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The only thing that makes the Irish worry is the development of 4 superconferences and no 5th or 6th on a BCS level. Why? Because 4 conferences means they close the door and set up their own 4 or 8 team playoff. Whether or not the Big East survives, if the Big XII survives (meaning it keeps Texas and Oklahoma, because any league with those schools is a major league) then Notre Dame can't be shut out.
The single best development for the Irish, and the worst one for the ACC if it was trying to force the Irish's hand, was the Pac Ten saying we don't see why it's in our interest to go past 12.
I agree with your last point. And it is true that a superconference scenario will cause some heartburn for ND. But I am not sure that the accepted wisdom---ND being forced to join up in the event superconferences arrive--is likely. The BCS enacted special rules for ND before because it was in its interests to do so. The superconferences could make a similar calculation if the doomsday scenario arrives. If it's all about money, why not?
EDIT: whoops. See my point was already made and responded to. Let's just say that I don't think ND will be forced to do anything because I don't think it will ever be left out, not so long as it's printing money for the networks and serving as a deserved or undeserved student-athlete shield for everyone else.