Louisville doesn't deserve a #1 seed, but they're every bit as good as Arizona, Kansas, Duke, 'Nova, and everybody else being considered. Say what you will about Russ Smith, but he's a great, great college player. Montrezl Harrel has quietly been emerging into a best over the last month or so - there may not be a better big man in college basketball at this point. Luke Hancock has had an up and down season, but anybody who says they aren't terrified when he touches the ball is laying. Jones and Blackshear are capable of scoring 15+ if they have to. Rozier and Van Treese are both good role players. And most importantly, there isn't a coach in the country better than Pitino as of today. His press is beginning to wreck havoc again after it struggled a bit earlier in the season, and his array of zones are as bewildering as ever. He's got that program operating on all cylinders right now.
The fact of the matter is we won't know how good Wichita State really is until the coming weeks. They've been tearing through the Missouri Valley conference with ease, but nobody is willing to declare them the favorite because they haven't played anybody of note since December. The tournament will either define them as a historically great team, an overrated pretender that was exposed as soon as they played somebody with a pulse, or most likely something in between. As of now, though, they deserve the #1 seed.
The only team you can make the argument for as a legitimately great team as of today is Florida. They stormed through the SEC much in the same way Wichita State rolled over everybody in their conference, except, the SEC actually has teams that will be dancing. One of their losses was to a really good Wisconsin team on the road without their most in-expendable player, Scottie Wilbekin, and another key cog, Dorian Finney-Smith. And obviously Shabazz beat them on a buzzer beater.
And yet still, I certainly don't view Florida as any sort of juggernaut that is immune from an upset in the sweet 16, or perhaps even sooner. For as well-coached and cohesive as they are, they have a hard time scoring the ball sometimes, and even more glaring, they really don't have anybody who can create for themselves consistently. They may very well win the title, but if they do they'll do it unconventionally.
Lastly, don't for a second count out Michigan State. I don't care how bad they've looked in recent weeks - Izzo is a magician, and no four year player under him has ever failed to reach the final four. Injuries have derailed their bid for a protected seed, but Dawson, Payne, and Appling are all back now, and starting to gel again. Even in a loss at the buzzer today in Columbus, it's easy to see why they're going to be such a tough out. If the season ended today, they, along with Louisville, Florida, and Arizona, would be my picks to reach Dallas.
