Ok you TV wonks - does HBO's move change anything

[Skiblets]

Was reading about HBO's move to online streaming and was wondering if the days of cable channel bundling is coming to an end. A few questions I have:

1. If so, is the BIG's addition of Rutgers, knowing it was about eyeballs, still a good move?
2. Does the move by HBO help or hurt our cause in realignment?
3. Is this HBO move a minor tremor or the beginning of a large shake?

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/analyst-hbos-streaming-channel-could-cost-up-to-100252287689.html

 

[Fishy]

1) Yup.
2) Neither.
3) Minor tremor.

 

[upstater]

I read they want to charge $17 a month.

That's $110 more a year to get HBO shows 9 months earlier than you get them on Netflix or Amazon. You're paying $17 for HBO in a top tier movie package on most cable systems.

Because of this, I'm not sure who HBO alone is going to appeal to. Most people who have opted out of cable have Netflix which is $9 cheaper a month and you still get HBO shows (for now, that is) 9 months later.

 

[Fishy]

Your theory has one blazing flaw - Netflix won't be getting those shows if HBO has an online option.

HBO is building a competitor to Netflix with their own content, Universal movies, etc.

 

[upstater]

Your theory has one blazing flaw - Netflix won't be getting those shows if HBO has an online option.

HBO is building a competitor to Netflix with their own content, Universal movies, etc.

I accounted for that possibility. But it remains to be seen. Netflix burns through a billion dollars every two qtrs in licensing fees.

That's a lot of cash for HBO to forego. I'm sure the B1G is dreaming of the day they can flee ESPN and reap all the profit for their content themselves, but they haven't done that yet.

 

[Fishy]

It's done - HBO streaming will be the only place to see current HBO shows and after three years, those shows will be available to Amazon, not Netflix. In addition, HBO will have the streaming rights to all Universal movies over the next decade.

.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

No. HBO is a scripted content channel that most people like to watch on their own schedule via on-demans online stream or DVR. No one watches sports on their DVR or through on-demand stream. Sports rating are 99.9% live. This move won't change anything.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Sports rating are 99.9% live. .

And best of all, most of the advertising gets watched (advertisers like that).

 

[uconntailgater]

Cable and satellite bundling days are numbered. You have to remember the millennial generation is not subscribing to full-service cable and satellite bundling packages. They are more comfortable watching their entertainment on their mobile devices and have no inclination to pay for services they don't want or need. Plus, with this recession going into it's six-year the millennial generation cannot afford full service cable and satellite packages. Cable companies are hemorrhaging subscribers as they transferred to Netflix, Amazon prime, and other forms of entertainment. Many other networks will offer more content via streaming.

 

[whaler11]

If cable bundling days are numbered... then so is the ability for networks to generate programming people want to see. Do you think AMC can come up with shows like Mad Men or The Walking Dead if 100 million people aren't paying a dime a month for the cable network?

It's sort of funny that some people think they have cracked some code. Like they will be better off paying 5 different content providers $15 a month and triple for internet access - rather than the model we have today.

How do you think all the good programming ended up on cable in the first place while the networks are feeding you singing competitions?

 

[noeynox]

Yeah, i don't see this as a positive. Thankfully, I am not currently into any HBO shows, which is good thing since I don't get HBO. I do get showtime, and got caught up on homeland on showtime on demand, but in the past I have used netflix to catch up on breaking bad and walking dead. What this ensures for me at least is, that I will not get into any HBO shows, since I was considering game of thrones since I hear so many things.

I don't bother with shows until I know they are hits/really good then my wife and i will watch an episode or two a night to get caught up. HBO shows are off the list if I can't see them on netflix or prime.

 

[itgoeslike]

If cable bundling days are numbered... then so is the ability for networks to generate programming people want to see. Do you think AMC can come up with shows like Mad Men or The Walking Dead if 100 million people aren't paying a dime a month for the cable network?

It's sort of funny that some people think they have cracked some code. Like they will be better off paying 5 different content providers $15 a month and triple for internet access - rather than the model we have today.

How do you think all the good programming ended up on cable in the first place while the networks are feeding you singing competitions?

Even ESPN is hedging. . .

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/09/disney-and-espn-preparing-to-go-a-la-carte.aspx

 

[whaler11]

Even ESPN is hedging. . .

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/09/disney-and-espn-preparing-to-go-a-la-carte.aspx

Interesting. It's certainly going in that direction. To me it's a very bad outcome. We'll end up with less choice, less quality and less convienience.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Interesting. It's certainly going in that direction. To me it's a very bad outcome. We'll end up with less choice, less quality and less convienience.

And the internet will become unusable in evening.

 

[dayooper]

And the internet will become unusable in evening.

We will be paying per gig used. That will get very expensive very quick.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Cable and satellite bundling days are numbered. You have to remember the millennial generation is not subscribing to full-service cable and satellite bundling packages. They are more comfortable watching their entertainment on their mobile devices and have no inclination to pay for services they don't want or need. Plus, with this recession going into it's six-year the millennial generation cannot afford full service cable and satellite packages. Cable companies are hemorrhaging subscribers as they transferred to Netflix, Amazon prime, and other forms of entertainment. Many other networks will offer more content via streaming.

i don't see major sports moving away from cable or networks in the next 10-15 years. maybe someone figures out how to break the model, but given contracts as they exist, it's a long way off.

 

[Husky25]

No. HBO is a scripted content channel that most people like to watch on their own schedule via on-demans online stream or DVR. No one watches sports on their DVR or through on-demand stream. Sports rating are 99.9% live. This move won't change anything.

And best of all, most of the advertising gets watched (advertisers like that).

Negatory. The best part of DVR is recording a game and doing something else during the 1st half (mow the lawn, close the pool, rake leaves, eat dinner, etc. etc. and so on and so forth.). If you start a game during the live halftime, you can finish it on DVR by the live end by fast forwarding through the commercials and halftime.

This does leave a few conditions, however. It is desirable to watch live sports as close to live as possible, but watching live is not a necessity. Stay off Twitter and you'll survive. Like many, sports are why I have not cut the cord. I have no issue with using subversive methods, but the picture quality is lacking and I don't want to do it every night.

 

[itgoeslike]

Interesting. It's certainly going in that direction. To me it's a very bad outcome. We'll end up with less choice, less quality and less convienience.

It's a double edged sword. For some it will be better and for some it will be worse. People a lot younger than I am consume media very differently than I do, even though I consider myself pretty hip (although my daughter is quick to disagree). ESPN initially resisted a la carte, but at the end of the day they simply can't afford to marginalize their leadership position that they spent decades building to a dynamic shift in technology or consumption trends. Think about how many billion dollar companies exist today that are younger than a preschooler and how many former Fortune 500 companies are a shell of their former selves.

 

[whaler11]

It's a double edged sword. For some it will be better and for some it will be worse. People a lot younger than I am consume media very differently than I do, even though I consider myself pretty hip (although my daughter is quick to disagree). ESPN initially resisted a la carte, but at the end of the day they simply can't afford to marginalize their leadership position that they spent decades building to a dynamic shift in technology or consumption trends. Think about how many billion dollar companies exist today that are younger than a preschooler and how many former Fortune 500 companies are a shell of their former selves.

That article you posted has a highly misleading title.

ESPN isn't doing a la carte. They are offering non television games in a package similar to NBA Direct Ticket or whatever the out of network cable package is called. The first sentence means it's really not that big of a deal.

"The direct-to-consumer challenge
ESPN's over-the-top service will not compete with its cable channels. That means the service will be filled with games that didn't make the cut for airtime on the television networks.

 

[CTMike]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Netflix, or an HBO, look to sports for live programming in the next few years. Probably smaller sports or one offs (maybe a Netflix Bowl?). But I don't foresee them making any sort of dent in traditional sports broadcasting. Traditional cable and "roll your own" combos of Netflix/Hulu/HBO will coexist for a long time - a la carte definitely won't be a good deal for everyone (most likely, only for non-sports fans).

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

Your theory has one blazing flaw - Netflix won't be getting those shows if HBO has an online option.

HBO is building a competitor to Netflix with their own content, Universal movies, etc.

HBO shows have never been available on Netflix so it's no loss for them. Netflix is basically trying to become the new HBO before HBO becomes the new Netflix. Hence the drive towards original content (Orange is the New Black, House of Cards, etc.).

 

[frankthetank]

Negatory. The best part of DVR is recording a game and doing something else during the 1st half (mow the lawn, close the pool, rake leaves, eat dinner, etc. etc. and so on and so forth.). If you start a game during the live halftime, you can finish it on DVR by the live end by fast forwarding through the commercials and halftime.

This does leave a few conditions, however. It is desirable to watch live sports as close to live as possible, but watching live is not a necessity. Stay off Twitter and you'll survive. Like many, sports are why I have not cut the cord. I have no issue with using subversive methods, but the picture quality is lacking and I don't want to do it every night.

You're in a small minority on this front, though. The data has borne out the opposite: sports are virtually the only DVR-proof programs left and the people that watch sports on DVRs are miniscule compared to those that record scripted programming. It's interesting that when Tivo and DVRs first started hitting the market, a lot of people in the TV industry actually did think it would change sports watching the most (i.e. being able to watch replays). As with many things, the soothsayers were completely off and, if anything, sports watching has been impacted by DVR viewing the least out of any category (which is why sports rights fees have gone up exponentially by comparison).

 

[frankthetank]

Regardless, HBO has always been an a la carte channel. This doesn't fundamentally change any model at all unless you're someone whose primary purpose for buying cable is to have access to HBO. The channels that matter in this a la carte discussion are the basic cable channels, most notably ESPN.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Negatory. The best part of DVR is recording a game and doing something else during the 1st half (mow the lawn, close the pool, rake leaves, eat dinner, etc. etc. and so on and so forth.). If you start a game during the live halftime, you can finish it on DVR by the live end by fast forwarding through the commercials and halftime.

This does leave a few conditions, however. It is desirable to watch live sports as close to live as possible, but watching live is not a necessity. Stay off Twitter and you'll survive. Like many, sports are why I have not cut the cord. I have no issue with using subversive methods, but the picture quality is lacking and I don't want to do it every night.

My approach too. I abhor ads, especially the ones that run during sporting events.

 

[Husky25]

You're in a small minority on this front, though. The data has borne out the opposite: sports are virtually the only DVR-proof programs left and the people that watch sports on DVRs are miniscule compared to those that record scripted programming. It's interesting that when Tivo and DVRs first started hitting the market, a lot of people in the TV industry actually did think it would change sports watching the most (i.e. being able to watch replays). As with many things, the soothsayers were completely off and, if anything, sports watching has been impacted by DVR viewing the least out of any category (which is why sports rights fees have gone up exponentially by comparison).

Don't get me wrong, I still watch the game when it's on, I just start later than the opening tip, kick, pitch, or drop of the puck. What bugs me about a recorded game is that it already happened. Even if I can avoid finding out the score, there is nothing I can do to affect the outcome on a cosmic/karma level.

Rewind is good for run of the mill plays during the course of the game (mostly basketball), but the networks replay any significant play ad naseum as it is. I just assume fast forwarding through all the superfluous replays. Watch the NFL this weekend. You literally watch the game at least twice.