Oregon St (11) @ UCLA (7) - 2/17/20

[Crazyhorse]

I'm not a homer fan for either conference and I have watched all the relevant teams extensively.

Any game between the ACC top 2 and the Pac-12 top 5 could go either way. But the median level of play for the top 4 Pac-12 teams has been higher than that of FSU and Louisville. I would include Oregon State in that if not for the unfortunate season-ending injury to Kennedy Brown.

I agree, well said.

 

[TheFarmFan]

What is the head to head ACC-Pac 12 record this year, I cant remember if those conferences even played each other?

Unless I missed any, Winning and Losing Matchups are:
Louisville neutral vs. Oregon
Oregon @ Syracuse
Stanford neutral vs. Syracuse
Oregon St. @ Miami
Miami vs. Washington St.
USC vs. Virginia
UCLA vs. Virginia

So that's 5 for the PAC and 2 for ACC. Other than the Louisville neutral win over Oregon, not seeing much argument that the ACC is equal or better. OTOH, the top half of the ACC seems to have avoided the PAC in OOC play, so it's a bit hard to tell...

 

[Plebe]

What is the head to head ACC-Pac 12 record this year, I cant remember if those conferences even played each other?

Very much in favor of the Pac-12, but conference head-to-head is generally a poor metric because it all comes down to the individual matchups. Most of the better ACC teams didn't play any games against Pac-12 teams. Syracuse lost to Oregon and Stanford, and Virginia lost to UCLA and USC. Miami lost to Oregon State but beat Washington State.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Colorado and USC are quite dangerous but fringe NCAA teams. USC has wins over Oregon State and UCLA, Colorado has come painfully close to beating Stanford twice and UCLA.

Beyond that the competition isn't very strong (Cal, Utah, Washington, Washington State).

I don't think Colorado is really any more dangerous than those 4 you've written off. Utah is ahead of them, Washington St. is tied w/ them and Washington is 1 game behind. I think all 4 of those teams have also had some near misses. UW specifically took USC and UCLA to OT on the road, were within 1 score of Arizona St. in the closing seconds in Tempe...and also beat Colorado by 9.

 

[Mulder]

Attendance: 5,994 .

Capacity: 12,819.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Attendance: 5,994 .

Capacity: 12,819.

Interesting. Slightly more than against Oregon on Friday (5912). Was this an ESPN Big Monday bump? There was recently some talk about how the Ionescu factor was drawing much bigger than average crowds for various road games for Ducks opponents.

 

[Plebe]

Succinct summary, and one I (alas) agree with. I was hoping OSU would pull it out vs. UCLA because now they will really want to prove themselves against us on Friday.

Next weekend will be a war in two parts for Stanford.

 

[bballnut90]

I don't think Colorado is really any more dangerous than those 4 you've written off. Utah is ahead of them, Washington St. is tied w/ them and Washington is 1 game behind. I think all 4 of those teams have also had some near misses. UW specifically took USC and UCLA to OT on the road, were within 1 score of Arizona St. in the closing seconds in Tempe...and also beat Colorado by 9.

I could see UW being grouped in as a dangerous team, but Colorado had 2 games won vs Stanford and lost on buzzer beaters (the most recent one a 40 footer) and almost beat UCLA too. That's 3 near wins against the top 5 for Colorado, just 1 for UW. If I'm a top PAC 12 team, Colorado is the main bottom feeder I'd want to avoid in the Pac 12 tourney.

 

[DefenseBB]

As noted by @bballnut90 and which I agree, Oregon is way ahead of the rest given the roll they are on these past 4 weeks. 2nd place is sort of a toss up. It should be Stanford based on talent and coaching but they are struggling with player injuries, former starters coming back and needing time to get back in the flow and frankly too much talent to get a consistent rotation. Arizona has been hot but in watching almost all their conference games, they are playing above their weight class IMO and will eventually level off an finish 4th, probably having to play ASU. OSU may have actually be doing themselves a favor if they finish 6th, avoiding Oregon until a final game vs. UCLA/Stanford who they probably match up much better with and won't be as beaten up. So to be clear, to me, it's 1. Oregon, 2. UCLA (noted by the easier schedule) 3. Stanford, 4. Arizona, 5. Arizona State 6. Oregon State, 7. USC 8. Wash St (for my fine colleague @nwhoopfan ) 9. Colorado, 10. Utah 11. Wash 12. California

 

[domerduck]

Attendance: 5,994 .

Capacity: 12,819.

Awesome...that's 77 more than the Friday night Duck game. It looked like a big crowd on TV. The two biggest crowds in years, hopefully they get some big crowds their last home weekend against Colorado and Utah, plus when they host. Last time they hosted 2 years ago, they only had 1,860 folks when they beat Creighton at home to get to the Sweet 16 on their way to the Elite 8. Last year they didn't host, but still beat Maryland in College Park.

Cori Close and her teams deserve fan support as she has brought her teams to at least the sweet sixteen the last 4 years. Her 2015 team won the WNIT, but only hosted 3 of the 6 games because none of their crowds were more than 750 people. Maybe they have finally turned it around so they can get fan support.

 

[Mulder]

Awesome...that's 77 more than the Friday night Duck game. It looked like a big crowd on TV. The two biggest crowds in years, hopefully they get some big crowds their last home weekend against Colorado and Utah, plus when they host. Last time they hosted 2 years ago, they only had 1,860 folks when they beat Creighton at home to get to the Sweet 16 on their way to the Elite 8. Last year they didn't host, but still beat Maryland in College Park.

Cori Close and her teams deserve fan support as she has brought her teams to at least the sweet sixteen the last 4 years. Her 2015 team won the WNIT, but only hosted 3 of the 6 games because none of their crowds were more than 750 people. Maybe they have finally turned it around so they can get fan support.

The fans were treated to an exciting, high scoring game with 5 minutes of overtime. As it was a win, they more than got their monies worth.
Hopefully they be encouraged to attend future games and bring friends and family with them.

 

[Jorislove]

It's really Oregon, the next grouping of 4, and then everyone else with some dangerous teams thrown in. The only competitive games UO had were the Arizona schools weekend and vs. Oregon State, but the OSU game wasn't that competitive at the end.

Stanford needed 2 last second 3s vs Colorado to pull off the win the other day. UCLA also almost lost to Cal, Oregon State, and Colorado. Plus they did lose to USC and got throttled by Arizona. Oregon State has barely lost to UCLA (OT), Arizona (OT), and Stanford (3pt). The Stanford/UCLA/OSU/Arizona contingent are all very even teams IMO.

After that, ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them.

Colorado and USC are quite dangerous but fringe NCAA teams. USC has wins over Oregon State and UCLA, Colorado has come painfully close to beating Stanford twice and UCLA.

Beyond that the competition isn't very strong (Cal, Utah, Washington, Washington State).

Doing an eye ball test, Oregon is a step up from everyone else.
With that said they haven't played completely great in a lot of games, which is crazy. I can believe Kelly Graves when he says they don't always show up. A lot of them they have only showed up for a half and the other team keeps it close the next half (or even passes them in scoring but can't get ahead of the 1st half lead.).

 

[nwhoopfan]

7. USC 8. Wash St (for my fine colleague @nwhoopfan ) 9. Colorado, 10. Utah 11. Wash 12. California

That bottom 6 is REALLY hard to figure out. As noted Colorado has thrown a scare into Stanford and UCLA, but lost to a bunch of teams they probably should've been able to beat. Colorado won @ Utah to start the conference schedule. After that, over the next 11 games Utah went 5-6 and Colorado went 2-9, playing the same schedule, and included a 15 point win @ Colorado. The Buffs clearly had a better weekend than Utah did, but over the previous month+ the Utes were very clearly the better team. Just before this Utah swept the Washington schools on the road (handily) while Colorado got swept. Utah @ #8 might seem crazy but I just can't put Colorado ahead of them and the Utes absolutely demolished the Cougs in Pullman (don't let the final score fool you, they had them doubled up in the 2nd half). Maybe just put USC at #7 and then a 5 way tie for #8.

 

[azfan]

It's really Oregon, the next grouping of 4, and then everyone else with some dangerous teams thrown in. The only competitive games UO had were the Arizona schools weekend and vs. Oregon State, but the OSU game wasn't that competitive at the end.

Stanford needed 2 last second 3s vs Colorado to pull off the win the other day. UCLA also almost lost to Cal, Oregon State, and Colorado. Plus they did lose to USC and got throttled by Arizona. Oregon State has barely lost to UCLA (OT), Arizona (OT), and Stanford (3pt). The Stanford/UCLA/OSU/Arizona contingent are all very even teams IMO.

After that, ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them.

Colorado and USC are quite dangerous but fringe NCAA teams. USC has wins over Oregon State and UCLA, Colorado has come painfully close to beating Stanford twice and UCLA.

Beyond that the competition isn't very strong (Cal, Utah, Washington, Washington State).

"ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them."

As of today ASU is the 5th team in the PAC standings. So your projection about the future could be correct but the present shows ASU as the clear 5 in the league and OSU as the clear 6th. Both OSU and ASU have similar closing schedules with one difficult game remaining with Stanford at home for ASU and on the road for OSU.

If each team takes care of business and performs as expected that standing should hold to the end of the season.

Barring a tournament upset which is a big assumption the current top four should form the PAC tournament final four with a Oregon Stanford final.

 

[DefenseBB]

That bottom 6 is REALLY hard to figure out. As noted Colorado has thrown a scare into Stanford and UCLA, but lost to a bunch of teams they probably should've been able to beat. Colorado won @ Utah to start the conference schedule. After that, over the next 11 games Utah went 5-6 and Colorado went 2-9, playing the same schedule, and included a 15 point win @ Colorado. The Buffs clearly had a better weekend than Utah did, but over the previous month+ the Utes were very clearly the better team. Just before this Utah swept the Washington schools on the road (handily) while Colorado got swept. Utah @ #8 might seem crazy but I just can't put Colorado ahead of them and the Utes absolutely demolished the Cougs in Pullman (don't let the final score fool you, they had them doubled up in the 2nd half). Maybe just put USC at #7 and then a 5 way tie for #8.

Your Utah statement is correct, with both The Buffs and Utes playing the exact same schedule with 4 games left of the Arizona schools and the Bay Area schools, you would expect 3 losses each. Leaving Utah ahead of Colorado.
All the metrics point to Colorado being the better team, to wit:
Tm........Col......Utah
RPI........77........111
NCRPI..53.........195
NCSoS..288......286
To me, both played ridiculously easy OOC with Colorado’s cupcakes winning more of their games over even worse opponents than Utah’s
I get the support all the Left Coast fans have for their fellow teams however, I and others with knowledge of the schedules will not be swayed by the “eye test” of close games of conference foes and unsupported statements like, Colorado/Utah would win 20+ games in other conferences until they play the other Big schools in those conferences to support these statements. You have to win games against good competition to earn your way in the NCAAT.
I mean @triadduke pointed out how hard Virginia made their OOC and is #51 RPI ahead of both your teams with an #51 RPI and an 11-14 record. I hope they build upon that next year and win some of those games (except against UConn). I can rally around what Tina is doing there. JR, Adia and Lynne, not so much until they improve their OOC...

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I don't think Colorado is really any more dangerous than those 4 you've written off. Utah is ahead of them, Washington St. is tied w/ them and Washington is 1 game behind. I think all 4 of those teams have also had some near misses. UW specifically took USC and UCLA to OT on the road, were within 1 score of Arizona St. in the closing seconds in Tempe...and also beat Colorado by 9.

I went to the Adia Barnes show last night. While there wasn't anything overwhelmingly notable, it is interesting that Adia agrees with the more general take. When asked about underdogs in the PAC tourney (i.e. the bottom 6 - USC, Cal, the Washingtons, Utah and Colorado), she said she expects USC to pull one upset (Mark's a "great coach") and gave Colorado the only other chance for an upset. Obviously in her opinion.

She thinks both USC and Washington have good upside for "next year" (from that group), of course who knows really.

She also said that playing the mountain schools in Utah and Colorado is harder than most folks think, and is very pleased to be doing Utah first, even though she said crowds are generally fairly awful.

And yes, Arizona filled out the paperwork to be a host should they receive one of the top 16 seeds.

 

[nwhoopfan]

She thinks both USC and Washington have good upside for "next year" (from that group), of course who knows really.

I'd like to know what Adia sees as upside for UW. Losing 2 of their top 4 scorers, including #1 by a country mile, on an offensively challenged team. Unlike USC they don't have several freshmen who are playing at a high level this year.

 

[bballnut90]

"ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them."

As of today ASU is the 5th team in the PAC standings. So your projection about the future could be correct but the present shows ASU as the clear 5 in the league and OSU as the clear 6th. Both OSU and ASU have similar closing schedules with one difficult game remaining with Stanford at home for ASU and on the road for OSU.

If each team takes care of business and performs as expected that standing should hold to the end of the season.

Barring a tournament upset which is a big assumption the current top four should form the PAC tournament final four with a Oregon Stanford final.

Very valid points. I do think OSU is the better team despite being lower than ASU but I dont have a lot to base it off of other than eye test and the 2 early losses for ASU.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I'd like to know what Adia sees as upside for UW. Losing 2 of their top 4 scorers, including #1 by a country mile, on an offensively challenged team. Unlike USC they don't have several freshmen who are playing at a high level this year.

She used "future", not next year, actually. The question she was originally asked was about the motion offense, by the host who wasn't used to it and whether she thought Washington would abandon it when they got better personnel. She said no, that was the style that the Washington coach prefers, and said something about expecting her to have success with it. This was in the part of the show where she discusses the games that have just been played, so the focus was really on that. The USC comment was in a different part of the show.

 

[nwhoopfan]

She used "future", not next year, actually. The question she was originally asked was about the motion offense, by the host who wasn't used to it and whether she thought Washington would abandon it when they got better personnel. She said no, that was the style that the Washington coach prefers, and said something about expecting her to have success with it. This was in the part of the show where she discusses the games that have just been played, so the focus was really on that. The USC comment was in a different part of the show.

Thanks for the additional comments.

Style without players to execute it doesn't mean much. Wynn's recruiting has not been good, there's no reasonable reason for me to believe any significant improvement is coming any time soon. Posters here, now Coach Barnes getting in on it, keep saying just be patient and everything will be fine. I can't help but think some might have a vested interest in keeping UW down and don't want a change there. At least on a UW board I visit (and one vocal Husky fan on Rebkell) the tone is quite pessimistic and they just don't see Jody ever turning it around.

 

[azfan]

Very valid points. I do think OSU is the better team despite being lower than ASU but I dont have a lot to base it off of other than eye test and the 2 early losses for ASU.

I can definitely relate to your point of eye test although I disagree. Many times my eye test runs counter to things like record and head to head.

ASU beat OSU fairly handily at home in Tempe and really should have beaten the Beavers in Corvallis. So head to head I can see that while the two teams are close ASU really has out performed the Beavers in head to head meetings.

ASU also has beaten Oregon while OSU has not. However if looking at their performances against other teams in the PAC there is support for your eye. Particularly this past weekend when at home ASU had their hands full with WSU and UW two weaker teams.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Here's what I'd say: OSU has more talent, ASU has more grit. When the OSU talent is off, they don't seem to have much margin for error anymore. ASU can try a lot of different combinations, plays, players, etc. As the season has worn on, some of OSU's shooting talent (esp. Goodman and Tudor) has gone missing, and Slocum, Jones, and Pivec aren't quite at the level of talent or athleticism that Ionescu, Hebard, and Sabally are such that they can just take over games by themselves. The OSU three-headed monster needs more help, and they haven't been getting it lately, esp. now that Brown is out. It was abundantly clear to me the drop-off from Brown to Maddie Washington in the UCLA game. Washington grits hard but lacks either the height or the shooting talent to post up effectively alongside Jones.

 

[WestCoast]

Here's what I'd say: OSU has more talent, ASU has more grit. When the OSU talent is off, they don't seem to have much margin for error anymore. ASU can try a lot of different combinations, plays, players, etc. As the season has worn on, some of OSU's shooting talent (esp. Goodman and Tudor) has gone missing, and Slocum, Jones, and Pivec aren't quite at the level of talent or athleticism that Ionescu, Hebard, and Sabally are such that they can just take over games by themselves. The OSU three-headed monster needs more help, and they haven't been getting it lately, esp. now that Brown is out. It was abundantly clear to me the drop-off from Brown to Maddie Washington in the UCLA game. Washington grits hard but lacks either the height or the shooting talent to post up effectively alongside Jones.

I would agree. ASU has developed its depth and can wear teams without depth down with its substitutions.

Nobody else in the nation has a Big Three quite like Oregon, especially with two 6'4" WNBA Top 8 picks to supplement perhaps the most productive player in NCAA WBB history. While one or even two of Oregon's Big Three can be off statistically for a game, Oregon has still had enough to pull out wins. That hasn't been the case for OSU during PAC-12 play. OSU has led at the half in five of its seven losses, letting winnable games (USC) and signature wins (Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA) slip away in disheartening fashion.