This is a bit of a tautology, though. Good, well-coached teams have better odds of beating everyone, otherwise they wouldn't be good and well-coached. And for example we didn't lose to Creighton in either game due to defense.
But it is true that our defense was a bit disappointing overall this season, considering the personnel. We took a small step back despite improvements from Sanogo and veterans everywhere in the rotation. I wouldn't be surprised if Hurley does change up the system a bit. A lot of new personnel, easier to do it now.
Our games this vs HOF/elite coaches were: 2x vs Creighton, 3x vs Nova, MSU, and WVU.
We were a better team than Creighton, and we still haven't beat them...ever. We were clearly more talented this year and last.
We were better than MSU. We were better than WVU.
I think 'Nova was going to have our number 2/3 games no matter what, so I won't count them.
We also lost 5/6 games vs elite coaches the year before. And 3/4 the year before that. And 8/9 the year before that. I have Hurley at 3-19 vs HOF coaches
Is it a coincidence that last season we lost 4/4 games vs HOF coaches? Maybe, maybe not. I won't make the call for you. But I think it's pretty objective that 1) we lose close games, 2) we lose to HOF coaches even when our team is better, 3) we rarely lose games we're supposed to win. #3 is a good place to start, but we need changes to get to the next step.
IMO the way Hurley coaches rarely ends up with us punching above our weight class. We win more of these games... maybe not even most, but MORE if Hurley learns how to make adjustments on both ends of the floor.