NBA first round

[Dogdeacon]

So is MN vs OKC the defacto championship or does the Indiana - Knicks winner have a puncher's chance?

Paradoxically, I think Indiana is the better team in the East, but the Knicks would be more fun in the finals.... partially because regardless the West winner likely romps. Both series should be excellent.

My gut is OKC has crossed a major hurdle via knocking out Denver so decisively in a Game 7. Next it take 6-7 games to beat a more experienced MN team w/transcendent Edwards. Yet Shai is in the process of cementing his case as the new best player in the league. Better odds in my view that the Thunder (say ~70%) are the champs vs any (20% MN, 5% each Knicks/Pacers) of the 3 others.

 

[navery12]

So is MN vs OKC the defacto championship or does the Indiana - Knicks winner have a puncher's chance?

Paradoxically, I think Indiana is the better team in the East, but the Knicks would be more fun in the finals.... partially because regardless the West winner likely romps. Both series should be excellent.

My gut is OKC has crossed a major hurdle via knocking out Denver so decisively in a Game 7. Next it take 6-7 games to beat a more experienced MN team w/transcendent Edwards. Yet Shai is in the process of cementing his case as the new best player in the league. Better odds in my view that the Thunder (say ~70%) are the champs vs any (20% MN, 5% each Knicks/Pacers) of the 3 others.

From the sound of it you haven't watched much of the NBA this year

 

[Inyatkin]

So is MN vs OKC the defacto championship or does the Indiana - Knicks winner have a puncher's chance?

Paradoxically, I think Indiana is the better team in the East, but the Knicks would be more fun in the finals.... partially because regardless the West winner likely romps. Both series should be excellent.

My gut is OKC has crossed a major hurdle via knocking out Denver so decisively in a Game 7. Next it take 6-7 games to beat a more experienced MN team w/transcendent Edwards. Yet Shai is in the process of cementing his case as the new best player in the league. Better odds in my view that the Thunder (say ~70%) are the champs vs any (20% MN, 5% each Knicks/Pacers) of the 3 others.

OKC is the favorite but those odds you give don't seem based on reality. Any team could win it

 

[Waquoit]

OKC is the favorite but those odds you give don't seem based on reality. Any team could win it

All you need is a chip and a chair.

 

[Mr. French]

From the sound of it you haven't watched much of the NBA this year

What did he say that’s way off?

I agree about Indiana/NY, and I agree OKC is the major favorite. Minnesota is their strongest test left, so I agree there too.

I’m just genuinely curious what you think.

 

[navery12]

What did he say that’s way off?

I agree about Indiana/NY, and I agree OKC is the major favorite. Minnesota is their strongest test left, so I agree there too.

I’m just genuinely curious what you think.

Indiana is not the better team in the East.

OKC is nowhere close to a 70% favorite to win the title. I'd say they're the slight favorite but I'd say all 4 teams are between 20-30% to win it. They're all very evenly matched and very good teams

 

[Dogdeacon]

From the sound of it you haven't watched much of the NBA this year

OKC is nowhere close to a 70% favorite to win the title. I'd say they're the slight favorite but I'd say all 4 teams are between 20-30% to win it. They're all very evenly matched and very good teams

See below, you are incorrect on OKC

Re: haven't watched NBA... Specifically why?
I haven't seen a lot of OKC games but I've watched enough esp in playoffs and seen their defense turn it up to a level no one else has. And they are way deeper since Chet (hated him in college, lukewarm on him in NBA) came back with Cason W, Aaron Wiggins and Caruso coming off the bench. Those 3 contribute on both ends and play meaningful minutes and they are still playing 10-11 guys which is unprecedented at this stage of the playoffs (see 2025 Lakers) I hear their coach went to a good school too.

I didn't look before, looking now Current odds are:
OKC -180 ~ 64.29%
MN +600 - 14.29%
NYK +490 - 16.95%
Pacers +800 - 11.11%
I wasn't far off on OKC basically within 5% on 3/4 teams (esp since they don't have totals adding to 100)?!
And the odds reinforce my point that OKC is a better bet than the field.

I'm not high on the Knicks and I'd say part of the betting odds are 'fan' money influencing line. I think with a healthy Tingas Pingas the Celtics KILL the Knicks (admitted I'm a C's fan) and if the Knicks advance I think its just happy to be here time. And the point of my post was that I don't think the east is nearly as good as the West - do you disagree?

 

[Mr. French]

Indiana is not the better team in the East.

OKC is nowhere close to a 70% favorite to win the title. I'd say they're the slight favorite but I'd say all 4 teams are between 20-30% to win it. They're all very evenly matched and very good teams

OKC is definitely the odds on favorite to win. The NY/Indiana series is close in odds, NYK are slight favorites, but many are arguing Indiana is a better team. That’s not a bad take at all, even if you don’t fully agree. That’s legit based on the last month, at least.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Indiana is not the better team in the East.

OKC is nowhere close to a 70% favorite to win the title. I'd say they're the slight favorite but I'd say all 4 teams are between 20-30% to win it. They're all very evenly matched and very good teams

I think its somewhere in between. OKC is definitely the favorite, then the other 3 are behind in some combination. All 3 have been impressive but OKC has answers to more questions on both sides of the ball.

 

[navery12]

admitted I'm a C's fan

Thanks, your posts make sense now

 

[navery12]

And the point of my post was that I don't think the east is nearly as good as the West - do you disagree?

I absolutely disagree with this. The bottom of the West is significantly better than the bottom and even middle of the East, but the top of both leagues are both very similar

 

[navery12]

OKC is definitely the odds on favorite to win. The NY/Indiana series is close in odds, NYK are slight favorites, but many are arguing Indiana is a better team. That’s not a bad take at all, even if you don’t fully agree. That’s legit based on the last month, at least.

Maybe I'm way off then, but that seems crazy to me. Especially with how OKC has looked this postseason

 

[Scoe]

Knicks are a completely different team with a healthy Mitchell Robinson, knock on wood. I did say the Celtics would sweep the Knicks and win every by double digits. So I'm gonna continue this and say the Pacers will sweep the Knicks and win every game by double digits.

 

[gsmooth]

Indiana is not the better team in the East.

OKC is nowhere close to a 70% favorite to win the title. I'd say they're the slight favorite but I'd say all 4 teams are between 20-30% to win it. They're all very evenly matched and very good teams

OKC is not a slight favorite, they are a definitive favorite-that's the general consensus among, fans, analysts, sportsbooks, etc.. They have home court advantage through out the playoffs, the most likely the 2025 MVP, a high level all star in Jalen Williams, a ton of depth to wear teams out, and a great coach.

Is OKC a 70% favorite? Reasonable minds can disagree, but it's not outrageous to say a 70% favorite. Will OKC win the championship? Who knows.

 

[navery12]

OKC is not a slight favorite, they are a definitive favorite-that's the general consensus among, fans, analysts, sportsbooks, etc.. They have home court advantage through out the playoffs, the most likely the 2025 MVP, a high level all star in Jalen Williams, a ton of depth to wear teams out, and a great coach.

Is OKC a 70% favorite? Reasonable minds can disagree, but it's not outrageous to say a 70% favorite. Will OKC win the championship? Who knows.

Yeah that's been pointed out, I stand by that being ridiculous. That implies them being ~80% favorites over both Minnesota and the Eastern conference winner, which is WAY too high for me

 

[MJ1]

Time to change the title of the thread, we’re no longer in the first round.

 

[Lefty2one]

I don't consider OKC a massive favorite. DEN is a mess and took them to seven games without Jokic being Superman. I think they'll beat MIN in a great series but wouldn't be surprised if MIN advanced, especially with how the refs are calling these playoffs.

I'm not a believer in Indy. They needed 7 games to beat a Knicks team last year that didn't have Randle, Mitch, OG for the half series, banged up Hart, and Brunson eventually broke his hand. They're going to beat a Knicks team that now has KAT, Mitch, Bridges, and a healthy OG in 6 games (I'm seeing this prediction a lot)? I just don't see it. I know Mathurin is healthy this year but that's peanuts compared to the additions the Knicks are bringing to the table. Depth matters less and less the deeper you get into the postseason. Rotations shrink. The pace slows down. I think everything is lining up for the Knicks in this series.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

I don't consider OKC a massive favorite. DEN is a mess and took them to seven games without Jokic being Superman. I think they'll beat MIN in a great series but wouldn't be surprised if MIN advanced, especially with how the refs are calling these playoffs.

I'm not a believer in Indy. They needed 7 games to beat a Knicks team last year that didn't have Randle, Mitch, OG for the half series, banged up Hart, and Brunson eventually broke his hand. They're going to beat a Knicks team that now has KAT, Mitch, Bridges, and a healthy OG in 6 games (I'm seeing this prediction a lot)? I just don't see it. I know Mathurin is healthy this year but that's peanuts compared to the additions the Knicks are bringing to the table. Depth matters less and less the deeper you get into the postseason. Rotations shrink. The pace slows down. I think everything is lining up for the Knicks in this series.

I think Knicks-Pacers is an even series. The Pacers have been legitimately elite since around mid December, their offense is beautiful. The Knicks have a versatile lineup and options, but they dilly dally a bit too much on offense.

Comparing to last year won’t help much. Two different teams, Nesmith has really taken a step and Siakam has a full season on the team, while obviously the Knicks are much different. Should be a great series.

 

[aceboon]

Maybe a 1 game overreaction but I just don't see how Minny has enough players to win this series, and OKC got like 5 dudes they can use on Ant all game to wear him out.

 

[aceboon]

Agree with Simmons on this, and what makes it worse is the refs allow OKC to foul on damn near every possession on the other end.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Agree with Simmons on this, and what makes it worse is the refs allow OKC to foul on damn near every possession on the other end.

OKC was 5th-To-Last in attempted FTs during the season.

They gave up the 4th most defensively.

I think this whole thing is blown out of proportion a bit. SGA this season was 228th all time in free throw attempts, 230th in attempts per game.

 

[aceboon]

OKC was 5th-To-Last in attempted FTs during the season.

They gave up the 4th most defensively.

I think this whole thing is blown out of proportion a bit. SGA this season was 228th all time in free throw attempts, 230th in attempts per game.

the point of the tweet was discussing postseason basketball, why are you referencing regular season stats?

 

[superjohn]

Agree with Simmons on this, and what makes it worse is the refs allow OKC to foul on damn near every possession on the other end.

They sure seem to be getting reffed differently than everyone else, glaringly so IMO. I love the physical play in the playoffs but they're getting away with so much. I kind of wish Jokic launched Caruso into the fifth row last game. He was legitimately hanging on Jokic's arms most of the game.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

the point of the tweet was discussing postseason basketball, why are you referencing regular season stats?

Well it’s been a complaint all season. I think under the microscope people react more. That call on NAW was a bad call, I don’t think anything else was particularly egregious.

 

[champs99and04]

OKC was 5th-To-Last in attempted FTs during the season.

They gave up the 4th most defensively.

I think this whole thing is blown out of proportion a bit. SGA this season was 228th all time in free throw attempts, 230th in attempts per game.

And maybe more importantly, there doesn't seem to be any sort of abnormal jump in attempts from regular season to playoffs when comparing him to other top players:

SGA - 8.8 FTA in the regular season --> 9.2 FTA in the playoffs

Brunson - 6.9 FTA --> 7.8 FTA

Haliburton - 3.0 FTA --> 3.4 FTA

Murray - 3.7 FTA --> 4.0 FTA

Mitchell - 5.1 FTA --> 9.9 FTA

Tatum - 6.1 FTA --> 6.8 FTA

Brown - 5.1 FTA --> 6.0 FTA

Butler - 7.7 FTA --> 7.3 FTA

Edwards - 6.3 FTA --> 5.8 FTA

His attempts have actually increased at a slightly lesser rate than the average player, so while you'd have to compare usage rates and a handful of other variables to make this a more exact study, you'd think it would show up in this data if he were indeed being officiated differently than everyone else.

Of course, it could just be that, based on my limited research, Edwards is getting a bad whistle, which makes it stand out more when SGA is officiated normally. But I'm more inclined to believe that SGA living at the line is more a result of him settling for threes less than other star players.