NBA Finals: Heat vs Spurs, who you got?

[Kitaman]

Spurs in 6. San Antonio on a mission!

Also when did they start spreading out the games over several days?

 

[James]

Miami in 6
Wade hitting open jumpshots
Lebron lebronning

 

[bmayuc]

Heat 7

The wildcard here is the health of Tony Parker. If he is ready to go, I think this series goes 7. Rematch, stylistic variance, prideful teams, skillfull teams, older players. This is going to be a war. The 2-2-1-1-1 format almost ensures this goes teh distance. I see each team picking one away game off through game 6, and then the Heat winning in San Antonio to cement their legacy.

factors to watch:

1. The Danny Green vs Ray Allen thing. The guy is lights out at home, ice-cold on the road. Spurs need 12-15 ppg out of him to spread the floor. Then there is Ray. Spurs NEED this to be a draw badly
2. The rise of Kawai Leonard - Can he give LeBron a hard time and stay out of foul trouble. Spurs need 45 mpg out of him.
3. The old guys: Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Allen, Birdman, Battier and it goes on. Does someone get injured? Can they carry the team?

 

[dogfan96]

Miami in 6... Wade is healthy, Bosh is playing well, and LeBron is at the peak of his powers and he hasn't even taken it to Level 10 in the playoffs.. yet. If those 3 are playing well, they have a level that no other team can reach.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Miami in 6... Wade is healthy, Bosh is playing well, and LeBron is at the peak of his powers and he hasn't even taken it to Level 10 in the playoffs.. yet. If those 3 are playing well, they have a level that no other team can reach.

This is what it keeps coming down to for me. San Antonio plays at a very high level very consistently, but if both teams are playing their best, Miami can't be beaten. It really just comes down to LeBron. He's too good at every facet of the game at this point. Watching him dominate on the offensive end two years ago before going down and forcing Durant into a bad shot was amazing. I've never seen a player dominate games quite like he does, and that includes you-know-who.

 

[Horatio]

Spurs .Spurs bigs make the difference .

 

[CallMeBruce]

Spurs .Spurs bigs make the difference .

This hasn't been true in the NBA for a while.

 

[dogfan96]

This hasn't been true in the NBA for a while.

Unless you have 2000-2003 Shaq.. lol.. but nobody does (or ever will again most likely).. and the Celtics lack of size cost them the title against Gasol/Bynum/Odom in Game 7. But your point is well made.

 

[Strummer]

I'm going to go with whichever team LeBron James is on.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Spurs in 7. Popovich will have a plan to contain LeBron as much as humanly possible, he always does. There's a reason the Spurs give him more trouble than any other team in the league.

And analytics seem to favor the Spurs as well.

 

[Scoe]

Spurs or Heat in 7 games.

 

[rip7774]

I'm going Spurs but rooting for Ray Ray. spurs in 7

Spurs so deep, versatile and have a huge chip on their shoulder. But LeBron is the best player and tough to go against that! Can't wait for the series, really enjoy the NBA playoffs again!

 

[dogfan96]

Spurs in 7. Popovich will have a plan to contain LeBron as much as humanly possible, he always does. There's a reason the Spurs give him more trouble than any other team in the league.

And analytics seem to favor the Spurs as well.

They don't do anything special. They just sag off him and dare him to take long 2-pt jumpers.. and he's not one to do that since it's the lowest efficiency shot on the floor. He stopped thinking and started just playing and dominated in the 4th quarter/OT of Game 6 and all of Game 7.

 

[bmayuc]

This is what it keeps coming down to for me. San Antonio plays at a very high level very consistently, but if both teams are playing their best, Miami can't be beaten. It really just comes down to LeBron. He's too good at every facet of the game at this point. Watching him dominate on the offensive end two years ago before going down and forcing Durant into a bad shot was amazing. I've never seen a player dominate games quite like he does, and that includes you-know-who.

Kemba Walker?

 

[Dogdeacon]

Spurs in 6. San Antonio on a mission!

Also when did they start spreading out the games over several days?

Spurs - Heat are a year older and other than LeBron everyone worse than last year when Spurs had them beat. I think that makes the Spurs hungrier. Given the disparity in conferences I wouldn't be surprised if Spurs won in 5 games, though if betting I'd say 6-7. We may end up saying OKC-Spurs was for the championship

I think the Spurs offense and utilization of players is better than anyone else in NBA. Heat have the most effective player in the series by a lot, but San Antonio wins almost every other matchup.

.

 

[johnhuskies95]

They don't do anything special. They just sag off him and dare him to take long 2-pt jumpers.. and he's not one to do that since it's the lowest efficiency shot on the floor. He stopped thinking and started just playing and dominated in the 4th quarter/OT of Game 6 and all of Game 7.

The Spurs are really good at icing the ball on one side of the floor and then loading up the elbows and wings. You're right, it's not special, but it's effective.

James shot 44% last year in the finals, which is obviously way below what he shoots against other teams.

 

[champs99and04]

I've been watching a lot of footage from last years finals on NBA TV over the past couple days. One thing that jumped out at me was just how damn good of a defender Chris Bosh is. He can force Duncan into reasonably tough shots on the block and then switch onto Parker on the perimeter and contain him. Miami is a whole other animal when compared to Oklahoma City because of their versatility - LeBron and Bosh can literally guard all five positions (Bosh more so in moderation, obviously you don't want him guarding Parker for the full 48). Oklahoma City, aside from Ibaka, had nobody like that. Unlike Oklahoma City, Miami can switch ball screens late in games without leaving themselves vulnerable to mismatches. Whereas San Antonio largely generated what they wanted, whenever they wanted against the Thunder, against Miami they're a bit more dependent on individual heroics late in the shot clock. The Spurs are definitely capable of making those plays, but the degree of difficulty is far higher.

Also, I know it isn't exactly a unique or unprecedented strategy to force LeBron into mid-range jump shots, but the Spurs take it to a whole over level. They give him acres of space out there and aren't at all afraid of switching bigger defenders like Duncan onto him or even smaller guys like Parker, because their entire defense against James is predicated on clogging the paint. Pop probably looks at a player like James and thinks like this: LeBron does a lot of things well as a player, but he kills you the most when he's A) getting to the rim, and B) dicing up the defense and locating shooters. LeBron is lethal in those two areas, and when you're up against a great player, you can't take away everything, so you have to eliminate one or two things he does really well. San Antonio doesn't want to allow him to get to the rim, but they also don't want to compromise their defensive structure by over-helping and abandoning shooters. The end result, then, is the Spurs sagging off James and baiting him into jump shots. Normally, that strategy would be ill-advised against an elite jump shooter like LeBron, but when he is so simultaneously overpowering and aware, that's what you have to resort to. And, simple as it sounds, that is what this series comes down to in my eyes: can LeBron (and to a lesser extent, Wade) hit enough jump shots to make the Spurs pay for packing the paint? He definitely did in game seven, games one through six, not as much.

 

[dogfan96]

I've been watching a lot of footage from last years finals on NBA TV over the past couple days. One thing that jumped out at me was just how damn good of a defender Chris Bosh is. He can force Duncan into reasonably tough shots on the block and then switch onto Parker on the perimeter and contain him. Miami is a whole other animal when compared to Oklahoma City because of their versatility - LeBron and Bosh can literally guard all five positions (Bosh more so in moderation, obviously you don't want him guarding Parker for the full 48). Oklahoma City, aside from Ibaka, had nobody like that. Unlike Oklahoma City, Miami can switch ball screens late in games without leaving themselves vulnerable to mismatches. Whereas San Antonio largely generated what they wanted, whenever they wanted against the Thunder, against Miami they're a bit more dependent on individual heroics late in the shot clock. The Spurs are definitely capable of making those plays, but the degree of difficulty is far higher.

Also, I know it isn't exactly a unique or unprecedented strategy to force LeBron into mid-range jump shots, but the Spurs take it to a whole over level. They give him acres of space out there and aren't at all afraid of switching bigger defenders like Duncan onto him or even smaller guys like Parker, because their entire defense against James is predicated on clogging the paint. Pop probably looks at a player like James and thinks like this: LeBron does a lot of things well as a player, but he kills you the most when he's A) getting to the rim, and B) dicing up the defense and locating shooters. LeBron is lethal in those two areas, and when you're up against a great player, you can't take away everything, so you have to eliminate one or two things he does really well. San Antonio doesn't want to allow him to get to the rim, but they also don't want to compromise their defensive structure by over-helping and abandoning shooters. The end result, then, is the Spurs sagging off James and baiting him into jump shots. Normally, that strategy would be ill-advised against an elite jump shooter like LeBron, but when he is so simultaneously overpowering and aware, that's what you have to resort to. And, simple as it sounds, that is what this series comes down to in my eyes: can LeBron (and to a lesser extent, Wade) hit enough jump shots to make the Spurs pay for packing the paint? He definitely did in game seven, games one through six, not as much.

Bosh's defense is definitely underrated.. he's one of the better pick-and-roll defenders in the league. And that's where the Spurs really make their money.
In the 4th quarter of Game 6, LeBron just started playing and making everything.. he had like 14 pts in the 4th/OT. He has to fight his natural inclination to not take bad shots (or like you said make enough of them to force the Spurs to re-think their strategy). In Game 7, he was just making everything. On those nights he's making his jumpers, you're pretty much just gonna lose.

 

[gampelcrazies]

Spurs in 6

 

[CallMeBruce]

I've been watching a lot of footage from last years finals on NBA TV over the past couple days. One thing that jumped out at me was just how damn good of a defender Chris Bosh is. He can force Duncan into reasonably tough shots on the block and then switch onto Parker on the perimeter and contain him. Miami is a whole other animal when compared to Oklahoma City because of their versatility - LeBron and Bosh can literally guard all five positions (Bosh more so in moderation, obviously you don't want him guarding Parker for the full 48). Oklahoma City, aside from Ibaka, had nobody like that. Unlike Oklahoma City, Miami can switch ball screens late in games without leaving themselves vulnerable to mismatches. Whereas San Antonio largely generated what they wanted, whenever they wanted against the Thunder, against Miami they're a bit more dependent on individual heroics late in the shot clock. The Spurs are definitely capable of making those plays, but the degree of difficulty is far higher.

Also, I know it isn't exactly a unique or unprecedented strategy to force LeBron into mid-range jump shots, but the Spurs take it to a whole over level. They give him acres of space out there and aren't at all afraid of switching bigger defenders like Duncan onto him or even smaller guys like Parker, because their entire defense against James is predicated on clogging the paint. Pop probably looks at a player like James and thinks like this: LeBron does a lot of things well as a player, but he kills you the most when he's A) getting to the rim, and B) dicing up the defense and locating shooters. LeBron is lethal in those two areas, and when you're up against a great player, you can't take away everything, so you have to eliminate one or two things he does really well. San Antonio doesn't want to allow him to get to the rim, but they also don't want to compromise their defensive structure by over-helping and abandoning shooters. The end result, then, is the Spurs sagging off James and baiting him into jump shots. Normally, that strategy would be ill-advised against an elite jump shooter like LeBron, but when he is so simultaneously overpowering and aware, that's what you have to resort to. And, simple as it sounds, that is what this series comes down to in my eyes: can LeBron (and to a lesser extent, Wade) hit enough jump shots to make the Spurs pay for packing the paint? He definitely did in game seven, games one through six, not as much.

Bosh is wildly underrated, which is his reward for taking less money to go to Miami to win, and for not bitching about shots. He plays out of position and bangs bodies when they need him to, he plays great D, he hits shots when they come to him, and he plays his ass off. He's an easy target because he had the weakest pedigree of the "Big 3" coming in, and he's clearly taken the third spot with that group.

 

[UCONNfan1]

I predict Heat in 6 but am rooting for the Spurs big time. I sure hope I'm wrong!!

 

[pnete]

Spurs in 6. San Antonio on a mission!

Also when did they start spreading out the games over several days?

Are Spurs planning to guard the greatest three point shooter in history when they are up three with seconds remaining - this year?

 

[Chin Diesel]

Heat in 7.

 

[Strummer]

Spurs in 7. Popovich will have a plan . . .

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" Iron Mike Tyson (greatest heavyweight boxer ever).

 

[Chin Diesel]

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" Iron Mike Tyson (greatest heavyweight boxer ever).

Great quote, but he's not top 5. Because once he got punched in the mouth he never won another fight of significane. Irony from Iron Mike.