One of these 8 teams will win the championship

[IrishTiger]

ND presents so many matchup problems. I was trying to figure out how State would matchup against them, and I couldn't figure out who we'd put on Young.

I’d like to see how Bri would do against McCowan. McCowan has the height but imo Turner is the more skilled player would be interesting.

 

[IrishTiger]

NOTRE DAME IS THE OVERWHELMING FAVORITE. I THINK THEY'LL BEAT EVERYONE BY 50.

Thanks for that Plebe really appreciate it.

 

[oldude]

ND presents so many matchup problems. I was trying to figure out how State would matchup against them, and I couldn't figure out who we'd put on Young.

Not sure how IrishTiger’s post was attributed to me?

 

[Magy Cannon]

Don't count Baylor out.

 

[Grad1990]

Turner, particularly, has gone to another level.

Agree that Turner is looking very good. Note Dame is a better team when Turner is more involved.

 

[Grad1990]

The only other "complete" team outside of those three is Oregon, but I feel like they don't seem to handle "big moment" games very well

I agree with you....Oregon tends to rely more heavily on player (Sabrina) then Team when the going gets tough...which is not usually a winning strategy.

Sabrina is a talent...Oregon would be a legitamate contender if they could find a way to have more confidence in their other quality players down the stretch.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I think a big factor for Oregon will be Sabally. She looked fantastic most of the season but hasn't been nearly as productive down the stretch. If they can get her going again, it's awfully hard to stop her, Hebard and Ionescu simultaneously. Not to mention both Cazorla and Boley can go off at any given time.

 

[Carnac]

I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me Baylor, UConn, and ND are the only three teams that have any significant probability to win it all. UConn and ND have the most complete starting 1-5s (assuming Lou is back), while Baylor has the best 8 man rotation in the country, without question, and that helps a lot in putting together 6 wins in a row in a little over 2 weeks.

If history is any guide, if I'm a Baylor or ND fan, I should worry about a sleeper upset in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, and if I'm a Huskie fan, I'd worry about the Final Four. Who their opponents are for those games will probably decide which among these three end up in the title game. For instance, I could see a Miss. St. edging UConn in the Final Four, but not in the championship game; a Stanford-over-Notre Dame type upset in the Elite Eight; or an OSU-over-Baylor type upset in the Sweet 16 - all three have happened over the past few years.

The only other "complete" team outside of those three is Oregon, but I feel like they don't seem to handle "big moment" games very well (witness this year's PAC-12 final and last year's relatively uncompetitive loss to the Domers in the tournament), and they have essentially no bench, which means less margin for error in any given game. I think they have a strong shot out to get out of the Portland regional since they're essentially going to enjoy four home games, but I don't see them winning both a high stakes final four and also a championship game two days later. (And while I like Coach Graves a lot, I think he's among the weakest at making halftime adjustments among these eight contenders.)

Mississippi St. is also fairly complete - if they hadn't lost Bibby, I would probably put them in the mix too. My main concern with Miss. St. is that they really depend on McCowan to do a lot of work, and I'm skeptical about whether can stick with it for four close-to-40-minute games in a row against top teams. McCowan hasn't faced three or four really good teams in a row this season - heck, she's hasn't even faced two top 25 RPI teams in a row in the entire season, which means she's either been able to phone it in for stretches on the court, or play <30 minute games. She was on the court almost 40 minutes a game during the tournament last season and she seemed kind of out of gas by the time they faced ND.

IMHO, Louisville, Stanford, and Iowa rely too heavily on just two or three players, and I don't think that can carry you through six games in 17 days. Those three teams seem more like spoilers likely to take down a top seed than to win it all.

Just my two cents.

Great post, thanks.

 

[Carnac]

You are right that IOWA is a good team but not at the NC level, but that hasn't held other teams back. I'm thinking of the Louieville Vs Griner Baylor', no one could have predicted that. No Walz didn't play the NC.
Gustafson is fun to watch. She works hard. She has talent that can't be denied but the depth of it can be questioned.

Didn’t Notre Dame lose to an unranked team this year? And Miss St. lost to an unranked Missouri team?Huh..........anything is possible in the up coming tournament.

I know this has absolutely nothing to do with the women, but Tuesday, I attended the Gonzaga v St. Mary’s WCC championship game. The arena was packed!!! Unranked SM beat Gonzaga 60-47, who just happened to be the #1 team in the country at the time. Nobody saw that one coming. The best game I've seen all year.

You can’t take any team lightly these next few weeks. I expect upsets in EVERY round of the tournament.

 

[Carnac]

I think a big factor for Oregon will be Sabally. She looked fantastic most of the season but hasn't been nearly as productive down the stretch. If they can get her going again, it's awfully hard to stop her, Hebard and Ionescu simultaneously. Not to mention both Cazorla and Boley can go off at any given time.

Any team serious about winning a chip must understand and embrace the fact that you can’t have an “off” day. If you do, you may be sent home.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Didn’t Notre Dame lose to an unranked team this year? Huh.....anything is possible in the up coming tournament.

Absolutely, if the Tourney was cut dried, only UConn would show up
(I'm not implying a FIX, we just have to look at history over the 20 years. Aren't we supposed to learn from history?

 

[Carnac]

Absolutely, if the Tourney was cut dried, only UConn would show up
(I'm not implying a FIX, we just have to look at history over the 20 years. Aren't we supposed to learn from history?

Yes..........if not we are “doomed” to repeat it.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I’d like to see how Bri would do against McCowan. McCowan has the height but imo Turner is the more skilled player would be interesting.

Turner is a terrific player and more mobile than McCowan. In a head to head, with the chemistry Ms St has been building I wouldn't give the edge to Turner. Plebe --does so that negates anything I may post on this subject.

 

[msf22b]

When the season started ND was the overwhelming fav...and for good reason.
Their starting 5 were all upper-class, superior players with experience in winning up to and including NC's. The bench seems weak.

Along the way, they struggled...with the inevitable injuries (to Turner), and Mme. O's propensity to forget she's on a team and try to win the game all by herself (or way waste to her opponents in the process).

But even with their less than stellar coaching , the team has managed to seemingly pull themselves together and remains a formidable
threat.

They worried me in Sept., they continue to worry me now.

Perhaps Geno can find a way....or they fall by the wayside...

 

[LoTrader]

When the season started ND was the overwhelming fav...and for good reason.
Their starting 5 were all upper-class, superior players with experience in winning up to and including NC's. The bench seems weak.

Along the way, they struggled...with the inevitable injuries (to Turner), and Mme. O's propensity to forget she's on a team and try to win the game all by herself (or way waste to her opponents in the process).

But even with their less than stellar coaching , the team has managed to seemingly pull themselves together and remains a formidable
threat.

They worried me in Sept., they continue to worry me now.

Perhaps Geno can find a way....or they fall by the wayside...

Geno will have many teams to worry about before ND

 

[NWHoopFan2]

I agree with you....Oregon tends to rely more heavily on player (Sabrina) then Team when the going gets tough...which is not usually a winning strategy.

Sabrina is a talent...Oregon would be a legitamate contender if they could find a way to have more confidence in their other quality players down the stretch.

I take it you didn’t see Oregon’s semi final game against Arizona St. in their tournament. In that game they did go to Sabally in a big way down the stretch. It all depends on matchups.

 

[jonson]

I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me Baylor, UConn, and ND are the only three teams that have any significant probability to win it all. UConn and ND have the most complete starting 1-5s (assuming Lou is back), while Baylor has the best 8 man rotation in the country, without question, and that helps a lot in putting together 6 wins in a row in a little over 2 weeks.

If history is any guide, if I'm a Baylor or ND fan, I should worry about a sleeper upset in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, and if I'm a Huskie fan, I'd worry about the Final Four. Who their opponents are for those games will probably decide which among these three end up in the title game. For instance, I could see a Miss. St. edging UConn in the Final Four, but not in the championship game; a Stanford-over-Notre Dame type upset in the Elite Eight; or an OSU-over-Baylor type upset in the Sweet 16 - all three have happened over the past few years.

The only other "complete" team outside of those three is Oregon, but I feel like they don't seem to handle "big moment" games very well (witness this year's PAC-12 final and last year's relatively uncompetitive loss to the Domers in the tournament), and they have essentially no bench, which means less margin for error in any given game. I think they have a strong shot out to get out of the Portland regional since they're essentially going to enjoy four home games, but I don't see them winning both a high stakes final four and also a championship game two days later. (And while I like Coach Graves a lot, I think he's among the weakest at making halftime adjustments among these eight contenders.)

Mississippi St. is also fairly complete - if they hadn't lost Bibby, I would probably put them in the mix too. My main concern with Miss. St. is that they really depend on McCowan to do a lot of work, and I'm skeptical about whether can stick with it for four close-to-40-minute games in a row against top teams. McCowan hasn't faced three or four really good teams in a row this season - heck, she's hasn't even faced two top 25 RPI teams in a row in the entire season, which means she's either been able to phone it in for stretches on the court, or play <30 minute games. She was on the court almost 40 minutes a game during the tournament last season and she seemed kind of out of gas by the time they faced ND.

IMHO, Louisville, Stanford, and Iowa rely too heavily on just two or three players, and I don't think that can carry you through six games in 17 days. Those three teams seem more like spoilers likely to take down a top seed than to win it all.

Just my two cents.

Although I agree entirely with the first paragraph and, indeed, almost all of this post, I do think that there are reasons to think--at least, as a Duck fan, I'd like to think--that the Pac 12 title game is not necessarily an accurate indicator of how Oregon will do in the tournament. In addition to the 3 games in 3 days schedule, with the second going into overtime and all three against ranked teams, there were some additional hurdles involved: Hebard's knee injury without a day of rest between games; Sabally's elbow injury; the fact that Cazorla spent the 4 days prior to the tournament in bed with the flu; and the absence of the player who had been first off the bench throughout the season, making a very short bench even shorter. The first (Hebard's knee injury) will still be present during the NCAA Tournament, but having a day between games should help a great deal. The last 3 should be behind them. No one had even a decent game against Stanford-- and Ionescu seemed to believe she had to do it all given the above, never a good thing for her or the team. But, even so, they didn't exactly get blown out by a very good team. So, I think the final four is is a possibility. Winning it all, however, is another story.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Although I agree entirely with the first paragraph and, indeed, almost all of this post, I do think that there are reasons to think--at least, as a Duck fan, I'd like to think--that the Pac 12 title game is not necessarily an accurate indicator of how Oregon will do in the tournament. In addition to the 3 games in 3 days schedule, with the second going into overtime and all three against ranked teams, there were some additional hurdles involved: Hebard's knee injury without a day of rest between games; Sabally's elbow injury; the fact that Cazorla spent the 4 days prior to the tournament in bed with the flu; and the absence of the player who had been first off the bench throughout the season, making a very short bench even shorter. The first (Hebard's knee injury) will still be present during the NCAA Tournament, but having a day between games should help a great deal. The last 3 should be behind them. No one had even a decent game against Stanford-- and Ionescu seemed to believe she had to do it all given the above, never a good thing for her or the team. But, even so, they didn't exactly get blown out by a very good team. So, I think the final four is is a possibility. Winning it all, however, is another story.

I agree with much of what you wrote, but not all three of the Duck's PAC12 opponents were not ranked. Arizona is 18-13 and 7-11 in the PAC12 and were never ranked in any poll or computer ranking of which I am aware. With the Duck's shallow bench and starter-dominated roster, the NCAA tournament should be their friend. 1-4 days off between each game is perfect for teams where starters play the vast majority of the minutes. As I see it, that description applies to Oregon, as well as UConn and Notre Dame. And surprisingly (to me at least) Iowa!
Here are the players with the most starter's minutes for each of the top 8 teams:

Note that Dana Evans was not the starter for Louisville, but she played more minutes than starter Jazmine Jones, so I counted her.

Mississippi State's depth should really help if the team is in foul trouble or there are games every day (like conference tournaments), but should offer less of an advantage in the NCAA tournament, which allows more rest. Of course it's always good to have a nice bench and the Bulldog's starters will be more prepared next season than say, Notre Dame's 2019-20 starters, who had very few minutes this season (and 80-100% this season's Irish starters will be moving on after this season).

 

[jonson]

I agree with much of what you wrote, but not all three of the Duck's PAC12 opponents were not ranked. Arizona is 18-13 and 7-11 in the PAC12 and were never ranked in any poll or computer ranking of which I am aware. With the Duck's shallow bench and starter-dominated roster, the NCAA tournament should be their friend. 1-4 days off between each game is perfect for teams where starters play the vast majority of the minutes. As I see it, that description applies to Oregon, as well as UConn and Notre Dame. And surprisingly (to me at least) Iowa!
Here are the players with the most starter's minutes for each of the top 8 teams:
View attachment 40932

Note that Dana Evans was not the starter for Louisville, but she played more minutes than starter Jazmine Jones, so I counted her.

Mississippi State's depth should really help if the team is in foul trouble or there are games every day (like conference tournaments), but should offer less of an advantage in the NCAA tournament, which allows more rest. Of course it's always good to have a nice bench and the Bulldog's starters will be more prepared next season than say, Notre Dame's 2019-20 starters, who had very few minutes this season (and 80-100% this season's Irish starters will be moving on after this season).

Sorry. My mistake. Somehow I keep imaging Arizona was Arizona State.

 

[shinobimono]

It scares me how many people are picking ND to win it. I wish Y’all would pick Your own teams to win it. Haha

Superstitious, no?

 

[Shorty Dee]

I still have that feeling I had at the beginning of the season, so I say UConn will win the NC, and bring #12 back to Storrs. UConn now have 7 solid players and they bring different things to the team.

 

[IrishTiger]

Superstitious, no?

Yup i am

 

[hussybulldog]

My only comment is that at present Creme has MS St & OR in the Portland region. If that holds one or the other will not make it to Orlando

I think Baylor and Portland will be there instead of MSST.....as Portland stock had declned and a stronger team will be sent there.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Yup i am

Hmmm. Try a FOUR-leaf clover instead, but not until mid-April.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I still have that feeling I had at the beginning of the season, so I say UConn will win the NC, and bring #12 back to Storrs. UConn now have 7 solid players and they bring different things to the team.

Shorty Dee--Uconn HAS 5 solid players, that is true. Beyond that that have 2 pretty good, made big jumps from NOV, players. How they work out facing big talented experienced teams is yet to be determined. IF ONO plays her Aplus game in Defense I like Uconn's chances. Coombs whom I support totally is a good one on one defender, with limitations in other area, in some games she could make a difference.
With all those words: pretty much what you said with a hedge on my bet.