OK, ETT: Thoughts on Baylor vs. UConn

[JoePgh]

Somewhere in the last week, EastTexasTrash posted his opinion that Baylor would defeat UConn if they played because UConn would be unable to contain Baylor’s inside game. I would have preferred to reply to that post, but I couldn’t locate it even after searching. Oh well ...

ETT is right to note that UConn hasn’t played anyone this year with an inside combination quite like Brown and Cox. South Carolina, with Wilson and Jennings, was probably the closest, but neither those two players nor the rest of the Gamecocks’ team quite measures up to what Baylor has (although Wilson may be the best player of the four just mentioned). Still, the UConn game plan for South Carolina is probably a reasonable preview of how they would approach a Baylor game. Basically, it boils down to positioning themselves on defense to prevent entry passes to the post, doing their best on the defensive boards while acknowledging that Baylor will probably get enough putback baskets to make UConn fans uncomfortable, and getting a major number of points off turnovers and in transition.

The game will probably be decided by whether Baylor’s second-chance points exceed or fall short of UConn’s transition points.

When UConn is in a half-court offense, everyone on the court should have a mobility advantage against both Brown and Cox, and that should open lots of opportunities for penetration and backdoor plays. It will undoubtedly take some acrobatic plays by Gabby, some quick 8-10 foot shots being made by Napheesa, rebounding at both ends by Azura, and of course a lot of 3-point accuracy by Lou / Kia / Crystal, to win the game. Basically the game will pit UConn’s destroyers against Baylor’s battleships, and I think the 3rd through 6th players for UConn (I’m not even sure who they are; it changes every game) have a distinct advantage over their counterparts from Baylor.

I remember a Baylor-UConn game in Connecticut back in the Griner days that did not end well for UConn. I think that was the game where Geno said afterwards that if freshman Stewart (who played 7 ineffective minutes) had not played at all, UConn probably would have won. But what I remember from watching that game is that Bria Hartley and Tiffany Hayes were beating their defenders with ease, and backdoor passes were being completed easily by Stef and others, but Griner blocked everything they threw up when they approached the rim. Can Brown do that? Has she ever had to do that? Can she be screened away from the layup attempt more easily than Griner could be? She may have to play as well as Griner in that role for Baylor to win the game.

In a Baylor-UConn matchup in the Final Four, I wouldn’t give either team more than a 53-47 win probability. The game might not be decided by single digits; in fact, either team might win by 15 if things went well for them. But my speculation is that five or six destroyers should be able to sink two battleships.

 

[msf22b]

I didn't know that Baylor was on the schedule.

 

[Centerstream]

I didn't know that Baylor was on the schedule.

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Somewhere in the last week, EastTexasTrash posted his opinion that Baylor would defeat UConn if they played because UConn would be unable to contain Baylor’s inside game. I would have preferred to reply to that post, but I couldn’t locate it even after searching. Oh well ...

ETT is right to note that UConn hasn’t played anyone this year with an inside combination quite like Brown and Cox. South Carolina, with Wilson and Jennings, was probably the closest, but neither those two players nor the rest of the Gamecocks’ team quite measures up to what Baylor has (although Wilson may be the best player of the four just mentioned). Still, the UConn game plan for South Carolina is probably a reasonable preview of how they would approach a Baylor game. Basically, it boils down to positioning themselves on defense to prevent entry passes to the post, doing their best on the defensive boards while acknowledging that Baylor will probably get enough putback baskets to make UConn fans uncomfortable, and getting a major number of points off turnovers and in transition.

The game will probably be decided by whether Baylor’s second-chance points exceed or fall short of UConn’s transition points.

When UConn is in a half-court offense, everyone on the court should have a mobility advantage against both Brown and Cox, and that should open lots of opportunities for penetration and backdoor plays. It will undoubtedly take some acrobatic plays by Gabby, some quick 8-10 foot shots being made by Napheesa, rebounding at both ends by Azura, and of course a lot of 3-point accuracy by Lou / Kia / Crystal, to win the game. Basically the game will pit UConn’s destroyers against Baylor’s battleships, and I think the 3rd through 6th players for UConn (I’m not even sure who they are; it changes every game) have a distinct advantage over their counterparts from Baylor.

I remember a Baylor-UConn game in Connecticut back in the Griner days that did not end well for UConn. I think that was the game where Geno said afterwards that if freshman Stewart (who played 7 ineffective minutes) had not played at all, UConn probably would have won. But what I remember from watching that game is that Bria Hartley and Tiffany Hayes were beating their defenders with ease, and backdoor passes were being completed easily by Stef and others, but Griner blocked everything they threw up when they approached the rim. Can Brown do that? Has she ever had to do that? Can she be screened away from the layup attempt more easily than Griner could be? She may have to play as well as Griner in that role for Baylor to win the game.

In a Baylor-UConn matchup in the Final Four, I wouldn’t give either team more than a 53-47 win probability. The game might not be decided by single digits; in fact, either team might win by 15 if things went well for them. But my speculation is that five or six destroyers should be able to sink two battleships.

Interesting analysis. I believe UConn's mobility, 3pt shooting and team defense will be difficult for Baylor...but likewise twin towers are tough for any team to deal with. Also of note... Massey has a neutral court match up between UConn and Baylor at a 6 point margin of victory for UConn... the smallest mov prediction, and smallest win percentage (70 to 30) for any match up of UConn vs Baylor, Mississippi State, ND, Louisville, Texas, South Carolina, Oregon, etc.. pretty much all of the teams that most predict will survive to the Final 4. This is why of course most of us UConn faithful would love to see UConn hold down the overall #1 seed while Baylor and MSST be the #2 and #3 or at least have to play each other in the semi before the winner plays UConn in the Final.

 

[hussybulldog]

I am afraid Baylor has not been battled tested enough. If they can win over Texas thrice this season, then we can revisit this before the NCAA tournament starts. If they cannot achieve that, then they might all but be absent in Ohio.

 

[Bama fan]

Somewhere in the last week, EastTexasTrash posted his opinion that Baylor would defeat UConn if they played because UConn would be unable to contain Baylor’s inside game. I would have preferred to reply to that post, but I couldn’t locate it even after searching. Oh well ...

ETT is right to note that UConn hasn’t played anyone this year with an inside combination quite like Brown and Cox. South Carolina, with Wilson and Jennings, was probably the closest, but neither those two players nor the rest of the Gamecocks’ team quite measures up to what Baylor has (although Wilson may be the best player of the four just mentioned). Still, the UConn game plan for South Carolina is probably a reasonable preview of how they would approach a Baylor game. Basically, it boils down to positioning themselves on defense to prevent entry passes to the post, doing their best on the defensive boards while acknowledging that Baylor will probably get enough putback baskets to make UConn fans uncomfortable, and getting a major number of points off turnovers and in transition.

The game will probably be decided by whether Baylor’s second-chance points exceed or fall short of UConn’s transition points.

When UConn is in a half-court offense, everyone on the court should have a mobility advantage against both Brown and Cox, and that should open lots of opportunities for penetration and backdoor plays. It will undoubtedly take some acrobatic plays by Gabby, some quick 8-10 foot shots being made by Napheesa, rebounding at both ends by Azura, and of course a lot of 3-point accuracy by Lou / Kia / Crystal, to win the game. Basically the game will pit UConn’s destroyers against Baylor’s battleships, and I think the 3rd through 6th players for UConn (I’m not even sure who they are; it changes every game) have a distinct advantage over their counterparts from Baylor.

I remember a Baylor-UConn game in Connecticut back in the Griner days that did not end well for UConn. I think that was the game where Geno said afterwards that if freshman Stewart (who played 7 ineffective minutes) had not played at all, UConn probably would have won. But what I remember from watching that game is that Bria Hartley and Tiffany Hayes were beating their defenders with ease, and backdoor passes were being completed easily by Stef and others, but Griner blocked everything they threw up when they approached the rim. Can Brown do that? Has she ever had to do that? Can she be screened away from the layup attempt more easily than Griner could be? She may have to play as well as Griner in that role for Baylor to win the game.

In a Baylor-UConn matchup in the Final Four, I wouldn’t give either team more than a 53-47 win probability. The game might not be decided by single digits; in fact, either team might win by 15 if things went well for them. But my speculation is that five or six destroyers should be able to sink two battleships.

Good points there. I think Admiral Auriemma defeats Ensign Mulkey and torpedoes the Bears again. Like Luca Brasi, she sleeps with the fishes.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I didn't know that Baylor was on the schedule.

They aren't because Coach Mulkey dodges UConn. Jeff Walz does as well as Geno mentioned in his post-game press conference the other night.

 

[j66kicker]

Basically the game will pit UConn’s destroyers against Baylor’s battleships

Haha - I liked someone's characterization of Brown & McCowan as "aircraft carriers."

 

[Charliebball]

Let's put it this way...........as long as Baylor plays the two bigs together, it will take Baylor 15 - 20 seconds to get the ball inside to one of the them.............it will take UConn about 6 - 8 seconds to run the length of the floor in a five on three situation..................... many many times.......

 

[trb123]

Baylor vs UConn will be like Acheron vs Surprise in Master and Commander: The far side of the World.
Our players will need to play out of their skins to win this one.
I guess it is too much to hope for Kyla to be seized by a Stewart-like afflatus in the tournament.

 

[cbraarj]

They probably wouldnt play until the FF. With Baylors track record the last 5 years with no appearances. They should take it one game at a time!

 

[oldude]

The challenge for Baylor would be much the same as SC. Kia, Danger, Lou and Gabby at times will overplay their perimeter players making it very difficult for them to feed their bigs in the post. If you can’t get the ball to Brown and Cox down low, it’s difficult for them to do much damage.

If you think back to the SC game, UConn was so tenacious on defense that Ty Harris and the other SC guards couldn’t even set up to initiate their offense. The result was TO’s, bad shots and an insurmountable lead by the end of the half.

 

[bags27]

Baylor vs UConn will be like Acheron vs Surprise in Master and Commander: The far side of the World.
Our players will need to play out of their skins to win this one.
I guess it is too much to hope for Kyla to be seized by a Stewart-like afflatus in the tournament.

Great summary of the issue: it's really not clear how UConn will play against 2 reasonably talented bigs; for sure, UConn will play in foul trouble;
and a great reference to a fabulous book (and series)! brings back wonderful memories of a year reading through the series.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Haha - I liked someone's characterization of Brown & McCowan as "aircraft carriers."

Kia is a Canadian Corvette, Gabby a Cruiser and Danger a PT. If Brown and McGowan are "carriers" they are slower, can't turn quickly, are useless without aircraft, i.e. they lack mobility.

 

[eebmg]

For me, foul trouble is the great unknown. If there were no foul limits and we were allowed to play our defense at full capacity against the bigs, I would have far less anxiety.

 

[Charliebball]

For me, foul trouble is the great unknown. If there were no foul limits and we were allowed to play our defense at full capacity against the bigs, I would have far less anxiety.

fouls could be an issue for UConn but they are often an issue for Brown who is hampered with foul trouble quite frequently................you know Geno will attack her from the opening minutes with the goal to keep her off the court for a good part of the game..................once Cox is on the court alone they will draw her out of the lane and run the offense unencumbered

 

[HopJim]

Let's put it this way......as long as Baylor plays the two bigs together, it will take Baylor 15 - 20 seconds to get the ball inside to one of the them...it will take UConn about 6 - 8 seconds to run the length of the floor in a five on three situation...... many many times..

Living in Texas, I get all the Baylor games (I pay for SNY to get my Huskie games). What many are missing is the improved guard play that has made the entire Baylor team better on both offense and particularly defense. Should they play, I would forecast a UConn win but would not mind if some other team knocked Baylor off in playoffs. UConn would need to hit 3's and outscore Baylor since when playing well, Brown and Cox almost unstoppable.

 

[Charliebball]

Living in Texas, I get all the Baylor games (I pay for SNY to get my Huskie games). What many are missing is the improved guard play that has made the entire Baylor team better on both offense and particularly defense. Should they play, I would forecast a UConn win but would not mind if some other team knocked Baylor off in playoffs. UConn would need to hit 3's and outscore Baylor since when playing well, Brown and Cox almost unstoppable.

I agree, I'd prefer to not have to play Baylor or Miss State until the finals and while those two bigs will make it difficult, UConn's superior speed and agility in the front court is something Baylor has not seen this year.......... Brown and Cox really take their time getting back on defense and there are questions about Brown's ability to stay out of foul trouble and her overall fitness especially if she is forced to play 35 minutes plus.........Cox has definitely learned how to deal with her diabetes but again can she handle the constant up and down that she will be confronted with by UConn...........of course this is all based on the Huskies being a healthy team were they to eventually play.........

 

[Crossover]

Living in Texas, I get all the Baylor games (I pay for SNY to get my Huskie games). What many are missing is the improved guard play that has made the entire Baylor team better on both offense and particularly defense. Should they play, I would forecast a UConn win but would not mind if some other team knocked Baylor off in playoffs. UConn would need to hit 3's and outscore Baylor since when playing well, Brown and Cox almost unstoppable.

"When playing well, Brown and Cox [are] almost unstoppable" when they get to their spots and receive the ball on time and on target. Whether that happens against UCONN remains to be seen. I'm betting not. UCONN's defense is a thing.

 

[HuskylnSC]

Against Baylor UConn should score on Baylor, the motion offense and transition speed will be too much for Baylor to stop. Will Baylor score enough? They can if they run their half court and rebound. So to beat Baylor, the UConn guards must be disruptive. They much push the Baylor guards back and make the offense start further from the basket then they are used to. If the bigs don't come out to get the ball, the longer inlet passes are ripe for deflections and steals. If they come out, they are not shooting in their comfort zone or must put the ball on the floor. The next key is blocking out to keep Baylor second shots to a minimum.

My call UConn by 15

 

[Bigboote]

Against Baylor UConn should score on Baylor, the motion offense and transition speed will be too much for Baylor to stop. Will Baylor score enough? They can if they run their half court and rebound. So to beat Baylor, the UConn guards must be disruptive. They much push the Baylor guards back and make the offense start further from the basket then they are used to. If the bigs don't come out to get the ball, the longer inlet passes are ripe for deflections and steals. If they come out, they are not shooting in their comfort zone or must put the ball on the floor. The next key is blocking out to keep Baylor second shots to a minimum.

My call UConn by 15

Good analysis. I'd augment that the dangerous thing about Cox and Brown together is that Cox is a really good passer and can also hit the long shot. Assuming that it's Collier and Williams guarding them, I think one or the other can get a hand on the entry pass a good percentage of the time. Gabby never ceases to amaze me in denying the entry pass. She's able to get around the slower, bigger big and get a hand on the ball without fouling. The danger of that is your last remark, that she'll be out of rebounding position if someone is able to get the ball and shoot.

I'm not making any predictions, neither whether they'll play each other nor who will win. Baylor hasn't played UConn or MSST; whom they'd play in the potential semifinal depends on what happens to them, MSST, Notre Dame, and Louisville over the next few weeks.

 

[Carnac]

Haha - I liked someone's characterization of Brown & McCowan as "aircraft carriers."

You're welcome.

 

[ME Husky Fan]

If this match-up ever takes place the kid who scares me is Kristy Wallace. She's a bull in a china shop type. She doesn't ever stop and she can be physical, almost to a fault. If she's on it presents yet another option for Baylor. It would be an interesting game for certain.

 

[HopJim]

If this match-up ever takes place the kid who scares me is Kristy Wallace. She's a bull in a china shop type. She doesn't ever stop and she can be physical, almost to a fault. If she's on it presents yet another option for Baylor. It would be an interesting game for certain.

Good assessment. When Kristy gets hot, an "X-factor" that is difficult to stop. Too many teams focus on Brown and Cox and Wallace gets in rhythm, often putting big numbers on board. Tenacious on defense as well-likely to be on Lou if they play.

 

[Carnac]

"When playing well, Brown and Cox [are] almost unstoppable" when they get to their spots and receive the ball on time and on target. Whether that happens against UCONN remains to be seen. I'm betting not. UCONN's defense is a thing.

Being an "optimist", I'd like to think that UConn could shut down Cox and Brown for at least 2 quarters as they recently did against Durr and Hines-Allen (Louisville). If they can do that, It will be very hard for Baylor to play catch up, because UConn is not going to stop scoring. UConn has the speed and ability to take away whatever it is you like to do, or whoever your main "go to" is. One must remember that no other team plays defense like UConn. As Andy Landers said Monday during the half time show, you can't prepare for the kind of defense that UConn plays. Teams cannot replicate it. It's almost like getting caught up in a riptide. You can't appreciate the effects of a riptide until you've been in one.