NCAA Tournament Bracketology (NCAA.com)

[yukonfan4]

#64 we're in! lol

 

[Slasher]

What's the weight of the different metrics?

That's difficult to answer in full. I give KenPom a flat weighting that is additive to the overall ranking (or subtractive if you're low enough.) But the NET rating has more weight (and previously the RPI) for just it's ranking in general, but then the quadrant system is based on NET, so that gives it even more weighting, since I have ratings based on q1/q2 wins and q3/q4 losses.

 

[Slasher]

That's difficult to answer in full. I give KenPom a flat weighting that is additive to the overall ranking (or subtractive if you're low enough.) But the NET rating has more weight (and previously the RPI) for just it's ranking in general, but then the quadrant system is based on NET, so that gives it even more weighting, since I have ratings based on q1/q2 wins and q3/q4 losses.

In all, the system is very complicated, but last year it got 67/68 teams correct and all but eight within one seed line. IIRC it got roughly 40 on the correct seed line as well.

 

[auror]

That's difficult to answer in full. I give KenPom a flat weighting that is additive to the overall ranking (or subtractive if you're low enough.) But the NET rating has more weight (and previously the RPI) for just it's ranking in general, but then the quadrant system is based on NET, so that gives it even more weighting, since I have ratings based on q1/q2 wins and q3/q4 losses.

That's about how I'd build it I think. Committee definitely overweights the quadrant wins considering that's all built into RPI/NET.

 

[gtcam]

This thread is perfect timing. I do bracketology every year, and I just updated my completely automated bracketology to switch from using RPI to NET and have uploaded the 12/5 NET rankings, KenPom rankings, and quadrant wins, etc. I'm going to list 1-100 from the rankings. It's not considering who gets in/out based on auto bids or anything like that yet. This is just a ranking based on committee criteria. This is the result so far:

1 Wisconsin B1G
2 Duke ACC
3 Michigan B1G
4 Kansas Big 12
5 Gonzaga WCC
6 Michigan St. B1G
7 Virginia ACC
8 North Carolina ACC
9 Auburn SEC
10 Tennessee SEC
11 Oklahoma Big 12
12 Texas Tech Big 12
13 Nevada MWC
14 Virginia Tech ACC
15 Iowa St. Big 12
16 Ohio St. B1G
17 Florida St. ACC
18 Nebraska B1G
19 Buffalo MAC
20 Arizona Pac-12
21 Purdue B1G
22 Indiana B1G
23 Arizona St. Pac-12
24 North Carolina St. ACC
25 Kentucky SEC
26 Villanova Big East
27 Louisville ACC
28 Mississippi St. SEC
29 Kansas St. Big 12
30 Syracuse ACC
31 Marquette Big East
32 Butler Big East
33 Creighton Big East
34 Texas Big 12
35 Maryland B1G
36 Houston AAC
37 Utah St. MWC
38 Iowa B1G
39 St. John's Big East
40 Florida SEC
41 Cincinnati AAC
42 Arkansas SEC
43 UCLA Pac-12
44 LSU SEC
45 San Francisco WCC
46 Oregon Pac-12
47 Clemson ACC
48 Oklahoma St. Big 12
49 Penn St. B1G
50 Washington Pac-12
51 San Diego St. MWC
52 Notre Dame ACC
53 Colorado Pac-12
54 Belmont OVC
55 Northwestern B1G
56 UNC Greensboro SoCon
57 Xavier Big East
58 Minnesota B1G
59 Mississippi SEC
60 Liberty Big South
61 Wofford SoCon
62 Lipscomb ASUN
63 Saint Louis A-10
64 Connecticut AAC
65 UCF AAC
66 Furman SoCon
67 Dayton A-10
68 Vanderbilt SEC
69 Providence Big East
70 Temple AAC
71 TCU Big 12
72 Oregon St. Pac-12
73 Georgetown Big East
74 Rutgers B1G
75 Seton Hall Big East
76 Saint Mary's WCC
77 Davidson A-10
78 Loyola Marymount WCC
79 Georgia Tech ACC
80 Miami FL ACC
81 San Diego WCC
82 Missouri SEC
83 West Virginia Big 12
84 Stanford Pac-12
85 Fresno St. MWC
86 Ball St. MAC
87 Radford Big South
88 North Texas C-USA
89 DePaul Big East
90 Loyola Chicago MVC
91 Boston College ACC
92 VCU A-10
93 New Mexico St. WAC
94 East Tennessee St. SoCon
95 USC Pac-12
96 Alabama SEC
97 Montana Big Sky
98 Pittsburgh ACC
99 Indiana St. MVC
100 Harvard Ivy

thanks for your update and efforts it amazes me that Cuse is above UConn and Oregon both teams that best them. Just weird

 

[AllAbout5]

Also with my rankings, take into account, KenPom uses some previous season data. So as the KenPom ratings stop using that data, my bracketology will automatically adjust as well. This is really way too early to look at bracketology, I just wanted to get my automated process fixed. I don't usually start doing this until January.

When you mean automatically, you mean it happens on its own without you doing anything?

 

[Slasher]

When you mean automatically, you mean it happens on its own without you doing anything?

Now that my application is fixed, all I have to do is upload the latest KenPom and NET rankings from their respective websites and it spits out my ranking/brackets. So KenPom's own algorithm gradually reduces the use of last year's data until it doesn't use it at all anymore. When that happens, it'll automatically happen in my bracketology as well.

 

[browndog319]

How is a cuse team we beat in and we’re not at this point?

Because 1 game and ACC

 

[AllAbout5]

Now that my application is fixed, all I have to do is upload the latest KenPom and NET rankings from their respective websites and it spits out my ranking/brackets. So KenPom's own algorithm gradually reduces the use of last year's data until it doesn't use it at all anymore. When that happens, it'll automatically happen in my bracketology as well.

What about the lock ins for each conference? also I’d love to know how to do that.

 

[uconnbill]

Because they're cuse and we're not?

You mean UConn4>Cuse1

 

[UconnFanDC]

Right now Houston, Temple, Cincinnati and Tulsa all have quality wins. Our Cuse win will be a discussion since one of their better players did not play. We still have to beat the top AAC teams but we could use the Nova win to begin a good resume.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Right now Houston, Temple, Cincinnati and Tulsa all have quality wins. Our Cuse win will be a discussion since one of their better players did not play. We still have to beat the top AAC teams but we could use the Nova win to begin a good resume.

The committee will not take into account that Howard didn't play when they look at UConn win with Syracuse. I don't know where that idea is coming from.

 

[Iowa3877]

They sure will, there undefeated with him!

 

[Drew]

Teams that are in:

Houston looks good. Really good.

Cincinnati had a really nice win yesterday over Xavier. They play @ Mississippi State on Saturday and vs UCLA (I'll actually be there) at home the 19th. Win those two and they'll be in a great spot.

Temple has a couple of nice wins (@ St Joes, @ Missouri, Georgia, hammered a bad Cal team)

UCF is weird to me. They have wins over Alabama and to a less impressive extent St. Joes, NKU, and WKU. They have no more quality win opportunities left in the non-conference and have a BAD loss to FAU at home. Theyre in the bracket now which is why they're in this section but I think they'll be sweating it out come Selection Sunday

Teams that could make it:

Tulsa has bounced back really nicely from their bad loss to Southern Illinois. They win their last 3 non-conference games (New Orleans, @ Dayton, @ Oral Roberts) and they'll be right there come conference season

UConn has a nice win over Syracuse. I don't want to say the NCAA tournament hopes come down to beating Villanova on the 22nd but its difficult to see us making it without a second quality win OOC

Memphis is probably a long shot but they still play Tennessee next Saturday. They have wins over South Dakota St and Yale. Win vs TN and there is a path for them to make the tournament. Keep in mind the AAC tournament is in Memphis this year.

Teams that need to win the AAC Tournament to get in:

USF
ECU
Tulane
Wichita State
SMU

 

[UconnFanDC]

The committee will not take into account that Howard didn't play when they look at UConn win with Syracuse. I don't know where that idea is coming from.

Not sure how to take your response but its really not an idea as you say. Lol. I'm simply mentioning it's really about how we actually measure up to ranked or P 5 opponents. Right now, the fact is, if turney started today, Cincy, Houston, Temple and Tulsa have better wins.

 

[jibsey]

Right now Houston, Temple, Cincinnati and Tulsa all have quality wins. Our Cuse win will be a discussion since one of their better players did not play. We still have to beat the top AAC teams but we could use the Nova win to begin a good resume.

Nova is the Last Chance Saloon.

 

[Drew]

Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

I'm sort of surprised with this list. Only 3 AAC teams but Houston seems better than a 7 seed to me:

6. Cincinnati
7. Houston
11. UCF

 

[UConnStats]

That's difficult to answer in full. I give KenPom a flat weighting that is additive to the overall ranking (or subtractive if you're low enough.) But the NET rating has more weight (and previously the RPI) for just it's ranking in general, but then the quadrant system is based on NET, so that gives it even more weighting, since I have ratings based on q1/q2 wins and q3/q4 losses.

Not really the way I’d prefer they do it, but I’d think this would be really accurate. Good stuff

 

[BFieldHusky]

Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

I'm sort of surprised with this list. Only 3 AAC teams but Houston seems better than a 7 seed to me:

6. Cincinnati
7. Houston
11. UCF

Hard to take his list seriously when he has Kentucky has a 6 currently. They have lost to both good teams they have played and just feasted on cupcakes.

 

[QDOG5]

Can't overstate how much a win over Nova would help the Huskies. Without it they would need to lose no more than 5 conference regular season games and make make the conference tourney championship game.

 

[Slasher]

Update of my bracketology rankings. Top 68 plus AAC:
1 Kansas Big 12
2 Duke ACC
3 Michigan B1G
4 Wisconsin B1G
5 Michigan St. B1G
6 Virginia ACC
7 Tennessee SEC
8 North Carolina ACC
9 Nevada MWC
10 Gonzaga WCC
11 Indiana B1G
12 Oklahoma Big 12
13 Buffalo MAC
14 North Carolina St. ACC
15 Mississippi St. SEC
16 Texas Tech Big 12
17 Nebraska B1G
18 Houston AAC
19 Villanova Big East
20 Louisville ACC
21 Ohio St. B1G
22 Marquette Big East
23 Auburn SEC
24 Virginia Tech ACC
25 Florida St. ACC
26 Cincinnati AAC
27 Kansas St. Big 12
28 Iowa St. Big 12
29 Kentucky SEC
30 Iowa B1G
31 TCU Big 12
32 LSU SEC
33 Maryland B1G
34 Purdue B1G
35 St. John's Big East
36 Arizona St. Pac-12
37 Butler Big East
38 San Francisco WCC
39 Utah St. MWC
40 Texas Big 12
41 Florida SEC
42 Minnesota B1G
43 Creighton Big East
44 UCLA Pac-12
45 Northwestern B1G
46 Lipscomb ASUN
47 Belmont OVC
48 Washington Pac-12
49 Arizona Pac-12
50 Vanderbilt SEC
51 Mississippi SEC
52 Furman SoCon
53 Syracuse ACC
54 Fresno St. MWC
55 Oregon Pac-12
56 Penn St. B1G
57 Colorado Pac-12
58 Notre Dame ACC
59 Murray St. OVC
60 UCF AAC
61 Saint Mary's WCC
62 Toledo MAC
63 Clemson ACC
64 Seton Hall Big East
65 VCU A-10
66 New Mexico St. WAC
67 Wofford SoCon
68 Liberty Big South

AAC:

18 Houston AAC
26 Cincinnati AAC
60 UCF AAC
73 Temple AAC
81 Connecticut AAC
98 Tulsa AAC
114 Memphis AAC
122 Wichita St. AAC
125 SMU AAC
142 South Florida AAC
234 Tulane AAC
254 East Carolina AAC