Lunardi seems to indicate that UConn's chance of MSG for the regional is going to be heavily based on how UConn finishes season but also what happens in the Big 12.
The rule is if you face a team 3 times during the season you can't face them until the Elite Eight. If you face a team 2 times during the season you can't face them until the Sweet Sixteen.
So taking that into account, assuming the 6 really good teams at the top of the Big 12 are going to face each other a 3rd time in some cases in the Big 12 tournament., meaning let's say Kansas as a 1 seed cannot have a Big 12 team be a 4 or a 5 in their region so they would have to go somewhere outside the Midwest. At the same time take a Iowa State that is right around a 4 seed today cannot face Kansas State or Texas or Baylor or Kansas or TCU until the Sweet Sixteen or later.
This is a long winded way of saying it's going to get crowded in the Midwest, West and South regionals. Today, the schools that most conflict with UConn being a 4 or 5 in the West are Iowa State and TCU.
What I take from all of this is we need those schools to drop out a bit to more 6 seed or later so as to not interfere with UConn's placement while UConn needs to finish strong and secure a 4 seed or better and ensure placement in Albany at a minimum.
Might be other solutions to takeaway from this, but that's the easiest path to Albany / MSG: win and root against ISU, TCU and even Kansas State to an extent. ISU has lost 4 of their last 5, Kansas State has lost 3 of their last 4, and TCU has lost 4 of their last 5. All with worse NET and KP than UConn; all getting destroyed by their own conference. One of whom already lost head to head v UConn.
Another thing UConn has going for it as Lunardi notes is UConn is the only good team in the northeast. So the Big 12 (and UConn itself) are the only impediments.
Feel free to poke holes in this logic since I do not know all the intricacies of bracketology.