No.
The NET is only one element of the tournament seeding process. And Vegas oddsmakers have no say.
No but it helps. Both that and the betting odds help our chances to sneak in as the last #1 seed IMO. If you assume Texas and UCLA win their conference tournaments, then that means South Carolina, LSU and USC have to lose at least one more time.
I would rather see UConn play Texas or UCLA in the final if at all. The only thing UConn can't do is defend a tall team and both of those teams can put a real big lineup on the floor and both of them have the guard play to offset the press. Best matchup for me is ND and second is USC (mostly because they have the weakest coach) where UConn has played them earlier in the season and should be confident that they would win at full strength.
No, but it does mean they will get the max points that part of the selection process offers. It could mean the difference between being a 1 or a 2, but I really think a lot depends on what happens in the tournaments where UConn has an advantage over all the other teams. I can't see any situation where they lose another game and UCLA and USC could lose two since they play each other to finish the season and would have to win in the tournament too. Texas will at least need to make the final of the SEC to hold a 1 seed and the same is true for LSU or SC where they could jump over UConn..
Exactly.
Don't they impact your résumé negatively?
—UConn is probably #6 overall right now and would only have a chance to move up if someone ahead of them takes a BAD loss (i.e. not to another top 5 team).
The negative impact of a “quality loss” is mostly in the opportunity cost of having missed out on a chance to enhance the resume with a high-quality win. But the committee's been pretty clear that losing to a top team does not cause you to drop below another team that is only beating lesser teams.
Exactly. Vegas odds have nothing to do with potential tournament seedings.
In retrospect, UConn has not played a team with real BIGS this year. Losses to ND, USC and TN, of which the latter 2 were close - all relatively small athletic lineups. Actually the win against SC was a more traditional game with post action allowing Jana to play in the paint where she does relatively well. So, allow me some conjecture here that we just might do better against TX and UCLA than say ND who scares me the most.
The NET doesn't take MOV into account per se, but one of its two components is “adjusted net efficiency” (offensive points per possession minus defensive points per possession, adjusted for opponent strength and game location). So this component does reflect the difference between a dominant win and a narrow one.
BTW This week's #1 NET rating is for the second week in a row. We rose to #1 after the SoCar win.
It’s a difference, yes, but more than offset by the quality of ND’s wins over Texas, USC and UConn. Our best wins after SC are North Carolina and Ole Miss.
