Navy opens at -7 1/2 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Navy opens at -7 1/2

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shizzle787 said:
Part of me thinks Diaco was preparing for this game the whole summer, and the Maine preparation lacked as a result. Either way, given our next three opponents, I wouldn't be surprised if we were 4-0 going to Houston.
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This was actually my thought as well.
 
Palatine said:
Navy played almost a perfect game against us last year and won by 10 points.

They scored a TD with 2 seconds left in the first half finishing a 77 yard drive in 3 minutes and 20 seconds. Very fast for them. That was a huge momentum builder for them.

They fumble twice and recovered both. We fumbled once and lost it. Perfect for them.

Reynolds gained more than half their yardage and scored three TDs. He's gone. As is the entire the starting line from last year.

They were 8-12 (66%) on third down.

They scored 4 TDs on 5 red zone trips. (80%).

It was one of those games where everything seemed to go right for Navy and just a little wrong for us. We had similar first downs and yardage numbers but they finished and we didn't. We both averaged exactly 5.2 yards per play. I don't expect any of their numbers to be as good next Saturday. I expect them to regress toward the mean. This is a very winnable game.
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I echo Pal's remarks: This game sets up like the game against the Middies in UConn's first year of bowl eligibility (the year before UConn joined the Big East Football Conference). That bowl deserving team (we stayed home as the bowls didn't want to take a chance on an independent newbie) went in to Annapolis and Danny O. torched them. Sherriffs is not Dan O. but UConn has the talent to win this game if its offense can get into gear. As Biz Law said in his View thread, I'm hoping that the offense hat we saw in the 4th quarter is indicative of UConn's true nature. Sherriffs has to get his secondary receivers involved & not just be targeting Noel Thomas.
 
coachcap said:
I echo Pal's remarks: This game sets up like the game against the Middies in UConn's first year of bowl eligibility (the year before UConn joined the Big East Football Conference). That bowl deserving team (we stayed home as the bowls didn't want to take a chance on an independent newbie) went in to Annapolis and Danny O. torched them.
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Sets up like 2002...the resemblance is uncanny...I mean it's downright spooky.
In 2002, UConn visited a Navy team that was 1-8 in Coach Johnson's first year. Added to the two previous seasons, on a 2-28 run.
Looks exactly like seniors who have gone 29-11 and won 3 straight bowls, and are in Coach Niumat's 8th year with THE most stable staff in FBS.

Oh, wait, actually this sets up more like 2006, when we came into Storrs 3-1 on the season, 29-11 in the seniors' experience, with a QB (Hampton) who was a first-year starter after waiting his turn behind Owens and Polanco. The seniors also knew what it took to persevere through a long season and finish ranked: '04 team hit double digit wins and finished ranked #24. '06 was Johnson's 5th season, so the program was definitely an ongoing system.

Yeah, that's what this game sets up like...what happened in '06?
 
slhNavy91 said:
Sets up like 2002...the resemblance is uncanny...I mean it's downright spooky.
In 2002, UConn visited a Navy team that was 1-8 in Coach Johnson's first year. Added to the two previous seasons, on a 2-28 run.
Looks exactly like seniors who have gone 29-11 and won 3 straight bowls, and are in Coach Niumat's 8th year with THE most stable staff in FBS.

Oh, wait, actually this sets up more like 2006, when we came into Storrs 3-1 on the season, 29-11 in the seniors' experience, with a QB (Hampton) who was a first-year starter after waiting his turn behind Owens and Polanco. The seniors also knew what it took to persevere through a long season and finish ranked: '04 team hit double digit wins and finished ranked #24. '06 was Johnson's 5th season, so the program was definitely an ongoing system.

Yeah, that's what this game sets up like...what happened in '06?
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I was waiting for someone to point this out. Like Diaco's comment that Navy has been good for 20 years.....
 
whaler11 said:
I was waiting for someone to point this out. Like Diaco's comment that Navy has been good for 20 years.....
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Navy was VERY bad for several of the years at the front end of Disco's 20 years.
It's only since 2003 that we have been in a Golden Age for Navy Football (the Johnson-Niumatalolo-Jasper Era)
 
Entire key is D this week. We have to stop the option first, second and third, then defend the pass. If we play bend don't break - don't give up the big play with the defensive backfield playing cushion coverage, they will systematically eat us alive in the absence of aggressive run support. We also desperately need inside penetration to blow up timing.
 
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I'm doesn't matter but I'm pretty sure UConn was eligible to play in a bowl in 2002 (even though they won 6) when they beat Navy. It was 2003 they were bowl eligible and got passed over at 9-3.
 
By game time I would expect this line to be about -3 Navy which with home field advantage is essentially and even game. If Tago Smith had not been injured I would have expected it to be about -6 Navy. The backup QB is not nearly as dynamic a runner and takes away from the things that Navy can do. Smith may have been a better runner than Keenan Reynolds but neither Tago Smith or the backup run the triple option with the various laterals as well as Keenan who was a magician at that offense. Nor do I think the defense at Navy is as good as it was last year, the two defensive linemen Sera and Anthony were seniors and both were explosive experienced players and Clement was the best defensive back and was dismissed from the team. Should be an interesting game.
 
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NEforceUConn said:
You probably know the lineup better than I. I see Diggs, Joseph, and Walsh start as the LBs with Levenbury coming in on the 3x4? I heard Diggs name a lot, Joseph and Walsh very occasionally, but don't remember Levenbury get called. But Levenbury looked good and got decent pt?

I am hoping to hear Cam Stapleton's name a lot more in the future, but is he up for it?
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In the 2nd half Walsh (Mike) and Levenberry (Will) got a lot of PT together. It couldn't have been fatigue only ... HCBD did a lot of experimenting in the 3rd quarter.
 
Huskyforlife said:
The bold is a huge factor for me. This isn't just some average team, they're an average team with an extremely unorthodox style of offense which can be very difficult to game plan for. This game is away from home for us. Our offense struggled against a presumably much worse defense.

Don't get me wrong, we can definitely pull this out, but I wouldn't put money on it.
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True, the option gives teams fits as it has given us in the past. But they will be relying on an inexperienced QB and therein lies our best opportunity for a win. The D needs to stop the fullback dive and hit the QB each and every time he comes down the LOS. Make him pitch the ball. Being inexperienced he will likely make some mistakes resulting in turnovers, maybe even a defensive score or two. The corners and safeties must make plays near the LOS. Solid tackling all day imperative. I think playing in front of the home crowd may actually put more pressure on the Navy QB.
 
coachcap said:
I echo Pal's remarks: This game sets up like the game against the Middies in UConn's first year of bowl eligibility (the year before UConn joined the Big East Football Conference). That bowl deserving team (we stayed home as the bowls didn't want to take a chance on an independent newbie) went in to Annapolis and Danny O. torched them. Sherriffs is not Dan O. but UConn has the talent to win this game if its offense can get into gear. As Biz Law said in his View thread, I'm hoping that the offense hat we saw in the 4th quarter is indicative of UConn's true nature. Sherriffs has to get his secondary receivers involved & not just be targeting Noel Thomas.
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You're off a year. We beat Navy right before beating Iowa State to get to 6-6. It was the next year, at 9-3, that was the year we went to the Big East and when we should have gotten a bowl bid.
 
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businesslawyer said:
You're off a year. We beat Navy right before beating Iowa State to get to 6-6. It was the next year, at 9-3, that was the year we went to the Big East and when we should have gotten a bowl bid.
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Maybe I used the wrong terminology. I said bowl deserving. Should have typed bowl eligible (6-6).
 
jbdphi said:
Amazing (to me) how much it has moved already. Like an initially mis-priced security.

So if we assume degen money is smart money, they don't seem to be taking too much from the Maine game.
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There was no line on the Maine game. So it's hard to use it as a betting gauge for Navy.
 
businesslawyer said:
You're off a year. We beat Navy right before beating Iowa State to get to 6-6. It was the next year, at 9-3, that was the year we went to the Big East and when we should have gotten a bowl bid.
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We were still independent the 9-3 year (2003). The following year (2004) we went to Big East and played the Motor City Bowl beating Toledo 39-10.
 
Huskyforlife said:
We could hardly beat a below average FCS team at home, and people think we're gonna beat Navy? Hope ya'll are right, but I don't see it.
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By the transitive property, UConn is the National Champion in football.
 
jbdphi said:
Amazing (to me) how much it has moved already. Like an initially mis-priced security.

So if we assume degen money is smart money, they don't seem to be taking too much from the Maine game.
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Navy QB injury announcement...
 
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I think it's a toss up game given the QB injury. UConn really needs a win and a confidence boost. Navy is perceived as being stronger than it actually is, and I think it would be an eye opening road win, that could help us carry momentum. A win against Navy and 4-0 heading to Houston is realistic. A loss and we could be 2-2, or worse. Need confidence for the UH, Cinci, USF stretch of the schedule.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I think it's a toss up game given the QB injury. UConn really needs a win and a confidence boost. Navy is perceived as being stronger than it actually is, and I think it would be an eye opening road win, that could help us carry momentum. A win against Navy and 4-0 heading to Houston is realistic. A loss and we could be 2-2, or worse. Need confidence for the UH, Cinci, USF stretch of the schedule.
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Agree.
 
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BNich said:
This quote from Diaco would seem to echo the OP's thoughts as well as my own.

Mike Anthony ‏@ManthonyCourant 5h5 hours ago
Diaco on preparing for triple option in one week: "Impossible." Part of preseason camp devoted to it, though.
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I was thinking this was one reason BC was able to slow down GT. They had fall camp to prepare. Much tougher task later in the season with only one week.
 
Agreed
ShakyTheMohel said:
I was thinking this was one reason BC was able to slow down GT. They had fall camp to prepare. Much tougher task later in the season with only one week.
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Agreed. Since Diaco has gotten here he has maintained pretty much the same thought and regards to game planning for the triple option. When it is so different from 90% of the main stream schemes you will play in a season, it takes a lot to prepare for it.
 
Covers.com has it down to 3.5 with 72% of the public betting Navy. Maybe Whaler or someone can help me out here - if the line opens at 7.5 and the vast majority of the public are on the favorite, why is the line trending down?
 
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