Opening betting lines

[nutmegger]

Uconn over ND by 2.5

Louisville over Cal by 2

 

[huskybill]

Uconn over ND by 2.5

Louisville over Cal by 2

Where are these odds from?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Uconn over ND by 2.5

Louisville over Cal by 2

So I checked for any other betting lines and found that just that one SportsBet odds seems to be open, while for the guys there are maybe a dozen or more major lines. Shouldn't Title IX be doing something about this and making sure there's a relatively equal amount of wagers on both sides?

But actually, an article in the Tampa Bay Times says that betting on the women is starting to catch fire, with an estimated $5 mil wagered just in Vegas last year. But one of the most interesting parts of the article is the citations of how savvy the WCBB bettors are and how they can take advantage of the less knowledgeable odds makers. Who cares if many if them are of the "women play slow and boring and can't dunk" troglodytism, they know where they can make some easy bucks.

Women's NCAA Basketball Draws the Betting Type

Other lines:

Odds that Carolyn Peck will say "They're playing with a purpose" more than five times during an FF game: 3-5
Odds that Geno will say something this weekend that someone in the sports media will be offended by: 7-9
Odds that someone who considers himself important will say that the women's tournament is boring because it's so predictable, and it will turn out that he lives within 50 miles of Waco: 2-3

 

[EricLA]

Where are these odds from?

I'm with Bill. ND beat UCONN 3 consecutive times this year - what oddsmakers feel UCONN is the favorite??

 

[PacoSwede]

Uconn over ND by 2.5

Louisville over Cal by 2

Makes sense.

Does this chip away some more at ND's confidence, get it more p.o.'d, or both?

 

[DobbsRover2]

I'm with Bill. ND beat UCONN 3 consecutive times this year - what oddsmakers feel UCONN is the favorite??

The oddsmakers have seen what happens when teams meet for a 4th time. They know their business. Plus UConn always gets more money just on rep, so odds have to be adjusted accordingly.

 

[bruinbball]

Louisville only 2 versus Cal...I may have to talk to my neighbor he's a betting man.

 

[Kibitzer]

We are now seeing the "early line" for these games. It will be adjusted based on bets placed. The "line" is less a prediction of the result expected than a guess at the point spread that will draw 50% of bets each way.

You often hear statements about how "the oddsmakers really took a beating," especially after an upset or an unexpected blowout. That is a silly statement.

By adjusting the "line" right up to gametime, about half the bets go down on either side. Betters basically bet $11 to win $10 which gives the bookies a 9% "vigorish." With millions (billions for Super Bowl) bet, low overhead costs, and everything tax free, there is no way the bookies ever get fleeced by the gullible betting public.

Most sports betters have a "system" and struggle to pay their monthly bills. Their friendly bookie travels regularly to Vegas or Caribbean islands. So whose "system" works best?

 

[maddoggy]

A word of caution: professional oddsmakers are not attempting to predict the outcome. They are attempting to predict the line at which the amounts bet on either outcome are equal.

If one team is a sentimental favorite with the betting public, it will draw a lot more bettors than the fats might otherwise justify. The oddsmakers adjust the line in order to get matching bets from the other side.

 

[magic]

I don't bet anymore, but, when I did, this line would have sent up a red flag in my head!

 

[JimGunther]

Cal and the Cards - only a 2 point spread?
I want in on THAT one.

I saw only the Cal/GA game but, they BOTH stunk-up-the-place (and I like the Dawgs!)

Louisville only 2 versus Cal...I may have to talk to my neighbor he's a betting man.

 

[whaler11]

A word of caution: professional oddsmakers are not attempting to predict the outcome. They are attempting to predict the line at which the amounts bet on either outcome are equal.

If one team is a sentimental favorite with the betting public, it will draw a lot more bettors than the fats might otherwise justify. The oddsmakers adjust the line in order to get matching bets from the other side.

This is absolutely, completely and totally false. Bookmakers take positions on games every day. In their own words if their jobs were to get equal money on both sides they would all be fired because nobody accomplishes that.

 

[Kibitzer]

This is absolutely, completely and totally false. Bookmakers take positions on games every day. In their own words if their jobs were to get equal money on both sides they would all be fired because nobody accomplishes that.

I believe you are mistaken. Bookies strive to draw equal action from both sides as a means of minimizing their risk. If, as often happens regionally (e.g., bets on UConn in Connecticut or on Louisville in Kentucky), a disproportionate volume of bets are made on one team, the local bookie will "lay off" bets by transferring them to higher bookmaker hierarchy, as a bank would do with bad mortgages.

Bookies don't get fired. They only go out of business if they don't have a reliable collection system (big guys with baseball bats) or they get caught by law enforcement. OR...... if they fail to keep bets approximately even and thus maximize their risk.

 

[whaler11]

I believe you are mistaken. Bookies strive to draw equal action from both sides as a means of minimizing their risk. If, as often happens regionally (e.g., bets on UConn in Connecticut or on Louisville in Kentucky), a disproportionate volume of bets are made on one team, the local bookie will "lay off" bets by transferring them to higher bookmaker hierarchy, as a bank would do with bad mortgages.

Bookies don't get fired. They only go out of business if they don't have a reliable collection system (big guys with baseball bats) or they get caught by law enforcement. OR...... if they fail to keep bets approximately even and thus maximize their risk.

I've been down this road on gambling on the other boards. The position that oddsmakers are only trying to take equal action on each side is fiction. Many believe it. It isn't true. It is impossible to do.

You are now talking about something different anyway. Local bookies and professional oddsmakers who work for licenced books. Yes small time local guys will lay stuff off. That has nothing to do with the guys who set the lines.

 

[Bestiarius]

I'll bet you Boneheads don't know that the point spread betting method was invented in Connecticut by a math teacher.

I agree that the bookies are trying to get an equal amount of bets on each team. If too many bettors are picking one team they'll increase or decrease the the spread to encourage bets on the other team. That way, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie get a risk free profit, since using Kibitzer's example above, you pay $11 to win $10.