If Rutgers and Louisville go to the Big12 it absolutely causes the the basketball onlies to split from the Big East. In that scenario, I see the Mountain West reforming with Boise State and San Diego State leaving as football onlies and we would be looking at: UConn, Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston, Temple, Memphis, SMU in an all sports conference. I don't see how UConn ever recovers from that.
If the Big12 expands by 4 teams, Louisville and Rutgers are a given. It would be between UConn, USF and Cincy I would have to imagine.