Here's my take on a top 10. I feel strongly about ND and Baylor at the top and not so strongly about the teams that follow. I keep thinking I have UConn too high at #3 but I can't settle on another team or two I'd rank above them at this time.
UConn will be the only team with players who have won at least one national championship. Unfortunately, only one of those players -- Nurse -- played a big role in winning multiple (2) championships; Williams, Collier and Samuelson (through 1st half of semis) played smaller roles in one championship. Still, the experience of seeing and living what it takes to win a championship shouldn't be discounted.
If, as expected, a team other than UConn win the championship, it will be the first one for the players on that team. It may be that group of players first final four. This leads to the biggest unknown in all of this: which players will play well at the biggest moment on the biggest stage? This is why I favor ND over Baylor and why I think UConn will still be in the mix. Only ND and UConn have players who have played for the national championship.
Here goes for now. My reasons why a particular team will or won't win the championship are not necessarily in order of importance.
1) Notre Dame
It's time for ND to win a championship. The Domers had two golden opportunities to win it all in 2011 and 2013 and let those opportunities slip through their tense fingers. The talent is there; Muffet needs to figure out how to get her team to play with confidence and poise on the big stage.
Why ND will win it all -- 1) The play and experience of Allen and Turner. Their two-player game is terrific. 2) Mabrey and Ogunbowale have shown they can make shots. 3) Westbeld is a terrific glue player who can make shots, pass well and grab some rebounds. 4) Young and Boley should help off the bench. 5) Turner as a rim protector can make up for ND's defensive deficiencies.
Why ND won't win it all -- 1) Defense. Stanford exposed ND defensively, finding holes in ND's zone. I'm not sure next season's team will be much better defensively, though I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis in the off season. 2) Turner's lack of versatility on offense. Although Turner's shoulder surgery is a good thing insofar as it should eliminate the risk of another in-season injury, the rehabilitation period will not allow Turner to work on her face-up game. She really needs to develop that part of her game to make herself harder to guard and not be so dependent on her teammates getting her the ball in the right spot. Erica McCall, a big who has made tremendous strides in her face-up game, outplayed Turner in the S16 game and I never thought I'd say that. 3) The sophomores. Ogunbowale and to a lesser extent Mabrey need to learn how to play with others. 4) Nerves. It's been an issue for ND teams in previous Final Fours.
2) Baylor.
Why Baylor will win it all -- 1) Alexis Jone is a dynamic scorer who has shown she can carry a team. 2) Baylor's size in the post. 3) Baylor plays terrific defense.
Why Baylor won't win it all -- 1) Niya Johnson graduates. I'm not sure who will replace Niya but I can't imagine any new starter at the point will run Baylor's offense as well as Johnson did. If the new point can shoot from the perimeter that will be a big improvement and help Baylor's offense. Alexis Jones can play point but her first instinct is to score, not run the offense. Plus, she turns the ball over too much. 2) Floor spacing. Baylor's big post players are easier to defend if the perimeter players are not taking and making 3s. Baylor shot 1-5 on three-pointers in the loss to Oregon State. Moving Davis to the wing (and playing Cox at the 4) only exacerbates the spacing problem as Davis is most comfortable around the rim. Oregon State held Baylor to 57 points because Baylor wasn't able to spread Oregon State out defensively.
3) UConn
Why UConn will win it all -- 1) Geno. 2) At least a few players have the experience of making it to a final four and
winning a championship. 3) Nurse, Samuelson, Collier and Williams are a core group of versatile players who can score in a variety of ways. Nurse and Samuelson and Collier look like big-time players who are unafraid of the big moments on the big stage. 3) Gabby Williams plays with confidence and doesn't let adversity shake that confidence. Geno has said she'll be the key to next season. 4) Dangerfield plays beyond her years. 5) Butler figures out what she needs to do: not foul, set screens, rebound, block shots and make open shots.
Why UConn won't win it all -- 1) Inexperience at the point. Teams with freshman point guards don't win championships. Nurse can play the point but I think she and the team are better if she doesn't. 2) Lack of solid post play. Before last season I didn't think Butler would start or even play as much as many here because a lineup that included Stewart, Tuck and Butler would have produced poor floor-spacing offensively and create terrible match-ups on defense. With Stewart and Tuck gone, Butler will need to play and she has a lot of work to do. I think she'll have difficulty staying on the floor (fouls) against teams with good post players. 3) Samuelson, Collier and Williams will be asked to produce more than they had to last season when they deferred to the Big 3 of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson . It will be too much to ask.
4) Ohio State
Why Ohio State will win it all -- 1) Mitchell makes a lot of the many shots she'll take. 2) Talent up and down the roster.
Why Ohio State won't win it all -- 1) McGuff. 2) Chemistry. The game is played with only one ball and when Ohio State is on offense that ball belongs to Mitchell. The other good players (Hart, Cooper, Harper, Mavunga, Calhoun) may not be willing to accept how many shots Mitchell will take and how little they get to touch the ball. 3) Mitchell misses a lot of the many shots she will take.
5) Texas
Why Texas will win it all -- 1) Trio of McCarty, Atkins and Higgs. 2) Joyner Holmes plays beyond her years.
Why Texas won't win it all -- 1) Too few championship caliber players. 2) No replacement for Boyette. 3) Holmes too young to lead team to championship.
6) Stanford
Why Stanford will win it all -- 1) Tara. 2) All key players return, including a much improved Erica McCall.
Why Stanford won't win it all -- 1) Defense. Stanford will need to outscore opponents. 2) Inconsistent guard play.
7) South Carolina
Why South Carolina will win it all -- 1) Post tandem of Wilson and Coates. Aja Wilson had a terrific sophomore season and should get better. Alaina Coates should also continue to improve. 2) I can't come up with a 2nd reason so I'll go with Alisha Gray since I like her game. She'll be every bit as good as Mitchell was as a senior.
Why South Carolina won't win it all -- 1) Point guard. Cuevas. Freshman Harris may be good (I have no idea) but she isn't going to step in as a freshman and lead the team to a championship. South Carolina's best players are dependent on others getting them the ball. 2) Lack of perimeter shooting other than Gray. Against Syracuse Wilson and Coates combined for 33 points and 26 rebounds and South Carolina still found a way to lose. 3) Kaela Davis. I'm not a fan. During her first 2 years at Georgia Tech she took too many shots, made too few of those too many shots, turned the ball over a lot and fouled too much. I don't believe she's a championship-caliber player.
8) Louisville
Why Louisville will win it all -- 1) Hines continue her growth as a player. 2) Mariya Moore decides to play hard on both ends. 3) Asia Durr proves to be as good as predicted. 4) Someone gives Louisville a solid post presence.
Why Louisville won't win it all -- 1) No team with Briahanna Jackson in the back court will win a championship. 2) Mariya Moore decides not to play hard on both ends. 3) Post play. Charley Creme mentions Cierra Johnson. She may have a nice career at Louisville but I don't see her as a difference maker in the post next season. 4) Poor defense.
9) Maryland
Why Maryland will win it all -- Brionna Jones and Shatori-Kimbrough are an excellent inside-outside tandem.
Why Maryland won't win it all -- Lack of an experienced point guard.
10) UCLA
Why UCLA will win it all -- 1) Jordin Canada is a tremendous point guard. 2) Monique Billings.
Why UCLA won't win it all -- 1) With Fields gone there is no third scorer (guard/wing) to complement Canada and Billings.
