis. So head to head I can see that while the two teams are close ASU really has out performed the Beavers in head to head meetings.

ASU also has beaten Oregon while OSU has not. However if looking at their performances against other teams in the PAC there is support for your eye. Particularly this past weekend when at home ASU had their hands full with WSU and UW two weaker teams.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Here's what I'd say: OSU has more talent, ASU has more grit. When the OSU talent is off, they don't seem to have much margin for error anymore. ASU can try a lot of different combinations, plays, players, etc. As the season has worn on, some of OSU's shooting talent (esp. Goodman and Tudor) has gone missing, and Slocum, Jones, and Pivec aren't quite at the level of talent or athleticism that Ionescu, Hebard, and Sabally are such that they can just take over games by themselves. The OSU three-headed monster needs more help, and they haven't been getting it lately, esp. now that Brown is out. It was abundantly clear to me the drop-off from Brown to Maddie Washington in the UCLA game. Washington grits hard but lacks either the height or the shooting talent to post up effectively alongside Jones.

 

[WestCoast]

Here's what I'd say: OSU has more talent, ASU has more grit. When the OSU talent is off, they don't seem to have much margin for error anymore. ASU can try a lot of different combinations, plays, players, etc. As the season has worn on, some of OSU's shooting talent (esp. Goodman and Tudor) has gone missing, and Slocum, Jones, and Pivec aren't quite at the level of talent or athleticism that Ionescu, Hebard, and Sabally are such that they can just take over games by themselves. The OSU three-headed monster needs more help, and they haven't been getting it lately, esp. now that Brown is out. It was abundantly clear to me the drop-off from Brown to Maddie Washington in the UCLA game. Washington grits hard but lacks either the height or the shooting talent to post up effectively alongside Jones.

I would agree. ASU has developed its depth and can wear teams without depth down with its substitutions.

Nobody else in the nation has a Big Three quite like Oregon, especially with two 6'4" WNBA Top 8 picks to supplement perhaps the most productive player in NCAA WBB history. While one or even two of Oregon's Big Three can be off statistically for a game, Oregon has still had enough to pull out wins. That hasn't been the case for OSU during PAC-12 play. OSU has led at the half in five of its seven losses, letting winnable games (USC) and signature wins (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) slip away in disheartening fashion.