If they don't fall asleep FSU should win by 17. If they do for a quarter or more they could lose. Bowl games are funny because they take place long after the season is over. It's a huge break if you're not motivated. And having extra time to study a more talented team is and advantage when you're the underdog.
I don't think they have quite recovered from losing to Florida. An extended "hangover" of sorts is still a possibility in my opinion.