NBA Playoffs

[Rocktheworld]

I think Philly will be more than fine, but it’s geting overlooked that Embiid is going to turn 25 next season. He should be closer to his prime than he is to being a young guy still figuring things out.

Well he was an all-star this year, so...

 

[Dogdeacon]

Meh. It's their first playoffs. They had all sorts of opportunities to choke against the Heat and they didn't. Extrapolating one series when most of the best players are under 23 isn't a good idea. People said LeBron lacked a clutch gene in his first few playoff series as well...

That and Embid was clearly out of gas in 4th quarters all series. I haven't looked at numbers but could almost guarantee that his minutes were significantly up over regular season. And of course playoff minutes are harder minutes. Embid was KILLING the Celtics last night, but I liked the C's chances in the 4th Q because I'd seen Embid run out of gas four games straight.

Yes Simmons gagged, but part of not being able to shoot is... being afraid to shoot, rushing shots, avoiding FT. I'm defining not being able to shoot. Very obvious what those two guys need to work on and given how blatantly it was exposed & their lofty goals if I'm Philly fan I quickly spin the bright side that they'll be motivated to get in the gym this summer.

As a Celtics fan I love winning this series convincingly without Irving & Heyward, but I fear the future Sixers and kind of like you need a guy to stop LeBron - they'll definitely need someone bigger & quick to stop Embid 2.0.

Also as a Celtics fan: Markelle Fultz hahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[PAHusky]

I'd be so frustrated if I were a Philly fan. So many frustrating, sloppy turnovers throughout the series. Sure, Boston's D deserves a fair amount of credit but Philly has been doing this all season. It's rare to see such an evenly matched series end 4-1. Moving on...

I'm curious to see how Stevens defends LeBron. I'm assuming they'll stick with their strategy vs Philly (stick to shooters and rarely help on Simmons & Embiid) and let LeBron get his, but shut down everyone else. GSW did that in the 2015 Finals and it worked pretty darn well. Let LeBron get 50, it won't matter if the supporting cast isn't doing a darn thing (especially since they no longer have a player of Kyrie's caliber to share the load).

My gut feeling is that Boston wins this thing in six or seven. They are so well-rounded and their defense is significantly better than Cleveland's. Kevin Love is going get attacked mercilessly on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland is still a bit of a mess, we should all forget the series against those frauds from Canada. It means little; this series will be a return to reality and Cleveland will have their hands full. Then again, it's LeBron vs the East. He may find a way...

The strategy of letting Lebron get his that the Warriors used in 2015 worked because Lebron was playing with three janitors and a ticket booth worker by that point thanks to injuries. I'm interested to see what Stevens does in terms of defensive adjustments, but I think the cavs aren't going to have too many problems beating the celtics this series. As a neutral, I'd rather cleveland win. I don't think they have a real shot against either the rockets or warriors but I think the celtics have absolutely no chance against the west.

 

[auror]

The strategy of letting Lebron get his that the Warriors used in 2015 worked because Lebron was playing with three janitors and a ticket booth worker by that point thanks to injuries. I'm interested to see what Stevens does in terms of defensive adjustments, but I think the cavs aren't going to have too many problems beating the celtics this series. As a neutral, I'd rather cleveland win. I don't think they have a real shot against either the rockets or warriors but I think the celtics have absolutely no chance against the west.

That's @Lefty2one's whole point. Who do they have in this one? The Celtics' lineup defensively is versatile enough to match up with the small Cleveland lineups.

George Hill, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, LeBron James and Kevin Love has been their most used playoff lineup.

Kevin Love against Horford is a matchup I like for the Celtics.
Rozier should be able to "contain" George Hill.
Stick Tatum to Korver, no problems.
Jaylen Brown puts Smith into a cocoon.

Marcus Smart does his best against LeBron. He scores 35 a game. Boston stays at home. Rest of the Cavs struggle. Not to mention the Celtics have been playing similar teams the last couple of rounds. Super elite 6'9"+ guy with skills who is a terror in transition and can pass out to shooters or finish at the rim. Giannis & Simmons. Warm up courses for the main event.

The Hill/Love pick and roll has Horford switching onto Hill, which is no problem. You can even throw Brown onto Hill so that when he switches onto Love it's not as big a mismatch (or have Brown on LeBron and Smart to take Hill/switch onto Love if you think he's better if he gets put into the post).

Brad Stevens against Ty Lue. Celtics home court advantage.

Celts in 7.

 

[HuskyHawk]

That's his whole point. Who do they have in this one? The Celtics lineup defensively is versatile enough to match up with the small Cleveland lineups.

George Hill, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, LeBron James and Kevin Love has been their most used playoff lineup.

Kevin Love against Horford is a matchup I like for the Celtics.
Rozier should be able to "contain" George Hill.
Stick Tatum to Korver, no problems.
Jaylen Brown puts Smith into a cocoon.

Marcus Smart does his best against LeBron. He scores 35 a game. Boston stays at home. Rest of the Cavs struggle.

The Hill/Love pick and roll has Horford switching onto Hill, which is no problem. You can even throw Brown onto Hill so that when he switches onto Love it's not as big a mismatch (or have Brown on LeBron and Smart to take Hill/switch onto Love if you think he's better if he gets put into the post).

Brad Stevens against Ty Lue. Celtics home court advantage.

Celts in 7.

It wouldn't surprise me if they run a few bodies at Lebron in an effort to wear him down. Smart will get a lot of that duty, but I think you will see Brown on him and Semi as well. Semi played well against the Bucks, but was rarely needed against Philly. I think they'll use him against the Cavs.

I think Boston has more weapons and a better team defense, but the Cavs have the best player by a lot. It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out. I expect it to go 7, and that will be in Boston.

 

[Excalibur]

Whoever caught that in-bounds traveled. Brad Stevens is amazing though.

Not sure he had control enough to call traveling. The bigger miss was the double dribble by Horford after the steal. Of course they should have called an offensive foul on Philly before the double dribble.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Not sure he had control enough to call traveling. The bigger miss was the double dribble by Horford after the steal. Of course they should have called an offensive foul on Philly before the double dribble.

There was pretty much an offensive and defensive foul on every shot the last 4 minutes. Another blatant bad call was Saric camping in the paint at least a good 5 seconds before hitting the behind his head layup.

 

[champs99and04]

Meh. It's their first playoffs. They had all sorts of opportunities to choke against the Heat and they didn't. Extrapolating one series when most of the best players are under 23 isn't a good idea. People said LeBron lacked a clutch gene in his first few playoff series as well...

How old are Boston's players? I was more inclined to give them a cookie for handling a marginal Heat team before I saw this meltdown. In the series you are referring to they won their four games by an average of 19 points. They had the second best point differential in the East (and that was without 19 games of Embiid) yet finished three games behind the same Boston team that just beat them in five as heavy underdogs. Clutch gene might not be the right term. Weaknesses that are exacerbated in high leverage situations? Yes. Describes the last four UConn teams to a tee. LeBron averaged 31, 8, and 6 in his first postseason at a younger age than Simmons. He made the right basketball play from day one. Philly in that series? Not so much.

We can call the series what it is without losing sight of the fact that long-term things still look good: a failure. There was no reason for them to lose to Boston minus Heyward and Irving.

 

[Dogdeacon]

The strategy of letting Lebron get his that the Warriors used in 2015 worked because Lebron was playing with three janitors and a ticket booth worker by that point thanks to injuries. I'm interested to see what Stevens does in terms of defensive adjustments, but I think the cavs aren't going to have too many problems beating the celtics this series. As a neutral, I'd rather cleveland win. I don't think they have a real shot against either the rockets or warriors but I think the celtics have absolutely no chance against the west.

Celtics defense is better than the Cavs defense. That is a HUGE regular season fact and although the Cavs improved greatly in the Toronto series the defensive edge still goes to Celtics - way more switchable players, fewer players to hide, better 3-pt defense etc... LeBron is a great trump card that has prevailed in the past, but that does not make the Cavs automatic to win the next series and while LeBron's presence alone gives the Cavs a puncher's chance v the West, the Celtics team defense is engineered both physically and conceptually to compete against teams like the Warriors and Rockets. Celts probably don't have the offensive horses to get it done this season, but they matchup better defensively against anyone than the Cavs do.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Don’t tell anyone but the Celtics average age is 24.38 and Sixers 24.35.

 

[Dogdeacon]

How old are Boston's players? I was more inclined to give them a cookie for handling a marginal Heat team before I saw this meltdown. In the series you are referring to they won their four games by an average of 19 points. They had the second best point differential in the East (and that was without 19 games of Embiid) yet finished three games behind the same Boston team that just beat them in five as heavy underdogs. Clutch gene might not be the right term. Weaknesses that are exacerbated in high leverage situations? Yes. Describes the last four UConn teams to a tee. LeBron averaged 31, 8, and 6 in his first postseason at a younger age than Simmons. He made the right basketball play from day one. Philly in that series? Not so much.

Boston average age 24.82, Philly 24.69 (link below, pre Kyrie injury!) - that is essentially the same. The difference is one of the key principals for the Celtics in Horford has tons of playoff experience and then Rozier, Brown and Smart were in conference finals last year. Philly has been a losing team until this season, they've succeeded in #1 to do of make the playoffs and shake off those bad habits (with help of experienced Reddick, Illyasova & Bellinnelli) but now learning how to win on most competitive game requires both eliminating those weaknesses you mentioned and making good plays in clutch situations (& experienced + inexperienced Sixers failed at this earlier in series). Wouldn't be surprised to see either Philly take a step back next year (but forward after that) or get to conference finals and learn more hard but productive lessons.
Oldest and Youngest NBA Teams After 2018 NBA Trade Deadline

 

[champs99and04]

Including the guy who won a ring while making the single biggest shot (and FT) on a NC-winning team in your shade hurts your credibility.

I said era. That means three seasons. You don't have to take it from me because the numbers are at your disposal.

 

[MadDogRevival]

Wouldn't be surprised to see either Philly take a step back next year . . .

I would be surprised. They're going to have LeBron, and they'll be going to the finals after beating Boston in 6 or 7.

 

[champs99and04]

Boston average age 24.82, Philly 24.69 (link below, pre Kyrie injury!) - that is essentially the same. The difference is one of the key principals for the Celtics in Horford has tons of playoff experience and then Rozier, Brown and Smart were in conference finals last year. Philly has been a losing team until this season, they've succeeded in #1 to do of make the playoffs and shake off those bad habits (with help of experienced Reddick, Illyasova & Bellinnelli) but now learning how to win on most competitive game requires both eliminating those weaknesses you mentioned and making good plays in clutch situations (& experienced + inexperienced Sixers failed at this earlier in series). Wouldn't be surprised to see either Philly take a step back next year (but forward after that) or get to conference finals and learn more hard but productive lessons.
Oldest and Youngest NBA Teams After 2018 NBA Trade Deadline

I really don't think the <30 minutes per game Rozier and Brown combined to play in last year's postseason prepared them to dominate crunch-time like they have. I also think the idea of "playoff experience" is dramatically overrated. Remember how badly Kyrie struggled in his first postseason? Me neither. How about Kawhi? Tatum? It's a different level of intensity for sure, but basketball is basketball. As far as veteran leadership goes, you can point to Al Horford, I can point to J.J. Redick. Horford is the better player, but Redick was just as influential in terms of lifting some of the burden from younger guys late in games.

I mean, who knows. We've seen it before with the Thunder coming unraveled against Dallas in the 2011 conference finals. Then again, they never really shook free from those crunch-time problems. Sometimes it can be difficult to differentiate between bad habits that are fixable and flaws that are going to linger. I think it's the second one with Philly, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of luck involved as well. You figure the best "clutch" players and coaches are going to win, what, 60% of those one possession games? It's an inexact science but there are certain players whose skill sets allow them to flourish against dialed-in playoff defenses. Tatum looks like he might be one. Simmons strikes me as a guy who isn't built for those situations and knows it. Embiid just has to put it together.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I would be surprised. They're going to have LeBron, and they'll be going to the finals after beating Boston in 6 or 7.

Honestly this series wasn’t too many plays away from Philly winning 4-1.

With LeBron, despite Kyrie and Hayward being back, said Philly team has to win in 6 or less

Although given the first statement, they may feel as though they don’t really need LeBron. But if, given reports that he does indeed want to, LeBron plays a little more off the ball as a true small forward but still as the best player and best scorer on the team for a few more years as Simmons and Embiid really enter their primes, that is a very scary team

Who does Cleveland get in return? Philly’s LA pick, Fultz, and another piece?

 

[MadDogRevival]

Who does Cleveland get in return? Philly’s LA pick, Fultz, and another piece?

I don't know squat about how the trade would work, but isn't LBJ an unrestricted FA? Cleveland gets nothing.
I just know that if LeBron wants to play there, you keep your best 3 guys, and then everybody else is on the block. LeBron plus Embiid plus 7 scrubs is a finals team. LBJ + E + Simmons + Fulz + Reddick beats the Warriors in 2 years.
Reddick could shoot 50% from 3 with LBJ on the team.

 

[intlzncster]

As a Celtics fan I love winning this series convincingly without Irving & Heyward, but I fear the future Sixers and kind of like you need a guy to stop LeBron - they'll definitely need someone bigger & quick to stop Embid 2.0.

Tatum and Jalen are on trajectories of their own though. Younger and a lot of upside to go with those two guys. In three years, they'll be hitting their prime. Kyrie will still be under 30 years old. That's a hell of a core.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Honestly this series wasn’t too many plays away from Philly winning 4-1.

With LeBron, despite Kyrie and Hayward being back, said Philly team has to win in 6 or less

Although given the first statement, they may feel as though they don’t really need LeBron. But if, given reports that he does indeed want to, LeBron plays a little more off the ball as a true small forward but still as the best player and best scorer on the team for a few more years as Simmons and Embiid really enter their primes, that is a very scary team

Who does Cleveland get in return? Philly’s LA pick, Fultz, and another piece?

Cleveland gets something IF LeBron wants the max salary and does a sign and trade. I'm not certain if he'd have to commit to multiple years to do that?
More likely that LeBron doesn't care as much about Yr1 money and just goes to best situation b/c he doesn't want to decimate his new team's future via a trade.

An arguable upside to Philly's loss is they increased their LeBron odds. If Philly had advanced and somehow beat the Cavs bad look for LeBron to jump ship. And/or maybe the series gives LeBron too much insiders look at Philly and he doesn't see himself amidst the two strong, younger alphas. I don't think LeBron is ready to be option 2 or 3 for quite a few years yet. For that reason my money is still on Lakers unless Cleveland somehow wins a title.

 

[intlzncster]

If LeBron goes to Philly, and Anthony Davis doesn't somehow magically appear in a Celtics uni, I'm done.

I already feel like the KD thing killed the NBA for a few years (unless LeBron goes to Philly and then we have one decent series). I see them winning this year and almost certainly the next two. The only drama is whether somebody gets injured.

NBA is so damn top heavy. Would be ideal (competition-wise only), if there were about have or a 1/3 of the teams. Then you might have something.

 

[tzznandrew]

How old are Boston's players?

Boston's best player right now is Horford. He's experienced and settled down the youngins, who got to learn all year from Irving. Hell, Marcus Smart has experience on a winning team, too. Of the best Celtics players, only Tatum did not have experience playing in the playoffs before this series. Brown and Rozier played in the conference Finals last year...

All of the 76ers best players, save JJ, were new to the playoffs.

 

[intlzncster]

How old are Boston's players?

Boston's best player right now is Horford. He's experienced and settled down the youngins, who got to learn all year from Irving. Hell, Marcus Smart has experience on a winning team, too. Of the best Celtics players, only Tatum did not have experience playing in the playoffs before this series. All of the 76ers best players, save JJ, were new to the playoffs.

Tatum - 20
Brown - 21
Rozier - 24
Smart - 24
Horford - 31

Putting aside experience, the C's roster overall is just as young as Philly. People forget that.

Overall Avg Age:
Celtics - 25.4.
Philly - 25.3.

Avg Age - played more than 20 games:
Celtics (inc Hayward) - 24.9
Philly (inc Fultz) - 26.1

 

[Walker11]

I will be surprised if the Rockets Warriors series isn't an all timer.

 

[intlzncster]

I will be surprised if the Rockets Warriors series isn't an all timer.

Warriors in 5 or 6.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

I think Philly will be more than fine, but it’s geting overlooked that Embiid is going to turn 25 next season. He should be closer to his prime than he is to being a young guy still figuring things out.

I don't think he has played a full season's worth of games in his career, or barely that. The two hardest positions to master are point guard and center. This team is nursery school young. Nothing I saw concerned me other than Brown not playing his Number 1 pick at all.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I don't think he has played a full season's worth of games in his career, or barely that. The two hardest positions to master are point guard and center. This team is nursery school young. Nothing I saw concerned me other than Brown not playing his Number 1 pick at all.

I mean I wouldn’t trot a rookie SG out there who played 13 total games, in a series in which you are down, in the playoffs where every possession matters

 

[Waquoit]

I said era. That means three seasons. You don't have to take it from me because the numbers are at your disposal.

It was pretty clear that my comment wasn't about the "numbers". It was using a guy that came through in the clutch in your description of a choke team. You could have said the Ollie/Purvis era.

 

[Dogdeacon]

If LeBron goes to Philly, and Anthony Davis doesn't somehow magically appear in a Celtics uni, I'm done.

I already feel like the KD thing killed the NBA for a few years (unless LeBron goes to Philly and then we have one decent series). I see them winning this year and almost certainly the next two. The only drama is whether somebody gets injured.

NBA is so damn top heavy. Would be ideal (competition-wise only), if there were about have or a 1/3 of the teams. Then you might have something.

I hear you. If Houston doesn't give the Warriors a series, then this year was much ado about a pre-destined outcome. Houston was the best team thru the regular season and absolutely everything they've done in personnel and style is geared towards beating the Warriors. The series should be at least very good and the defacto championship. Yet somehow I'm rooting for the Warriors to crush Houston b/c I'm not a fan of Harden's style & I've seen D'antoni crash & burn too many times. Maybe that'll change when the games start and if the Celtics take early games off the Cavs I will start rooting for the lesser opponent.

Agree 100% LeBron going to Philly would be stupid, it was a cool idea in January when no one knew if Philly would make the playoffs, but now that we've all 'seen the future', LeBron joining the team would make the rest of the east totally irrelevant, even the Celtics.

In the West, the Warriors core of Curry, Durant, Green & Thompson have 1 more year, then Thompson & Durant expire following next season. Expiring in 2020 are Iggy (16-17MM) and Draymond (17.5-18.5MM). So assuming they want to keep Durant and Thompson there's a decent chance that the Warriors make a trade next year (Draymond, no one is taking Izzy for that money) to breakup their core before losing players to free agency and chances for other teams to win a title open back up as early as next season. At worst its 2 more years of current core Warrior dynasty.

The Durant to Warriors scenario was an unlikely anomaly due to sudden salary cap spike that immediately receded. But Philly's young tanking produced squad makes a different non-competitive scenario possible again. Hopefully the current crop of great young stars without a defined LeBron alpha opens both conferences back up soon.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I don't think he has played a full season's worth of games in his career, or barely that. The two hardest positions to master are point guard and center. This team is nursery school young. Nothing I saw concerned me other than Brown not playing his Number 1 pick at all.

It is INSANE that Boston's #3 pick was the leading scorer in the series and the #1 overall pick Philly acquired from Boston could not get off the pine for a minute. Give Philly Tatum and Boston gets trounced by the Bucks if they even make the playoffs and the Sixers are favored over LeBron and a threat to the Warriors.

Also Lonzo Ball picked over Tatum. Tatum rubbed Philly's nose in that trade pretty good, if the Celtics luck into the Lakers pick (if 2-5) then they too get to bask in the stupidity of passing on Tatum while the Celtics continue to build.

 

[auror]

Don’t tell anyone but the Celtics average age is 24.38 and Sixers 24.35.

If you weight by minutes played, Boston is the 3rd youngest team in the league after the Lakers and Suns and well younger than the Sixers. Boston won the same number of games as those two teams did combined in regular season.

 

[UConn990411]

Well he was an all-star this year, so...

He also consistently wasn’t good at the end of games, so...

Not arguing against the fact that he’s really good. I just think Philly’s youth is overstated.