NCAA Seeding Discussion

[VAHuskyFan]

We’re dancing! So now it’s time to predict our seed. Here’s what I’ve got (thanks USC!):

0 Additional Wins: 10 seed.
1 Additional Win: 7 seed
2 Additional Wins: 6 seed.
3-4 Additional Wins: 5 seed.

A lot of pundits will project us as an 8 or a 9 tomorrow. Ultimately, I can’t see the Committee putting us on the 8/9 line given the Bouknight injury and our performance since his return. We will get pushed one way or the other. If we win on Saturday, I think we’re locked in as at least a 7.

Where does everyone think we wind up?

 

[MexicoHusky]

I think we should be a 7 or better. The 8/9 game would be b.s.

 

[nadavtheman]

I think we should be a 7 or better. The 8/9 game would be b.s.

I have a feeling we end up in an 8/9 game unless we make BE finals

 

[back2BE4us]

Win out - 5
Beat GTown and Creighton, lose Nova - 6
Beat GTown and lose Creighton - 7
Lose GTown - 10

I am not a bracket advisor. I just like the UConn stonk.

Edit: I did not see OP picks. I claim these drunken analytics as my own intellectual property.

 

[RayRay]

We’re dancing! So now it’s time to predict our seed. Here’s what I’ve got (thanks USC!):

0 Additional Wins: 10 seed.
1 Additional Win: 7 seed
2 Additional Wins: 6 seed.
3-4 Additional Wins: 5 seed.

A lot of pundits will project us as an 8 or a 9 tomorrow. Ultimately, I can’t see the Committee putting us on the 8/9 line given the Bouknight injury and our performance since his return. We will get pushed one way or the other. If we win on Saturday, I think we’re locked in as at least a 7.

Where does everyone think we wind up?

We have clearly shown that we are a different team with Bouknight, which the committee needed to see, so I hope you are right. I think what you said is reasonable, and could see this scenario play out. I like it!

 

[MexicoHusky]

I have a feeling we end up in an 8/9 game unless we make BE finals

If you based seeding just on the AP poll Nova should be a 3, Creighton a 4.... next best BE team is 8/9? Maybe, but if accurate it seems like b.s. We should be ranked or very, very close if we beat Gtown. Again, if seeding was just based on the AP poll that puts us in the 6-7 range. I don't think we need to do that much to get a 7 seed. A win against Gtown should be enough. If we make it to the BE Finals that should place us in the 5-6 range.

 

[Travelman6]

If UConn is in the 6-10 range there is a very good chance they could face a team like UNC, MSU, or Duke. Granted all three of these versions are not your typical UNC, Duke or MSU but at the same time, not a team I want to see in the first round, just the same. IF UConn were a 6, I would not want to see 11 MSU below them, or if they are a 9, vs. 8 UNC, or a 7/10 matchup with Duke....

Even if Uconn beats Gtown and wins the BET and gets a 5, they might not avoid MSU. Could you imagine MSU finishing the season 2-2, 1-1 vs Michigan and 1-1 in the B10T or even 0-2 vs Michigan and 2-1 in the B10T, that could end up being a nightmare 5-12 matchup for UConn IMO, or at least the last team I want to see in a 5-12 matchup. Tom works those refs and gets the calls and I'd be scared to lose a heartbreaker in the final seconds vs #12 MSU in that scenario. I'll take any other fringe team in a heartbeat rather than MSU.

Anyway, I am overthinking and looking into "what-ifs" way too much and will just be glad UConn has basically punched their ticket, or are very very close to doing so.

We’re dancing! So now it’s time to predict our seed. Here’s what I’ve got (thanks USC!):

0 Additional Wins: 10 seed.
1 Additional Win: 7 seed
2 Additional Wins: 6 seed.
3-4 Additional Wins: 5 seed.

A lot of pundits will project us as an 8 or a 9 tomorrow. Ultimately, I can’t see the Committee putting us on the 8/9 line given the Bouknight injury and our performance since his return. We will get pushed one way or the other. If we win on Saturday, I think we’re locked in as at least a 7.

Where does everyone think we wind up?

I am not so sure 1 win vs Gtown, followed by a loss in the first game of the BET (or worse, losing to GTown and 1-1 in the BET) would result in an increase in 3 seeds, in fact in the second case I think that would be 9-11 range. More than likely UConn is a 10 seed as it stands, and would get to a 9 seed, maybe, by finishing 1-1.

The big jump will be if they beat Gtown and go 1-1 in the BET that could and should lead to a 7 seed. I think if UConn runs the table and wins the BET you will see another big jump in seeds and they could get a 4 seed depending on other things.

 

[metsfan2323]

no lower than a 4 if we win out.

 

[freescooter]

Win out - 5
Beat GTown and Creighton, lose Nova - 6
Beat GTown and lose Creighton - 7
Lose GTown - 10

I am not a bracket advisor. I just like the UConn stonk.

Edit: I did not see OP picks. I claim these drunken analytics as my own intellectual property.

If we lose at home to an awful Georgetown team we probably deserve to drop to an 11-12. Agree with the rest of your ranking though.

 

[Brochacho]

If we win out I hope it’s a 3 or 6 seed. Don’t want to see Illinois, Gonzaga, Michigan or Baylor until we have to. Illinois is the team I want to avoid at all costs.

 

[navery12]

0-2 - 11 Seed
1-1 or 1-2 - 10 Seed
2-1 or - 7 seed
Lose in finals - 6 seed
4-0 - 5 seed

 

[auror]

0-2 - 11 Seed
1-1 or 1-2 - 10 Seed
2-1 or 3-1 - 7 seed
Lose in finals - 6 seed
5-0 - 5 seed

I'm pretty similar to you, but not jumping the 8-9.

0 wins - 11
1 win - 10
2 wins - 9
3 wins (Creighton) - 7....(No Creighton) - 8
4 wins Champ (Nova + Creighton) - 5...(just Nova) - 6...(just Creighton) - 6...(neither) - 7

 

[navery12]

I'm pretty similar to you, but not jumping the 8-9.

0 wins - 11
1 win - 10
2 wins - 9
3 wins (Creighton) - 7....(No Creighton) - 8
4 wins Champ (Nova + Creighton) - 5...(just Nova) - 6...(just Creighton) - 6...(neither) - 7

I think that's probably more accurate, I was approaching it as we're somewhere around an 8/9 now so we'll move up or down. But I think there probably is a scenario of something like wins over Georgetown/St John's and a loss to Creighton where we'd stay where we are

 

[CTBasketball]

Chances are if we win out, we’d be gaining 2 Q1 wins and end the season 17-6. I think we’d jump to the 4-5 line.

But in reality expect UConn to get screwed with an 8/9 and get Gonzaga in R2.

 

[OkaForPrez]

0-2 - 11 Seed
1-1 or 1-2 - 10 Seed
2-1 or 3-1 - 7 seed
Lose in finals - 6 seed
5-0 - 5 seed

3-1 = losing in the finals or winning it all after losing to Gtown.

4-0 is running the table.

 

[pepband99]

Lunardi just upped us to a 9.

Not bad, in my mind, with more to play on for.

 

[Tenspro2002]

0-2 - 11 Seed
1-1 or 1-2 - 10 Seed
2-1 or 3-1 - 7 seed
Lose in finals - 6 seed
5-0 - 5 seed

This is pretty much where I am, maybe a little less optimistic. Also, how would we play 5 games?

0-2: 11 seed
1-1 (beat G'Town, lose Xavier) or 1-2 (lose G'Town, beat Xavier, lose Creighton): 9-10 seed
2-1 (beat G'Town, beat Xavier, lose Creighton): 8 seed
3-1 (beat G'Town, Xavier, and Creighton, lose to Nova): 7 seed
4-0: 6 seed

 

[HuskyHawk]

Win out - 5
Beat GTown and Creighton, lose Nova - 6
Beat GTown and lose Creighton - 7
Lose GTown - 10

I am not a bracket advisor. I just like the UConn stonk.

Edit: I did not see OP picks. I claim these drunken analytics as my own intellectual property.

This seems right, except we can lose Georgetown and beat Creighton and won't be a 10. I think 8/9 is about our floor. 6/7 seems likely.

 

[navery12]

This is pretty much where I am, maybe a little less optimistic. Also, how would we play 5 games?

0-2: 11 seed
1-1 (beat G'Town, lose Xavier) or 1-2 (lose G'Town, beat Xavier, lose Creighton): 9-10 seed
2-1 (beat G'Town, beat Xavier, lose Creighton): 8 seed
3-1 (beat G'Town, Xavier, and Creighton, lose to Nova): 7 seed
4-0: 6 seed

I apparently can't count, it is only 4 games left

 

[Ricker]

I agree with most of the takes so far. A week or more ago, Decourcey was asked if the Bouknight injury would play into UConn's resume. He said it wouldn't for making the tournament but it could for seeding if UConn went on a run that proved they are a different team with him, else no. The evidence is mounting, we have started a run, and with a weakened Nova and an inconsistent Creighton, we really could get the Big East title. My view is that UConn is a different team when healthy, which includes Ajax and Bouk primarily. As the committee where do you seed UConn if your supplemental info is:

Current FYI with Bouk 9-2 without Bouk 4-4
Scenario Selection Sunday with Bouk 13-2 without Bouk 4-4

Individual games to note with vs without Bouk:
Lose to Creighton -2 OT Bouk 40pts Lose to Creighton -8 no Bouk
Beat Depaul by +21 Beat Depaul by +7
Lose to Prov by -11 Beat Prov by +12
Lose to Seton Hall by -7 Beat Hall by +11

Differences
UConn +6 vs Creighton with Bouk
UConn +14 vs Depaul with Bouk
UConn +23 vs Prov with Bouk and Ajax
UConn +18 vs Seton Hall with Bouk and Ajax
No observations where we did worse

I think we could get a 1 line bump up vs what our overall record of 17-6 justified. The primary reason being that it would be unfair to opponents if the committee underrates us.
Thoughts?

 

[superjohn]

I agree with most of the takes so far. A week or more ago, Decourcey was asked if the Bouknight injury would play into UConn's resume. He said it wouldn't for making the tournament but it could for seeding if UConn went on a run that proved they are a different team with him, else no. The evidence is mounting, we have started a run, and with a weakened Nova and an inconsistent Creighton, we really could get the Big East title. My view is that UConn is a different team when healthy, which includes Ajax and Bouk primarily. As the committee where do you seed UConn if your supplemental info is:

Current FYI with Bouk 9-2 without Bouk 4-4
Scenario Selection Sunday with Bouk 13-2 without Bouk 4-4

Individual games to note with vs without Bouk:
Lose to Creighton -2 OT Bouk 40pts Lose to Creighton -8 no Bouk
Beat Depaul by +21 Beat Depaul by +7
Lose to Prov by -11 Beat Prov by +12
Lose to Seton Hall by -7 Beat Hall by +11

Differences
UConn +6 vs Creighton with Bouk
UConn +14 vs Depaul with Bouk
UConn +23 vs Prov with Bouk and Ajax
UConn +18 vs Seton Hall with Bouk and Ajax
No observations where we did worse

I think we could get a 1 line bump up vs what our overall record of 17-6 justified. The primary reason being that it would be unfair to opponents if the committee underrates us.
Thoughts?

Agreed, it should and will factor in. It isn't 100% numbers, there is the eye test as well and we pass that. Anyone watching knows we're easily a top 25 team when healthy, they probably don't want a potential second round matchup with UConn playing a #1 seed.

 

[JohnFSilver]

We’re dancing! So now it’s time to predict our seed. Here’s what I’ve got (thanks USC!):

0 Additional Wins: 10 seed.
1 Additional Win: 7 seed
2 Additional Wins: 6 seed.
3-4 Additional Wins: 5 seed.

A lot of pundits will project us as an 8 or a 9 tomorrow. Ultimately, I can’t see the Committee putting us on the 8/9 line given the Bouknight injury and our performance since his return. We will get pushed one way or the other. If we win on Saturday, I think we’re locked in as at least a 7.

Where does everyone think we wind up?

Every win knocks them up a seed. they are 9 now. A loss keeps them where they are, 2 losses knocks them down a seed from where they are.

So I think they are a 5-10 depending on Big East tourney. They win Big East, -- 13-2 with Bouknight and a Big East title and record is 17-6-- they would be a top 20 Net ranking team. Probably get a low 5 on the S curve. They lost to G-Town and boucned out in the first round? Probably a 10 seed.

 

[shizzle787]

I think the seeding will depend on our path:
0 wins (L vs Georgetown, L vs DePaul): OUT
0 win (L vs Georgetown, L vs St. John's): 12 seed
1 win (W vs Georgetown, L vs DePaul): 11 seed
1 win (L vs Georgetown, W vs DePaul/St. John's, L vs Creighton): 10 seed
1 win (W vs Georgetown, L vs St. John's): 9 seed
2 wins (W vs Georgetown, W vs DePaul/St. John's, L vs Creighton): 8 seed
2 wins (L vs Georgetown, W vs DePaul/St. John's, W vs Creighton, L vs Villanova): 8 seed
3 wins (W vs Georgetown, W vs DePaul/St. John's, W vs Creighton, L vs Villanova): 6 seed
3 wins (L vs Georgetown, Win BET): 5 seed
4 wins: 4 seed

I think there will be more variance than ever before due to the smaller sample size of games so each game means much more than it would in previous years.

 

[Ricker]

Big 10 best out of conference win for the whole league is Jerry Palm 8 seed Louisville. Just Sayin

 

[QuickDraw]

I am not so sure 1 win vs Gtown, followed by a loss in the first game of the BET (or worse, losing to GTown and 1-1 in the BET) would result in an increase in 3 seeds, in fact in the second case I think that would be 9-11 range. More than likely UConn is a 10 seed as it stands, and would get to a 9 seed, maybe, by finishing 1-1.

The big jump will be if they beat Gtown and go 1-1 in the BET that could and should lead to a 7 seed. I think if UConn runs the table and wins the BET you will see another big jump in seeds and they could get a 4 seed depending on other things.

This