Official 2016-17 rankings thread

[SCGamecock]

I really like your list. Too much love for Ohio State. I think they are going to really miss Alston and I don't see a replacement for her on the team. UCLA was a really good selection. They have great potential next season.

Thanks! Yea, I questioned myself putting Ohio State up that high but I really like the transfers they're adding plus their freshmen. They'll be a completely different team next year with more options besides Mitchell.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Thanks! Yea, I questioned myself putting Ohio State up that high but I really like the transfers they're adding plus their freshmen. They'll be a completely different team next year with more options besides Mitchell.

SC - I like Ohio State too. However, I question whether the coach can put together the pieces. I see a lot of Tennessee in the dribbling and star system. I think Geno can have a lesser team on paper and outcoach Ohio State.

 

[BuckLucas]

I agree that Ohio State will match anyone on paper.. However your coaching concern has validity. Not easy to coach so many stars. They will have to buy in to challenge the blue bloods..

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I really like your list. Too much love for Ohio State. I think they are going to really miss Alston and I don't see a replacement for her on the team. UCLA was a really good selection. They have great potential next season.

My take:

1) Notre Dame
2) Baylor
3) Ohio State
4) Texas
5) Louisville
6) Connecticut
7) Maryland
8) Stanford

We don't have a post player. We can't go far without a big presence in the center. I think Coach Geno knows that, and that was why he permitted Butler to transfer in. Otherwise, he wouldn't have OK'd the move.

We need to wait for the 2017 class for a center and perhaps a forward or two to consider seriously a run for a title. It's all on Gabby next year, and that's too much to ask of her.

 

[nd2tty]

1. Notre Dame
2. Baylor
3. UConn
4. Texas
5. Stanford
6. UCLA
7. Maryland
8. Ohio State
9. Louisville
10. South Carolina

 

[grumpert]

Since a few are already talking about this...

Our pal TerpWomenFan has entered the fray with this:

1. Notre Dame
2. UConn
3. Baylor
4. South Carolina
5. Maryland
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Louisville
9. Syracuse
10. Oregon State

And Richard Deitsch from SI has:

1. Notre Dame
2. Baylor
3. UConn
4. Stanford
5. Ohio State

How can you rank Notre Dame #1 when CT. is the umber #1.. all speculation.

 

[JoePgh]

We don't have a post player. We can't go far without a big presence in the center.

I think that is an oft-repeated fallacy, which has been disproven. The paradigmatic example is the UConn 2002 team, which had no player over 6-2 and was undefeated and won a National Championship.

If you want to do worst-case analysis, let's assume that Natalie doesn't improve over what we have seen and that Kyla Irwin either isn't ready or turns out to be no more talented than Natalie. That would leave a starting line-up of Lou, Napheesa, Gabby, Kia, and some amalgam of Chong / Dangerfield / Bent (unless one of them clearly emerges).

Such a team could be successful offensively in basically the same way as this year's team, by setting up with 5 out and exploiting mobility to get past bigger but far slower opponents. Offense really shouldn't be a problem.

The issues would be defense and rebounding. But we have certainly seen Napheesa and Gabby, in particular, get rebounds repeatedly in traffic against larger but less agile opponents. They will continue to do that and will get better at it. Lou learned perimeter defense this year, and she can probably learn post defense and rebounding next year, and be just as good by the end of the year at those skills as she was at the end of this year as a perimeter defender. Kia will get more rebounds than any guard is entitled to.

The lack of a big post will make next year's team inferior to the teams of the last three years, but remember that those teams were beating quality opponents by 30 with some regularity. Will the lack of a post cost them 30 points a game? Even if it (hypothetically) costs them 10 points a game, that means that there might be 2 or 3 losses next year, by narrow margins -- where some last-second tactics might turn the tide anyway.

I would say that even under the stated worst-case hypotheses, UConn would be favored to make the Final Four, and would have perhaps a 30-40% chance for an NC. And if either Natalie or Kyla Irwin offers a surprise on the positive side (maybe providing 15-20 solid minutes off the bench), those odds would improve.

 

[Bill In Georgia]

Notre Dame and Baylor will be loaded. I think Young may be a superstar. The pressure is on the Irish. Cox is a nice addition for the Bears, but how is their guard play after Jones leaves? And Davis also has just 1 year left.

I like our chances. We have Lou and they don't.

All eyes are on Morgan, if she comes back for her 5th NC, if CD and the trainers get Butler to a vertical of 8 inches, and double her arm strength, UConn will move into a #1 ranking before its over and probably win it's 5th in a row..Just way too much TRAINED talent on the floor.

 

[nd2tty]

All eyes are on Morgan, if she comes back for her 5th NC, if CD and the trainers get Butler to a vertical of 8 inches, and double her arm strength, UConn will move into a #1 ranking before its over and probably win it's 5th in a row..Just way too much TRAINED talent on the floor.

Been celebrating too much in the last 36 hours? Morgan is going pro.

 

[Vowelguy]

I think that is an oft-repeated fallacy, which has been disproven. The paradigmatic example is the UConn 2002 team, which had no player over 6-2 and was undefeated and won a National Championship.

Uhh well Cash-Jones-Williams was a once in a lifetime front line. Not the best example.

At most there are 4 interior players for next year - Collier, Gabby, Butler, and Irwin. The latter two are unproven, and while Gabby is amazing, can she guard someone 6'5" ? UConn of course will have the personnel against most teams, but a team with a particularly big frontline seems like a tall order (ha).

 

[HopJim]

Hey WBBfan1 -I think Lou helped UConn this year. I would say others might agree. Well, Cox is a Lou kind of kid. A #1, hi BBIQ, and very versatile. She could play the 3-4 or 5. She is a better athlete and smarter than Brown & Montpeiler?. Cox could be the 4 and Davis move to the 3--or vice versa. The biggest question for many of us is--in the early season how does Baylor adapt and learn the new roles and rotation without their super point guard and her 12 assists a game. If UConn plays them early it will be a very close game.

Travel through Waco a lot and see many of Baylor games. Agree with your assessment. Cox will add quite a bit of flexibility to what this year was a good but somewhat mechanical frontcourt. Won't be as easy to guard. Not sure the match up in 2016-2018 favors UConn.

 

[bballnut90]

Here's my take:
1. Notre Dame. The last 4 offseasons they've lost All-Americans/top 4 WNBA draft picks (2012: Novosel/Peters, 2013: Diggins, 2014:/McBride, 2015: Loyd) but going into next year, they are going to be STACKED with possibly their best and deepest squad ever. Allen is the top returning point guard in the nation, Mabrey and Ogunbowale were two of the top freshmen, Westbeld is a really solid 4 and Turner should be a candidate for POY next year. They also have 3 new players who should break into the rotation, and all are capable of winning starting spots. Jackie Young is an explosive scoring machine, Boley might be the most polished offensive player in this class and could beat out Westbeld for the 4 spot, and Patberg was supposed to be the Irish's top freshman coming into this year prior to her ACL. Add in one of the best coaches in WCBB and you have the early title favorite for 2016-17.

2. Baylor. Another team that will be ridiculously loaded. I'll be stunned if no one transfers going into next year. They lose Niya Johnson who did a great job distributing the ball, but everyone else is back and they bring in the top recruit and a top 10 guard in Natalie Chou. Alexis Jones is one of the best returning guards in the country, Nina Davis should also be a candidate for POY, and their terrific freshmen posts will be back once again.

3. Connecticut. They lose their big 3 and have major question marks in the post, but they have Geno coaching and a slew of really talented players. Gabby Williams/Napheesa Collier will likely play the bulk of their minutes in the post, KLS should emerge as one of the premier shooters in the nation next year after a sizzling finish to her first season, and I'd look for Kia Nurse to make a big jump in production after a somewhat underwhelming sophomore year. Post play and point guard play are both question marks at this point. Nurse is capable of running the show but hasn't had to full time. Dangerfield projects to be the top point guard, but will she be able to take the reigns from day 1? And if Butler doesn't adjust, how will UCONN fare against teams with huge posts? They will not intimidate teams like they have the last several years, but anyone who thinks UCONN will be out of the title hunt next year isn't being realistic.

4. South Carolina. They have 4 potential All Americans at the 2-5 positions, but the point guard spot is a huge question mark. Is Cuevas ready to run the show? From what I've seen, that is a terrifying prospect if I'm an SC fan. Gray/Davis will make SC a much more dangerous team from the perimeter, and if the point guard mystery is solved, they'll be really really good next year.

5. Ohio State. Another ridiculously stacked team. Everyone is back sans Alston, and they have a dominant post in Mavunga coming on board as well as really really good transfers in Harper and Calhoun. How they all mesh together is the key, but on paper they should match up with anyone.

6. Louisville. They were vastly improved by the end of the season once Durr got healthy. With their big 3 of Moore/Hines-Allen/Durr all back, they should challenge ND for the ACC crown.

7. Stanford. Tara is one of the very best coaches in the nation and she has everyone returning from their Elite 8 squad. McCall has shown moments of greatness, and Thompson can emerge as one of the best 2 guards in the country. Next year they'll have their best squad in 3 seasons, and should be a major Final Four threat.

8. Texas. Another team that is loaded on paper. Holmes is going to make a difference in their post play, Higgs and Atkins will be a year older, and McCarty was quietly one of the better point guards in the nation last year.

9. Syracuse. They wont sneak up on anyone next year, but they'll bring back their pressure D and stud guard Alexis Peterson. Day will be back in the post, Sykes will be back as well. They'll need to replace 3 point bomber Brianna Butler and a really underrated player in Fondren, but they'll be a solid team again next year with their unique style.


10. Maryland. This ranking might be a bit low. They have a lot of really good players but were inconsistent this year. They gave UCONN their toughest game of the season, but they also really struggled against Ohio State and bowed out early in the tournament. A major key will be if Slocum can take over the point guard from day 1. Losing Moseley is a bigger blow than it was losing Lexi Brown if Slocum struggles to adjust to the college game. For as much as Frese is ragged on by fans, Maryland has overachieved teams the last 3 seasons and should be in the mix for another Final Four.

11. UCLA-great guard play, should challenge for the PAC
12. Tennessee-could be much higher or lower, lots of talent but total wildcard
13. Oregon State-outstanding coaching, Wiese returning
14. Washington-Plum and Osahor will be back
15. Kentucky-Epps is back

 

[Sluconn Husky]

but anyone who thinks UCONN will be out of the title hunt next year isn't being realistic.

They will have a ton of work to do to be a title contender. I'd place them 7th or 8th at the start.

 

[meyers7]

Notre Dame and Baylor will be loaded. I think Young may be a superstar. The pressure is on the Irish. Cox is a nice addition for the Bears, but how is their guard play after Jones leaves? And Davis also has just 1 year left.

It's Johnson that leaves. Jones returns. I think Jones will do fine at the point.

 

[Orangutan]

Here's my take:

3. Connecticut. And if Butler doesn't adjust, how will UCONN fare against teams with huge posts? They will not intimidate teams like they have the last several years, but anyone who thinks UCONN will be out of the title hunt next year isn't being realistic.

5. Ohio State. Another ridiculously stacked team. Everyone is back sans Alston, and they have a dominant post in Mavunga coming on board as well as really really good transfers in Harper and Calhoun. How they all mesh together is the key, but on paper they should match up with anyone.

Really, really good post. Thanks. Couple of thoughts:

I would flip Baylor and ND. Baylor finished #2 in both Sagarin and Massey this year, Johnson is their only loss, and they have an experienced point guard ready to go in Jones. ND is thin in the post and young on the wing and the whole enterprise depends on Turner's recovery from shoulder surgery. Though I will say that ND possibly has a higher ceiling. Depends on how good the youngsters are. I happen to think Jackie Young will be very good, very quick.

That's my big question about UConn. Rim protection and interior defense. It seems to me that Butler is key player in both of those departments so UConn needs her to play very well and play a good chunk of minutes. Not many teams will have the horses to exploit those potential weaknesses but the very best ones will.

I've said this before so I won't belabor it too much, but...Mavunga is good, but dominant...no. She's a clear step below folks like Turner, Wilson, Coates, etc. Harper flat out can't shoot and had more turnovers than assists. Calhoun was actively bad in her time at Duke. They are all big names from their HS recruiting rankings but I need to see more from those three on the floor (especially Harper and Calhoun) before I consider Ohio State ridiculously stacked.

 

[Sonny44]

I think that is an oft-repeated fallacy, which has been disproven. The paradigmatic example is the UConn 2002 team, which had no player over 6-2 and was undefeated and won a National Championship.

If you want to do worst-case analysis, let's assume that Natalie doesn't improve over what we have seen and that Kyla Irwin either isn't ready or turns out to be no more talented than Natalie. That would leave a starting line-up of Lou, Napheesa, Gabby, Kia, and some amalgam of Chong / Dangerfield / Bent (unless one of them clearly emerges).

Such a team could be successful offensively in basically the same way as this year's team, by setting up with 5 out and exploiting mobility to get past bigger but far slower opponents. Offense really shouldn't be a problem.

The issues would be defense and rebounding. But we have certainly seen Napheesa and Gabby, in particular, get rebounds repeatedly in traffic against larger but less agile opponents. They will continue to do that and will get better at it. Lou learned perimeter defense this year, and she can probably learn post defense and rebounding next year, and be just as good by the end of the year at those skills as she was at the end of this year as a perimeter defender. Kia will get more rebounds than any guard is entitled to.

The lack of a big post will make next year's team inferior to the teams of the last three years, but remember that those teams were beating quality opponents by 30 with some regularity. Will the lack of a post cost them 30 points a game? Even if it (hypothetically) costs them 10 points a game, that means that there might be 2 or 3 losses next year, by narrow margins -- where some last-second tactics might turn the tide anyway.

Can't agree with this IMO over simplified reasoning. The lack of a "post" changes the whole complexion of the game, affects every player's game in addition to game strategy. A knight is much more powerful with a rook or a queen next to it. Just the lack of rebounding alone on both ends will stress, frustrate and exhaust the rest of the team.

 

[JoePgh]

Uhh well Cash-Jones-Williams was a once in a lifetime front line. Not the best example.

At most there are 4 interior players for next year - Collier, Gabby, Butler, and Irwin. The latter two are unproven, and while Gabby is amazing, can she guard someone 6'5" ? UConn of course will have the personnel against most teams, but a team with a particularly big frontline seems like a tall order (ha).

Your list of "interior players" excludes a certain 6-3 individual from a beach town in southern California. You know, the one whose coach was urging her to "play like Stewie"? I don't expect her to be Breanna Stewart, but it would be equally mistaken to assume that her game next year will be solely or predominantly on the perimeter. I know that the low block is not her comfort zone, but Geno has already extended her comfort zone considerably and she has responded positively to that coaching. Remember, she wants to be the best player she can be, and being a competent player in the paint would contribute a lot to that goal.

If she could learn to play perimeter defense as a freshman, why could she not learn to play in the paint as a sophomore? (Not exclusively, of course -- that's what "play like Stewie" meant when Geno said it.)

It would not surprise me, particularly later in the year, to see her in the back line of UConn's defense. Would she be the intimidating, shot-blocking eraser there that Stewie and Kiah Stokes were? No, but doesn't mean that she would be a pushover. She would get her rebounds, as in fact she was doing in the NCAA tournament before her injury.

Again, considering UConn's MOV for the last two years, the team can afford to give up 10-15 more points that it did last year and still win all but a few games. And it can contend for another NC, though it would not be favored to win it.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Here's my take:
1. Notre Dame. The last 4 offseasons they've lost All-Americans/top 4 WNBA draft picks (2012: Novosel/Peters, 2013: Diggins, 2014:/McBride, 2015: Loyd) but going into next year, they are going to be STACKED with possibly their best and deepest squad ever. Allen is the top returning point guard in the nation, Mabrey and Ogunbowale were two of the top freshmen, Westbeld is a really solid 4 and Turner should be a candidate for POY next year. They also have 3 new players who should break into the rotation, and all are capable of winning starting spots. Jackie Young is an explosive scoring machine, Boley might be the most polished offensive player in this class and could beat out Westbeld for the 4 spot, and Patberg was supposed to be the Irish's top freshman coming into this year prior to her ACL. Add in one of the best coaches in WCBB and you have the early title favorite for 2016-17.

2. Baylor. Another team that will be ridiculously loaded. I'll be stunned if no one transfers going into next year. They lose Niya Johnson who did a great job distributing the ball, but everyone else is back and they bring in the top recruit and a top 10 guard in Natalie Chou. Alexis Jones is one of the best returning guards in the country, Nina Davis should also be a candidate for POY, and their terrific freshmen posts will be back once again.

3. Connecticut. They lose their big 3 and have major question marks in the post, but they have Geno coaching and a slew of really talented players. Gabby Williams/Napheesa Collier will likely play the bulk of their minutes in the post, KLS should emerge as one of the premier shooters in the nation next year after a sizzling finish to her first season, and I'd look for Kia Nurse to make a big jump in production after a somewhat underwhelming sophomore year. Post play and point guard play are both question marks at this point. Nurse is capable of running the show but hasn't had to full time. Dangerfield projects to be the top point guard, but will she be able to take the reigns from day 1? And if Butler doesn't adjust, how will UCONN fare against teams with huge posts? They will not intimidate teams like they have the last several years, but anyone who thinks UCONN will be out of the title hunt next year isn't being realistic.

4. South Carolina. They have 4 potential All Americans at the 2-5 positions, but the point guard spot is a huge question mark. Is Cuevas ready to run the show? From what I've seen, that is a terrifying prospect if I'm an SC fan. Gray/Davis will make SC a much more dangerous team from the perimeter, and if the point guard mystery is solved, they'll be really really good next year.

5. Ohio State. Another ridiculously stacked team. Everyone is back sans Alston, and they have a dominant post in Mavunga coming on board as well as really really good transfers in Harper and Calhoun. How they all mesh together is the key, but on paper they should match up with anyone.

6. Louisville. They were vastly improved by the end of the season once Durr got healthy. With their big 3 of Moore/Hines-Allen/Durr all back, they should challenge ND for the ACC crown.

7. Stanford. Tara is one of the very best coaches in the nation and she has everyone returning from their Elite 8 squad. McCall has shown moments of greatness, and Thompson can emerge as one of the best 2 guards in the country. Next year they'll have their best squad in 3 seasons, and should be a major Final Four threat.

8. Texas. Another team that is loaded on paper. Holmes is going to make a difference in their post play, Higgs and Atkins will be a year older, and McCarty was quietly one of the better point guards in the nation last year.

9. Syracuse. They wont sneak up on anyone next year, but they'll bring back their pressure D and stud guard Alexis Peterson. Day will be back in the post, Sykes will be back as well. They'll need to replace 3 point bomber Brianna Butler and a really underrated player in Fondren, but they'll be a solid team again next year with their unique style.


10. Maryland. This ranking might be a bit low. They have a lot of really good players but were inconsistent this year. They gave UCONN their toughest game of the season, but they also really struggled against Ohio State and bowed out early in the tournament. A major key will be if Slocum can take over the point guard from day 1. Losing Moseley is a bigger blow than it was losing Lexi Brown if Slocum struggles to adjust to the college game. For as much as Frese is ragged on by fans, Maryland has overachieved teams the last 3 seasons and should be in the mix for another Final Four.

11. UCLA-great guard play, should challenge for the PAC
12. Tennessee-could be much higher or lower, lots of talent but total wildcard
13. Oregon State-outstanding coaching, Wiese returning
14. Washington-Plum and Osahor will be back
15. Kentucky-Epps is back

Without a center, can we really be ranked 3rd in the nation? Ahead of South Carolina with its talented bigs? Ahead of Ohio State and all their talent? Is it really objective to suggest that our team will be better than Louisville, with its great guard play and its front court?

Are we seeing the future through rose-colored glasses? I'm as big a fan as anyone, but I recall that we weren't always this dominant. Just sayin'.....

 

[SCGamecock]

Really, really good post. Thanks. Couple of thoughts:

I would flip Baylor and ND. Baylor finished #2 in both Sagarin and Massey this year, Johnson is their only loss, and they have an experienced point guard ready to go in Jones. ND is thin in the post and young on the wing and the whole enterprise depends on Turner's recovery from shoulder surgery. Though I will say that ND possibly has a higher ceiling. Depends on how good the youngsters are. I happen to think Jackie Young will be very good, very quick.

That's my big question about UConn. Rim protection and interior defense. It seems to me that Butler is key player in both of those departments so UConn needs her to play very well and play a good chunk of minutes. Not many teams will have the horses to exploit those potential weaknesses but the very best ones will.

I've said this before so I won't belabor it too much, but...Mavunga is good, but dominant...no. She's a clear step below folks like Turner, Wilson, Coates, etc. Harper flat out can't shoot and had more turnovers than assists. Calhoun was actively bad in her time at Duke. They are all big names from their HS recruiting rankings but I need to see more from those three on the floor (especially Harper and Calhoun) before I consider Ohio State ridiculously stacked.

Good point. I guess I was just ranking teams by potential highest ceiling.. I think Ohio State COULD be very good if all things come together.. but you're right. We'll see..

 

[Fairfield Fan]

They will have a ton of work to do to be a title contender. I'd place them 7th or 8th at the start.

That sounds better to me. If, over the course of the season, Coach Geno is able to work his magic, and mold this team into a tough unit, then by tournament time we could do better. Perhaps. But losing five kids from this year's and last year's team, including four All-Americans, and the second-place finisher in the WNBA rookie of the year competition, we're not who we used to be. And the 6'3" KLS is not the power under the basket that the 6'3" Kia Stokes was.

 

[bballnut90]

Without a center, can we really be ranked 3rd in the nation? Ahead of South Carolina with its talented bigs? Ahead of Ohio State and all their talent? Is it really objective to suggest that our team will be better than Louisville, with its great guard play and its front court?

Are we seeing the future through rose-colored glasses? I'm as big a fan as anyone, but I recall that we weren't always this dominant. Just sayin'.....

South Carolina doesn't have a point guard, and Ohio State lost by 44 to UCONN this season. I'm not a UCONN fan by any means, but they were so far ahead of anyone this year and have a good core of talent returning. I'll be stunned if the knock out another undefeated season, but I think they have the horses, athletes and coaching to be a major title threat.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

South Carolina doesn't have a point guard, and Ohio State lost by 44 to UCONN this season. I'm not a UCONN fan by any means, but they were so far ahead of anyone this year and have a good core of talent returning. I'll be stunned if the knock out another undefeated season, but I think they have the horses, athletes and coaching to be a major title threat.

Have you looked at the hurtles the Huskies will have?

 

[CocoHusky]

If she could learn to play perimeter defense as a freshman, why could she (KLS) not learn to play in the paint as a sophomore? (Not exclusively, of course -- that's what "play like Stewie" meant when Geno said it.)

It would not surprise me, particularly later in the year, to see her in the back line of UConn's defense. Would she be the intimidating, shot-blocking eraser there that Stewie and Kiah Stokes were? She would get her rebounds, as in fact she was doing in the NCAA tournament before her injury.

Because she doesn't have the strength athleticism to play in the post. KLS is a skilled perimeter player would be a mistake to put her inside on defense or offense because she happens to be 6'3" tall.

 

[JordyG]

I don't know how other Irish fans feel, but I also root for the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Cubs. I'm well accustomed to being disappointed by sports.

As a lifelong Jet and Knick fan (Mets and an occasional glance at the Cubbies) I think I understand.

 

[Vowelguy]

I've got research to do, but here are my initial thoughts:

1) Baylor - Return 7 of their top 8 and add 2 of the top HS in the country (HG#1 Cox,#8 Chou)
2) N Dame - A starting 5 of Allen-Arike-Mabrey-Westbeld-Turner is pretty darn good. Add top HS Boley (#5), Young (#11), and injured frosh Patberg
3) Ohio St - Add transfer Mavunga whom I really like, plus HS McCoy (#10) and transfers Harper and Calhoun
4) Stanford - Everyone back

5) Louisville
6) Texas
7) UConn
8) UCLA
9) So Carolina
10) Maryland
11) Tennessee
12) Miss St