New Haven Post Game Thread | Page 14 | The Boneyard

New Haven Post Game Thread

One thing I’m struggling with is the constant comparisons to our last two championship teams - “they don’t have the same fire,” “Demary is the new Newton,” “Reibe is the new DC,” “we don’t have a Cam,” “we don’t have an Ajax,” etc. I understand the urge to try to compare to those teams of the past but out of respect to this group, and the unique teams of the past, can we ease up a bit. I feel like even the coaching staff does this. This year’s team is this year’s team. We can think about and honor the past but we can’t be trying to replicate it. Our next championship team, whenever it is, will look and feel different and will take a different path. Let’s accept that.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
It was a bad game. Period. We got up 28-15 and then basically played them even for over 20 minutes until 70-55 and then we closed on a 9-0 run. Against a team making their DI debut.

But let's see how we've done in our first cupcake game the last several years and how it boded:

2025: 92-56 over Sacred Heart. Bad D in the first half maybe portended season-long issues.
2024: 95-52 over NAU. Consistent, pretty dominant.
2023: 85-54 over Stonehill. D was stout early, offense so-so.
2022: 99-48 over CCSU. High-flying and dominant, actually masked season-long issues on offense.
2021: 102-75 over CCSU. Misleadingly explosive on offense and mediocre on defense.
2020: 89-67 over Sacred Heart. Disconcertingly close at halftime portended slow start to the year, but the team developed immensely.
2019: 80-70 over Morehead State. Bad game by a bad team.
2018: 70-58 over Colgate. Bad game by a bad team.
2017: 58-67 loss to Wagner. Say no more.
2016: 100-56 over Maine. So-so first half, pulled away early 2nd. Maybe emblematic of some inconsistency.
2015: 66-53 over Bryant. Bad game by a mediocre team.

So, of those 11 examples, there are several cases -- though mostly among teams that were much worse than this one -- of a bad start being representative of the team's performance. There are also a few where the game wasn't representative, though mostly, but not always, in the direction of the team being worse than implied. There's also one case of a team developing over the year. And, of course, missing 1-2 starters is a factor.

We shouldn't dismiss some obvious warning signs, but full-blown panic is unwarranted.
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we miss 2 starters in many of those?
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
Do you realize how insane you sound posting this on November 4th after a game against New Haven that was never actually competitive?
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I knew people would react viscerally. I don’t think my take is that crazy. Winning a title is so insanely hard. I don’t see the talent level necessary to do so. It is simple as that.

There are loads of teams that we all immediately know are not good enough to win it all. Just because I support UConn doesn’t mean I have to blindly believe they are good enough to climb the mountaintop. I will still go to the games and cheer them on. They are still capable of having a great season.
 
Shabazzkets said:
I knew people would react viscerally. I don’t think my take is that crazy. Winning a title is so insanely hard. I don’t see the talent level necessary to do so. It is simple as that.

There are loads of teams that we all immediately know are not good enough to win it all. Just because I support UConn doesn’t mean I have to blindly believe they are good enough to climb the mountaintop. I will still go to the games and cheer them on. They are still capable of having a great season.
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Just a little early on that with two guys out. Emphasis on "could" - but Reed could be as dominant a post scorer as there is in the country and Mullins could be as much of a "don't give him a good look" guy as there is in the country. They weren’t out there. If it plays out that way, that's a lot of headaches for a defense to worry about.

In terms of talent level compared to our 2023 team:

Demary - Junior year Newton
Ball - Hawkins
Mullins - AJ
Senior Karaban - Freshman Karaban
Reed - Sanogo

Mullins and Jackson are wildly different players we can't compare yet, especially until we see Mullins up and running. Reed has to take a leap to get on Sanogo's level - but it's possible. Demary and Newton are comparable. I think Ball is a slight upgrade on Hawkins (mainly due to an extra year) and Karaban is hopefully an upgrade on himself.

There's the cohesion and chemistry element of things - and of course an element of randomness in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Shabazzkets said:
I knew people would react viscerally. I don’t think my take is that crazy. Winning a title is so insanely hard. I don’t see the talent level necessary to do so. It is simple as that.

There are loads of teams that we all immediately know are not good enough to win it all. Just because I support UConn doesn’t mean I have to blindly believe they are good enough to climb the mountaintop. I will still go to the games and cheer them on. They are still capable of having a great season.
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It would be insane to draw that conclusion based on a game at full strength against New Haven. It is even more insane to draw that conclusion minus 2 starters
 
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Shabazzkets said:
I knew people would react viscerally. I don’t think my take is that crazy. Winning a title is so insanely hard. I don’t see the talent level necessary to do so. It is simple as that.

There are loads of teams that we all immediately know are not good enough to win it all. Just because I support UConn doesn’t mean I have to blindly believe they are good enough to climb the mountaintop. I will still go to the games and cheer them on. They are still capable of having a great season.
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Counterpoint: I do think it’s crazy to draw that conclusion and state definitively on November 4 that their ceiling is capped after a game in which arguably their most important player wasn’t playing. The fact that you wouldn’t be saying this if they won by 35 instead of 25, too, is crazy.

Shame on me for continuing to be surprised by some of the takes on this board but people actually saying other programs made “statements” by beating random directional schools by a larger margin is truly mind-boggling.
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
Counterpoint: I do think it’s crazy to draw that conclusion and state definitively on November 4 that their ceiling is capped after a game in which arguably their most important player wasn’t playing. The fact that you wouldn’t be saying this if they won by 35 instead of 25, too, is crazy.

Shame on me for continuing to be surprised by some of the takes on this board but people actually saying other programs made “statements” by beating random directional schools by a larger margin is truly mind-boggling.
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But what you’re missing is that my evaluation is not based solely on 40 minutes against New Haven. It is based on problems I identified last year in returning players. For example, Stewart and Ball are not elite defensive players. Reed is not an eraser like Clingan was. Reed also tends to get in foul trouble, and we do not have a backup proven at this level. The offense still stagnates more than it ever did in our last championship season (I admit this could change with Mullins, Reed, and a more integrated Demary).

Again, I think UConn will be a good team this year. I just am not seeing a top 3, national title contender. Hope I’m wrong.
 
Shabazzkets said:
But what you’re missing is that my evaluation is not based solely on 40 minutes against New Haven. It is based on problems I identified last year in returning players. For example, Stewart and Ball are not elite defensive players. Reed is not an eraser like Clingan was. Reed also tends to get in foul trouble, and we do not have a backup proven at this level. The offense still stagnates more than it ever did in our last championship season (I admit this could change with Mullins, Reed, and a more integrated Demary).

Again, I think UConn will be a good team this year. I just am not seeing a top 3, national title contender. Hope I’m wrong.
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Folks are simply noting you don't have sufficient information to make any evaluation. Perhaps, you are the one missing the point.

You have no idea how Solo or Steward will perform this year. That "assessment" doesn't even rise to the level of speculation. And considering you still haven't even seen Reed play one minute this year, that assessment is sheer fantasy. The observation that the offense is more stagnate is more of the same.

I know this board is built to express opinions. But opinions are validated by evidence and support points. It won't be until after BYU that we have some notion what we have this year. And, that will just be a starting point as January of 2023 proved.
 
While watching the game I felt like the frequent lineup changes were as disruptive as anything else. I trust that Dan was trying to get as many looks at as many potential combinations as he could. From the play by play I came up with 14 different lineups:

1762443767806.png
 
Excalibur said:
So you would have been questioning K’s future when he didn’t make it out of the first weekend for three years after Grant Hill graduated?
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You probably don’t remember but people wanted to replace Jim Calhoun with Tom Penders at one point. Said he couldn’t win the big one. As for K, there wasn’t really anyone to compare him to except Wooden and he wasn’t going to do that. I haven’t made any judgement on Hurley. My comment was in response to somebody’s post that in effect he lucked out with a group of players that made him look better than he is. My view is that it’s too early to judge. If he ends his career with 2 titles, back to back, that will be a great accomplishment and he’ll be viewed as a very good coach. But he will be one of the best ever if he comes back and wins a couple more over the next decade or two. Of the last 2 guys who won back to back, one is among the best ever. The other is very good.
 
Tmac4468 said:
While watching the game I felt like the frequent lineup changes were as disruptive as anything else. I trust that Dan was trying to get as many looks at as many potential combinations as he could. From the play by play I came up with 14 different lineups:

View attachment 112989
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Where do you get this breakdown from?
 
Tmac4468 said:
While watching the game I felt like the frequent lineup changes were as disruptive as anything else. I trust that Dan was trying to get as many looks at as many potential combinations as he could. From the play by play I came up with 14 different lineups:

View attachment 112989
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Uh-Oh. Four of the 5 best "+" rotations for the game had Ross (and Koroma) in them. I thought Ross regressed in this game based on the BY expert's analyses...

Do we see a Demary/Smith - Karaban - Ball - Ross - Koroma starting lineup on Friday???





(this is, of course, a bit tongue-in-cheek, but there is at least some food for thought/discussion)
 
JustbrewitMan said:
Uh-Oh. Four of the 5 best "+" rotations for the game had Ross (and Koroma) in them. I thought Ross regressed in this game based on the BY expert's analyses...

Do we see a Demary/Smith - Karaban - Ball - Ross - Koroma starting lineup on Friday???





(this is, of course, a bit tongue-in-cheek, but there is at least some food for thought/discussion)
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Regressed on offense, defensive impact was high.
 
Tmac4468 said:
While watching the game I felt like the frequent lineup changes were as disruptive as anything else. I trust that Dan was trying to get as many looks at as many potential combinations as he could. From the play by play I came up with 14 different lineups:

View attachment 112989
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Thanks for posting. Great information for how different lineups performed. Did you create this?

I rewatched the first half of the game. I watched closely all scoring plays by both teams. Almost all of UNH's scoring plays were properly contested by a UConn player. They just made an inordinate number of difficult shots. UConn on the other hand missed many of their uncontested shots including five uncontested layups. UNH's incredible ability to make difficult shots and UConn's inability to complete a high percentage of makable shots was the more salient problem at least in the first half.

The net +/- shows which lineups were the most effective. The lineup of Demary, Ball, Karaban, Ross and Koroma had the best plus minus at 9. I did some quick additions and of the players with double digit minutes Ross led all players +/- with 21. Ball and Karaban followed with 19 each. Demary had 17, Koroma 16, Stewart 12, Smith 6 and Reibe 4.

It's too small a sample size but in this and the Boston game Ross was UConn's most successful player in his minutes on the court. He didn't score well in both games but he might be doing enough of something to help the group he plays with play better. TBD.
 
auror said:
Regressed on offense, defensive impact was high.
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To be fair, he took open shots that he should take when they were presented to him in the flow of the offense. He didn't force any dumb shots. I rewatched the game yesterday; most of the offensive sets he was in he started he set up in the corner, moved around, got the ball and had nothing available but a pass option, and/or never got the ball before someone else shot.

He took three open 3's, two looked good and didn't fall, one looked good, hit nothing but net, but got negated by a Reibe moving screen.

Of course, he had the steal/breakaway dunk, which was nice.
 
aboogieee said:
I'm just upset Ross didn’t recognize the situation and cut here.

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Yea, his defender sagged off him to go cover the driving Smith. Cutting could have definitely been an option. Though, I'm sure he's instructed to consider staying in the corner for a wide open 3 attempt there. Malachi had a legit makeable reverse layup that he missed, but he also could have kicked it out to Ross for the wide-open 3.
 
ctchamps said:
Thanks for posting. Great information for how different lineups performed. Did you create this?

I rewatched the first half of the game. I watched closely all scoring plays by both teams. Almost all of UNH's scoring plays were properly contested by a UConn player. They just made an inordinate number of difficult shots. UConn on the other hand missed many of their uncontested shots including five uncontested layups. UNH's incredible ability to make difficult shots and UConn's inability to complete a high percentage of makable shots was the more salient problem at least in the first half.

The net +/- shows which lineups were the most effective. The lineup of Demary, Ball, Karaban, Ross and Koroma had the best plus minus at 9. I did some quick additions and of the players with double digit minutes Ross led all players +/- with 21. Ball and Karaban followed with 19 each. Demary had 17, Koroma 16, Stewart 12, Smith 6 and Reibe 4.

It's too small a sample size but in this and the Boston game Ross was UConn's most successful player in his minutes on the court. He didn't score well in both games but he might be doing enough of something to help the group he plays with play better. TBD.
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Our most effective attempts at 3/4-court and halfcourt press/traps were with Ross and Koroma involved.
 
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