Non-Key Tweets

[Fishy]

I realize that these tweets from The Dood and Flug essentially equate to fan fiction, but at the very least they are interesting to discuss.

Could the B1G actually be able to leverage ESPN into denying the ACC a conference network? -Unlikely IMO.

Could the difference in revenue between The B1G and ACC be so wide following The B1G's new deal that ACC Stalwarts like UNC or VA could no longer ignore it?- Possibly. How could you ignore making 1-2 hundred million less over a decade?

If Espin controlled the media rights of The B1G, ACC, and SEC, could they essentially direct membership decsions within these conferences in order to obtain maximum revenues for themselves? For example say GT would generate more money as a member of the B1G, could they facilitate that switch? It would seem unlikely, but I imagine it is possible if they are willing to compensate the remaining teams that are left behind.

Would Espin stand aside and allow two other properties destroy a third? Again very hard to imagine, unless Espin's end game is to facilitate 4 super conferences.

Could a substantially larger B1G and SEC with additional marquee properties be more profitable to them than The B1G, SEC, and ACC as they are currently configured? Possibly, but if the left behind schools are relegated to what equates to G5 Status for football, they would likely need to be compensated at P5 Rates in order to avoid major litigation.

1) I doubt the Big Ten cares if the ACC has a network or not. The Big Ten and the SEC have already sewn up their network deals and there's crumbs left.

2) If the ACC deal expires in 12 years and the Big Ten is raking in $20M more a year which is a conservative estimate, the ACC is going to be picked clean. Money doesn't always trump tradition, but nine-figures worth of money surely does.

3) I am sure they could.

4) The Big East says hello. Or would, if it weren't dead.

5) I don't see where the ACC would have any place to stand in litigation.

 

[pj]

5) I don't see where the ACC would have any place to stand in litigation.

To date, there hasn't been a down-tick in incomes due to realignment (UConn has lost relative status, not absolute income). But at the next go-round, there likely would be. If the valuable parts of the ACC, UNC, UVa, FSU, Va Tech jumped to the B1G or SEC, gaining $20 mn per year, the remnants would drift down to G5 level payouts probably $10 mn a year below current levels. By shrinking the pool of highly-paid teams and increasing the pool of second-class schools, the motivation for an antitrust lawsuit would substantially increase.

Athletic leagues are quite vulnerable to antitrust lawsuits, because the whole concept of organizing a league and scheduling within it is a form of exclusion of other partners and directly contrary to antitrust law. That is why most professional leagues got exemptions from antitrust law.

The leftover ACC teams would have no case in contract law, but in antitrust law they would.

 

[Fishy]

We haven't lost absolute income?

You sure about that?

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Christopher Lambert ‏
Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 29m 29 minutes ago
@theDudeofWV This scenario is at the top of Delanys wish list...but the problem is there has been little to no interest from GT and UVA

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 28m 28 minutes ago
@theDudeofWV Delany and BTN would montize the Jeebus out of Atlanta and the state of Virginia. People would be shocked to find out what...

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 27m 27 minutes ago
@theDudeofWV ...a big hub of Big Ten Alumni Atlanta has become. Atlanta has a huge Bug Ten Chapter down in the middle of the City.

Well, he has one fact right, Atlanta is a major 'hub' for B1G alumni as a lot of traditional Midwest manufacturing and attached service jobs have relocated over the last 20 years to S Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama with Atlanta right in the middle. If G Tech was available, I do believe the B1G would grab them. Even with a mediocre athletic program, the B1G would be able to generate a lot of money out of the area based on the alumni population and its a solid recruiting area for football and to a lesser degree basketball. Basically, a southern version of Rutgers that has more football cred and top level academics, especially engineering.

 

[MattMang23]

If it were hockey that got us into the B1G... I don't even know what to say...

 

[Kolumbo]

What about a doubleheader of afternoon Hockey/evening Basketball against Ohio State or Michigan in Hartford or Bridgeport. I think that would attract some viewership, both attendance and television.
Hold the phones Chuck. The B1G does not sponsor Women's Hockey. That might be a deal breaker.

 

[pj]

We haven't lost absolute income?

You sure about that?

The old Big East deal (pre-2013) was worth $3.1 million annually for all-sports members, $1.5 million for non-football members. http://espn.go.com/college-football...orks-other-espn-new-tv-deal-according-sources

Not looking up the current numbers, but the new AAC deal is worth ~$1.5 million annually and we also get exit fee money of close to $6 mn per year. $7.5 mn > $3.1 mn.

When this deal expires and the exit fee money runs out, we may take a haircut. But ACC schools like Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Wake, Duke have a lot farther to fall.

 

[kyleslamb]

He's definitely right about Atlanta being a Big Ten hub. Having lived in Atlanta the past eight years until this past year, I was amazed at the number of OSU and Big Ten fans down there. There are a ton. The whole city is a transient city, in fact. That said, adding Georgia Tech does very little to help interest in Atlanta of the Big Ten. Tech is a great, great school and a great cultural fit, despite its location in the South, but it doesn't move the needle enough.

I think the point about the Big Ten negotiating with ESPN against an ACC Network is that the network not coming to fruition keeps the distance between the ACC and B1G large enough that schools like UVA, GT, etc. would consider jumping. Not sure I buy the Big Ten using that tactic, but I can see the rationale.

 

[Fishy]

The old Big East deal (pre-2013) was worth $3.1 million annually for all-sports members...

Our television income will be 1/3rd of what it was and exit fees are meaningless to the conversation.

Like us, the ACC refugees would be without legal options.

 

[upstater]

Southern states are cutting subsidies for higher education at a much faster rate than northern schools. When you couple this with the rise in tuition thatr accompanies cut subsidies, AND the lower average salaries in the south, then you do see increased pressure southern schools to earn as much as they possibly can from sports., The only thing standing in the way is Southern sentiment and pride (i.e. alumni, boosters, politicians).

 

[itgoeslike]

We haven't lost absolute income?

You sure about that?

The last year of the Big East (ending June 30, 2012) UConn received $10,080,827.
The first year of the AAC (ending June 30, 2013) UConn received $13,913,536.
It will be interesting to see what the period ending June 30, 2014 comes in at.

 

[jostar1]

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 18h18 hours ago
@Expansion_Crush FSU was at the center of the B1G's fight over AAU status. OSU fought hard to get FSU into the B1G.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 4h4 hours ago
@Expansion_Crush @theDudeofWV But you need big research money..or be on a trajectory to become big rearch insutution. Need to be like minded

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire @Expansion_Crush I have a new source who is connected to B1G. He says AAU status is necessary.

Redhawk Land Service ‏@RedhawkLand · 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @Expansion_Crush @flugempire AAU not "necessary" but desired. AAU is closed private club. AAU only very limited #'s available

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand @theDudeofWV @Expansion_Crush Big Ten Presidents will vote yes. OU ranked only 1 slot behind NEB in research dollars last year.

Christopher Lambert‏@theDudeofWV @flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush I've seen a document.. a memo to all in The Council of Presidents and Chancellors (COP/C)

Christopher Lambert‏@theDudeofWV @flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush that says otherwise.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush When was this letter put out? If there is an absolute binding rule where no Non AAU school...

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush ...would ever be admitted to enter into the Big Ten conference...then why is Big Ten talking...

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush ...with ASU for partial membership in Big Ten hockey? Please don't tell me letter makes...

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush ...difference between partial and full. But I'm open to being persuaded. Forward me letter-thanks

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush Greg... associate members in non revenue sports are not applicable. It just doesn't count.

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush Nobody cares abou wrestling or hockey. They are non-revenue sports.

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush They gentlemen I spoke to earlier this week has direct knowledge of COP/C decisions.

Christopher Lambert ‏@theDudeofWV · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush I can't stress that strongly enough when I say direct knowledge. He's in the room with them.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush But AAU is a simple scorboard...mostly effective one for Big Ten Presidents to use. But AAU is..

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush ...an independent body made up of a great number of very small schools who each get vote on..

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush ...AAU membership. Delany-FOX-BTN and the Presidents are not going to limited by Independent body

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@theDudeofWV @RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush Hockey is a revenue sport. And Big Ten is interested in Arizona St..confirmed both parties

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush @theDudeofWV Big Ten wants like minded insututions to be members..AAU gives strong indications of that.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire
· 3h 3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush @theDudeofWV But AAU status is not the end of the discussion..not for billon dollar discussions

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand Of course Oklahoma has been approached by Delany. I know this...my contacts told Chris a couple of months before it went public

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 3h 3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand ...a couple of months before April of 2012. AAU will not control all actions of a multi billion dollar conference.

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 2h 2 hours ago
@RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush @theDudeofWV Hockey is a revenue sport...and ASU is wanted by Big Ten. Arizona st might go to NCHC..but...

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 2h 2 hours ago
@RedhawkLand @Expansion_Crush @theDudeofWV ..Big Ten wants a non AAU Arizona St to play conference hockey games on BTN

Greg Flugaur @flugempire · 2h 2 hours ago
@RedhawkLand I got to bounce to...but AAU is an enhancer...not a decision maker. Delany looking east for eyeballs on BTN. If unsuccessful..

Redhawk Land Service ‏@RedhawkLand · 3h3 hours ago
@flugempire I'm not "just a fan" with just an "opinion". I know some OU people personally. Big Ten did approach OU with a conceptual plan.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire · 3h3 hours ago
@RedhawkLand ...a couple of months before April of 2012. AAU will not control all actions of a multi billion dollar conference.

Greg Flugaur‏@flugempire 2h2 hours ago
@RedhawkLand ...Boren and Delany will hook up again in near future. Why? because neither wants to leave money on the table. OU is mega value

 

[btstimpy]

I realize that these tweets from The Dood and Flug essentially equate to fan fiction, but at the very least they are interesting to discuss.

Could the difference in revenue between The B1G and ACC be so wide following The B1G's new deal that ACC Stalwarts like UNC or VA could no longer ignore it?- Possibly. How could you ignore making 1-2 hundred million less over a decade?

Why does everyone think that the next B1G Tier 1 media contract will double or dwarf the ACC or other conferences? The B1G does not drive ratings anywhere near double the ACC or any of the other conferences, except for maybe the Big XII, in football. I don't have basketball numbers for this year, but I'd bet that the ACC is higher than the B1G in basketball ratings. ESPN should have more astute business people at the helm than to be that risky. If Fox wants to overpay for the B1G, let Fox overpay. The B1G could join the Big East over on FS1.

Football ratings for 2014: http://texags.com/s/15550/infographic-2014-college-football-tv-ratings

I get the part about the BTN driving cable subscribers and needing states, but don't get the notion of the B1G windfall for tier 1. The ratings are just not there.

 

[CL82]

If it were hockey that got us into the B1G... I don't even know what to say...

I do...

 

[UConn990411]

Why does everyone think that the next B1G Tier 1 media contract will double or dwarf the ACC or other conferences? The B1G does not drive ratings anywhere near double the ACC or any of the other conferences, except for maybe the Big XII, in football. I don't have basketball numbers for this year, but I'd bet that the ACC is higher than the B1G in basketball ratings. ESPN should have more astute business people at the helm than to be that risky. If Fox wants to overpay for the B1G, let Fox overpay. The B1G could join the Big East over on FS1.

Football ratings for 2014: http://texags.com/s/15550/infographic-2014-college-football-tv-ratings

I get the part about the BTN driving cable subscribers and needing states, but don't get the notion of the B1G windfall for tier 1. The ratings are just not there.

Per usual, you don't have any clue what you're talking.

 

[Husky25]

UConn is not going from Hockey East to Big Ten Hockey without a concrete arrangement (read: more than just a MOU) that the rest of the Athletic Department's inclusion is imminent.

 

[btstimpy]

Per usual, you don't have any clue what you're talking.

What part of the B1G's 2.5 million average viewers per football game in 2014 and the ACC's 2.3 million average viewers per football game is confusing you? Why would any network pay double for 200,000 viewers when it would trigger increasing the ACC's cost due to the contract "look in" in 2017? It seems to be the prevailing opinion of the Dude from Minnesota, but it doesn't make a bit of business sense for ESPN.

Now Fox needs content. They overpaid for the Big East basketball. Maybe they will overpay the B1G. We'll have to see.

 

[Fishy]

Why does everyone think that the next B1G Tier 1 media contract will double or dwarf the ACC or other conferences? .

God, you're so stupid.

 

[btstimpy]

God, you're so stupid.

The Tier 1 contract is to provide content for advertisers to pay to reach viewers. ESPN/ABC will not get double the viewers with the B1G over the ACC . It's not even close to double. The ACC contract tiggers an increase in 2017 if the market is paying more for other conferences to basically match within about 10%. If Fox wants to overpay for the B1G, ESPN should let them do so.

 

[pj]

The Tier 1 contract is to provide content for advertisers to pay to reach viewers. ESPN/ABC will not get double the viewers with the B1G over the ACC . It's not even close to double. The ACC contract tiggers an increase in 2017 if the market is paying more for other conferences to basically match within about 10%. If Fox wants to overpay for the B1G, ESPN should let them do so.

You don't understand the economics of the cable business. Over-the-air, advertising based revenues are driven by number of viewers. Cable revenues are not - rather a passionate minority can drive revenues - and the B1G has that passionate minority in many markets. The ACC does not. Too many of their schools attract passion only locally (Pitt) or among a small group of alumni (BC). The B1G is full of state schools in which every geographic part of the state has an interest in its school.

So while advertising revenue may be similar between the leagues, cable subscriber revenue is vastly higher for the B1G. That means ESPN makes more money by having B1G games than ACC games, and will pay more for them. It also means the B1G can make a BTN work, while the ACC will be hard pressed to get an ACCN off the ground.

 

[Ldandy]

Why does everyone think that the next B1G Tier 1 media contract will double or dwarf the ACC or other conferences? The B1G does not drive ratings anywhere near double the ACC or any of the other conferences, except for maybe the Big XII, in football. I don't have basketball numbers for this year, but I'd bet that the ACC is higher than the B1G in basketball ratings. ESPN should have more astute business people at the helm than to be that risky. If Fox wants to overpay for the B1G, let Fox overpay. The B1G could join the Big East over on FS1.

Football ratings for 2014: http://texags.com/s/15550/infographic-2014-college-football-tv-ratings

I get the part about the BTN driving cable subscribers and needing states, but don't get the notion of the B1G windfall for tier 1. The ratings are just not there.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...-projected-to-get-45-million-with-new-tv-deal

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ence-network-money-revenue-sec-big-ten-pac-12

 

[btstimpy]

You don't understand the economics of the cable business. Over-the-air, advertising based revenues are driven by number of viewers. Cable revenues are not - rather a passionate minority can drive revenues - and the B1G has that passionate minority in many markets. The ACC does not. Too many of their schools attract passion only locally (Pitt) or among a small group of alumni (BC). The B1G is full of state schools in which every geographic part of the state has an interest in its school.

So while advertising revenue may be similar between the leagues, cable subscriber revenue is vastly higher for the B1G. That means ESPN makes more money by having B1G games than ACC games, and will pay more for them. It also means the B1G can make a BTN work, while the ACC will be hard pressed to get an ACCN off the ground.

There is no evidence to support the bolded part of your answer. They won't make more money because there aren't significantly more viewers. The football viewer averages are less than 10% difference. The SEC is the conference with significantly more football viewers.

The ACCN part is debatable. The Raycom syndication has rapidly been picked up by TV stations and Regional Sports Networks to reach 90 million homes nationwide since they expanded from the ACC footprint due to the ESPN contract. The cable model is not based on viewers. The contracts are based on statewide subscribers and subscriber fees. People have to pay for the channel even if they don't watch it. The ACC has the largest cable subscriber footprint of any conference. The question is only how much could the subscriber fee be. Those large B1G alumni bases help fill stadiums, but it's not making much difference with television viewers.

 

[btstimpy]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...-projected-to-get-45-million-with-new-tv-deal

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ence-network-money-revenue-sec-big-ten-pac-12

I've seen the articles projecting this, but viewer numbers don't support it. The "look in" clauses of the ACC contract trigger ESPN to match for the ACC if it is from ESPN. The time frame for the match is in 2017 and 2022. So if the B1G gets that, so will the ACC or close to it. My question is why would ESPN drive up the cost? I can see Fox doing it, but not ESPN.

 

[Seaa Blue]

The question is only how much could the subscriber fee be. Those large B1G alumni bases help fill stadiums, but it's not making much difference with television viewers.

Those large alumni bases in NYC are what made carriage of BTN happen (well, of course Rutgers helped )

 

[Fishy]

I've seen the articles projecting this, but viewer numbers don't support it. The "look in" clauses of the ACC contract trigger ESPN to match for the ACC if it is from ESPN. The time frame for the match is in 2017 and 2022. So if the B1G gets that, so will the ACC or close to it. My question is why would ESPN drive up the cost? I can see Fox doing it, but not ESPN.

Please stop posting here.

We get a nice little roll going and then you come barreling in off the short bus.

Go away. Stay away. Never come back.

You. Are. Too. Stupid.