100% with you on this take - I think the further the portal landscape evolves the more chalk we'll be seeing, less upsets. Talent is all being funneled to the top, so not sure how mid majors even have a chance going forward. This feels like a very, very chalky draw. It's hard for me to even see how anyone outside the top 2 seeds gets into the F4. It's going to happen, but there are not many compelling teams outside of the 2 line. ISU was a team, but they're down their best player and have looked bad the last month. I have a couple teams I've liked, but one is down a man.
Within the majors, I still think there is some competitive balance.
The mid-majors used to have a big selling point for second tier talent because they had playing time and shots for what would otherwise be a 7th or 8th player in a mid tier major conference rotation. Pre-Transfer Portal, a 2* that developed at a MAC or MVC school would not bother to transfer because moving up was a huge risk if the player had to sit and then hope that he was not recruited over at a bigger school in the next year and a half. There were some ways for a good mid-major coach to put a squad together and make a run. Now, all that matters is money. The A10 may be able to compete financially for a 10th or 11th guy on a major conference roster, but that is about it. MAC schools and below have basically no selling point other than the coaches may be smart and nicer. Maybe a school like UCSD can compete on the quality of the education, but I am reaching here.
You are seeing this in the preseason. There are fewer deep upsets in December than there have been in the past, and when it happens, it is usually one program in a conference, like Seton Hall this year, that is having a problem of some kind. Seton Hall basically has an A10 roster, which is how it lost games to the A10.
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