The big east needs to tell the schools that games will be scheduled 72 hous in advance. That way if three schools have a covid issue at that time, then 8 schools can play 4 games basically losing one game. If we have preset schedules we might lose three big east games if three schools can't play. All the schools should be prepared enough to plan a game plan for any other big east school in that time frame. If some schools get hit harder than others then they may play less games but there has to be flexibility.
O/U: How many games this season?
- Thread starter DAC17
- Start date
- Status
“Let’s pray the world is in a place where the NCAA even gets to make a decision” sounds pretty damn dramatic to me. Are you that obtuse? You’re sounding a pretty extreme alarm bell there sparky.
formerlurker
www.stjude.org
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2012
- Messages
- 5,747
- Reaction Score
- 28,240
Why not quote the post mine was in response to?
And I'm not going to get in an internet war with anyone let alone someone who uses the words obtuse and sparky as weapons.
- Joined
- May 15, 2019
- Messages
- 1,264
- Reaction Score
- 3,346
He used "sunshine" because he's an eternal optimist. And you, such a terrible pessimist, had the audacity to use "obtuse and sparky". Shame on you @uconngb
Obviously there will be bumps in the road , but at the very least , don’t we have time on our side ? What’s the big deal if season gets pushed into April or early May if there is a full shutdown fir a few weeks in January? What’s the burning rush to fit all these games in by early March? Why not give everyone some room on the back end of season? Because the flipside is , if you wanna jam everything in before March you might end up losing the entire season - who cares if it ends in May? I don’t - especially if the other option is a blown up season.
borninansonia
Neandertal
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 391
- Reaction Score
- 1,807
13 "regular season" games, no Big East tournament, and then 6 NCAA tournament games
Total of 19
Total of 19
BParkDog
I will see number 5.
- Joined
- Nov 28, 2020
- Messages
- 154
- Reaction Score
- 1,130
If the protocols remain the same as they are right now - that is, one positive 40 cycle PCR test means games get cancelled, then I'm going with 12 on the U/O, including post season.
PCR tests are very specific and very good at finding extremely small amounts of nucleic acid. Ran many when I was a gene jockey. If a person has even a tiny amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in his/her nose, then a 40 cycle PCR test is going to result in a + test result, and, given the specificity of nucleic acid sequences, it's fair to say that the target portion of the SARS-CoV-2 genome was in the subject's nose. But that doesn't mean the person was, at the time of testing, infected and capable of spreading the virus, which, ultimately, is all that matters to team sports. It just means there was nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2 in his/her nose. Could be residual from a prior infection. Could be resultant from a viral load that is extremely low, meaning the person is effectively non-contagious. Could be environmentally inert RNA.
If a positive test on a 40 cycle PCR amplification remains the standard, and a positive test means that the team cannot play and some period of quarantine is required, then the season is all but shot. No bubble is going to work, if you put 68 teams, which means, what? 2,000 people in one place. This isn't the NBA.
The only way I can see any meaningful basketball being played would be if they change the protocol to something like this:
1. Test regularly - daily if needed.
2. Anybody testing negative can play, regardless of "tracing" contacts.
3. Anybody testing positive sits for whatever the medically accepted minimum quarantine is OR until they have 2 repeated negative tests, whichever occurs sooner. Could be the same day in the case of false positives.
The problem, of course, is that we are not being guided completely by science here - most people are extremely emotional about this issue (in all directions), and that is going to heavily impact what happens going forward.
Further, how can any of us justify college sports if we believe that young people will significantly spread the virus and that virus hospitalization rates are unacceptably high? It seems to me plain that, if California is correct, and there is a current need for a one month stay-at-home lockdown and restricted public interaction, then how on earth can we justify thousands of student athletes being face to face, maskless, transferring respiratory droplets to each other while heavily exerting themselves? Of course we can't. That's a non sequitur.
Could there be a vaccine that saves the season? Maybe. Would love to see it.
But even with a vaccine, there are still going to be Covid-19 associated deaths. Even with widespread availability of an influenza vaccine, about 40,000 people die every year in the U.S. from the flu.
How is the country going to manage SARS-CoV-2 after vaccine administration begins? If we can reduce Covid-19 associated deaths to 40,000 a year, do we then go back to sports? Or is 40,000 too many? And if we can get that number to 20,000 if we have permanent stay-at-home, distancing, masking, and no sports, is that the right answer?
On a side note, a former VP of Pfizer (Dr. Michael Yeadon) just filed an emergency petition with the EMA asking for a halt to all SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials in the EU, so nothing is a given . . .
PCR tests are very specific and very good at finding extremely small amounts of nucleic acid. Ran many when I was a gene jockey. If a person has even a tiny amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in his/her nose, then a 40 cycle PCR test is going to result in a + test result, and, given the specificity of nucleic acid sequences, it's fair to say that the target portion of the SARS-CoV-2 genome was in the subject's nose. But that doesn't mean the person was, at the time of testing, infected and capable of spreading the virus, which, ultimately, is all that matters to team sports. It just means there was nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2 in his/her nose. Could be residual from a prior infection. Could be resultant from a viral load that is extremely low, meaning the person is effectively non-contagious. Could be environmentally inert RNA.
If a positive test on a 40 cycle PCR amplification remains the standard, and a positive test means that the team cannot play and some period of quarantine is required, then the season is all but shot. No bubble is going to work, if you put 68 teams, which means, what? 2,000 people in one place. This isn't the NBA.
The only way I can see any meaningful basketball being played would be if they change the protocol to something like this:
1. Test regularly - daily if needed.
2. Anybody testing negative can play, regardless of "tracing" contacts.
3. Anybody testing positive sits for whatever the medically accepted minimum quarantine is OR until they have 2 repeated negative tests, whichever occurs sooner. Could be the same day in the case of false positives.
The problem, of course, is that we are not being guided completely by science here - most people are extremely emotional about this issue (in all directions), and that is going to heavily impact what happens going forward.
Further, how can any of us justify college sports if we believe that young people will significantly spread the virus and that virus hospitalization rates are unacceptably high? It seems to me plain that, if California is correct, and there is a current need for a one month stay-at-home lockdown and restricted public interaction, then how on earth can we justify thousands of student athletes being face to face, maskless, transferring respiratory droplets to each other while heavily exerting themselves? Of course we can't. That's a non sequitur.
Could there be a vaccine that saves the season? Maybe. Would love to see it.
But even with a vaccine, there are still going to be Covid-19 associated deaths. Even with widespread availability of an influenza vaccine, about 40,000 people die every year in the U.S. from the flu.
How is the country going to manage SARS-CoV-2 after vaccine administration begins? If we can reduce Covid-19 associated deaths to 40,000 a year, do we then go back to sports? Or is 40,000 too many? And if we can get that number to 20,000 if we have permanent stay-at-home, distancing, masking, and no sports, is that the right answer?
On a side note, a former VP of Pfizer (Dr. Michael Yeadon) just filed an emergency petition with the EMA asking for a halt to all SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trials in the EU, so nothing is a given . . .
BParkDog
I will see number 5.
- Joined
- Nov 28, 2020
- Messages
- 154
- Reaction Score
- 1,130
Does this mean that you think we're going to play a full season?
I'd absolutely love for you to be correct on that.
20
DAC17
Once upon a time, would never miss a game
- Joined
- Nov 28, 2016
- Messages
- 155
- Reaction Score
- 232
I would too, but then it depends on the quality of the opponents. Nothing is a given this year.
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2014
- Messages
- 1,427
- Reaction Score
- 4,195
Undefeated season!
McLovin
Gangstas, what's up?
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2018
- Messages
- 2,966
- Reaction Score
- 18,880
This didn’t age well.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2011
- Messages
- 12,757
- Reaction Score
- 20,990
I’ve said all along that we will play 16. I still think that is doable. While I would shut down until February and move things back so you can have April Agita instead of March Madness, an alternate would be to set the schedule as an East West thing for a few weeks. Try to minimize travel. So have a pod of UConn, Providence St Johns and Seton Hall, for example. Play each team twice. Just like everything else, the fewer outside interactions you have the better. I’m not that worried about having to play some number to make the tourney this year. If it happens it will be in effect a giant invitational. Team goes 11-1 or 10-2 they will and should get in. RPI and its offspring are more meaningless that usual this year because of the lack of interleague play and the numerous interruptions in the schedule. K’s proposal for an open tourney actually might make sense this year. Start April 1 with pall 300 plus D1 teams and see who is left by May 1.
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2014
- Messages
- 1,395
- Reaction Score
- 14,267
Yea not the best post looking back on it but still think we get in more than 8-12 games which was a pretty common guess range on this thread
temery
What?
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
- Messages
- 20,964
- Reaction Score
- 41,909
Isn't this thread four days old? Very few posts age well on the internet, especially after four days. This one has aged well, all things considered.
Tough call ..Maybe regional pods for BE..Like a Northeast BE pod/bubble scenario.. Including Nova.. And a Midwest BE pod/bubble..Limited travel between the two pods for BE teams if at all....OOC games would need to be given great scrutiny.. Geographic proximity has a high value and preferably with access to a previously vetted bubble site as the game site..I think we'll know more once we get through the Holiday surge scenario that Fauci is predicting.. If we get through that in decent shape.. Still think 15-17 games.. Tournament may have to be pushed out to April/May per Pitino suggestion to be safer for all involved..Health and safety is what matters.
Last edited:
- Status