NET Rankings - UConn vs Gonzaga

[RuffRuff]

Can someone please explain to me how Gonzaga is ranked higher? Very simply. I'm not sure where in their resume they statistically stack better than us. They seem to pull this every year and I'm not clear on the why - there has to be something broken in this system. They are in the WCC and their best wins are against Bama, UK and UCLA.

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[Doctor Hoop]

I'm going to need an explanation for Illinois and Iowa St. while you're at it, looking at the Quad 1/Quad 2 results.

 

[Hi-Low]

It's a sad day when a road win at Creighton (76) is a Quad 2 game. The BE is just dreadful this year.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Yeah I’ll never understand it. Like you said it happens every year. I also think the WCC gets more credit than it should. It’s a cute little conference but no clue how St. Mary’s is 32 in the NET, haven’t really beaten anyone except an average Va Tech. Santa Clara at 43 is crazy to me too but I’m not a metrics guy so I’ll leave it to the super computers.

 

[RuffRuff]

I'm going to need an explanation for Illinois and Iowa St. while you're at it, looking at the Quad 1/Quad 2 results.

Right? We are 13-1 in Quad 1 and 2 vs their 8-1. Someone please make sense of this for me. Clearly the calcs go beyond what we see in these tables.

 

[Kitaman]

Isn't this the definition of a 'paper tiger'?

Just saying any Gonzaga fan will confirm that their team is better than ours.

 

[FightOnCT]

NET isn’t important for ranking us, it’s only matters when it comes to the teams you play. So Creighton’s NET matters more to us than our own because it determines how good our win over them was.

NET usually does follow most predictive metrics though, and Gonzaga was KenPom #1 for a bit in the beginning of the season until the loss to Michigan (who is so good that Zags didn’t move too far back). They’ve also blown out teams more often while we have a terrible record ATS this year.

Doesn’t matter though since not only are we ranked higher seed-wise, but we already know what happens when we play higher rated teams like Illinois and Florida

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[HooperScooper]

Creighton was a monster win?

 

[caw]

NET isn’t important for ranking us, it’s only matters when it comes to the teams you play. So Creighton’s NET matters more to us than our own because it determines how good our win over them was.

NET usually does follow most predictive metrics though, and Gonzaga was KenPom #1 for a bit in the beginning of the season until the loss to Michigan (who is so good that Zags didn’t move too far back). They’ve also blown out teams more often while we have a terrible record ATS this year.

Doesn’t matter though since not only are we ranked higher seed-wise, but we already know what happens when we play higher rated teams like Illinois and Florida

To add to this, from the NCAA website:

"The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses."

 

[RuffRuff]

To add to this, from the NCAA website:

"The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses."

Seems that the only thing included here that isn't in the table is winning spreads.

 

[alexd]

Remember when we thought Texas would be a good home win? They're 12-9 now.

 

[Lafayette]

Gonzaga is 5-1 vs ranked with huge scoring wins against #18 UK (by 35), and #23 Creighton (by 27)

They beat #25 UCLA (by 10) and #8 Alabama (by 10):

One loss to Michigan

The WCC is worse than the Big East as no one is ranked besides Zaga.

Thing is they have quite a few wins <5 pts to mediocre teams.

In a way we are similar but smh why with more Q1 big wins we are 21-1 like them but similarly ranked.

We play St Johns 2x and Villanova still so we have more opportunities that they do.

 

[RuffRuff]

Gonzaga is 5-1 vs ranked with huge scoring wins against #18 UK (by 35), and #23 Creighton (by 27)

They beat #25 UCLA (by 10) and #8 Alabama (by 10):

One loss to Michigan

The WCC is worse than the Big East as no one is ranked besides Zaga.

Thing is they have quite a few wins <5 pts to mediocre teams.

In a way we are similar but smh why with more Q1 big wins we are 21-1 like them but similarly ranked.

We play St Johns 2x and Villanova still so we have more opportunities that they do.

We have wins @Kansas, Illinois, Florida & BYU which are better than any one of their wins. Our loss is much better than their one thumping. They play in the WCC. Their NET being better makes zero sense. And somehow Few seems to work these metrics annually.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Creighton was a monster win?

The thing monster about it was the margin of victory, but yeah.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Remember when we thought Texas would be a good home win? They're 12-9 now.

Fortunately, BYU, Illinois, Florida, and Kansas have mostly maintained their expected level. The Arizona loss obviously looks understandable in retrospect.

We've had issues in some years with our big OOC scalps falling off a cliff and not looking nearly as impressive come March, but by and large that isn't an issue this year. The Big East being a massive disappointment, on the other hand...

 

[superjohn]

As a program Gonzaga went from Cinderella to legit contender to now the most overrated program in the country. They have zero chance of winning it all.

Actually I take that back, St. Mary's is the most overrated program in the country. We always hear about how good they are and they've made one sweet 16 in the past 67 years.

 

[Donyell 360]

Creighton was a monster win?

Yeah they don't belong in the same sentence as the other 3. I guess it was monster in the sense that we beat them by 27. It was huge for our confidence though. Hopefully it proves to be a turning point in the season.

 

[aceboon]

Remember when we thought Texas would be a good home win? They're 12-9 now.

The win looks like what everyone should have expected it to be, they're right on the bubble with a chance to play their way in.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

The win looks like what everyone should have expected it to be, they're right on the bubble with a chance to play their way in.

I've actually been pleasantly surprised by Texas. 3 wins vs likely tournament teams, as well a bad loss to MSST. They have improved by 15 spots on KenPom since we beat them

 

[RuffRuff]

I've actually been pleasantly surprised by Texas. 3 wins vs likely tournament teams, as well a bad loss to MSST. They have improved by 15 spots on KenPom since we beat them

They'd be the 4th highest rated team in the BE at 34.

 

[noelle]

there's a large group of good teams at the top this year so don't really care about rankings. you gotta beat at least 3 good teams to win it

 

[RuffRuff]

there's a large group of good teams at the top this year so don't really care about rankings. you gotta beat at least 3 good teams to win it

Likely 4. All the good teams are consolidated in the top 15-16 teams. 4 seeds will be quality opponents, think Kansas, Vandy, BYU. Then you'll have to beat a 2/3 seed to get to the F4, along with those two games.

 

[JungleLobo]

With Creighton being the best Quad 2 and Columbia now the 2nd to best quad 4 (was quad 3), expecting UConn to slide to #3 in a couple of hours on AP and #4 on Coaches.

 

[aceboon]

I've actually been pleasantly surprised by Texas. 3 wins vs likely tournament teams, as well a bad loss to MSST. They have improved by 15 spots on KenPom since we beat them

Yea if they didn't choke away a home win vs Miss St(they had complete control) they're probably in the field right now