Oregon St (11) @ UCLA (7) - 2/17/20

[eebmg]

Cry foul if you want but UCLA played very good defense in 2nd half and OT and their team speed and O Boarding is very impressive Earned the win imho as an external observer

 

[bballnut90]

Good win for UCLA. Still in the hunt for a 1 and well positioned to get the #2 seed in the Pac 12 tourney. Their last 4 games should be a breeze compared to the likes of Stanford (home vs. Oregon schools, road @ AZ schools). Guard play is going to make or break the Bruins this year IMO. Dean/Osborne need to hit shots like they did tonight for UCLA to have a chance agains the likes of Oregon in the P12 tourney.

 

[TheFarmFan]

So where will Oregon State be ranked next week if at all, 7 losses now....

6 of the 7 losses are to teams presently ranked. It's a lesser version of the same problem UConn has this season - all good losses but not many notable wins. Both have wins against DePaul, UConn has vs. Tennessee, and OSU has at Arizona and vs. ASU. The loss to U$C, however, is a bit inexplicable, and the strongest argument for putting them in danger of falling out, if they go 1/2 in the Bay.

The other problem is the lack of Kennedy Brown - they are now 0-3 without her. It's a version of the same problem Stanford has had without Haley Jones - she filled an important niche Stanford can't replace (w/ Carrington out too). Without Brown, Jones is often the solo post, and way harder to stay out of foul trouble. Jones had already fouled out 3 times this season with Brown, and I have to assume that will only get worse now that she's their chief post defender.

 

[Crazyhorse]

6 of the 7 losses are to teams presently ranked. It's a lesser version of the same problem UConn has this season - all good losses but not many notable wins. Both have wins against DePaul, UConn has vs. Tennessee, and OSU has at Arizona and vs. ASU. The loss to U$C, however, is a bit inexplicable, and the strongest argument for putting them in danger of falling out, if they go 1/2 in the Bay.

The other problem is the lack of Kennedy Brown - they are now 0-3 without her. It's a version of the same problem Stanford has had without Haley Jones - she filled an important niche Stanford can't replace (w/ Carrington out too). Without Brown, Jones is often the solo post, and way harder to stay out of foul trouble.

Maybe the PAC 12 isnt as strong as rankings suggest? Lots of parity this year.

 

[Plebe]

I wish I could get more PAC games.

I LOVE Mikayla Pivec. She’s such a wonderful blue-collar player.

There's absolutely nothing not to love about her. It's no wonder the OSU fans are always raving about her.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Maybe the PAC 12 isnt as strong as rankings suggest? Lots of parity this year.

PAC-12 OOC record, which is the only sure way of judging things at the moment, was pretty dang strong for the PAC. Among the top 6 teams, wins include: @ UConn, @ Indiana, @ Texas, vs. Tennessee, vs. DePaul, vs. Gonzaga, vs. Ohio St., vs. Missouri St., and neutrals vs. Miss. St., Syracuse (x2).

Only OOC losses among the top 6 were @ Texas, @ Minnesota, and neutrals vs. Louisville and Purdue.

Seems like the rankings are getting it right, based on the top half's OOC performance. It's also why none of the bottom half is even sniffing an NCAA bid - those schedules were either weak (coughcough Colorado) or had a boatload of losses - poor WSU had three games in three days vs. Indiana, South Carolina, and Baylor. Woof.

 

[Crazyhorse]

PAC-12 OOC record, which is the only sure way of judging things at the moment, was pretty dang strong for the PAC. Among the top 6 teams, wins include: @ UConn, @ Indiana, @ Texas, vs. Tennessee, vs. DePaul, vs. Gonzaga, vs. Ohio St., vs. Missouri St., and neutrals vs. Miss. St., Syracuse (x2).

Only OOC losses among the top 6 were @ Texas, @ Minnesota, and neutrals vs. Louisville and Purdue.

I think the Pac 12 is great, but there is a stark divide between Stanford, UCLA, Oregon and the rest. The top three have athletes, kids that can create their own shot.

 

[bballnut90]

Maybe the PAC 12 isnt as strong as rankings suggest? Lots of parity this year.

Oregon is the only true elite team, but each of OSU, UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona are capable of beating other top 5-10 teams. ASU, USC and Colorado are all dangerous too. It's far and away the best conference in America this year.

 

[Plebe]

Maybe the PAC 12 isnt as strong as rankings suggest? Lots of parity this year.

The problem with that hypothesis is that you'd need to identify which "underrated" teams should be ranked ahead of them. Given how lame the ACC, SEC and Big 12 are this year outside of their top one or two teams, there are very few viable candidates.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I think the Pac 12 is great, but there is a stark divide between Stanford, UCLA, Oregon and the rest. The top three have athletes, kids that can create their own shot.

Hmm. Unless you just watched a different game than I did, I saw Pivec, Slocum, and Jones all create their own shots. However - that is not OSU's strength, nor the way Rueck likes to coach. But hero ball by Pivec and Slocum, and Jones's smooth moves in the paint, has been the one thing bailing OSU out this season. If anything, I've been shocked by how poorly they've been at running sets. The versions of OSU past were much, much better at it.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I think the Pac 12 is great, but there is a stark divide between Stanford, UCLA, Oregon and the rest. The top three have athletes, kids that can create their own shot.

Did you see Arizona beat the crap out of UCLA? I think Oregon is head and shoulders above the rest, then Stanford, UCLA and Arizona should be grouped together.

 

[WestCoast]

6 of the 7 losses are to teams presently ranked. It's a lesser version of the same problem UConn has this season - all good losses but not many notable wins. Both have wins against DePaul, UConn has vs. Tennessee, and OSU has at Arizona and vs. ASU. The loss to U$C, however, is a bit inexplicable, and the strongest argument for putting them in danger of falling out, if they go 1/2 in the Bay.

The other problem is the lack of Kennedy Brown - they are now 0-3 without her. It's a version of the same problem Stanford has had without Haley Jones - she filled an important niche Stanford can't replace (w/ Carrington out too). Without Brown, Jones is often the solo post, and way harder to stay out of foul trouble. Jones had already fouled out 3 times this season with Brown, and I have to assume that will only get worse now that she's their chief post defender.

The Beavs came from behind and beat Arizona State in the game in which Kennedy Brown was injured in the first quarter. But, your point about the Beavers missing their 6'6" frosh is very true.

 

[Plebe]

I think the Pac 12 is great, but there is a stark divide between Stanford, UCLA, Oregon and the rest. The top three have athletes, kids that can create their own shot.

So Oregon State loses a game in overtime at UCLA, and your conclusion is "stark divide"? Hmmm...

Not that Massey is the end-all be-all, but FWIW coming into today:

3. Oregon
6. Stanford
8. Arizona
9. UCLA
16. Oregon State
22. Arizona State

 

[Crazyhorse]

The problem with that hypothesis is that you'd need to identify which "underrated" teams should be ranked ahead of them. Given how lame the ACC, SEC and Big 12 are this year outside of their top one or two teams, there are very few viable candidates.

Id take top two ACC over top two in Pac 12 any day of the week, as for the rest, it would probably be even, some upsets, some not.

 

[Crazyhorse]

So Oregon State loses a game in overtime at UCLA, and your conclusion is "stark divide"? Hmmm...

Not that Massey is the end-all be-all, but FWIW coming into today:

3. Oregon
6. Stanford
8. Arizona
9. UCLA
16. Oregon State
22. Arizona State

I believe Oregon, Stanford and UCLA to be the most talented teams in the PAC 12, more so than any of the others.

 

[Plebe]

Id take top two ACC over top two in Pac 12 any day of the week, as for the rest, it would probably be even, some upsets, some not.

Louisvlle and NC State are 11 and 13 in Massey. Your homer glasses are thick.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Id take top two ACC over top two in Pac 12 any day of the week, as for the rest, it would probably be even, some upsets, some not.

I would take the Pac in that challenge all day every day!

 

[Crazyhorse]

Louisvlle and NC State are 11 and 13 in Massey. Your homer glasses are thick.

I am not going by Massey, just from what I have watched, thick as they may be according to you.

 

[Crazyhorse]

I would take the Pac in that challenge all day every day!

I would not expect you to say anything else, that is what I love about sports!

 

[bballnut90]

I think the Pac 12 is great, but there is a stark divide between Stanford, UCLA, Oregon and the rest. The top three have athletes, kids that can create their own shot.

It's really Oregon, the next grouping of 4, and then everyone else with some dangerous teams thrown in. The only competitive games UO had were the Arizona schools weekend and vs. Oregon State, but the OSU game wasn't that competitive at the end.

Stanford needed 2 last second 3s vs Colorado to pull off the win the other day. UCLA also almost lost to Cal, Oregon State, and Colorado. Plus they did lose to USC and got throttled by Arizona. Oregon State has barely lost to UCLA (OT), Arizona (OT), and Stanford (3pt). The Stanford/UCLA/OSU/Arizona contingent are all very even teams IMO.

After that, ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them.

Colorado and USC are quite dangerous but fringe NCAA teams. USC has wins over Oregon State and UCLA, Colorado has come painfully close to beating Stanford twice and UCLA.

Beyond that the competition isn't very strong (Cal, Utah, Washington, Washington State).

 

[Crazyhorse]

Funny enough, both Massey and RPI have PAC-12 as number one conference and the ACC as number five. I don't get to watch much ACC during conference play, but my impression is that this season it has so many little sisters of the poor, and even Muffet has been seen passing the collection tin lately.

No one thinks of ND as ACC, its all contractual.

 

[Crazyhorse]

It's really Oregon, the next grouping of 4, and then everyone else with some dangerous teams thrown in. The only competitive games UO had were the Arizona schools weekend and vs. Oregon State, but the OSU game wasn't that competitive at the end.

Stanford needed 2 last second 3s vs Colorado to pull off the win the other day. UCLA also almost lost to Cal, Oregon State, and Colorado. Plus they did lose to USC and got throttled by Arizona. Oregon State has barely lost to UCLA (OT), Arizona (OT), and Stanford (3pt). The Stanford/UCLA/OSU/Arizona contingent are all very even teams IMO.

After that, ASU is the clear 6th team right now having lost to all of the teams ahead of them (splitting with Oregon schools) and beating all teams below them.

Colorado and USC are quite dangerous but fringe NCAA teams. USC has wins over Oregon State and UCLA, Colorado has come painfully close to beating Stanford twice and UCLA.

Beyond that the competition isn't very strong (Cal, Utah, Washington, Washington State).

Thank you for this thorough analysis.

 

[bballnut90]

Did you see Arizona beat the crap out of UCLA? I think Oregon is head and shoulders above the rest, then Stanford, UCLA and Arizona should be grouped together.

I'd throw Oregon State with them despite all of the losses. They're right there with those teams in every game but just haven't been able to get it done (2 OT losses and a 3pt loss at home to those 3). They also have a treacherous Pac 12 schedule playing Oregon, ASU, AZ, and Stanford both times and @ UCLA. By comparison, UCLA plays Arizona schools twice, home vs. Oregon/Oregon State and @ Stanford.

 

[Crazyhorse]

What is the head to head ACC-Pac 12 record this year, I cant remember if those conferences even played each other?

 

[Plebe]

I would not expect you to say anything else, that is what I love about sports!

I'm not a homer fan for either conference and I have watched all the relevant teams extensively.

Any game between the ACC top 2 and the Pac-12 top 5 could go either way. But the median level of play for the top 4 Pac-12 teams has been higher than that of FSU and Louisville. I would include Oregon State in that if not for the unfortunate season-ending injury to Kennedy Brown.