Notre Dame in 2012-13.

[alexrgct]

Did I miss something? The series with UNC and Oklahoma did not get renewed, but the Duke series will continue as far as I know. With the recruiting classes that Duke has put together it is a series that ESPN would like to continue. I'd be very surprised if the Duke series doesn't continue.

Could be conflating either OU or UNC with the Duke series. I certainly would like to see that series continue. Duke, Maryland, and Baylor, along with ND and the rest of the Big East slate, make for a terrific group of home games.

 

[Suebird10fan]

They're going to live and die with Skylar, and she's going to be in the difficult position of trying to run the offense AND be the primary scorer. McBride is a good sidekick, Lloyd's an obvious talent but not a KML-like impact player as a freshman, and Achonwa has not taken the step forward I expected her to this year.

Losing Mallory and Peters is going to hurt them significantly on D.

They're a top 15 team, maybe top 10, but I'd be very surprised if they flirted with being top 5.

Alex, I think you, and most of the other posters on this topic, are ignoring the vast gulf between the top 3 teams and teams at the bottom of the top 10.

Look at Massey's power ratings for example. They have Texas A&M at #10 with a 56.43 power rating while ND is at 71.92, meaning ND is a bit more than 15 points better than A&M. And I think Massey (Sagarin even more so) low ball the ratings of the top few teams because their algorithms suppress the effects of blowout scores. That works well on the men's side where there is more parity, but unfairly penalizes the top women's teams, who have blowouts on a regular basis.

A 15 point gap is just huge and hard to close in one year even if the lower rated team is on the upswing and the higher rated team is losing a lot of key players. And I think the gap between ND and the #10 team (whether its A&M or someone else) is more like 18 points.

Underestimating the gap between the top few teams and those at the bottom of the top ten is what led many to make silly predictions going into this year--for example, that Miami would be better than UConn. Seems laughable now but lots of folks on this board threw it out as a possibility.

All of which is to say that ND will almost certainly be a top 10 team next year. And I think they're in the mix for the top 5. They'll drop off a lot but there just aren't many teams that are within shouting distance, and some that are, like Miami and probably Tennessee, lose too much firepower.

Here's how I see it shaking out:
1. UConn
2. Baylor
3. Duke
4. Maryland
5. Stanford or ND
6. ND or Stanford
After that I'm not sure but there will be a big drop. Of course there could be a surprise or two (Tennessee could be a wild card if they sort out their chemistry and coaching issues and Graves turns out to be high impact) but I feel confident this will be pretty close to the actual top 6 and that ND will be somewhere in there.

One reason not to expect surprise entries into the top six is that UConn (with a little help from ND and Duke) is hogging all of the high impact rookies!

 

[doggydaddy]

Alex, I think you, and most of the other posters on this topic, are ignoring the vast gulf between the top 3 teams and teams at the bottom of the top 10.

Look at Massey's power ratings for example. They have Texas A&M at #10 with a 56.43 power rating while ND is at 71.92, meaning ND is a bit more than 15 points better than A&M. And I think Massey (Sagarin even more so) low ball the ratings of the top few teams because their algorithms suppress the effects of blowout scores. That works well on the men's side where there is more parity, but unfairly penalizes the top women's teams, who have blowouts on a regular basis.

A 15 point gap is just huge and hard to close in one year even if the lower rated team is on the upswing and the higher rated team is losing a lot of key players. And I think the gap between ND and the #10 team (whether its A&M or someone else) is more like 18 points.

Underestimating the gap between the top few teams and those at the bottom of the top ten is what led many to make silly predictions going into this year--for example, that Miami would be better than UConn. Seems laughable now but lots of folks on this board threw it out as a possibility.

All of which is to say that ND will almost certainly be a top 10 team next year. And I think they're in the mix for the top 5. They'll drop off a lot but there just aren't many teams that are within shouting distance, and some that are, like Miami and probably Tennessee, lose too much firepower.

Here's how I see it shaking out:
1. UConn
2. Baylor
3. Duke
4. Maryland
5. Stanford or ND
6. ND or Stanford
After that I'm not sure but there will be a big drop. Of course there could be a surprise or two (Tennessee could be a wildcard if they sort out their chemistry and coaching issues and Graves turns out to be high impact) but I feel confident this will be pretty close to the actual top 6 and that ND will be somewhere in there.

One reason not to expect surprise entries into the top six is that UConn (with a little help from ND and Duke) is hogging all of the high impact rookies!

Not missing anything here. ND was and is great this year. But I believe you are underestimating their losses and what they will have next year.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Ok Doggy, let's try it this way. What teams outside of my top six will have a top three that can compare with Diggins, McBride and Lloyd?

And are Achonwa, Wright and Miller (let's say) significantly weaker than Tennessee's three through six? Or Kentucky's? Or whoever else you want to propose?

 

[Suebird10fan]

Ok Doggy, let's try it this way. What teams outside of my top six will have a top three that can compare with Diggins, McBride and Lloyd?

And are Achonwa, Wright and Miller (let's say) significantly weaker than Tennessee's three through six? Or Kentucky's? Or whoever else you want to propose?

Make that four through six ...

 

[Bestiarius]

I don't know how she does it but Mallory is a great defender. They will definitely miss her.

Strong, and with the specific gravity of plutonium. Did you see her after the big collision? She got up, smiled, and said no biggie.

 

[Bestiarius]

Ok Doggy, let's try it this way. What teams outside of my top six will have a top three that can compare with Diggins, McBride and Lloyd?

And are Achonwa, Wright and Miller (let's say) significantly weaker than Tennessee's three through six? Or Kentucky's? Or whoever else you want to propose?

Losing 5 Srs/Grad Students, all starting at the end of this season. I can't imagine TN being much of a threat next year, particularly if they are still in a coaching quandry.

Delaware should be stronger next year with EDD and most of this year's minutes returning.

 

[doggydaddy]

Ok Doggy, let's try it this way. What teams outside of my top six will have a top three that can compare with Diggins, McBride and Lloyd?

And are Achonwa, Wright and Miller (let's say) significantly weaker than Tennessee's three through six? Or Kentucky's? Or whoever else you want to propose?

Diggins is a 1st team AA, so she does tilt things in ND's favor. And McBride is a terrific player. Loyd? (1 L) I have not seen her, but everything I read says she is a special talent. I agreed earlier that this would be a top 5 back court.

But this front line is weak. Achowa was very unimpressive to me this season. She had some good games, but I only see a solid backup who will be starting now. Miller graduates this year. So you really only have Wright as a returning player with any kind of minutes in the front court and that was only 10 minutes a game of very medicre basketball.

So, no, I don't think that their players other than their 3 very good players are as good 4-10 as the most of the top 25 teams. And I don't think that will carry them into the top 10.

 

[Scotter]

Notre Dame obviously won't be an elite team, but they could easily still be among the top 8 teams in the country and Final Four contender. They will be undersized, but the size issue gets overrated. Just as some overestimated how much UConn's lack of size would be a factor.

Irregardless of the merits of the hype Diggins is a great player, and great players often taken it up another notch in their senior years. Achonwa is better than some are giving her credit for, and gives them scoring in the post. McBride has shown she has the ability to take on a bigger role. Those 3 are a strong core to build around that all bring unique contributions to balance each other. Lloyd should be able to at least add some additional scoring punch, and Michaela Mabrey is a shooter and should be able to contribute as a freshman guard as well. That's enough offense to let Turner and the two young posts play as defensive role players. An injury could be devastating, but McGraw can build a solid 7 player rotation and in almost every matchup she will have the best player. At this point I like Notre Dame chances slightly better than Stanford's next year.

 

[alexrgct]

Ok Doggy, let's try it this way. What teams outside of my top six will have a top three that can compare with Diggins, McBride and Lloyd?

And are Achonwa, Wright and Miller (let's say) significantly weaker than Tennessee's three through six? Or Kentucky's? Or whoever else you want to propose?

When I made the post you quoted, I wasn't really thinking literally in terms of "are there more than four specific teams next year that I think will be better than ND?" Rather, it was more in terms of the abstract concept of what a top five team should be. And that lineup for ND doesn't pass the eyeball test to me. Mallory, Novosel, and Peters, for all the headlines Skylar gets, are a uniquely talented and experienced set of players who have been playing together for what seems like forever. Jewell Loyd could well be better than any of them when all is said and done, but she's not going to be as a freshman. For that matter, ND has to hope that everyone not named Mcbride or Diggins can step up and fill a massive void left by an established group of proven veterans with no empirical evidence that they can. Skylar, meanwhile, will have a very different role on the team. She's always had kids ahead of her to play with. She may have been the PG, but now she really has to be a leader and a mentor...all the while trying to run the offense AND being the primary scorer. That's a lot to ask of someone, no matter how good she is.

Add all of that up, and that just doesn't meet my abstract conception of what a top five team should look like.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Doggy you could say exactly the same thing (switching bcourt for court) about Stanford this yr but they're gonna get a one seed.

 

[alexrgct]

Notre Dame obviously won't be an elite team, but they could easily still be among the top 8 teams in the country and Final Four contender. They will be undersized, but the size issue gets overrated. Just as some overestimated how much UConn's lack of size would be a factor.

Irregardless of the merits of the hype Diggins is a great player, and great players often taken it up another notch in their senior years. Achonwa is better than some are giving her credit for, and gives them scoring in the post. McBride has shown she has the ability to take on a bigger role. Those 3 are a strong core to build around that all bring unique contributions to balance each other. Lloyd should be able to at least add some additional scoring punch, and Michaela Mabrey is a shooter and should be able to contribute as a freshman guard as well. That's enough offense to let Turner and the two young posts play as defensive role players. An injury could be devastating, but McGraw can build a solid 7 player rotation and in almost every matchup she will have the best player. At this point I like Notre Dame chances slightly better than Stanford's next year.

I'm not seeing it with Achonwa. She impressed me as a frosh, but I expected to take a leap forward. I thought she was pretty mediocre and inconsistent against elite competition as a soph. Barring an impressive leap forward as a junior, I can't fathom how she can fill in for the two-time BE DPOY and one of the emotional leaders of the Fighting Irish. And who's behind her? I agree that talent trumps traditional sizes/positions, but that implies you have elite talent. Who can provide some frontcourt depth for them?

 

[Suebird10fan]

Alex I hear what you are saying but CAN you name any team aside from CT baylor MD duke and stfd that you expect to be better than ND?

 

[doggydaddy]

Notre Dame obviously won't be an elite team, but they could easily still be among the top 8 teams in the country and Final Four contender. They will be undersized, but the size issue gets overrated. Just as some overestimated how much UConn's lack of size would be a factor.

Irregardless of the merits of the hype Diggins is a great player, and great players often taken it up another notch in their senior years. Achonwa is better than some are giving her credit for, and gives them scoring in the post. McBride has shown she has the ability to take on a bigger role. Those 3 are a strong core to build around that all bring unique contributions to balance each other. Lloyd should be able to at least add some additional scoring punch, and Michaela Mabrey is a shooter and should be able to contribute as a freshman guard as well. That's enough offense to let Turner and the two young posts play as defensive role players. An injury could be devastating, but McGraw can build a solid 7 player rotation and in almost every matchup she will have the best player. At this point I like Notre Dame chances slightly better than Stanford's next year.

So, what is the 7 player rotation?

Diggins (5'9"), McBride (5'11"), Loyd (5'9"), Ochowa (6'3"), Turner (5'8"), Wright (6'2") and Cabel (5'11").

This is an incredibly weak team on the boards.

We will just have to disagree about Achowa. If she was that good, she would have gotten more than 14 minutes a game. Can she handle 25-30? I don't think so. She is very foul prone.

Wright played very limited minutes this year. And not very productive when she did play.

Mabrey will be the 3rd or 4th guard and if she is in, Loyd or Diggins are on the bench. Big drop in play.

Loyd (one L) is a terrific player from what I read. But still a freshman and no Lewis in 1st year impact.

After the top 3-4 players, ND next year will have the talent level equivalent of the bottom 4 on the UConn bench. Nice players but not top 10 talent. Can Diggins carry this team to that level? If she does, she should be player of the year.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Sue I see your angle... ND "may not" be as good next year BUT who's going to tstep up and be better than them.

every team is losing someone & gaining others.

ND should be in the Top 3 in the BE next year easily..

 

[DaddyChoc]

how can KML be the only FROSH in america to have a good season... if any frosh can average 8-12pts a game thats a good start.

I like the wait & see approach but there's nothing wrong with a lil healthy discussion

 

[doggydaddy]

Alex I hear what you are saying but CAN you name any team aside from CT baylor MD duke and stfd that you expect to be better than ND?

Not Alex, but you did ask me this before.

Penn State - returns everyone but one starter.
Kentucky - returns SEC POY Mathies and 8 of their top 9 scorers.
Delaware - Their superstar is better than ND's superstar and they have everyone coming back.
Louiville - Injured Reid coming back. Lose only Burke.
St. Johns - Lose Stephens, but get back seniors to be Smith, McPherson, McKenith


It's not 100% clear to me how far ND will drop. But I don't think their top players can carry the rest to a top ranking.

 

[doggydaddy]

how can KML be the only FROSH in america to have a good season... if any frosh can average 8-12pts a game thats a good start.

I like the wait & see approach but there's nothing wrong with a lil healthy discussion

Who said she was the only frosh in america to have a good season.

Lewis was the BE Tournament MOP. You think Loyd can have that impact? I don't.

 

[doggydaddy]

Sue I see your angle... ND "may not" be as good next year BUT who's going to tstep up and be better than them.

every team is losing someone & gaining others.

ND should be in the Top 3 in the BE next year easily..

I can see them under UConn, Louisville, SJU and maybe GTown next year.

 

[doggydaddy]

Where would you rank a team that had this for their 7 player rotation.

Hartley
Faris
Jefferson
Stokes
Engeln
Johnson
Buck

Top 10?

 

[DaddyChoc]

Who said she was the only frosh in america to have a good season.

Lewis was the BE Tournament MOP. You think Loyd can have that impact? I don't.

no clue... nor do I see her as FOY with BStew (MJ & MTuck also) in her way but we'll see

 

[DaddyChoc]

I can see them under UConn, Louisville, SJU and maybe GTown next year.

will SJU have a post presence?

 

[speedoo]

I can see them under UConn, Louisville, SJU and maybe GTown next year.

Not Georgetown... they lose a lot of seniors, including McGee, Wright and Crawford. Rodgers might be the only starter who comes back.

 

[doggydaddy]

will SJU have a post presence?

Did they have one this year? And will ND have one?

 

[DaddyChoc]

I can see them under UConn, Louisville, SJU and maybe GTown next year.

even this season... who would've "thunk" UConn finishing the reg season in 3rd place