New Haven Post Game Thread

[Tmac4468]

Where do you get this breakdown from?

Went through the play by play script of the game, noting the substitutions and the time clock when they took place. Then looked at the score change during the time each lineup was playing...

 

[Tmac4468]

OT-ish, but same exercise for BC... Feels like Coach is working hard in the lab. Get everyone back with some experience with lineups and we'll likely look much better.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

He doesn’t play or move like he wants the ball. Going back to confidence, again.

Someone who wants the ball makes the cut because he sees the chance to score.

Watch that play. Both options are fine. Staying behind the 3pt line for a wide open kickout 3ball, or cutting towards the hoop. Thing is, cutting makes him trail his defender and may actually help the D. Yea he could get a 6-8ft baseline jumper, or maybe get a pass and take it to the tin, but he’d be driving into 2 defenders in position. This particular play shown has nothing to do with desire to want the ball. He’s in position for a shot I’m sure he’s very comfortable with.

 

[Arod18]

View attachment 112996

Hope so but I didn’t see it last yr

 

[AllHusky]

Watch that play. Both options are fine. Staying behind the 3pt line for a wide open kickout 3ball, or cutting towards the hoop. Thing is, cutting makes him trail his defender and may actually help the D. Yea he could get a 6-8ft baseline jumper, or maybe get a pass and take it to the tin, but he’d be driving into 2 defenders in position. This particular play shown has nothing to do with desire to want the ball. He’s in position for a shot I’m sure he’s very comfortable with.

Looking at his 3's, he's got a decent stroke, but maybe a hair rushed. Karaban really sets up nice before he shoots when he is wide open. Again, it's as though Ross isn't expecting success.

 

[HW611]

Watch that play. Both options are fine. Staying behind the 3pt line for a wide open kickout 3ball, or cutting towards the hoop. Thing is, cutting makes him trail his defender and may actually help the D. Yea he could get a 6-8ft baseline jumper, or maybe get a pass and take it to the tin, but he’d be driving into 2 defenders in position. This particular play shown has nothing to do with desire to want the ball. He’s in position for a shot I’m sure he’s very comfortable with.

To me, he could’ve cut and got the ball for an easy dunk here. His defender completely turned his back and committed to Malachi. If he cuts with his hands up it’s a dunk or a foul.

When it comes to settling for a 3 that he’s struggling with or going to get that easy shot at the rim he has to make that cut there.

 

[alphasigko]

He doesn’t play or move like he wants the ball. Going back to confidence, again.

Someone who wants the ball makes the cut because he sees the chance to score.

Perhaps you are finally seeing what we have been seeing?

 

[HW611]

Perhaps you are finally seeing what we have been seeing?

I’ve always said he had a confidence issue, not talent issue.

Where we disagree is if it’s fixable or not.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I’ve always said he had a confidence issue, not talent issue.

Where we disagree is if it’s fixable or not.

Other than his first attempt of the year, I’ve seen no issue with his confidence taking good-look 3’s this year. And they have all been nice-looking shots. He should (and is) firing away when he has the right looks.

I’m here selling cheap tickets to the JRoss train. It’s gonna be an enjoyable ride this year.

 

[HW611]

Other than his first attempt of the year, I’ve seen no issue with his confidence taking good-look 3’s this year. And they have all been nice-looking shots. He should (and is) firing away when he has the right looks.

I’m here selling cheap tickets to the JRoss train. It’s gonna be an enjoyable ride this year.

I’m on the train with ya. Even more interesting to see most of our best lineups involve him in it.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Even more interesting to see most of our best lineups involve him in it.

I don’t know where you’re getting this and the last thing I’m going to do is get in a useless back and forth with you but that EvanMiya cat who does the analytics heavy college basketball stuff doesn’t have Ross in any of our five best lineups. I’m not saying he’s infallible and you’re definitely the smartest, most rational guy on this board but it seems like a bit of hyperbole to say “most of our best lineups” include J Ross.

 

[HW611]

I don’t know where you’re getting this and the last thing I’m going to do is get in a useless back and forth with you but that EvanMiya cat who does the analytics heavy college basketball stuff doesn’t have Ross in any of our five best lineups. I’m not saying he’s infallible and you’re definitely the smartest, most rational guy on this board but it seems like a bit of hyperbole to say “most of our best lineups” include J Ross.

The poster T Mac has been posting the info with our best lineups against BC and NHU. Check that out.

 

[auror]

OT-ish, but same exercise for BC... Feels like Coach is working hard in the lab. Get everyone back with some experience with lineups and we'll likely look much better.

View attachment 113001

To save you some trouble, you can find all this information going forward on Hoop-Explorer for free (except the exhibitions, so good work here).

 

[AllHusky]

Looked at game for first time. Reibe is a big puppy out there, but love what I see. Not a matter of if, but when for him. It'll be fun watching him to develop(quickly we hope!!). Stewart and Ross will get there this year, just a question of how far can their talent take them? They will become consistent and play confidently within the system. Overall, we looked a little soft

 

[ctchamps]

I don’t know where you’re getting this and the last thing I’m going to do is get in a useless back and forth with you but that EvanMiya cat who does the analytics heavy college basketball stuff doesn’t have Ross in any of our five best lineups. I’m not saying he’s infallible and you’re definitely the smartest, most rational guy on this board but it seems like a bit of hyperbole to say “most of our best lineups” include J Ross.

This is a good point. And yet the +/- for the team is much better when Ross is on the court as shown in the two spreadsheets posted on this page.

@auror you have pointed out that Ross's defense is the reason for the +/- improvement the team has when he's on the court. My question to you auror does any of the analytics factor in how players perform when they are taking the role of setting up plays on the offensive end. For example in the Brian Kervick review of the New Haven game on Storrs Central he has a feature "Set of the Week". He wrote this:

The set of the week features Solo cutting through, a decoy DHO at top, a back screen for Karaban, followed by Solo running off staggered screens for an open three.

In that play Ross is doing the back screen for Karaban. He then leaves that player and sets up the staggered screen for Ball while directing Koroma to set up the second staggered screen. This frees up Ball as he circles to the top of the key. Ball misses the shot but gets fouled and makes his three foul shots. So I'm sure Evan gives Ball full credit in his offensive metrics but does his analytics give Ross and Koroma any offensive value in this play?

Part of the problem for Ross on offense is his hesitation taking shots or driving to the basket. But how much of this is a factor of the coaches prioritizing other players over him on the offensive end versus a confidence issue? When a player is told he is option 4 or 5 it has to impact how he plays.

 

[auror]

This is a good point. And yet the +/- for the team is much better when Ross is on the court as shown in the two spreadsheets posted on this page.

@auror you have pointed out that Ross's defense is the reason for the +/- improvement the team has when he's on the court. My question to you auror does any of the analytics factor in how players perform when they are taking the role of setting up plays on the offensive end. For example in the Brian Kervick review of the New Haven game on Storrs Central he has a feature "Set of the Week". He wrote this:

The set of the week features Solo cutting through, a decoy DHO at top, a back screen for Karaban, followed by Solo running off staggered screens for an open three.

In that play Ross is doing the back screen for Karaban. He then leaves that player and sets up the staggered screen for Ball while directing Koroma to set up the second staggered screen. This frees up Ball as he circles to the top of the key. Ball misses the shot but gets fouled and makes his three foul shots. So I'm sure Evan gives Ball full credit in his offensive metrics but does his analytics give Ross and Koroma any offensive value in this play?

Part of the problem for Ross on offense is his hesitation taking shots or driving to the basket. But how much of this is a factor of the coaches prioritizing other players over him on the offensive end versus a confidence issue? When a player is told he is option 4 or 5 it has to impact how he plays.

This is where plus/minus metrics come in, and yes they are part of EvanMiya's BPR (and lineup net ratings). As they are based on changes in the score, anything you do to help the team score will have an impact. However, there are 100 decisions and actions made on each play, so did he help the team that much with the screen? Would it have been different with a different guy doing it? You need pretty large samples before something like that becomes predictive.

But I know the coaches track that stuff, they call them screen assists.

 

[gsmooth]

This is where plus/minus metrics come in, and yes they are part of EvanMiya's BPR (and lineup net ratings). As they are based on changes in the score, anything you do to help the team score will have an impact. However, there are 100 decisions and actions made on each play, so did he help the team that much with the screen? Would it have been different with a different guy doing it? You need pretty large samples before something like that becomes predictive.

But I know the coaches track that stuff, they call them screen assists.

You use Hoops Explorer. What other analytics sites do you use for basketball and which ones you pay for?

 

[navery12]

I would recommend using this site to actually find our best lineups and not just using a blind highly flawed stat like plus/minus

https://hoop-explorer.com/LineupAnalyzer?baseQuery=&filter=&gender=Men&maxRank=400&maxTableSize=50&minPoss=5&minRank=0&sortBy=desc%3Aoff_poss&team=UConn&year=2025%2F26&

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I would recommend using this site to actually find our best lineups and not just using a blind highly flawed stat like plus/minus

https://hoop-explorer.com/LineupAnalyzer?baseQuery=&filter=&gender=Men&maxRank=400&maxTableSize=50&minPoss=5&minRank=0&sortBy=desc%3Aoff_poss&team=UConn&year=2025%2F26&

Agree its a great site with more granular/relevant metrics than simple box +/-. but even the more fancy metrics commonly used don't tell the whole story for player performance/value.

Which is why every high-level program has video folks to dissect and chop up game film to add the qualitative analysis of player performance to the quantitative metrics

(I know you know this, just discussing for the thread).

For example, for the 1-game sample (and for the aggregate as the season progresses), you can look at the On-Off performance for the entire team for 1,2, etc players in the lineup. You can start to glean some observations for important offensive and defensive metrics while the player(s) are on/off the court. Again, some of the items may/may not be directly due to the player, but it's more rich data than box +/-...

So here's the NH game for Ross On/Off:

With all of the caveats and warnings of a 1-game sample size:

• The offense was very efficient overall whether he was on or off the court.
• The defense was dramatically better (look at Adjusted P/100 possessions. 59.6 when on, 147.6 when he was off).
• TO% for the defense was 23% of possessions (higher and good), for the offense it was 20.5% (higher and not so good). Again, it doesn't mean he was the sole reason for either of those, but then you can drill down into specific lineups.
• Likewise, the opponent shooting % was very low (good) at all areas of the court

It's a fun site to play around with!

 

[JustbrewitMan]

To me, he could’ve cut and got the ball for an easy dunk here. His defender completely turned his back and committed to Malachi. If he cuts with his hands up it’s a dunk or a foul.

When it comes to settling for a 3 that he’s struggling with or going to get that easy shot at the rim he has to make that cut there.

View attachment 113019

Tough to really say he's "struggling" from 3 on a literal 4 shot in-game sample size this year up to the point of the play being discussed. He went 0-1 in the BC game, 2-3 in the MSU game. One could argue he is actually "hot" because he was shooting 50% up to the NH game.

If you really want to get into the weeds, hanging out in the corner for a wide open 3 is as good/potentially better shot analytically than driving for a possible feed for a possible layup/dunk.

Corner 3's are often some of the more higher-% 3's for players, and there are analytics to show that the offense is more likely to get a rebound from a corner 3 than 3's taken in other zones.

Just sayin'

 

[auror]

You use Hoops Explorer. What other analytics sites do you use for basketball and which ones you pay for?

I usually pay for KenPom and EvanMiya. And The Burner discord/Basket Under Review. Use Torvik and Hoop-Explorer for free. Mess around with CBB Analytics (you can pick UConn as a free team to get some stuff). The NCAA website for NET. Massey Composite has a composite analytic ranking. Shot Quality I look at from time to time, but I don't think it's accurate enough to be worth the cost.

Hoop-Explorer has the best data and is free, but the interface is challenging. I've been using it for a few years so I have a decent handle on it, but it can be like learning Excel or HTML for the first time to do some of the more advanced things.

EvanMiya has the most accurate metrics, I believe. BPR and the relative team rankings are my gold standard. I pay for it mainly to help with betting, some of the better features are an even higher paywall, but I can get most of that stuff for free on Hoop-Explorer. Hoop-Explorer's luck-adjusted RAPM is my 2nd favorite player metric. KenPom is obviously still good for ranking teams. I'd probably give up my sub but I get it for free right now and I just go there by reflex to look up schedules and results. Torvik has good and easy sorting tools for teams and good comps for players. CBB Analytics and Hoop-Explorer have shot charts.

I'd kill for a Synergy account, but not in the cards.

 

[HW611]

Tough to really say he's "struggling" from 3 on a literal 4 shot in-game sample size this year up to the point of the play being discussed. He went 0-1 in the BC game, 2-3 in the MSU game. One could argue he is actually "hot" because he was shooting 50% up to the NH game.

If you really want to get into the weeds, hanging out in the corner for a wide open 3 is as good/potentially better shot analytically than driving for a possible feed for a possible layup/dunk.

Corner 3's are often some of the more higher-% 3's for players, and there are analytics to show that the offense is more likely to get a rebound from a corner 3 than 3's taken in other zones.

Just sayin'

Yeah this is where I get off the analytics train when it tries to say a 3 pointer is better than an open layup/dunk.

Thats where the math will never make sense for me. At the end of the day it’s a shot the average player has a 30-35% chance of making vs a shot that gets to the 60s at minimum. Where theres also the added factor of potentially drawing a foul and getting your opponent in foul trouble.

A whole other element of the game that I’m not sure these numbers factor in. Being able to get an opponent in foul trouble or getting to the double bonus is valuable.

 

[auror]

Yeah this is where I get off the analytics train when it tries to say a 3 pointer is better than an open layup/dunk.

Thats where the math will never make sense for me. At the end of the day it’s a shot the average player has a 30-35% chance of making vs a shot that gets to the 60s at minimum. Where theres also the added factor of potentially drawing a foul and getting your opponent in foul trouble.

A whole other element of the game that I’m not sure these numbers factor in. Being able to get an opponent in foul trouble or getting to the double bonus is valuable.

You guys are talking about two slightly different scenarios.

That math will never support a 3 pointer over an open layup or dunk. You'd have to shoot 60% from 3, which seems to be above the margin of human hand-eye skill for in-game situations.

Justbrewitman was getting into hypotheticals about the likelihood of the layup being contested and the opportunity cost of abandoning an uncontested 3pt shot (though the guy covering 2 as help would rotate over and I'm guessing what would actually happen is Ross kicks to an open Solo 3). That certainly gets a little murkier, and yeah adding in potentially earning a foul or getting an offensive rebound if Smith doesn't pass makes it a very complex discussion.

 

[navery12]

Yeah this is where I get off the analytics train when it tries to say a 3 pointer is better than an open layup/dunk.

I don't know what analytics you're looking at, but they certainly don't say that

 

[JustbrewitMan]

You guys are talking about two slightly different scenarios.

That math will never support a 3 pointer over an open layup or dunk. You'd have to shoot 60% from 3, which seems to be above the margin of human hand-eye skill for in-game situations.

Justbrewitman was getting into hypotheticals about the likelihood of the layup being contested and the opportunity cost of abandoning an uncontested 3pt shot (though the guy covering 2 as help would rotate over and I'm guessing what would actually happen is Ross kicks to an open Solo 3). That certainly gets a little murkier, and yeah adding in potentially earning a foul or getting an offensive rebound if Smith doesn't pass makes it a very complex discussion.

Yep, that was my point. While the lane was open, there's no guarantee that the play would evolve as:

• Smith delivers a perfect dish to a cutting Ross
• Ross handles the pass, drives the lane and takes either a layup or dunk
• NH defense lets him do this with no contest of the shot
• Ross makes the shot

Although we'll never know exactly what was going through Ross's head on the play we're discussing (unless someone has insider access), it wouldn't surprise me if the play involves a stay/drive decision by the corner guy when his defender abandons him. With the option for the dribble-driver to make a decision based on what happens as he gets to the lane. A driving PG getting into the lane, drawing defenders, and then making a kickout pass on the baseline to a wide-open corner 3 is a pretty standard occurance in most modern offenses. HW611, you were trying to attribute Ross staying behind the arc as some kind of hesitation/indecision. Not sure any of us can make really make a definitive conclusion, though. Thus the fun banter.