My first thought it that who plays the most minutes, especially at key times, is more important than who starts.
My second thought is that no one gets "demoted." Kia has been a starter her entire career, after her first 2 games, so that will not change. Gabby, Lou, and Napheesa likely will be All-Americans. They will start. So, that's 4 of the 5.
Then the question becomes: Azura with her height and skill or Crystal with her quickness and ball-handling? I go back and forth on this. Some folks seem 100% certain it is Azura. A smaller number think it will be Crystal. As of now, I'm actually leaning toward Crystal. As good as Azura is, why do I think she might not start? See my first point--Maya early in her first year and Kaleena for most of her first year did not start, but they played 30 minutes or so and finished games. Azura will get LOTS of playing time, which is the most important thing, whether she starts or not. If Z starts, that leaves ball-handling to Kia, Lou, and maybe Gabby. I don't think that is Geno's first choice. A second point may relate to Azura's status as a redshirt Junior. She will be WNBA eligible after next season. Geno may be able to keep her around by enticing her with the starting slot her senior year. (Some speculate that he accepted her as a transfer only based on an agreement to stay for 3 years and play for 2 years.) After Kia and Gabby graduate, the replacement pattern will be obvious: Pheesa, Lou, and Crystal continue to start, Azura steps in for Gabby, and Megan steps in for Kia.