Olympics Women's Basketball, Expected Outcomes and Surprises

[BlueSkyGLW]

Surprises:

Nigeria over Australia 75-62
France over Canada 75-54

These wins were possibles but the margins are surprising. Really didn't expect Nigeria to do that to Australia. I suppose one can say that Gabby picked Canada's pockets (5 steals). I really thought that Canada has a much stronger team than this performance.....and the two UConn alums didn't stand out as much as expected but contributed well enough. Not ready to elevate the French team but it is looking like a candidate for the podium, even on a day it brought Marine Johannes in from the bench.

Expected:

Germany over Belgium 83-69

In progress: a surprise that US is slow to run away from Japan. Let's see what they do in the 2nd half.

 

[AidanFan20]

102-76 final... USA shot not-so-great from 3, especially in the first half. But they hit a few in the 2nd half, and their obvious size advantage wore Japan down.

Japan battled well. They execute, shoot well, play team ball... They'd be really good if they had any size.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

102-76 final... USA shot not-so-great from 3, especially in the first half. But they hit a few in the 2nd half, and their obvious size advantage wore Japan down.

Japan battled well. They execute, shoot well, play team ball... They'd be really good if they had any size.

Japan showed itself to be a well disciplined and coordinated team, with good execution. The US defense did a better job as the game went on but much credit to the Little Women!

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[UcMiami]

Japan was in the GM game in Tokyo last time out and lost by 15 so no real surprise to me. They are so disciplined and shoot so well from all five spots that they cause teams nightmares on offense. On defense, while they are short, they are physical and fast with fast hands and have a deep team, so can keep the pressure on.

Watching Griner and Wilson trying to defend 5'6" speedsters beyond the 3 line was awkward.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I believe that France is the #2 seed.

I did not expect Nigeria to beat Australia or Germany to beat Belgium.

 

[topogigio]

Japan was totally overmatched, but hustled and ran terrific offense. Their ball movement was outstanding. The US just wore them down with their size and skill. Did I hear correct that one of Japan's sharpshooters shot 64% on threes over the season?

 

[EricLA]

I'd like to see Japan vs. France... I think that could be entertaining. Those Japanese guards are super pesky, fast, and great shooters. We just wore them down, and Stewie/A'ja is the best duo in the world IMHO. AND they play differently - A'ja more power, Stewie more finesse. Which means they don't need to occupy the same spot on the floor. Great duo for sure...

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'd like to see Japan vs. France... I think that could be entertaining. Those Japanese guards are super pesky, fast, and great shooters. We just wore them down, and Stewie/A'ja is the best duo in the world IMHO. AND they play differently - A'ja more power, Stewie more finesse. Which means they don't need to occupy the same spot on the floor. Great duo for sure...

France beat Japan by 75-62 in a friendly last week. France also beat Japan in the 2022 World Cup.

 

[uconnfan68]

View attachment 102612

And BG and AT off the bench.

 

[Blond D.]

Gabby looked GREAT! I forgot how fast and powerful she was.
Aaliyah and Kia just didnt have much to play with. Canada really only had one bad quarter (2nd) but it was a REALLY bad quarter. But Gabby was going thru Canada's defense faster than sweet corn thru a goose. ( Canadian Goose)

 

[baggerbob]

I'd like to see Japan vs. France... I think that could be entertaining. Those Japanese guards are super pesky, fast, and great shooters. We just wore them down, and Stewie/A'ja is the best duo in the world IMHO. AND they play differently - A'ja more power, Stewie more finesse. Which means they don't need to occupy the same spot on the floor. Great duo for sure...

And Japan likes to play fast, and against Stewie, and A'ja that is a losing game.
They both like to run, and they both beat the Japanese players down the floor for layups.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

I believe that France is the #2 seed.

I did not expect Nigeria to beat Australia or Germany to beat Belgium.

Looked at the lineups of Germany and Belgium before the game. I did expect Germany to win but in a close game. I should have put the result in the Surprise category for the lopsided score.

 

[baggerbob]

Looked at the lineups of Germany and Belgium before the game. I did expect Germany to win but in a close game. I should have put the result in the Surprise category for the lopsided score.

Belgium lost their starting point guard before the game injured. Julie Allemond would normally start for them.
It will be between Germany and Japan to get to the next round.
Even without a lot of height Japan plays a lot of people, and Germany isn't deep.
Japan might wear them down.
Plus can't see the Sabaly's guarding Japan' 3 point shooting.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

Might as well put it here. ESPN is really promoting Aja Wilson by highlighting her every chance they get. I suppose they are trying to defend and further sell their notion that Aja Wilson deserves to be in their list of Top 100 athletes in the 21st Century and Breanna does not. Boo ESPN! Again.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

Belgium lost their starting point guard before the game injured. Julie Allemond would normally start for them.
It will be between Germany and Japan to get to the next round.
Even without a lot of height Japan plays a lot of people, and Germany isn't deep.
Japan might wear them down.
Plus can't see the Sabaly's guarding Japan' 3 point shooting.

That's why I thought Germany would win but I was careless in the first post summary by putting it in the Expected category......because of the score.

Japan is undersized but I like its chances to progress out of the group stage. Beyond the exemplary team play, they look like a very determined bunch!

 

[visitingcock]

Might as well put it here. ESPN is really promoting Aja Wilson by highlighting her every chance they get. I suppose they are trying to defend and further sell their notion that Aja Wilson deserves to be in their list of Top 100 athletes in the 21st Century and Breanna does not. Boo ESPN! Again.

ESPN/SEC CONSPIRACY!!!

 

[HopJim]

Not unexpected for teams that didn't have much time to fully coordinate their efforts, but both the women's and men's team are not playing at full speed defensively. Offensively, and for the women's team underneath, they are totally dominate. In the pro leagues, once the playoffs come around, they are playing against opponents they have competed with multiple times before and can develop tactics to slow down the top players. This works both ways. While we sometimes get surprised by the Japans of the world, they have little time to prepare for the top US athletes. That being said, the US has several players no amount of time would help.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Belgium lost their starting point guard before the game injured. Julie Allemond would normally start for them.
It will be between Germany and Japan to get to the next round.
Even without a lot of height Japan plays a lot of people, and Germany isn't deep.
Japan might wear them down.
Plus can't see the Sabaly's guarding Japan' 3 point shooting.

Yeah, I forgot that Allemand was injured. Van Loo is good, but not at the same level.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Japan shot roughly 40% from deep yesterday. If they shoot 50% against a team that does not have the USA inside game, they can win.

 

[baggerbob]

Japan shot roughly 40% from deep yesterday. If they shoot 50% against a team that does not have the USA inside game, they can win.

Not just that but A' ja and Stewie switch very well on defense, which limited Japan inside.
Other teams, the quickness of Japan's players will get them more layups.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I am shocked by the tremendous quality of WBB talent in the Olympics. It wasn't that long ago that many of the teams seemed sent there to be devoured by the US or Russia/USSR. But now the talent takes my breath away. Even the undersized Japan team have to be the most tenacious and exquisitely coached team around. They only lost to the US by 26 points. France features great talent in Marine Johannes, who decided not to play in the WNBA, though she was drafted. And Macan? Have I got that right? A teenager who was just drafted high in the WNBA draft? China is loaded. And Spain is also superb.

It's a new world, and the other women's leagues around the world, whether in Turkey or China, or points in between, are playing superb basketball.

I think there should be a world league, or a real WBB equivalent of the World Cup. Just gobsmacked!

 

[cancontent]

Gabby looked GREAT! I forgot how fast and powerful she was.
Aaliyah and Kia just didnt have much to play with. Canada really only had one bad quarter (2nd) but it was a REALLY bad quarter. But Gabby was going thru Canada's defense faster than sweet corn thru a goose. ( Canadian Goose)

While I agree on the description of Gabby's play, I challenge the Canadian Goose comparison. That is the least likely waterfowl that would allow anything through without a fight .

Crossing paths with them is, as Deion Sanders would say, a "business decision". There's a reason why they're called cobra chickens.

 

[cancontent]

Surprises:

Nigeria over Australia 75-62
France over Canada 75-54

These wins were possibles but the margins are surprising. Really didn't expect Nigeria to do that to Australia. I suppose one can say that Gabby picked Canada's pockets (5 steals). I really thought that Canada has a much stronger team than this performance.....and the two UConn alums didn't stand out as much as expected but contributed well enough. Not ready to elevate the French team but it is looking like a candidate for the podium, even on a day it brought Marine Johannes in from the bench.

Expected:

Germany over Belgium 83-69

In progress: a surprise that US is slow to run away from Japan. Let's see what they do in the 2nd half.

On paper, maybe but if you followed how they've performed since the World Cup, this shouldn't be surprising.

1). Lost to a USA team of college students during FIBA Americas in 2023. Actually, this is the second time this has happened as the same thing occurred in 2021.
2). Had to rely on another team losing during the Olympic qualifiers to qualify.
3). Their performance during exhibition games have left a lot to be desired, both with and without their WNBA players.
4). Guard play, even with Kia on the roster, is not our strength as seen during the France game. Shay Colley, a starter, had 8 on her own.
5). The mix of the team is a blend of inexperience and veterans. Players like Swords and Prosper are being touted as potential contributors. I fear they're going to get the same treatment Aaliyah did in 2021 and play minimally. Prosper had 3 minutes, where Swords has 9. They're talented players, but it's also an example that Canada isn't there yet when it comes to roster depth.

This is why I said 2028 seems more realistic when it comes to a medal. The team is a lot closer, but not there yet. After yesterday's game, they can't afford another loss if they want to make the quarterfinals.

 

[Bone Dog]

Mai Yamamoto (#23) is my favorite player to watch on Japan. She’s their little speedster and perimeter shooter. She’s the key to everything they do.