It's not that far-fetched, but I think you have to start with the fact that there are 351 D-1 teams. That means "realistic" takes on a different meaning than it might in another sport. Realistic could mean 1 in 50. It could mean 1 in 1,000. That part is all subjective - technically, one could argue that I have a realistic chance to be the head coach this season.
That being said, I know what you mean, so I won't make this a semantics war. New Hampshire does not have a realistic shot at the title. South Florida does not have a realistic shot at the title. Of the 351 teams, I'd wager that only 20% or so have what it takes to get half way there (i.e., winning 3 of the 6 games). People who are better at math than me can do the explaining better, but whatever algorithms Vegas uses to spit out odds are synced to some standard deviation that identifies the point at which there is a quantum shift in probability. If we were below that line, you wouldn't have books placing us at 80 to 1 (and I know more contributes to those odds than pure probability), which is good for about 35th in the country. There have been plenty of teams over the last handful of years that have fallen below that threshold and been very much in the championship mix.
A scenario absolutely exists where this team wins the national championship and I'll give you five basketball reasons:
1. Jalen Adams might be the best player in college basketball - I'm serious about this. This is very much in play, and it is something that - even without any other context - is a strong indicator of a team with championship ability.
2. Mamadou Diarra might be the best kept secret in college basketball - Every year, there is a kid like this who is just talented enough to generate interest but not physically imposing or productive enough to merit name recognition. Last year this guy was Josh Patton of Creighton, who, like Diarra, red shirted and then burst onto the scene.
3. Terry Larrier might be a lot better, a lot sooner, than people expect - The potential exists for him to be among the best players in the nation. It is a lot to ask, considering he's coming off major knee surgery and has only played a season and some change, but he fits the prototype of the sort of player that bursts onto the scene as a heralded prospect and then re-surfaces years later as the polished gem everybody thought he was going to be. Think Kris Dunn.
4. Alterique Gilbert and Christian Vital might be the top back court in the AAC - Notice that there is the possibility for our back court to be very good without the guy I just said might be the best player in the country. Gilbert - a McDonald's all-American a year removed from the start of a terrific freshman campaign - boasts a profile in eerie compliance with college basketball's greatest cheat code: small dudes who are supremely talented, not tall enough to go to the NBA, and, because of that handicap, smarter and hungrier than the guys ticketed as freshman phenoms. Vital, following a freshman season that rivaled many UConn greats, tracks as an all-conference type talent moving forward and is built to function as just the low-maintenance shooter and defender that tends to complete a team.
5. Kevin Ollie might finally be coaching the team he wants to coach - This cannot be overstated. The five players I just highlighted compose a unit marked by quickness, skill, and veracity. They will be stung by their limitations in size and experience, but their very presence - at a time when it hasn't been that fun to be a UConn basketball player - communicates an unspoken belief in the system that, for the first time in years, will measure the aggregate of player strength and not weakness.
Last year, I hoped Jalen Adams would be the best player in college basketball. Last year, I hoped Juwan Durham was the best kept secret in college basketball. Last year I hoped Larrier would be Kris Dunn and the seniors would take the reigns and Ollie would adapt. Instead, Adams was a year away, Durham never got off the run-way, the three seniors left unceremoniously, and Ollie jammed the square into the round hole.
But that's sports. Sometimes you call heads five straight times and draw five straight tails'. Hell, I didn't call anything. I just guessed. That's what the bystanders are typically resigned to, though, be it me or the countless number of analysts who won't have the Huskies in their preseason top 25. This year is no different. I have no damn clue what is going to happen. I just know what might happen. And I know that this could happen. The players and the coaches know it to. It's why from them exudes a calm incompatible with the storm of uncertainty that surrounds them. They know something you don't.
