Nova Game | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Nova Game

CTBasketball said:
Wooga Poplar scares me the most because Stewart, Ross, and especially Ball have been beyond abysmal on defense.
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I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).
 
Marat said:
That makes more sense.
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Does it?

Implies we'd be like a 2 point favorite on a neutral floor or only 5-6 point favorite at home.

Or they're giving Nova an insane home court advantage.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Does it?

Implies we'd be like a 2 point favorite on a neutral floor or only 5-6 point favorite at home.

Or they're giving Nova an insane home court advantage.
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Lot of sense - we are 4 points better than them in the KP and home court is usually worth 3. -1 Huskies nails it.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).
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Let’s not forget Ball and Ross/Stewart have had trouble guarding players from Le Moyne. Wooga is a step up…
 
This may be the most interesting matchup to date in terms of curiosity to how Dan Hurley gameplans. The gameplan defensively is clear as day, so it's just a matter if we can execute. If we get torched by Dixon/Poplar and they account for their standard 45-50 points/60% of their overall scoring, will be a very strong suggestion that we just can't defend. Dying to see what Hurley dials up and if this crew is up to the challenge. Fun.

UConn a 1 point dog now on DK, KP also has them losing 78-77. Get to that bulletin board Danny.
 
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Every Villanova opponent sets out to shut down Dixon yet he still gets 26; he's beating all assignments. Going to be tough and it will be interesting to see how the best coaches in the country game plan against this challenge.
 
So UConn is the #16 of the top 16 according to Lunardi?
:p:p:p:p:eek::eek::eek:
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I guess I have a hard time getting worked up over a guy who choked that hard against us in the Final Four (0 points, 0-7 from the field, 0-4 from 3, 2 turnovers).
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Thanks for the jinx! I’m saying he goes off for 20 points +/- 2, Nova by 9.
 
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RuffRuff said:
I was going to say it’s because they can’t defend and then went to look up their KP and they are 50 better than us on KP defense :(.
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nova is the team that cant defend

Top 10 in both KP ORtg and DRtg:
1. Duke (ORtg 9/ DRtg 1)
4. ISU (ORtg 6 / DRtg 8)

Top 25 in both:
2. Auburn (ORtg 1 / DRtg 19)
3. Houston (ORtg 16 / DRtg 2)
5. Florida (ORtg 3 / DRtg 16)
7. Gonzaga (ORtg 7 / DRtg 21)
8. Kansas (ORtg 23 / DRtg 5)
10. Michigan (ORtg 10 / DRtg 17)
11. Marquette (ORtg 18 / DRtg 14)
12. Illinois (ORtg 19 / DRtg 13)
13. Arizona (ORtg 15 / DRtg 22)
15. Miss St (ORtg 17 / DRtg 25)

so 12 of the top 25 teams are elite on both sides of the ball. a lot of good well-rounded teams this year.

23. UConn (ORtg 2 / DRtg 131)
41. Nova (Ortg 5/ DRtg 180)

we match up well with Nova. elite offenses and average defenses but we're a bit better on both sides of the ball.
 
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I don't have a great feeling about tonight....we need to jump on them early and push the lead to 12-15 by halftime or we may just be in for a really long night. We're bound to drop a game our two without McNeeley and this is very likely one of them. Hopefully we can pull one out.
 
bendm said:
nova is the team that cant defend

Top 10 in both KP ORtg and DRtg:
1. Duke (ORtg 9/ DRtg 1)
4. ISU (ORtg 6 / DRtg 8)

Top 25 in both:
2. Auburn (ORtg 1 / DRtg 19)
3. Houston (ORtg 16 / DRtg 2)
5. Florida (ORtg 3 / DRtg 16)
7. Gonzaga (ORtg 7 / DRtg 21)
8. Kansas (ORtg 23 / DRtg 5)
10. Michigan (ORtg 10 / DRtg 17)
11. Marquette (ORtg 18 / DRtg 14)
12. Illinois (ORtg 19 / DRtg 13)
13. Arizona (ORtg 15 / DRtg 22)
15. Miss St (ORtg 17 / DRtg 25)

so 12 of the top 25 teams are elite on both sides of the ball. a lot of good well-rounded teams this year.

23. UConn (ORtg 2 / DRtg 131)
41. Nova (Ortg 5/ DRtg 180)
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Just a reminder about what it takes to move up and down the ladder for KenPom DRtg:

The DRtg number is just points allowed per 100 possessions. We're at 104.1 currently.

Note that each game we play, there are about 65-70 defensive possessions.

Tighten up the D to make just 2 more stops per game than what we're currently doing and that shaves roughly 5 off our current number.

99.1 pts/100 possessions represents a KP Top 50 defense!

I think that's doable!


Note: Yes, I know there are "magic" KP adjustments for strength of opponent, pace of play. etc. But they aren't going to make the key point above any different. Our raw DRtg is 102.
 
gars44 said:
If you had a nice $750K home near the Villanova campus would you want a bar like that in the neighborhood?
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The median home price in that area is about $1.4 million so it might be almost doubly hard to have a bar like that around there. :)
 
We've dominated Villanova both recently and lifetime head to head. We've lost only 1 Big East game in over a year. We are 3 point favorites, and Danny never loses close games. We are invincible!
 
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Hurleyman216 said:
I don't have a great feeling about tonight....we need to jump on them early and push the lead to 12-15 by halftime or we may just be in for a really long night. We're bound to drop a game our two without McNeeley and this is very likely one of them. Hopefully we can pull one out.
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Things to consider - they're coming off a 44 point beat down of DePaul at home. We are coming off a scare to a bad team at home. We're coming off our first adjustment game without McNeeley, so have the chance to marinate on that and make adjustments in practice. We have a much better coach, and with oppositional game tape halfway through the season, have the advantage at exploiting matchups. Students are out, so may be quiet.

Hassan should frustrate Brickus.
6'5" Poplar has rebounded the ball well averaging around 7 boards a game. He'll be a tough matchup given how poor we defend at the 2/3. Need to keep him off the glass.
Need to disrupt Dixon, keep him under 20, inside the 3 pt line. I'm actually wondering if Samson and his agility/length might be the best play, and to let AK guard their 5 when he's in. The guy really hasn't had an off night all year to this point, maybe he's due. His really big nights are a product of him taking more shots, as he shoots well in higher or lower volume. I would say play deny, but we don't have the players to do that, so disrupt it is. His numbers are truly amazing.

Huskies find a way - win by 5.
 
RuffRuff said:
Things to consider - they're coming off a 44 point beat down of DePaul at home. We are coming off a scare to a bad team at home. We're coming off our first adjustment game without McNeeley, so have the chance to marinate on that and make adjustments in practice. We have a much better coach, and with oppositional game tape halfway through the season, have the advantage at exploiting matchups. Students are out, so may be quiet.

Hassan should frustrate Brickus.
6'5" Poplar has rebounded the ball well averaging around 7 boards a game. He'll be a tough matchup given how poor we defend at the 2/3. Need to keep him off the glass.
Need to disrupt Dixon, keep him under 20, inside the 3 pt line. I'm actually wondering if Samson and his agility/length might be the best play, and to let AK guard their 5 when he's in. The guy really hasn't had an off night all year to this point, maybe he's due. His really big nights are a product of him taking more shots, as he shoots well in higher or lower volume. I would say play deny, but we don't have the players to do that, so disrupt it is. His numbers are truly amazing.

Huskies find a way - win by 5.
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DOOMED!!!
 
Nova also tends to foul more then get fouled (enigmatic of our stay on our 50th state).

Goals should be to go often to Johnson and Reed, Jr. and Karaban to get the harm and the bucket - ideally 1-2 on Dixon in the first half. Poplar as well - basically see which is guarding our guys and work that - combining that with wearing them out with long offensive sets will produce a better 2nd half.
 
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