To be more precise, NIL contracts cannot be used in advance as a recruiting inducement. Recruits will undoubtedly be aware of which schools present better NIL opportunities once they arrive on campus. NIL will have a bearing on recruiting, just as the opportunity to play for a championship under a talented coach who’s players develop their potential and usually end up in the pros.
Under the NCAA rules, the schools cannot participate in the NIL contracts. It has to be a completely private transaction. I think NIL opportunities will be known by top recruits BEFORE they arrive on campus and that will factor into their decision. Do I play for college X that has little or no national exposure and maybe have a few intrastate deals or do I play for UCONN, SC, or Stanford ( as examples) that have visible national programs and get national deals.
I predict that this rule change and the new transfer rules will be the death knell for mid majors trying to hold onto talent they developed. Now a player can jump to College Y after two years and an all conference selection and sign a sweet deal because they are now on a national exposure team with absolutely no restrictions, compensation to the abandoned team, or signed contracts with the teams. You are not just transferring now to play for a better team and win, or to get a masters in a certain discipline, you are transferring to make money.
That's how this differs from the pros, they have contracts with the teams. Here, the contracts are with the companies whose products they are endorsing. It is my guess that those contracts will require the player to stay at a certain college. For how long? Does it depend on performance? What about an injury and you don't play? Are you playing for the school or for the company whose new workout apparel you are endorsing? I have about as much confidence in the NCAA enforcing the new rules and implementing them in an equitable manner that I have in the refereeing in the Final Four being outstanding.