- Joined
- Sep 14, 2011
- Messages
- 2,676
- Reaction Score
- 6,257
A couple of recent threads have introduced the topic of which programs have performed the best over the past five years and how those programs differed from those of the previous five years.
Here is my Top Twenty using a simple statistic: the number of games played over the course of a tournament. A team making the competition plays 1 game. Make it to the second round, that's another game played, etc. Comparing teams over time is as simple as summing the "games played" across the interval of interest (or different intervals).
It might seem counterintuitive that such a simple statistic could yield significant discriminating power. It is the nature of the contest itself (win or go home) that provides the context that yields the power. Every team (save the champ) has exactly one loss per tournament appearance.
Inherent in the games played number, for example, is winning percentage. If a team played 3 games, they went 2-1. Want to know which teams went to the Elite Eight and then went home? Games played equals 4.
Team A made the Sweet Sixteen (before losing) five times in five years. Team B made the Final Four (before losing) three times and missed the tourney entirely the other two years. Who performed better? Answer: they performed the same. Five Sweet Sixteens at 3 games per equals 15 games, same as three Final Fours at 5 games per.
Also included in "games played" which other comparisons often ignore is credit for making the tournament at all, and for making the second round before bowing out.
One wrinkle added to my calculation is that of an "implied game." When just the games played are counted, there is no differentiation between the two teams that play for the championship. Both play 6 games. The champion gets no recognition for its unique achievement. The title winner, however, would have played a seventh game had the tournament continued whereas the runner-up would not. Thus, the champion is credited with a 7th games played by virtue of this "implied game."
Note: Using "wins" instead of "games played" would accomplish the same objective as the "implied game" without resorting to an artificial construct. Wins, however, suffers from two disadvantages. It requires more information, namely the result of each contest, and is therefore more difficult to calculate and prone to error. More importantly, "wins" ignores information. Those 32 teams that lose in the first round are not recognized for having accomplished something the 200+ not making the tourney didn't.
The Top Twenty (rank, team, games played)
2009-2013
1 Connecticut 31
2 Stanford 24
3 Baylor 22
4 Notre Dame 21
5 Duke 18
6 Oklahoma 18
7 Louisville 17
8 Texas A&M 17
9 Tennessee 16
10 Kentucky 14
11 Maryland 13
12 Gonzaga 13
13 Georgia 12
14 Iowa State 11
15 Vanderbilt 10
16 Michigan State 10
17 Purdue 10
18 Florida State 10
19 California 10
20 LSU 9
2004-2008
1 Tennessee 29
2 LSU 25
3 Connecticut 23
4 Duke 20
5 Stanford 20
6 North Carolina 19
7 Rutgers 18
8 Baylor 17
9 Maryland 16
10 Georgia 15
11 Purdue 14
12 Vanderbilt 13
13 Michigan State 13
14 Notre Dame 11
15 Oklahoma 11
16 Arizona State 11
17 George Washington 11
18 Minnesota 10
19 DePaul 9
20 Ohio State 9
Ten Years (2004-2013)
1 Connecticut 54
2 Tennessee 45
3 Stanford 44
4 Baylor 39
5 Duke 38
6 LSU 34
7 Notre Dame 32
8 Maryland 30
9 Oklahoma 29
10 Georgia 27
11 North Carolina 27
12 Rutgers 25
13 Purdue 24
14 Louisville 24
15 Texas A&M 24
16 Vanderbilt 23
17 Michigan State 23
18 Florida State 19
19 Ohio State 18
20 DePaul 17
Changes Between 2004-2008 and 2009-2013
Biggest Losers:
(fewer games per year during 2009-2013 than during 2004-2008)
LSU 3.2
Tennessee 2.6
North Carolina 2.2
Rutgers 2.2
George Washington 2.2
Biggest Winners:
(more games per year during 2009-2013 than during 2004-2008)
Gonzaga 2.4
Kentucky 2.4
Louisville 2.0
Notre Dame 2.0
Texas A&M 2.0
Also interesting (according to me anyway) is that ten teams (Baylor, UConn, DePaul, Duke, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Stanford, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt) made the tournament all ten years. Nine teams (LSU, Marist, Maryland, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio State, Purdue, and Rutgers made the field nine times. Eight teams (Florida State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Iowa, Iowa State, Liberty, Louisville, Temple, and Texas A&M) appeared eight times
183 different teams have played in the tournament over the past ten years.
Here is my Top Twenty using a simple statistic: the number of games played over the course of a tournament. A team making the competition plays 1 game. Make it to the second round, that's another game played, etc. Comparing teams over time is as simple as summing the "games played" across the interval of interest (or different intervals).
It might seem counterintuitive that such a simple statistic could yield significant discriminating power. It is the nature of the contest itself (win or go home) that provides the context that yields the power. Every team (save the champ) has exactly one loss per tournament appearance.
Inherent in the games played number, for example, is winning percentage. If a team played 3 games, they went 2-1. Want to know which teams went to the Elite Eight and then went home? Games played equals 4.
Team A made the Sweet Sixteen (before losing) five times in five years. Team B made the Final Four (before losing) three times and missed the tourney entirely the other two years. Who performed better? Answer: they performed the same. Five Sweet Sixteens at 3 games per equals 15 games, same as three Final Fours at 5 games per.
Also included in "games played" which other comparisons often ignore is credit for making the tournament at all, and for making the second round before bowing out.
One wrinkle added to my calculation is that of an "implied game." When just the games played are counted, there is no differentiation between the two teams that play for the championship. Both play 6 games. The champion gets no recognition for its unique achievement. The title winner, however, would have played a seventh game had the tournament continued whereas the runner-up would not. Thus, the champion is credited with a 7th games played by virtue of this "implied game."
Note: Using "wins" instead of "games played" would accomplish the same objective as the "implied game" without resorting to an artificial construct. Wins, however, suffers from two disadvantages. It requires more information, namely the result of each contest, and is therefore more difficult to calculate and prone to error. More importantly, "wins" ignores information. Those 32 teams that lose in the first round are not recognized for having accomplished something the 200+ not making the tourney didn't.
The Top Twenty (rank, team, games played)
2009-2013
1 Connecticut 31
2 Stanford 24
3 Baylor 22
4 Notre Dame 21
5 Duke 18
6 Oklahoma 18
7 Louisville 17
8 Texas A&M 17
9 Tennessee 16
10 Kentucky 14
11 Maryland 13
12 Gonzaga 13
13 Georgia 12
14 Iowa State 11
15 Vanderbilt 10
16 Michigan State 10
17 Purdue 10
18 Florida State 10
19 California 10
20 LSU 9
2004-2008
1 Tennessee 29
2 LSU 25
3 Connecticut 23
4 Duke 20
5 Stanford 20
6 North Carolina 19
7 Rutgers 18
8 Baylor 17
9 Maryland 16
10 Georgia 15
11 Purdue 14
12 Vanderbilt 13
13 Michigan State 13
14 Notre Dame 11
15 Oklahoma 11
16 Arizona State 11
17 George Washington 11
18 Minnesota 10
19 DePaul 9
20 Ohio State 9
Ten Years (2004-2013)
1 Connecticut 54
2 Tennessee 45
3 Stanford 44
4 Baylor 39
5 Duke 38
6 LSU 34
7 Notre Dame 32
8 Maryland 30
9 Oklahoma 29
10 Georgia 27
11 North Carolina 27
12 Rutgers 25
13 Purdue 24
14 Louisville 24
15 Texas A&M 24
16 Vanderbilt 23
17 Michigan State 23
18 Florida State 19
19 Ohio State 18
20 DePaul 17
Changes Between 2004-2008 and 2009-2013
Biggest Losers:
(fewer games per year during 2009-2013 than during 2004-2008)
LSU 3.2
Tennessee 2.6
North Carolina 2.2
Rutgers 2.2
George Washington 2.2
Biggest Winners:
(more games per year during 2009-2013 than during 2004-2008)
Gonzaga 2.4
Kentucky 2.4
Louisville 2.0
Notre Dame 2.0
Texas A&M 2.0
Also interesting (according to me anyway) is that ten teams (Baylor, UConn, DePaul, Duke, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Stanford, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt) made the tournament all ten years. Nine teams (LSU, Marist, Maryland, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio State, Purdue, and Rutgers made the field nine times. Eight teams (Florida State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Iowa, Iowa State, Liberty, Louisville, Temple, and Texas A&M) appeared eight times
183 different teams have played in the tournament over the past ten years.
