Newest NET ranking (ie, the one that counts) | The Boneyard

Newest NET ranking (ie, the one that counts)

HuskyNan

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The NET doesn't show any points separating the ranking for each team.
That makes it hard to distinguish & means that we don't know the amount of separation between each team on a game by game basis.
THat makes it hard to predict how much teams can rise or fall as the season progresses.
I suspect that as the SOS of teams fluctuates that it can contribute to affecting each tean's position.
 
This is what the Tournament Committee uses for part of the seeding process, not the AP, Coaches polls or Massey.
 
The NET doesn't show any points separating the ranking for each team.
That makes it hard to distinguish & means that we don't know the amount of separation between each team on a game by game basis.
THat makes it hard to predict how much teams can rise or fall as the season progresses.
I suspect that as the SOS of teams fluctuates that it can contribute to affecting each tean's position.
It’s not a poll that’s voted on, like the AP. The NET is mathematically derived and is tallied by a computer. The Selection Committee uses NET as a criterion, not the AP or Coach’s Poll.

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Just looking at the bullet points on that, at least we have no bad losses and were competitive in the three losses (by 11, 11, and 12 points). Hopefully we can be perfect in conference. Wins against ND and South Carolina + a Big East title locks up a #1 seed IMO even if there are a bunch of other P5 teams with less losses.
 
What is confusing to me is how NC State moves up 1 after a narrow OT win against FSU and then a narrow loss to VT.
Do the people in charge of the NET algorithm disclose how each factor is weighted in order to come up with the value? For instance, NS State also lost a key player, so did that factor help them?
 
This is what the Tournament Committee uses for part of the seeding process, not the AP, Coaches polls or Massey.
I know, but some years it appears that the committee uses a ouija board!
 
What is confusing to me is how NC State moves up 1 after a narrow OT win against FSU and then a narrow loss to VT.
Do the people in charge of the NET algorithm disclose how each factor is weighted in order to come up with the value? For instance, NS State also lost a key player, so did that factor help them?
There are 2 bits of info on the graphic I posted above. One lists the criterion the Committee uses for seeding. The second shows what’s included in the NET calculation. I’m posting the second only below to avoid confusion. As you can see, injuries don’t factor into the mathematical equation

NC State lost to a ranked team, and #16 NET, on the road but in the same week, they beat a ranked team (FSU) at home. The road loss didn’t ding them too badly, same as UConn’s three road/neutral site losses

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There are 2 bits of info on the graphic I posted above. One lists the criterion the Committee uses for seeding. The second shows what’s included in the NET calculation. I’m posting the second only below to avoid confusion. As you can see, injuries don’t factor into the mathematical equation

NC State lost to a ranked team, and #16 NET, on the road but in the same week, they beat a ranked team (FSU) at home. The road loss didn’t ding them too badly, same as UConn’s three road/neutral site losses

View attachment 94905
Ah, I (obviously) misread the graphics. I thought that the first graphic was for the makeup of the NET, not the makeup of the seeding. And after your reply, I looked closer only to see that the NET is included in the first graphic. Doh!
I wasn't picking on NS State's rating, I was just wondering why they moved up.
 
There are 2 bits of info on the graphic I posted above. One lists the criterion the Committee uses for seeding. The second shows what’s included in the NET calculation. I’m posting the second only below to avoid confusion. As you can see, injuries don’t factor into the mathematical equation

NC State lost to a ranked team, and #16 NET, on the road but in the same week, they beat a ranked team (FSU) at home. The road loss didn’t ding them too badly, same as UConn’s three road/neutral site losses

View attachment 94905
I realize that.
The point Ithat I'm trying to make is that it doesn't show each team's numerical scores separating each team.
Some teams may have much closer numerical scores separating them than others, but it's kept hidden from the fans.
And because it's hidden, it makes it tougher to see how close or apart their NET scores are to each other.

Huskynan, didn't you ever wonder why the NET scores are not being shown like the votes & ballots of the AP poll?
If their actual scores were shown on a daily basis then we as fans would have a better idea about whether the teams below us would be able to catch up or overtake UConn in the NET rankings before the end of the season as the other teams begin to play their strong conference schedules.
It may seem like a minor issue but it's about the transparency of showing us the actual scores & not only the rankings that the scores represent.
The NET scores are like the individual votes & points of the AP Poll which are very transparent for all fans to see.
 
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I suspect that #4 Net ranking is not going to last even if UConn wins out (except for the SC game). UCLA, and maybe NC St too, are going to rise if they also win out in conference play from here. Maybe Iowa too. A win over Stanford, for example, is likely to push UCLA into the top 4. Of course any losses they take in conference will keep them down. I expect we’ll end up in the NET top 8.

As a side note, I’ve come to appreciate the NET more over the last couple years. It’s more reliable in February than it is in December, but that’s inevitable.
 
There are 2 bits of info on the graphic I posted above. One lists the criterion the Committee uses for seeding. The second shows what’s included in the NET calculation. I’m posting the second only below to avoid confusion. As you can see, injuries don’t factor into the mathematical equation

NC State lost to a ranked team, and #16 NET, on the road but in the same week, they beat a ranked team (FSU) at home. The road loss didn’t ding them too badly, same as UConn’s three road/neutral site losses

View attachment 94905
Just clarifying the obvious. "Ranked team" doesn't mean "top 25" like AP or Coaches Polls. The higher ranked win or loss (by NET) helps more than a lower ranked by NET. Of course, the NET rankings are constantly changing and the value of the win loss is changing with the rank. SCar and UConn are not getting as much out of the wins over Maryland at this time as when they happened. They are still a Quad One if you play them on the road or neutral. They are only a Quad Two if you play them at home - as we did.)

The value is why I look so closely at the Quads in forming my opinion. I give most value to One wins, less to Quad two's and I throw out the quad three and four wins completely. I do penalize for the rare quad 3/4 loss.

BTW UConn is a 3 seed in today's bracketology FWIW
 
NET, Massey, AP, coaches polls - especially bracketology - from November thru February have little meaning in the grand scheme.

Only thing that matters is which D1 team hoists NC trophy after very last game of the season. No one will debate their NET.

LSU was blasted on fan forums and social media for SOS last season. LSU won NC and ended up with #3 NET.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketballw/2023/net
 
Quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3, 4 losses will be important to NCAA tournament selection committee.
 
I know, but some years it appears that the committee uses a ouija board!

NCAA tournament committee moves teams up and down the S curve in order to meet committee's rule of thumb limiting the number of conference opponents in one region.

Maybe even for travel costs?? Anyone know if NCAA tournament committee considers travel costs $$ during seeding?
 
Huskynan, didn't you ever wonder why the NET scores are not being shown like the votes & ballots of the AP poll?
If their actual scores were shown on a daily basis then we as fans would have a better idea about whether the teams below us would be able to catch up or overtake UConn in the NET rankings before the end of the season as the other teams begin to play their strong conference schedules.
It may seem like a minor issue but it's about the transparency of showing us the actual scores & not only the rankings that the scores represent.
The NET scores are like the individual votes & points of the AP Poll which are very transparent for all fans to see.
I’m not understanding why the point total is of importance. There is nothing a team can do to “catch up” but keep winning, which is every team’s goal.

My point is that NET is more important than any poll because the polls aren’t used in seeding for the tour. But NET is only one criterion; UConn’s overall strength of schedule and performance in conference play may end up being more valuable
 
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Just clarifying the obvious. "Ranked team" doesn't mean "top 25" like AP or Coaches Polls. The higher ranked win or loss (by NET) helps more than a lower ranked by NET. Of course, the NET rankings are constantly changing and the value of the win loss is changing with the rank. SCar and UConn are not getting as much out of the wins over Maryland at this time as when they happened. They are still a Quad One if you play them on the road or neutral. They are only a Quad Two if you play them at home - as we did.)

The value is why I look so closely at the Quads in forming my opinion. I give most value to One wins, less to Quad two's and I throw out the quad three and four wins completely. I do penalize for the rare quad 3/4 loss.

BTW UConn is a 3 seed in today's bracketology FWIW

What About the Quadrant System?

Hoops diehards are probably wondering if the so-called Quadrant System is still in play with NET rankings. The NCAA still utilizes the Quadrant System for March Madness tournament selections and seeding. Essentially, at the end of the season, the NET sorts games into tiers, from Quadrant 1 at the top through Quadrant 4.

The men’s and women’s Quadrant Systems differ slightly in that the men’s uses a weighted system to account for home, neutral site, and road games. The women’s system doesn’t differentiate based on where games are played and simply sorts teams into four quadrants based on NET ranking: Quad 1 (NET 1-25), Quad 2 (NET 26-50), Quad 3 (NET 51-100), and Quad 4 (NET 101+).


 
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Quads are used for the men’s NET but not for the women’s
Correct the are not calculated in. but they are still a decent indicator of who a team has won or lost against. The committee does look at team sheets in close calls - which contain the quad breakdowns

UConn is 4-3 inn Quad 1, 4-0 in Quad 2. (11 quad 1/2 opponents. The most in the nation)
LSU is 2-1 in Quad 1, 1-0 in 2. (Only 4 quad 1/2 opponents! Nine of their wins have been against Quad 4 teams and 3 against Quad 3's).
 
Correct the are not calculated in. but they are still a decent indicator of who a team has won or lost against. The committee does look at team sheets in close calls - which contain the quad breakdowns

UConn is 4-3 inn Quad 1, 4-0 in Quad 2. (11 quad 1/2 opponents. The most in the nation)
LSU is 2-1 in Quad 1, 1-0 in 2. (Only 4 quad 1/2 opponents! Nine of their wins have been against Quad 4 teams and 3 against Quad 3's).

Thank you
 
The only way to force teams to play more Quad 1 & 2 opponents is to use the Quads for the Women's NCAA Tournament seeding. In the long run it should make Women's basketball better by forcing teams to play more than cupcakes schedules. It would also be more entertaining for TV viewing watching teams that are in the Top 2 Quads playing against each other instead of blowouts against Quad 3 & 4 teams.
 
What is confusing to me is how NC State moves up 1 after a narrow OT win against FSU and then a narrow loss to VT.
Do the people in charge of the NET algorithm disclose how each factor is weighted in order to come up with the value? For instance, NS State also lost a key player, so did that factor help them?
NET uses a mathematical formula, and does not factor in injuries or other factors.
 

What About the Quadrant System?

Hoops diehards are probably wondering if the so-called Quadrant System is still in play with NET rankings. The NCAA still utilizes the Quadrant System for March Madness tournament selections and seeding. Essentially, at the end of the season, the NET sorts games into tiers, from Quadrant 1 at the top through Quadrant 4.

The men’s and women’s Quadrant Systems differ slightly in that the men’s uses a weighted system to account for home, neutral site, and road games. The women’s system doesn’t differentiate based on where games are played and simply sorts teams into four quadrants based on NET ranking: Quad 1 (NET 1-25), Quad 2 (NET 26-50), Quad 3 (NET 51-100), and Quad 4 (NET 101+).


Thank you for straightening out my myths and misperceptions. So, Nolan Warren uses the men’s quads for the women’s’ game. quads 1,2, and 3 are relevant. Quad 4 is basically a joke game for a contender. Thank you twice and thrice
 
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...and as a side note for more on the NET here's a Q&A online that might answer some questions.

This is very helpful. Thank you.

For me, the interesting question is the Team Value Index. The Adjusted Net Efficiency makes good sense to me. For the TVI, we get this explanation:

"Team Value Index is the results-oriented component of the NET, ranking more highly those teams that played and beat other good teams, factoring in opponent, location of the game and winner."​

It's a little vague, and I get that there's an AI at work behind it making it too complicated to lay out a simple algorithm. What I wonder is why the TVI doesn't simply consist of the NET of the opponents. Perhaps there's a sort of logic loop [?] implied in this which makes it undesirable. In any event, the focus on efficiency in the ANE seems like a better approach than merely assessing W-L and MoV.
 
I’m not understanding why the point total is of importance. There is nothing a team can do to “catch up” but keep winning, which is every team’s goal.

My point is that NET is more important than any poll because the polls aren’t used in seeding for the tour. But NET is only one criterion; UConn’s overall strength of schedule and performance in conference play may end up being more valuable
Huskynan, If you've ever watched auto racing, toward the end of a race the announcer will provide the lap times of the 2 lead cars.
For instance the announcer will say car A is 10 seconds ahead with 7 laps to go, & car B is running laps 2 seconds faster than car A.
This reveals that car B could possibly catch up to car A in 5 laps with 2 more laps to go after that.
Then it's up to the drivers & the traffic on the track to see which car willl win.
But at least the viewer is being informed in advance that it's mathematically possible for car B to catch up to car A if there aren't any crashes.
It can signal that the ending is worth watching & will be exciting.
If the viewer is kept in the dark about the lap times then they can lose interest in the outcome which isn't good for the TV ratings & advertisers.
The NET is leaving out information that could show emerging trends regarding how solid of a lead that UConn has on its #4 NET ranking relative to other teams close to them in the rankings.
It could generate more interest by letting fans see the daily fluctuations in a team's actual NET score vis-a-vis opposing teams scores instead of simply seeing their rankings.
 
Just looking at the bullet points on that, at least we have no bad losses and were competitive in the three losses (by 11, 11, and 12 points). Hopefully we can be perfect in conference. Wins against ND and South Carolina + a Big East title locks up a #1 seed IMO even if there are a bunch of other P5 teams with less losses.
“Competitive in losses” is obviously a relative concept, but it's a stretch to say we were competitive in those games. We were quite thoroughly outplayed in all three, more so than what the final scores would indicate.

While we've beaten several NET top 50 teams, what UConn's resume is most lacking is high-quality wins. Our only win over a NET top 25 team is Louisville. The Notre Dame game looms large for our resume.

A win at South Carolina? Hope springs eternal, I suppose.
 
We were quite thoroughly outplayed in all three, more so than what the final scores would indicate.
I think that's clearly true. But does the NET algorithm distinguish this? I haven't looked at any efficiency numbers for those games, so I'm curious if that would reveal the lopsided character of those games for the algorithm.
 
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