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And what would happen if the judge ruled that just compensation is to be determined by the school "employing" that athlete rather than by the conference?
The rich would continue to prosper...and the less financially well off in a conference would continue to be less competitive.
The rich would continue to prosper...and the less financially well off in a conference would continue to be less competitive.
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I believe the Notre Dame AD is already on record as saying they will not pay athletes. The NCAA would basically break into two separate models. One group would pay the players and the other group would not. Most privates schools, (ND, BC, Syracuse.....) and many BIG and PAC schools will big in the league that does not pay players.
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and jim delany said the big ten will go d-III
spoiler alert - they are all lying
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Greg Flugaur @flugempire Feb 10
BTM: The Judges decision will be known soon. The decision will be appealed no matter which way it goes. But if the decision and remedy goes the way I think it will, it will create an earthquake which will go right through the lands of both P5 and G5.
WVInsiders @InsidersWv 12h12 hours ago
Isn't it true that any school that receives a subsidy - other than the cost of attendance accounting entry - is vulnerable if the Plaintiff wins the Alston case. Programs like Minnesota's which will receive over $10M in athletic subsidies?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
@theDudeofWV is firing off questions to me this morning on Twitter. It’s ok Christopher, you can ask me questions using your normal twitter account. You don’t need to ask questions using one of your many alt accounts.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
@theDudeofWV I will answer your Minnesota & Big Ten question first. The last revenue numbers you see posted on USA Today websiteis from July 1st, 2016 to June 30th, 2017. These revenue numbers for Big Ten schools still include the Big Ten 1&2 Tier Media Deal from 2006.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
The next revenue numbers you will see posted on USA Today this spring will actually be the first revenue numbers for the Big Ten using their new Tier 1&2 contracts of 2017 to 2022. You will see huge revenue jumps for all Big Ten Universities.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Now for your Minnesota question. You must have missed Christopher the MN AD report out last week showing Minnesota revenue up to 126 million with 10 million in profit without any subsidy included in the report. Go read my time line for last week.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for ACC....yes Christopher, they will have heated debates within the conference if Alston case goes for the plaintiffs. But the ACC GOR keeps them together, as you know, well into the next decade and a half.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for PAC Christopher, their revenue issues are deep. But for now they are looking at gambling and staying together through the next media negotiations which will start for them late 2021 into early 2022. Taking a bridge loan through investment firm seems to be their next step.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for Big 12...their bottom is financially weak. Conference has very little unity. Texas & Oklahoma are officially targets of SEC & Big Ten. GOR is up July 1st, 2025. Can Kansas State get at compensation level which Sooners & Longhorns approve of?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Finally Christopher, There is advantages to having a smaller conference of 10 schools..there are advantages to having a larger conference (14-16). The advantages of being part of a smaller conference will dwindle going into next media negotiations.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @InsidersWv
I answered your questions under@theDudeofWV You can forward me questions using your normal twitter account. Nice to hear from you again.
WVInsiders @InsidersWv 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV
So funny that your BTM shared with you information written about for the past four years.. except for OU and UT to the B1G... you are the only one saying that.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 12h12 hours ago
Expect a B12/P12 merger of 2-4 schools from B12 to get a new deal. Whether or not any of those schools is Oklahoma or Texas will depend on what type of deal they get. Will the B10 allow Texas to bring along Tech is the question. Will the SEC pursue OU? would the B10 target KU?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @InsidersWv @theDudeofWV
P12 schools are going to get that bridge loan from an investment firm. When they do so each individual school in PAC will sign away any ability to move to another conference. PAC schools are still gambling on themselves.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub @InsidersWv
Right... a bridge loan. 1. They already have a GoR in place. 2. Any potential bridge loan would cover up to the expiration of the GoR & not beyond. That’s why it’s unlikely they get a bridge loan.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 2 others
I was about to say that is impossible. The top schools in that conference can’t possibly be that stupid. Then I look back at what’s happened in the Pac 12 in the last 10 years and at USC in particular…
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Looking at finances as the driving factor its just as likely tOSU & Michigan head to the SEC because of Alston v NCAA as UT & OU to the B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
However to say that OU & UT would leave the Big 12 because of the Alston case doesn’t account for the fact that more B1G schools would balk at pay-for-play than would B12 schools.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
A merger of 2-4 Big 12 schools with the Pac 12 is suicide. Now 8 Big 12 schools or a merger of TV rights is possible with WVU going to the ACC or SEC & BU being dropped.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Especially if Flugar is counting on BTN money. That revenue model is becoming outdated quickly.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
BTN money is flat. Tier 1&2 money is where Big Ten and SEC will both see large increases in their next Media negotiations just like last Media negotiations.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
SEC will because its undervalued. B1G will not. The product isnt that great.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
B1G is top heavy. tOSU, PSU, UM, Wisc, & MSTU account for 96% of OTA TV ratings. The rest don’t come close to the B12’s avg on comparable platforms.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
The SEC has the oldest & cheapest TV deal in CFB with CBS. Its only because its seriously undervalued that the SEC will see a huge jump.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
Plus, Only the ACC has had money added to their primary TV deal with expansion & that was a paltry $2M per that required a long term extension. The SEC, B1G & P12’s TV partners refused to add money. Only so many OTA windows available.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 2 others
NEB brought in the highest rated game of the year. WISC and MSU don't. Once NEB gets it going with Frost that will be 4 Big time teams.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Forgot Neb. Add them to the list.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 2 others
The SEC and B10 are not in "outdated" revenue models. They create the model. Just like the NFL has. Those 2 leagues have advantages that will always give them a monetary advantage over everyone else. The rest of CFB does not have the alumni or interest to keep up.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
Big Ten Alumni is spread out all over the country. They dispersed...so it gives Big Ten to hold value for Media outside of Big Ten Country. Big Ten value is gold to FOX. FOX will pay enormous price in next go-around.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
B10 is huge on the west coast. Especially Arizona and California.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 3 others
The primary issue with the P12 is 2 NFL teams suddenly jumping into its primary TV market. The last time that happened the P12 nearly collapsed and Texas was rumored to be joining (1992). We've seen this before but this time the NFL teams aren't leaving.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
It didn’t help the P12 that is for sure.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Look at conference championship ratings. It's the B10 SEC and no one else is hardly ever close unless they have a miracle matchup like OU Texas
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
FOX is going all in on Big Ten Content. ESPN is all in on SEC & ACC. Big 12 has a future distribution choke point issue unless somebody else steps up...an Amazon for example. Small footprint is catching up to Big 12.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
L. Scott mentioned a bridge loan. There are no plans to attempt one. Several issues make such a financing deal difficult. What’s the collateral? Future earnings? What about sovereign immunity? The Pac 12 owns nothing of value. Its members TV rights cant be collateralized.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
The collateral will be future Tier 1&2 earnings. And yes, there is plans for PAC to get upfront money from investors firm. Will they get it? Is it a good idea? I personally don’t think so. But PAC is unified enough to attempt this idea of Bridge Loan, giving 10% of their equity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Plus, the P12’s revenue problems are just symptoms of the real issue. Football just isnt as popular in California as it was & the trend isn’t encouraging. What’s left is the B12 without its flagships. Plus that pacific timezone.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
True. Football is not as popular in California. P12 have major issues. I can’t imagine why Scott is so confident about the upcoming PAC/Media negotiations starting in late 2021. But the 12 Universities are still unified. Big 12 schools are showing no unification at this point.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Not sure how you can say that with the degree of grumbling coming out of those schools. And that is just what we get to hear. I’m sure they will all unite and fire Larry Scott. But the bottom line is pac12 just doesn’t work economically.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Let me point out here that what Flugar claims his BTM told him is less than what’s been written by@McCannSportsLaw & others. He just used Alston v NCAA to reframe his 7 year claim that UT & OU are headed to the Big Ten. He’s been spinning that yarn for SEVEN YEARS!
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Christopher makes some good points. But BTM has stated for years OK is a target for Big Ten..mutual interest. UT has just become a target. But SEC will also be targeting both. No, OU & UT to Big Ten is no lock. Absolutely not.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 3 others
That is not correct. Texas is not a new target.Texas was a prime target for the big 10 in 1990s when B12 formed. in 2011 Texas was approached again hence the famous “tech problem” email. I am sure they have perpetually been at the top of the big 10’s wish list.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 3 others
ESPN owns all of UT’s rights until 2035. They would never allow UT to go the B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 3 others
Plus let me remind everyone that the B1G could have had OU, KU & Mizzou in 2010/11 and passed. B1G has no interest in OU. Texas has absolutely zero interest in the B1G. Longhorns have an open invitation anywhere they like, but for UT its the Big 12 or indy.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Big Ten didn’t pass on OU. But they did their homework. Big Ten was always going East in their expansion of 13 & 14.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Here's my best guess. OU and Texas will NOT be in the B12 in 2025.......because the B12 won't exist. Where they go and who they go with.....a mystery. I think they head West unless the B10 and SEC pay them not to.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
No way they head west. That would be a death for their programs. Look at the PAC 12 TV ratings. Oklahoma and Texas would hurt themselves terribly join the conference anchored in that area. Less people care about college sports there than anywhere in America.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
So OU and Texas would kill themselves being in an 8 team PAC South with Arizona schools and USC\UCLA? or B10 West with Nebraska and Chicago Minneapolis region with 1 time zone? They wouldn't. Keep in mind permanent crossovers and you can see the $. ESPN\FOX benefits each way
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
And the NCAA will certainly appeal a loss in Alston v NCAA. It may be 10 years after the judge’s decision for the matter to be solved & its likely the NCAA gets a stay while its being adjudicated.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 2 others
Yes, appeal will happen. It won’t take 10 years.
BTM: The Judges decision will be known soon. The decision will be appealed no matter which way it goes. But if the decision and remedy goes the way I think it will, it will create an earthquake which will go right through the lands of both P5 and G5.
WVInsiders @InsidersWv 12h12 hours ago
Isn't it true that any school that receives a subsidy - other than the cost of attendance accounting entry - is vulnerable if the Plaintiff wins the Alston case. Programs like Minnesota's which will receive over $10M in athletic subsidies?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
The next revenue numbers you will see posted on USA Today this spring will actually be the first revenue numbers for the Big Ten using their new Tier 1&2 contracts of 2017 to 2022. You will see huge revenue jumps for all Big Ten Universities.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Now for your Minnesota question. You must have missed Christopher the MN AD report out last week showing Minnesota revenue up to 126 million with 10 million in profit without any subsidy included in the report. Go read my time line for last week.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for ACC....yes Christopher, they will have heated debates within the conference if Alston case goes for the plaintiffs. But the ACC GOR keeps them together, as you know, well into the next decade and a half.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for PAC Christopher, their revenue issues are deep. But for now they are looking at gambling and staying together through the next media negotiations which will start for them late 2021 into early 2022. Taking a bridge loan through investment firm seems to be their next step.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
As for Big 12...their bottom is financially weak. Conference has very little unity. Texas & Oklahoma are officially targets of SEC & Big Ten. GOR is up July 1st, 2025. Can Kansas State get at compensation level which Sooners & Longhorns approve of?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Finally Christopher, There is advantages to having a smaller conference of 10 schools..there are advantages to having a larger conference (14-16). The advantages of being part of a smaller conference will dwindle going into next media negotiations.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @InsidersWv
I answered your questions under
WVInsiders @InsidersWv 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV
So funny that your BTM shared with you information written about for the past four years.. except for OU and UT to the B1G... you are the only one saying that.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 12h12 hours ago
Expect a B12/P12 merger of 2-4 schools from B12 to get a new deal. Whether or not any of those schools is Oklahoma or Texas will depend on what type of deal they get. Will the B10 allow Texas to bring along Tech is the question. Will the SEC pursue OU? would the B10 target KU?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 12h12 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @InsidersWv @theDudeofWV
P12 schools are going to get that bridge loan from an investment firm. When they do so each individual school in PAC will sign away any ability to move to another conference. PAC schools are still gambling on themselves.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub @InsidersWv
Right... a bridge loan. 1. They already have a GoR in place. 2. Any potential bridge loan would cover up to the expiration of the GoR & not beyond. That’s why it’s unlikely they get a bridge loan.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 2 others
I was about to say that is impossible. The top schools in that conference can’t possibly be that stupid. Then I look back at what’s happened in the Pac 12 in the last 10 years and at USC in particular…
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Looking at finances as the driving factor its just as likely tOSU & Michigan head to the SEC because of Alston v NCAA as UT & OU to the B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
However to say that OU & UT would leave the Big 12 because of the Alston case doesn’t account for the fact that more B1G schools would balk at pay-for-play than would B12 schools.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
A merger of 2-4 Big 12 schools with the Pac 12 is suicide. Now 8 Big 12 schools or a merger of TV rights is possible with WVU going to the ACC or SEC & BU being dropped.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Especially if Flugar is counting on BTN money. That revenue model is becoming outdated quickly.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
BTN money is flat. Tier 1&2 money is where Big Ten and SEC will both see large increases in their next Media negotiations just like last Media negotiations.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
SEC will because its undervalued. B1G will not. The product isnt that great.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
B1G is top heavy. tOSU, PSU, UM, Wisc, & MSTU account for 96% of OTA TV ratings. The rest don’t come close to the B12’s avg on comparable platforms.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
The SEC has the oldest & cheapest TV deal in CFB with CBS. Its only because its seriously undervalued that the SEC will see a huge jump.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 3 others
Plus, Only the ACC has had money added to their primary TV deal with expansion & that was a paltry $2M per that required a long term extension. The SEC, B1G & P12’s TV partners refused to add money. Only so many OTA windows available.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 2 others
NEB brought in the highest rated game of the year. WISC and MSU don't. Once NEB gets it going with Frost that will be 4 Big time teams.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Forgot Neb. Add them to the list.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 2 others
The SEC and B10 are not in "outdated" revenue models. They create the model. Just like the NFL has. Those 2 leagues have advantages that will always give them a monetary advantage over everyone else. The rest of CFB does not have the alumni or interest to keep up.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
Big Ten Alumni is spread out all over the country. They dispersed...so it gives Big Ten to hold value for Media outside of Big Ten Country. Big Ten value is gold to FOX. FOX will pay enormous price in next go-around.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
B10 is huge on the west coast. Especially Arizona and California.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 3 others
The primary issue with the P12 is 2 NFL teams suddenly jumping into its primary TV market. The last time that happened the P12 nearly collapsed and Texas was rumored to be joining (1992). We've seen this before but this time the NFL teams aren't leaving.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
It didn’t help the P12 that is for sure.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Look at conference championship ratings. It's the B10 SEC and no one else is hardly ever close unless they have a miracle matchup like OU Texas
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 2 others
FOX is going all in on Big Ten Content. ESPN is all in on SEC & ACC. Big 12 has a future distribution choke point issue unless somebody else steps up...an Amazon for example. Small footprint is catching up to Big 12.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
L. Scott mentioned a bridge loan. There are no plans to attempt one. Several issues make such a financing deal difficult. What’s the collateral? Future earnings? What about sovereign immunity? The Pac 12 owns nothing of value. Its members TV rights cant be collateralized.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
The collateral will be future Tier 1&2 earnings. And yes, there is plans for PAC to get upfront money from investors firm. Will they get it? Is it a good idea? I personally don’t think so. But PAC is unified enough to attempt this idea of Bridge Loan, giving 10% of their equity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 2 others
Plus, the P12’s revenue problems are just symptoms of the real issue. Football just isnt as popular in California as it was & the trend isn’t encouraging. What’s left is the B12 without its flagships. Plus that pacific timezone.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
True. Football is not as popular in California. P12 have major issues. I can’t imagine why Scott is so confident about the upcoming PAC/Media negotiations starting in late 2021. But the 12 Universities are still unified. Big 12 schools are showing no unification at this point.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Not sure how you can say that with the degree of grumbling coming out of those schools. And that is just what we get to hear. I’m sure they will all unite and fire Larry Scott. But the bottom line is pac12 just doesn’t work economically.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Let me point out here that what Flugar claims his BTM told him is less than what’s been written by
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Christopher makes some good points. But BTM has stated for years OK is a target for Big Ten..mutual interest. UT has just become a target. But SEC will also be targeting both. No, OU & UT to Big Ten is no lock. Absolutely not.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 3 others
That is not correct. Texas is not a new target.Texas was a prime target for the big 10 in 1990s when B12 formed. in 2011 Texas was approached again hence the famous “tech problem” email. I am sure they have perpetually been at the top of the big 10’s wish list.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 3 others
ESPN owns all of UT’s rights until 2035. They would never allow UT to go the B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 3 others
Plus let me remind everyone that the B1G could have had OU, KU & Mizzou in 2010/11 and passed. B1G has no interest in OU. Texas has absolutely zero interest in the B1G. Longhorns have an open invitation anywhere they like, but for UT its the Big 12 or indy.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Big Ten didn’t pass on OU. But they did their homework. Big Ten was always going East in their expansion of 13 & 14.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Here's my best guess. OU and Texas will NOT be in the B12 in 2025.......because the B12 won't exist. Where they go and who they go with.....a mystery. I think they head West unless the B10 and SEC pay them not to.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
No way they head west. That would be a death for their programs. Look at the PAC 12 TV ratings. Oklahoma and Texas would hurt themselves terribly join the conference anchored in that area. Less people care about college sports there than anywhere in America.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
So OU and Texas would kill themselves being in an 8 team PAC South with Arizona schools and USC\UCLA? or B10 West with Nebraska and Chicago Minneapolis region with 1 time zone? They wouldn't. Keep in mind permanent crossovers and you can see the $. ESPN\FOX benefits each way
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
And the NCAA will certainly appeal a loss in Alston v NCAA. It may be 10 years after the judge’s decision for the matter to be solved & its likely the NCAA gets a stay while its being adjudicated.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 2 others
Yes, appeal will happen. It won’t take 10 years.
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Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 16h16 hours ago
Greg, with all due respect your BTM guy was the one who told you Fox wanted the Big 12 to expand & that WVU wanted UC. Fox was deadset against B12 expansion & WVU was dead-set against UC.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
With all respect on Sept 22nd, 2016 BTM said Big 12 Expansion was officially dead. (Check Twitter). You wrote article on Sept 26 saying in last paragraph Big 12 is Expansion was not dead. I tried to discuss with you..you went and protected your tweets.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Early on FOX along with Oklahoma was in favor of expansion toward the east. When ESPN & Texas shut it down..all combo’s..it was over. The advantages of a 10 School - 4 State Conference will dwindle during next negotiations. Weaknesses will only grow.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 9h9 hours ago
Conference size will be less important in the future. Outside of the SEC conference TV revenue is driven by two or three teams. Fanbase size and intensity will be the drivers in the future not geographical footprint As the carriage fee model declines.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
If you read the other tweets...only if Texas faction agrees. But they never did of course.
Christopher Lambert on Twitter
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Yep. Read your 2nd to last paragraph. You state, “Expansion is not dead yet”. But it was.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
As you know Christopher, Oklahoma wanted Expansion at start of process...was pretty much willing to do anything except bring in UH +1. Texas was putting out false hope by supporting UH+1. ESPN wanted nothing to do with Expansion. FOX decided against it as well.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 8h8 hours agoLol... love how you talk like you know. OU wanted a network - expansion was necessary for that... until Fox & ESPN said no.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
Oklahoma still wants it...but with no viable way to grow the conference with their current distributors, and with Texas...yeah, it’s not happening. But even you stated 11 months ago it needs to happen. You know this to be true.
daniel @danielSEM2004 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 4 others
Texas and OU aren't going to the Pac12. Their financial situation is at critical mass and neither UT nor OU are going to take a pay cut. Neither can leave their conference without dragging their little brothers along, so anyone who wants those two has to take 4 total.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
And again Christopher, Arizona, Arizona State & California have no interest in Big 12 and have not had informal talks with Big 12 like you stated last year. Hopefully for the sake of Big 12 Texas gives up LHN and you all find unity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Wrong. On all counts.
daniel @danielSEM2004 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
You obviously haven't seen the Pac12's revenue distribution vs the Big12s. Anyone telling you every school in the Pac12 isn't looking at something better, is a fool and you're naive to believe them.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 6h6 hours ago
True......I’ve seen a few people link Colorado to the B10 for financial reasons but I’ve always figured that was fan talk. CU academic arm loves rubbing elbows with the crazies in Berkeley. They would hate the B10.
Shane Becknell @blakespop 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 5 others
Anyone that thinks PAC 12 schools aren’t looking around is fooling themselves. They have serious cash flow issues 1-2 million per school for network is less than TCU is drawing in with HFTV, that’s crazy.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
Do you know what the Pac 12 considering a bridge loan means? It means the Pac 12 has likely distributed all its reserve it can free up. Do you know how bad that is if true?
Randy D @cubsgop 5h5 hours ago
Desperation
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
This is just me... but I would say if Pac 12 teams leave the most likely are: 1. Arizona & Arizona State 2. Cal 3. UCLA. But a merger or merger of media rights solves the problems of both the Big 12 and Pac 12 while keeping egos intact.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
Arizona State will need to switch out their President first....the man is a Scott fanatic...unfortunately.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Arizona and Arizona State are not in financial distress. The best move for both the Pac 12 and Big 12 is merging their TV rights for the next contract.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.azcentral.com/amp/2509467002 … This ASU President is a true Larry Scott believer. There is still 4-5 left of old guard in PAC which still believes they are on right path. Unfortunately for themselves they are not. But this ASU President needs to go first before they talk with B12
OU Boom!!! @asbell_tony 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 5 others
Here we go again. How many people from AZ (ASU or UofA) that desire, or willing to even except movement to the Big12?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @asbell_tony @flugempire and 5 others
More than you think... ask.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @asbell_tony @flugempire and 5 others
But the most likely outcome is some type of merger between the Pac 12 and Big 12. Say a merger of media rights for the new TV contract and a scheduling agreement. Solves problems with little pain for both sides.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 4h4 hours ago
I think it would solve some of the problems especially for the big 12 getting into different markets and adding marquee games. But as far as the pac12 the underlying fundamentals remain diseased. I think you need to trim the dead weight for that to be successful.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 4h4 hours ago
Guess it depends on just how committed the pac 12 is to each other. If the top half of that conference if not committed to the bottom half then why not join the Big Ten. They’re all AAU schools.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Dead weight in the B12 will be cut
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
There is deadweight economically in every conference even the SEC. Pac 12 has the worst problem which is why they make so much less than everyone else.
daniel @danielSEM2004 36m36 minutes ago
Fortunately or unfortunately, conferences are socialist in nature. The current teams in the P5 will continue to be in the P5.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 34m34 minutes ago
That presumes that the power five itself will continue to exist. I’m not sure that’s really the future. With the Alston case you wonder if they are going to have to make drastic changes to the way things work.
daniel @danielSEM2004 31m31 minutes ago
The P5 will continue, the real question is if/when they break away from the NCAA. Alston will change the landscape of revenue for player availability, but what people forget is Title IX still applies, regardless of what happens.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 18m18 minutes ago
Very true.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
It is always amazing to me just how clueless some of these university presidents are about the economics of big time sports. I really think the truth is they don’t care they don’t like it and they wish it would all go away.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Eric Barron turned down the SEC - twice. He didn't understand the economics.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
History has proven that realignment is economically driven. The Pac 12 currently has all the signs of a conference in danger of losing members. The fact is the Pac 12 should not have expanded. Contraction might well solve their economic issues.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
What PAC needed to do was get Oklahoma + whoever and get into Central Time Zone. They blew it. PAC has deep serious issues.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
How long before the B1G starts revising revenue forecasts downward?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
Greg, if you look below the surface you see the B1G blew it with expansion too. They could have had OU and Mizzou... they picked UMD and Rutgers. Then the economic model that justified that started dying. Now the B1G is too big.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
There is some truth to this statement. But Delany was totally focused on the East for 13 & 14.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
And the revenue model died. Nobody was blaming him at the time. It was a sound business decision. Then society began to change. And society is still changing in ways that could impact the B1G negatively.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
The big 10 network will definitely be negatively affected in the future by decline carriage fee model. However the fundamentals of the Big Ten conference as the second strongest sports conference economically remain sound.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 4 others
Maybe... but viewership trends have a southern twang. See where I'm going?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Big Ten Network payouts have been flat over last 3 years. 8.8mil to 9mil for fully invested members. The money coming in for BTN & SECN through streaming bundles has been lower than expected.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
BTN is set up to be digitally sold, it has no debt, and its own market. It can weather any changes. The others cant
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
It is a manual typewriter hurtling towards complete irrelevance. If it has to stand on the number of actual viewers and not carriage fees it’s not a pretty picture.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
Look at MLB regional networks and their worth. There is a reason the 3 other conferences aren’t in this predicament. You need fan passion, large alumni, AND geographical footprint to succeed only SEC and B10 have all 3.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @MarkKochenderfe and 5 others
ACC has 2 of the 3. You could argue the P12 and B12 each only have 1. FWIW, the B12 is relying on a contract that is upward skewed based on past deals as other teams were leaving. In other words, the $ won’t get much bigger for the B12 and the revenue gap from SEC/B10 gets larger
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
The difference in leverage which Big Ten & SEC will hold during next Media negotiations vs Big 12 will hold for theirs will be dramatic.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 4 others
you need TV ratings. That is why the media rights deal is paid for.That’s what matters. When you look up at the SEC it is so far ahead of any other conferences it is just unreal.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
BTN is not a typewriter. My goodness. Millions of dollars have been invested in this network from each Big Ten University. It’s 9 mil a year payouts are pure payout for 3rd a Tier TV only. Not including all the other 3rd Tier items often stuffed into other 3T reported revenue.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTN is not only TV...but it has digital. I watch BTN more on my phone than my TV. BTN is almost everywhere. High exposure. BTN + is another Tier as a consumer you can pay into for more content. BTN gives incredible exposure to non rev sports.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
It is a typewriter. It is obsolete. It was born to Harness carriage fees that are going away. The whole model in which it’s based is dying. The number of people that would actually buy a subscription to the big 10 volleyball network is minuscule.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
But BTN is more than carriage fees. The Big 12 has floated the idea around of building a Big 12 Digital subscribtion Network. BTN is also a subscription network...it was built out in 2016. People are buying subscriptions without cable carriage. It’s called BTN plus.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 58m58 minutes ago
There is a huge misconception of what the BTN really is..it’s a full grown network which is on cutting edge. And it’s totalky paid for by fully invested B1G schools. Only Rutgers & UMD have some payments left to pay into.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 48m48 minutes ago
BTN has all the same options as ESPN media. It’s quite impressive and it’s digital subscription is growing
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 46m46 minutes ago
Isn’t ESPN plus already being labeled a subscription failure? To get someone to actively pay for garbage sporting events is much much harder than harvesting carriage fees from people that don’t even know it exists and they’re paying for it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 30m30 minutes ago
Good question. I’m not sure we can label ESPN plus a failure or a success as of yet. I think I read a report they are up to 2 million subscriptions. You might think they are garbage events...but bundle enough of them up together you might get a product people will buy.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 28m28 minutes ago
LHN is your typewriter. If I go to Denver and get myself a drink at the bar I can ask for them to flip on SECN or BTN. But I can’t get WVU 3rd Tier content outside of West Virginia.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Don't laugh. I think Mizzou didn't want to go to the SEC and used the threat of the SEC to get OU and UT to agree to equal profit sharing in the Big 12. But once their boosters and fans got hold of the SEC idea they had to make the move.
Trip Manfro @pfac51 6h6 hours ago
remember that time, the Governor of Missouri pleading with the B1G to invite the Tigers?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Yeap...
Trip Manfro @pfac51 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV
would have preferred mizzou, to rutgers.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Deaton saved the Big 12. Mizzou wanted out to the B1G badly. Mizzou to the B1G would have put WVU in the SEC.
Trip Manfro @pfac51 5h5 hours ago
pretty sure that would have happened. nebby reached out and is a bigger football brand. now if mizzou would have waited, would they have been team 13?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
The better question is why did the B1G pass on adding Mizzou, OU and KU at the same time? I think I know the answer. NJ & MD had larger markets than Kansas & Missouri. OU wasn't AAU.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @pfac51
It also had to do with satisfying Penn State and wanting to be a 2 region conference.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV @pfac51
Delaney has said he will only bring in 2 at a time at the most. Up next is 2 of this 5 (OU, UT, KU, CU, GTech). That’s the end game. Expect it by 2024
Trip Manfro @pfac51 3h3 hours ago
i am on the KU and OU bandwagon.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 16h16 hours ago
Greg, with all due respect your BTM guy was the one who told you Fox wanted the Big 12 to expand & that WVU wanted UC. Fox was deadset against B12 expansion & WVU was dead-set against UC.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
With all respect on Sept 22nd, 2016 BTM said Big 12 Expansion was officially dead. (Check Twitter). You wrote article on Sept 26 saying in last paragraph Big 12 is Expansion was not dead. I tried to discuss with you..you went and protected your tweets.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Early on FOX along with Oklahoma was in favor of expansion toward the east. When ESPN & Texas shut it down..all combo’s..it was over. The advantages of a 10 School - 4 State Conference will dwindle during next negotiations. Weaknesses will only grow.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 9h9 hours ago
Conference size will be less important in the future. Outside of the SEC conference TV revenue is driven by two or three teams. Fanbase size and intensity will be the drivers in the future not geographical footprint As the carriage fee model declines.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
If you read the other tweets...only if Texas faction agrees. But they never did of course.
Christopher Lambert on Twitter
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Yep. Read your 2nd to last paragraph. You state, “Expansion is not dead yet”. But it was.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
As you know Christopher, Oklahoma wanted Expansion at start of process...was pretty much willing to do anything except bring in UH +1. Texas was putting out false hope by supporting UH+1. ESPN wanted nothing to do with Expansion. FOX decided against it as well.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 8h8 hours agoLol... love how you talk like you know. OU wanted a network - expansion was necessary for that... until Fox & ESPN said no.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 8h8 hours ago
Oklahoma still wants it...but with no viable way to grow the conference with their current distributors, and with Texas...yeah, it’s not happening. But even you stated 11 months ago it needs to happen. You know this to be true.
daniel @danielSEM2004 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @flugempire and 4 others
Texas and OU aren't going to the Pac12. Their financial situation is at critical mass and neither UT nor OU are going to take a pay cut. Neither can leave their conference without dragging their little brothers along, so anyone who wants those two has to take 4 total.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 13h13 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
And again Christopher, Arizona, Arizona State & California have no interest in Big 12 and have not had informal talks with Big 12 like you stated last year. Hopefully for the sake of Big 12 Texas gives up LHN and you all find unity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @MarkKochenderfe and 3 others
Wrong. On all counts.
daniel @danielSEM2004 8h8 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
You obviously haven't seen the Pac12's revenue distribution vs the Big12s. Anyone telling you every school in the Pac12 isn't looking at something better, is a fool and you're naive to believe them.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 6h6 hours ago
True......I’ve seen a few people link Colorado to the B10 for financial reasons but I’ve always figured that was fan talk. CU academic arm loves rubbing elbows with the crazies in Berkeley. They would hate the B10.
Shane Becknell @blakespop 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 5 others
Anyone that thinks PAC 12 schools aren’t looking around is fooling themselves. They have serious cash flow issues 1-2 million per school for network is less than TCU is drawing in with HFTV, that’s crazy.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
Do you know what the Pac 12 considering a bridge loan means? It means the Pac 12 has likely distributed all its reserve it can free up. Do you know how bad that is if true?
Randy D @cubsgop 5h5 hours ago
Desperation
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
This is just me... but I would say if Pac 12 teams leave the most likely are: 1. Arizona & Arizona State 2. Cal 3. UCLA. But a merger or merger of media rights solves the problems of both the Big 12 and Pac 12 while keeping egos intact.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
Arizona State will need to switch out their President first....the man is a Scott fanatic...unfortunately.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Arizona and Arizona State are not in financial distress. The best move for both the Pac 12 and Big 12 is merging their TV rights for the next contract.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.azcentral.com/amp/2509467002 … This ASU President is a true Larry Scott believer. There is still 4-5 left of old guard in PAC which still believes they are on right path. Unfortunately for themselves they are not. But this ASU President needs to go first before they talk with B12
OU Boom!!! @asbell_tony 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 5 others
Here we go again. How many people from AZ (ASU or UofA) that desire, or willing to even except movement to the Big12?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @asbell_tony @flugempire and 5 others
More than you think... ask.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @asbell_tony @flugempire and 5 others
But the most likely outcome is some type of merger between the Pac 12 and Big 12. Say a merger of media rights for the new TV contract and a scheduling agreement. Solves problems with little pain for both sides.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 4h4 hours ago
I think it would solve some of the problems especially for the big 12 getting into different markets and adding marquee games. But as far as the pac12 the underlying fundamentals remain diseased. I think you need to trim the dead weight for that to be successful.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 4h4 hours ago
Guess it depends on just how committed the pac 12 is to each other. If the top half of that conference if not committed to the bottom half then why not join the Big Ten. They’re all AAU schools.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Dead weight in the B12 will be cut
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
There is deadweight economically in every conference even the SEC. Pac 12 has the worst problem which is why they make so much less than everyone else.
daniel @danielSEM2004 36m36 minutes ago
Fortunately or unfortunately, conferences are socialist in nature. The current teams in the P5 will continue to be in the P5.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 34m34 minutes ago
That presumes that the power five itself will continue to exist. I’m not sure that’s really the future. With the Alston case you wonder if they are going to have to make drastic changes to the way things work.
daniel @danielSEM2004 31m31 minutes ago
The P5 will continue, the real question is if/when they break away from the NCAA. Alston will change the landscape of revenue for player availability, but what people forget is Title IX still applies, regardless of what happens.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 18m18 minutes ago
Very true.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV and 4 others
It is always amazing to me just how clueless some of these university presidents are about the economics of big time sports. I really think the truth is they don’t care they don’t like it and they wish it would all go away.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Eric Barron turned down the SEC - twice. He didn't understand the economics.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @danielSEM2004 and 4 others
History has proven that realignment is economically driven. The Pac 12 currently has all the signs of a conference in danger of losing members. The fact is the Pac 12 should not have expanded. Contraction might well solve their economic issues.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
What PAC needed to do was get Oklahoma + whoever and get into Central Time Zone. They blew it. PAC has deep serious issues.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
How long before the B1G starts revising revenue forecasts downward?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
Greg, if you look below the surface you see the B1G blew it with expansion too. They could have had OU and Mizzou... they picked UMD and Rutgers. Then the economic model that justified that started dying. Now the B1G is too big.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 6h6 hours ago
There is some truth to this statement. But Delany was totally focused on the East for 13 & 14.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
And the revenue model died. Nobody was blaming him at the time. It was a sound business decision. Then society began to change. And society is still changing in ways that could impact the B1G negatively.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 5h5 hours ago
The big 10 network will definitely be negatively affected in the future by decline carriage fee model. However the fundamentals of the Big Ten conference as the second strongest sports conference economically remain sound.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 4 others
Maybe... but viewership trends have a southern twang. See where I'm going?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Big Ten Network payouts have been flat over last 3 years. 8.8mil to 9mil for fully invested members. The money coming in for BTN & SECN through streaming bundles has been lower than expected.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
BTN is set up to be digitally sold, it has no debt, and its own market. It can weather any changes. The others cant
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
It is a manual typewriter hurtling towards complete irrelevance. If it has to stand on the number of actual viewers and not carriage fees it’s not a pretty picture.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
Look at MLB regional networks and their worth. There is a reason the 3 other conferences aren’t in this predicament. You need fan passion, large alumni, AND geographical footprint to succeed only SEC and B10 have all 3.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @MarkKochenderfe and 5 others
ACC has 2 of the 3. You could argue the P12 and B12 each only have 1. FWIW, the B12 is relying on a contract that is upward skewed based on past deals as other teams were leaving. In other words, the $ won’t get much bigger for the B12 and the revenue gap from SEC/B10 gets larger
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
The difference in leverage which Big Ten & SEC will hold during next Media negotiations vs Big 12 will hold for theirs will be dramatic.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @theDudeofWV and 4 others
you need TV ratings. That is why the media rights deal is paid for.That’s what matters. When you look up at the SEC it is so far ahead of any other conferences it is just unreal.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
BTN is not a typewriter. My goodness. Millions of dollars have been invested in this network from each Big Ten University. It’s 9 mil a year payouts are pure payout for 3rd a Tier TV only. Not including all the other 3rd Tier items often stuffed into other 3T reported revenue.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTN is not only TV...but it has digital. I watch BTN more on my phone than my TV. BTN is almost everywhere. High exposure. BTN + is another Tier as a consumer you can pay into for more content. BTN gives incredible exposure to non rev sports.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
It is a typewriter. It is obsolete. It was born to Harness carriage fees that are going away. The whole model in which it’s based is dying. The number of people that would actually buy a subscription to the big 10 volleyball network is minuscule.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 1h1 hour ago
But BTN is more than carriage fees. The Big 12 has floated the idea around of building a Big 12 Digital subscribtion Network. BTN is also a subscription network...it was built out in 2016. People are buying subscriptions without cable carriage. It’s called BTN plus.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 58m58 minutes ago
There is a huge misconception of what the BTN really is..it’s a full grown network which is on cutting edge. And it’s totalky paid for by fully invested B1G schools. Only Rutgers & UMD have some payments left to pay into.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 48m48 minutes ago
BTN has all the same options as ESPN media. It’s quite impressive and it’s digital subscription is growing
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 46m46 minutes ago
Isn’t ESPN plus already being labeled a subscription failure? To get someone to actively pay for garbage sporting events is much much harder than harvesting carriage fees from people that don’t even know it exists and they’re paying for it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 30m30 minutes ago
Good question. I’m not sure we can label ESPN plus a failure or a success as of yet. I think I read a report they are up to 2 million subscriptions. You might think they are garbage events...but bundle enough of them up together you might get a product people will buy.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 28m28 minutes ago
LHN is your typewriter. If I go to Denver and get myself a drink at the bar I can ask for them to flip on SECN or BTN. But I can’t get WVU 3rd Tier content outside of West Virginia.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 6h6 hours ago
Don't laugh. I think Mizzou didn't want to go to the SEC and used the threat of the SEC to get OU and UT to agree to equal profit sharing in the Big 12. But once their boosters and fans got hold of the SEC idea they had to make the move.
Trip Manfro @pfac51 6h6 hours ago
remember that time, the Governor of Missouri pleading with the B1G to invite the Tigers?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Yeap...
Trip Manfro @pfac51 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV
would have preferred mizzou, to rutgers.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
Deaton saved the Big 12. Mizzou wanted out to the B1G badly. Mizzou to the B1G would have put WVU in the SEC.
Trip Manfro @pfac51 5h5 hours ago
pretty sure that would have happened. nebby reached out and is a bigger football brand. now if mizzou would have waited, would they have been team 13?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 5h5 hours ago
The better question is why did the B1G pass on adding Mizzou, OU and KU at the same time? I think I know the answer. NJ & MD had larger markets than Kansas & Missouri. OU wasn't AAU.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @theDudeofWV @pfac51
It also had to do with satisfying Penn State and wanting to be a 2 region conference.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @theDudeofWV @pfac51
Delaney has said he will only bring in 2 at a time at the most. Up next is 2 of this 5 (OU, UT, KU, CU, GTech). That’s the end game. Expect it by 2024
Trip Manfro @pfac51 3h3 hours ago
i am on the KU and OU bandwagon.
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Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 4h4 hours ago
It’s not exposure if nobody’s watching. And it would appear from the Nielsens nobody is. The whole purpose of these tier 3 net worth was to harvest carriage fees in a carriage fee cable model system. Without being able to collect those fees they really don’t make sense.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempir[B]e[/B] and 4 others
You realize digital subscriptions are the next pay per view? That the NFL is headed down the same path? The B10 is cutting edge and leading. Everyone else has been reacting and grabbing the cash without future investment.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
And of course there are people watching these other events. Not in the numbers which would be profitable on another network...but when you own half the network with zero debt..well..it’s not an albatross.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
The Big Money will always be in Tier 1 & 2 arena. Big Ten Conference current payouts are the following:
Tier 1&2 = 33-34 mil
BTN = 9 mil
NCAA Tourny Credits+Bowls= 10-11 mil
The 9 mil from BTN is pure profit...without touching other 3T items each school sells independently
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Because of cutting of cable & streaming not being as profitable...will BTN payouts remain flat? Sure. But at some point more fans of Big Ten & SEC...and possibly of Big 12 will pay premium prices for content they want in 3T. BTN is all set to accommodate. Investments been paid.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
I don’t think revenue will Remain flat. I think payments will decline for this stuff if you have to ask people to actively buy it. Because even hard-core fans can live without tier 3 content. The whole model for these stations was to harvest carriage fees. Without those fees ?
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @flugempire and 4 others
Agree on the NFL subscription service that’s already been proven by DIRECTV. But that is because the NFL is so unbelievably popular. College football Isn’t let alone tier 3 college stuff. Take away the carriage fees and it’s not economically viable.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
BTN had 60 million subscriptions in 2014. It now has 59 million and the subs are lot more diversed in nature because of the chord cutting. Big Ten fanbase is already starting to pay for higher services..such as BTN Plus. The Network is popular.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
The Nielsen ratings tell us it is not popular at all. In fact The numbers are so low that they don’t even register. How many of those 59 million subscribers would actually pay for that station? Since so few of them are watching it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Mark,
What happened when Comcast threaten to pull BTN within Big Ten Country? The Big Ten fanbase rose up and told Comcast they will drop them if you drop BTN.
You greatly underestimate the popularity of the Network.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
Numbers don’t lie. Not my opinion.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Ownership doesn’t lie either. BTN does not produce ratings in public. Nielsen doesn’t have those numbers. Advertising are buying up slots on BTN..money is rolling in.
BTN is not on some death bed. 49% Ownership makes it profitable.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
Sorry just have to agree to disagree. There’s nothing I see here that changes the fundamental economics that in a carriage fee free future this is viable. Of course the nature of the content could adapt and maybe enough carriage fees will still be around to make a go of it. ?
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 4 others
Because BTN is tier 1 in B10 states. That’s what the $ from adds are primarily generated from. Think your local regional MLB teams network. Look at the cash they bring in and what they are worth
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 5 others
Let’s talk about the real money. How much do you think the tier 1 and tier 2 deals for the Big Ten in the SEC will be worth in a few years? That’s what really matters.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Much more than they are now. Live content is king, especially when it involves legendary teams and larger markets/fan bases
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
It would have to be Worth a lot more than now.especially for the SEC CBS package which is grossly under valued.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
You realize just last year the B10 was on a contract for tier 1 signed in 2006?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
Both SEC & Big Ten will receive good jumps in their next Tier 1&2 Media negotiations. FOX ratings have skyrocketed since they acquired 1/2 the package. FOX Sports President Mark Silverman just stepped down as BTN President.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
The Question is where does FOX focus on after Big Ten? It will be either PAC or Big 12. And it will be secondary focus after Big Ten...much like ACC is secondary after SEC for Disney/ESPN. PAC and/or Big 12 might need new distributor to step up..which might be a good thing.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
Do you think the Big Ten will have a game of the week tier one package like the SEC does on CBS? It always seem kind a odd to me that they didn’t have that their ratings would seem to support it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 56m56 minutes ago
Big Ten has weekly games on ABC as part of their Disney deal.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
You can’t have a network and only put on live content for 6 months of the year. The Big Ten Network still is producing revenue above costs to the tune of 9 mil per school + 9 mil to B1G Conference with live content year round.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
That revenue is also doubled since half goes to FOX
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
True. It’s why FOX is all in on Big Ten. FOX paid a monster price for 1/2 package for Big Ten Tier 1&2. FOX put pressure on ESPN to follow suit and pay high price for 2nd half of Big Ten Tier 1&2.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
The B10 owns its own network free and clear with controlling stake and did that while the cost was a fraction of what it is today to start one. No other league has that ownership and they can't afford to. P12 tried and is nearly bankrupt.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
While everyone else will rely on Google, Amazon or Apple to sell its secondary and tertiary content in the future at reduced prices, BTN will be doing the same at double or triple the profit because they have no middleman needed to distribute that content. B10 is 10 years ahead.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Its why when you check on Forbes lists of most valued Football Programs it’s dotted with Big Ten schools because of their slices of ownerships of BTN. Even with carriage fees going away Network is all paid by millions of dollars of investments from each school through the years.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Interesting to see where this goes. I would agree with you about the conferences and TV stations. There’s only so many prime windows in a college football Saturday. I guess that is why the Pac 12 consistently relegated to that 1015 slot.
It’s not exposure if nobody’s watching. And it would appear from the Nielsens nobody is. The whole purpose of these tier 3 net worth was to harvest carriage fees in a carriage fee cable model system. Without being able to collect those fees they really don’t make sense.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempir[B]e[/B] and 4 others
You realize digital subscriptions are the next pay per view? That the NFL is headed down the same path? The B10 is cutting edge and leading. Everyone else has been reacting and grabbing the cash without future investment.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
And of course there are people watching these other events. Not in the numbers which would be profitable on another network...but when you own half the network with zero debt..well..it’s not an albatross.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
The Big Money will always be in Tier 1 & 2 arena. Big Ten Conference current payouts are the following:
Tier 1&2 = 33-34 mil
BTN = 9 mil
NCAA Tourny Credits+Bowls= 10-11 mil
The 9 mil from BTN is pure profit...without touching other 3T items each school sells independently
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Because of cutting of cable & streaming not being as profitable...will BTN payouts remain flat? Sure. But at some point more fans of Big Ten & SEC...and possibly of Big 12 will pay premium prices for content they want in 3T. BTN is all set to accommodate. Investments been paid.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
I don’t think revenue will Remain flat. I think payments will decline for this stuff if you have to ask people to actively buy it. Because even hard-core fans can live without tier 3 content. The whole model for these stations was to harvest carriage fees. Without those fees ?
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @flugempire and 4 others
Agree on the NFL subscription service that’s already been proven by DIRECTV. But that is because the NFL is so unbelievably popular. College football Isn’t let alone tier 3 college stuff. Take away the carriage fees and it’s not economically viable.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
BTN had 60 million subscriptions in 2014. It now has 59 million and the subs are lot more diversed in nature because of the chord cutting. Big Ten fanbase is already starting to pay for higher services..such as BTN Plus. The Network is popular.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
The Nielsen ratings tell us it is not popular at all. In fact The numbers are so low that they don’t even register. How many of those 59 million subscribers would actually pay for that station? Since so few of them are watching it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Mark,
What happened when Comcast threaten to pull BTN within Big Ten Country? The Big Ten fanbase rose up and told Comcast they will drop them if you drop BTN.
You greatly underestimate the popularity of the Network.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 3h3 hours ago
Numbers don’t lie. Not my opinion.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Ownership doesn’t lie either. BTN does not produce ratings in public. Nielsen doesn’t have those numbers. Advertising are buying up slots on BTN..money is rolling in.
BTN is not on some death bed. 49% Ownership makes it profitable.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
Sorry just have to agree to disagree. There’s nothing I see here that changes the fundamental economics that in a carriage fee free future this is viable. Of course the nature of the content could adapt and maybe enough carriage fees will still be around to make a go of it. ?
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 4 others
Because BTN is tier 1 in B10 states. That’s what the $ from adds are primarily generated from. Think your local regional MLB teams network. Look at the cash they bring in and what they are worth
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @flugempire and 5 others
Let’s talk about the real money. How much do you think the tier 1 and tier 2 deals for the Big Ten in the SEC will be worth in a few years? That’s what really matters.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
Much more than they are now. Live content is king, especially when it involves legendary teams and larger markets/fan bases
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 2h2 hours ago
It would have to be Worth a lot more than now.especially for the SEC CBS package which is grossly under valued.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 2h2 hours ago
You realize just last year the B10 was on a contract for tier 1 signed in 2006?
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
Both SEC & Big Ten will receive good jumps in their next Tier 1&2 Media negotiations. FOX ratings have skyrocketed since they acquired 1/2 the package. FOX Sports President Mark Silverman just stepped down as BTN President.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 2h2 hours ago
The Question is where does FOX focus on after Big Ten? It will be either PAC or Big 12. And it will be secondary focus after Big Ten...much like ACC is secondary after SEC for Disney/ESPN. PAC and/or Big 12 might need new distributor to step up..which might be a good thing.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Replying to @flugempire @NebGradDubDub and 4 others
Do you think the Big Ten will have a game of the week tier one package like the SEC does on CBS? It always seem kind a odd to me that they didn’t have that their ratings would seem to support it.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 56m56 minutes ago
Big Ten has weekly games on ABC as part of their Disney deal.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @MarkKochenderfe @theDudeofWV and 4 others
You can’t have a network and only put on live content for 6 months of the year. The Big Ten Network still is producing revenue above costs to the tune of 9 mil per school + 9 mil to B1G Conference with live content year round.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 4h4 hours ago
That revenue is also doubled since half goes to FOX
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
True. It’s why FOX is all in on Big Ten. FOX paid a monster price for 1/2 package for Big Ten Tier 1&2. FOX put pressure on ESPN to follow suit and pay high price for 2nd half of Big Ten Tier 1&2.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
The B10 owns its own network free and clear with controlling stake and did that while the cost was a fraction of what it is today to start one. No other league has that ownership and they can't afford to. P12 tried and is nearly bankrupt.
Doug @NebGradDubDub 3h3 hours ago
While everyone else will rely on Google, Amazon or Apple to sell its secondary and tertiary content in the future at reduced prices, BTN will be doing the same at double or triple the profit because they have no middleman needed to distribute that content. B10 is 10 years ahead.
Greg Flugaur @flugempire 3h3 hours ago
Its why when you check on Forbes lists of most valued Football Programs it’s dotted with Big Ten schools because of their slices of ownerships of BTN. Even with carriage fees going away Network is all paid by millions of dollars of investments from each school through the years.
Mark Kochenderfer @MarkKochenderfe 1h1 hour ago
Interesting to see where this goes. I would agree with you about the conferences and TV stations. There’s only so many prime windows in a college football Saturday. I guess that is why the Pac 12 consistently relegated to that 1015 slot.
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February was Aresco’s month to meet exclusively with ESPN brass. One would believe that the agreement is sizable and to the liking of Aresco for him to not even shop beyond ESPN for our tier 1 rights. Encouraging.
whaler11
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there was never going to be another bidder.
hopefully the deal is good - but it was always going to be espn.
there isnt even a second company to float.
CL82
NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions - Again!
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There was unlikely to be a better bidder, particularly on cable. That's why Aresco was touting alternative broadcast partners like Amazon. Plus if we learned nothing from the evisceration of the Big East we learned that you don't F with ESPN. They are the Don Corleone of broadcast partners.
I'm curious to see the terms. If they cement our "P6" position, being I'll be happy. Of course the further they are from the next highest paid G5 league the happier I will be. Wouldn't mind the opportunity to sell our Tier 3 rights. We are one of the few American teams (only one?) that can get value for that.
Not a credible source. He spouts all sorts of nonsense that never comes to fruition.
Dream Jobbed 2.0
“Most definitely”
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But his sunglasses look so honest
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He’s definitely a doofus; however, he does have legit contacts within the conference.
His lack of excitement in the above tweet signals to me that the deal isn’t looking good.
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The deal is not going to be good one way or the other.
If the money is good; I can almost guarantee that means a large presence on ESPN+
CL82
NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions - Again!
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I worry about this. What makes you think so, other than they need content.
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I hear the new TV deal money won't be that great. However, ESPN will be providing ESPN tee shirts and hats to each school in the conference. So, at least we have that going for us.
I think you said it. If they are willing to pay more to park significant games on the ESPN+ platform it puts Aresco in a difficult spot.
Since he was unable to get any real money from ESPN with the last deal he touted the visibility he was able to negotiate. Does he now do a complete 180 & say "we got more money but, nobody will be able to see our games"?
Have I said recently how much i hate this bleepin' conference?
whaler11
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I would suspect it’s ESPN+ to replace CBSSN and ESPN3.
Since they are going to lose some ACC content to that network there will probably be more AAC games on ESPN/2/U.
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Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Some great discussion about the Pac 12 & B12 lately. I thought I would go over some basics about expansion.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
1. Realignment is only posdible if the move: A. makes the network more $; B. Makes the Conf more $ & C. The school is in distress, usually financial, and the move cures the problem for the school. All three must be true for a move to be possible.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
The SEC has the most undervalued OTA TV deal. When the SEC signed the deal with CBS it wasn't the SEC we know today. CBS got the SEC on the super cheap. It's going to take a huge leap.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
An SEC regular season football game is the most valuable commodity in sports. The only reason the B1G is even close to the SEC in earnings is the super cheap CBS deal.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
The ACC is the only conference to have money added to its OTA the TV deal for expansion and that was an accounting trick requiring years added onto the base contract with a lump payout at the end. That deal was what angered FSU and Clemson.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Neither the SEC or B1G had money added to their primary TV deals for expansion. The reason is that OTA networks have limited slots available for broadcast. Thus more inventory does not equal more money.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The carriage fee model was the reason for B1G expansion. The SEC had a chance to add TAMU and did. Mizzou was added because of carriage fees, but TAMU technically was not.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
(Although TAMU added huge carriage fees for SECN.)
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The B1G and SEC are making so much money under the carriage fee model that only two school would add enough value to justify expansion: Texas and Notre Dame. OU does not have enough cable subscribers in Oklahoma to provide enough profit under that model.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
ESPN owns an option on all of the Longhorns media rights until 2035. That means UT cannot leave the Big 12 and join another conf. without ESPN's permission.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The networks want the p5 conferences to remain as they are. They don't want to see a consolidation of rights that would reduce available inventory and increase exponentially the rights fees paid. That's why they are willing to overpay to keep the Big 12 and ACC intact.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 could lose two programs to the Big 12 and both would be more profitable as long as the Pac 12 doesn't lose a tentpole program.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
Expansion was a mistake for the Pac 12. 14 teams just cut into the conference pie. Losing two would mean the pie is divided by 12 pieces instead of 14.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
I don't see how the math works for the Pac 12 with the $500M for 10% idea. The pie is already divided into 15 slices... add a 16th and everyone's slice gets smaller. The $5 billion valuation is likely to get shot down.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
According to people I talk to the SEC has a $5 billion valuation. The Big 12 and B1G are around $3.1 to $3.5 billion. The ACC is next and the Pac 12 dead last. Who's going to invest $500M in a business worth $3 billion at the most?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12's current TV deal is worth a total of $3 billion. That's the current valuation. A $5 billion valuation is a 60% increase!
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
My guess is that if the Pac 12 is serious about the bridge loan & investor it will further fracture the Pac 12 and almost push programs to consider leaving.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 has time to fix it. They could be sitting pretty in five years, but right now they are in trouble.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The very fact the Pac 12 is considering a bridge loan is testament to their issues. The conf is telling programs with revenue issues they have a plan to bridge the gap to the next TV contract in the hopes those programs don't look elsewhere.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
And I believe three or four of them have to be looking at the Big 12 and thinking they will get a better deal.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 knows that networks have overpaid to keep conferences viable before. That's a safe bet, but the bridge loan idea is risky.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
This is just me but if WVU were to go to the ACC and the Big 12 dropped Baylor and merged with the Pac 12 the new 18 member conf would have two 9 team divisions and immediately rival the SEC & B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 57m57 minutes ago
Only 1 ACC program bested WVU in actual game attendance in 2018 - Clemson.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 49m49 minutes ago
WVU averaged 58,157 for six home games equalling 97% capacity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 47m47 minutes ago
Only Clemson & NCST had a greater % of capacity for attendance than WVU and both had 7 home games to WVU's 6.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 43m43 minutes ago
9 of 14 ACC programs averaged less than 55K fans for home games. 11 of 14 averaged less than 90% total capacity. 9 averaged less than 45K home attendance.
ME: Wow! Arithmetic is not his strong suit.
Some great discussion about the Pac 12 & B12 lately. I thought I would go over some basics about expansion.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
1. Realignment is only posdible if the move: A. makes the network more $; B. Makes the Conf more $ & C. The school is in distress, usually financial, and the move cures the problem for the school. All three must be true for a move to be possible.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
The SEC has the most undervalued OTA TV deal. When the SEC signed the deal with CBS it wasn't the SEC we know today. CBS got the SEC on the super cheap. It's going to take a huge leap.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
An SEC regular season football game is the most valuable commodity in sports. The only reason the B1G is even close to the SEC in earnings is the super cheap CBS deal.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
The ACC is the only conference to have money added to its OTA the TV deal for expansion and that was an accounting trick requiring years added onto the base contract with a lump payout at the end. That deal was what angered FSU and Clemson.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 3h3 hours ago
Neither the SEC or B1G had money added to their primary TV deals for expansion. The reason is that OTA networks have limited slots available for broadcast. Thus more inventory does not equal more money.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The carriage fee model was the reason for B1G expansion. The SEC had a chance to add TAMU and did. Mizzou was added because of carriage fees, but TAMU technically was not.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
(Although TAMU added huge carriage fees for SECN.)
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The B1G and SEC are making so much money under the carriage fee model that only two school would add enough value to justify expansion: Texas and Notre Dame. OU does not have enough cable subscribers in Oklahoma to provide enough profit under that model.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
ESPN owns an option on all of the Longhorns media rights until 2035. That means UT cannot leave the Big 12 and join another conf. without ESPN's permission.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The networks want the p5 conferences to remain as they are. They don't want to see a consolidation of rights that would reduce available inventory and increase exponentially the rights fees paid. That's why they are willing to overpay to keep the Big 12 and ACC intact.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 could lose two programs to the Big 12 and both would be more profitable as long as the Pac 12 doesn't lose a tentpole program.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
Expansion was a mistake for the Pac 12. 14 teams just cut into the conference pie. Losing two would mean the pie is divided by 12 pieces instead of 14.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
I don't see how the math works for the Pac 12 with the $500M for 10% idea. The pie is already divided into 15 slices... add a 16th and everyone's slice gets smaller. The $5 billion valuation is likely to get shot down.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
According to people I talk to the SEC has a $5 billion valuation. The Big 12 and B1G are around $3.1 to $3.5 billion. The ACC is next and the Pac 12 dead last. Who's going to invest $500M in a business worth $3 billion at the most?
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12's current TV deal is worth a total of $3 billion. That's the current valuation. A $5 billion valuation is a 60% increase!
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
My guess is that if the Pac 12 is serious about the bridge loan & investor it will further fracture the Pac 12 and almost push programs to consider leaving.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 has time to fix it. They could be sitting pretty in five years, but right now they are in trouble.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The very fact the Pac 12 is considering a bridge loan is testament to their issues. The conf is telling programs with revenue issues they have a plan to bridge the gap to the next TV contract in the hopes those programs don't look elsewhere.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
And I believe three or four of them have to be looking at the Big 12 and thinking they will get a better deal.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
The Pac 12 knows that networks have overpaid to keep conferences viable before. That's a safe bet, but the bridge loan idea is risky.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 2h2 hours ago
This is just me but if WVU were to go to the ACC and the Big 12 dropped Baylor and merged with the Pac 12 the new 18 member conf would have two 9 team divisions and immediately rival the SEC & B1G.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 57m57 minutes ago
Only 1 ACC program bested WVU in actual game attendance in 2018 - Clemson.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 49m49 minutes ago
WVU averaged 58,157 for six home games equalling 97% capacity.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 47m47 minutes ago
Only Clemson & NCST had a greater % of capacity for attendance than WVU and both had 7 home games to WVU's 6.
Christopher Lambert @theDudeofWV 43m43 minutes ago
9 of 14 ACC programs averaged less than 55K fans for home games. 11 of 14 averaged less than 90% total capacity. 9 averaged less than 45K home attendance.
ME: Wow! Arithmetic is not his strong suit.
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Am I understanding this correctly? ACC media structure grows with more inventory? With their network set to launch, wouldn’t it make sense to add more content/schools while also increasing the size of their TV deal? “The ACC is the only conference to have money added to its OTA the TV deal for expansion and that was an accounting trick requiring years added onto the base contract with a lump payout at the end. That deal was what angered FSU and Clemson.”
They normally farm out the games they don't want to CBSSN & ESPN3.
If the goal is to drive behavior and get people to start watching ESPN+ regularly I wouldn't be surprised if they actually put more marquee games on the platform. When they launched ESPN2, the first event was Carolina/Duke, and they regularly aired ACC & Big East games on the "deuce" and reminded you to complain to your cable provider if they didn't offer it.
Even with the ACC Network coming, I'm concerned that the AAC will be the ESPN+ guinea pig
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Carriage fees are important, but theyre not everything.
A strong program (like Okla) increases the quality of matchups which raises ratings. This is valuable both to the networks but also to future suitors like Amazon or Netflix.
Carriage fees will not be enough if no one is watching your product. And, again, with the rise of streaming, who knows how much longer carriage fee revenue will exist.
A strong program (like Okla) increases the quality of matchups which raises ratings. This is valuable both to the networks but also to future suitors like Amazon or Netflix.
Carriage fees will not be enough if no one is watching your product. And, again, with the rise of streaming, who knows how much longer carriage fee revenue will exist.