NBA Finals: Heat vs Spurs, who you got?

[UCHuskies08]

Heat in whatever

 

[Dogdeacon]

I've been watching a lot of footage from last years finals on NBA TV over the past couple days. One thing that jumped out at me was just how damn good of a defender Chris Bosh is. He can force Duncan into reasonably tough shots on the block and then switch onto Parker on the perimeter and contain him. Miami is a whole other animal when compared to Oklahoma City because of their versatility - LeBron and Bosh can literally guard all five positions (Bosh more so in moderation, obviously you don't want him guarding Parker for the full 48). Oklahoma City, aside from Ibaka, had nobody like that. Unlike Oklahoma City, Miami can switch ball screens late in games without leaving themselves vulnerable to mismatches. Whereas San Antonio largely generated what they wanted, whenever they wanted against the Thunder, against Miami they're a bit more dependent on individual heroics late in the shot clock. The Spurs are definitely capable of making those plays, but the degree of difficulty is far higher.

Also, I know it isn't exactly a unique or unprecedented strategy to force LeBron into mid-range jump shots, but the Spurs take it to a whole over level. They give him acres of space out there and aren't at all afraid of switching bigger defenders like Duncan onto him or even smaller guys like Parker, because their entire defense against James is predicated on clogging the paint. Pop probably looks at a player like James and thinks like this: LeBron does a lot of things well as a player, but he kills you the most when he's A) getting to the rim, and B) dicing up the defense and locating shooters. LeBron is lethal in those two areas, and when you're up against a great player, you can't take away everything, so you have to eliminate one or two things he does really well. San Antonio doesn't want to allow him to get to the rim, but they also don't want to compromise their defensive structure by over-helping and abandoning shooters. The end result, then, is the Spurs sagging off James and baiting him into jump shots. Normally, that strategy would be ill-advised against an elite jump shooter like LeBron, but when he is so simultaneously overpowering and aware, that's what you have to resort to. And, simple as it sounds, that is what this series comes down to in my eyes: can LeBron (and to a lesser extent, Wade) hit enough jump shots to make the Spurs pay for packing the paint? He definitely did in game seven, games one through six, not as much.

Great analysis. Given how Diaw emerged late in the OKC series who do you think guards him? Bosh is a good defender but after that their front court players are more one-dimensional. For example Anderson can defend inside but struggles away from the hoop. LeBron on Diaw leaves Kawhi Leonard with a very favorable matchup. Although on flip side I think Diaw's success on LeBron last year was a fluke and thus it'll be difficult to have Duncan and Diaw on the floor when Bosh is Miami's only big. In addition to the jump shot making, another key determinant is San Antonio's ability to stop 1 big lineups.

 

[partial]

I think the heat will take the series, offensively they're clicking with lots of spacing, Bosh making 3s and wade playing like the superstar he is. Defensively they can switch everything and the spurs aren't that scary inside. The x factor for the spurs is Diaw and Leonard playing well. I think as a matchup OKC would have had a better shot at beating the Heat from a strategic standpoint.

 

[J187Money]

Spurs. Home court makes the difference. It is a carnival down here. Almost got ran off the road yesterday by the police escort for the mascot who was on a Harley.

 

[Jerry1714]

I would say Spurs in 5, but the NBA will make sure it goes 6.

Spurs are the much better team.

 

[Jerry1714]

I would say Spurs in 5, but the NBA will make sure it goes 6.

Spurs are the much better team.

This was easy to see coming. Heat ran through a terrible terrible east. Spurs are a different level team.

 

[Scoe]

to answer the OP question because I didn't make my pick, I have the Spurs winning.