National Freshman of the Year | The Boneyard

National Freshman of the Year

DefenseBB

DefenseBB

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Along with the numerous conference and limited player of the year candidates, I have also been keeping stats for the high profile freshman, usually the HoopGurlz top 10 and any noted names who shine (I track 15). So, while Dawn Staley had made some comments about Joyce Edwards and the fine year she's been having of late (please note she's really only blossomed after Ashlyn Watkins went down.), the actual race for FOY is between Sarah Strong and Mikayla Blakes of Vanderbilt. Mikayla has been in the news of late due to two high scoring games but she's been having a strong year for Shea. I use the Games Score efficiency calculations to create a per game score based on the season stats. For example, on Sunday, Sarah had a score of 29 and her season average score is 24.4 (which is 6th in the whole country). Joyce Edwards by comparison had a nice game score with 20 but her season average is 14.3, well below Sarah and honestly not worthy of any NFOY discussion. From a Her Hoop Stat Win Shares, Sarah leads the whole country at 6.0 with Hannah Hidalgo 2nd at 5.9 and Paige is 3rd at 5.7.

That said, Sarah is clearly the front-runner for National Freshman of the Year with Mikayla Blakes a distant second but getting nice press. Mikayla has a Win Share of 4.8.

Here is the list of Top Freshman, school, HoopGurlz rank, Efficiency Score and Win Share.

BY NFOY 2025.JPG
 
Great minds think alike @DefenseBB. I've started a poll/form for us to have fun with, after the regular season is over. I'll wait until then before posting stats. Stay tuned!
 
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Are these awards decided before the conference tournaments and/or before the NCAA tournament? Or after?
 
I haven't seen Blakes or the Michigan girls play this year. Aside from Sarah, the other three I did see play are Edwards, Cambridge and Fournier. My pick (if it weren't for Sarah) out of those three is Cambridge and it isn't even close. She does it all on both sides of the ball. Of course Sarah is my pick.
 
ERWUC65 said:
Are these awards decided before the conference tournaments and/or before the NCAA tournament? Or after?
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Def before the NCAA tournament. Not sure about the conference tournament, but I believe it's a regular season award
 
AzzisBraids said:
Strong is the frontrunner but Blakes and her 50 point games will make pundits give her looks. She's been impressive but Strong's performances against elite competition edge out even the fiftiest of performances.
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I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
 
Some stats from the NCAA WOMEN's Basketball Stat webpage (2/19/2025):
Mikayla Blakes FG % 46.71 3 point % 32.00 FT % 88.40 rb/g 3.38 assists
80 T.O. 78 stl 66 blocks 8 P fouls 65 games 26 DQ 1
Sarah Strong FG % 57.37 3 point % 36.70 FT % 77.08 rb/g 8.04 assists
92 T.O. 43 stl 63 blocks 38 P fouls 42 games 27 DQ 0
So, one issue is PPG which I would need to check again but I think it
is something like Blakes 23.04 ppg and Sarah 16.9 ppg.
I saw a stat on some pop up that had Sarah in the 100th Percentile on
some analytic for defensive rating. That being in the top 1 % for all
division I players ( all classes: Freshman through graduate players ! ) but
I cannot vouch for the reliability of that stat or the source. INTERESTING, HUH!
Don't forget to vote for Sarah and Paige on the HOOP HALL AWARDS.. once
a day!
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
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But who did Vandy play besides them. I believe UCONN still has a stronger strength of schedule. Can't just compare conference. If Sarah played as many minutes as Blakes, she may have 50 too.
 
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Geew1992 said:
But who did Vandy play besides them. I believe UCONN still has a stronger strength of schedule. Can't just compare conference. If Sarah played as many minutes as Blakes, she may have 50 too.
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Indeed, Blakes plays in a stronger conference, but Strong has played a stronger schedule. Massey has UConn's overall strength of schedule at 15th in the nation; Vandy's is 28th. (This ranking takes into account games already played and games still to come in the regular season so UConn is getting "dinged" for the rest of its Big East schedule and Vandy is getting credit for its remaining games vs. OK and South Carolina.)
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
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That’s a good point. Of course, the high point in Vandy’s remaining schedule is SC, and Sarah has already had an impressive performance against them. The pressure will really be on Blakes to do something comparable. If Raven & Co shut her down, it won’t do much for her case. Still, she had good games against other ranked teams, including Texas, though not against LSU.
 
Jaml said:
I haven't seen Blakes or the Michigan girls play this year. Aside from Sarah, the other three I did see play are Edwards, Cambridge and Fournier. My pick (if it weren't for Sarah) out of those three is Cambridge and it isn't even close. She does it all on both sides of the ball. Of course Sarah is my pick.
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Another comparison of Stats.... from the OSU and UCONN sports pages 2/19/2025
Cambridge 5' 7" guard Sarah's numbers are on the second line:
minutes per game 27 FG 42.2% 3' 28.5 % FT 73.3 PPG 15.2 RB 4.6 Personal F 51 assists 50 TO 45 Stl 28 bl 4
Minutes 28.2 FG 57.4 % 3' 36.7 % FT 77.1 PPG 16.1 RB 8.0 fouls 42 Ass 92 TO 42 Stl 63 Bl 38
So the difference is Rebounding Assists, Turnover ( and the ratio) steals and Blocks. GO SARAH!!!
 
Bone Dog said:
That’s a good point. Of course, the high point in Vandy’s remaining schedule is SC, and Sarah has already had an impressive performance against them. The pressure will really be on Blakes to do something comparable. If Raven & Co shut her down, it won’t do much for her case. Still, she had good games against other ranked teams, including Texas, though not against LSU.
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That is going to be a must watch game. It's a home game for Vandy, so that's a plus and we all will, of course, root for Vandy, but the side game here of great interest is how SC defends Blakes. Can't wait!
 
I think that the thumb injury Sarah sustained had affected her offensive production, and I am hopeful all of that is now a thing of the past.

As I recall, there was very little interview questions asked about it at all, nor comments. She just showed up one game with a splint on her thumb and played through as if it was a non-factor; nobody even questioned it. Next game, same thing with the thumb brace, and then the next game again.

She didn't have that brace on last Sunday against the Red Roosters, and her offensive production was outstanding. Let's hope and pray that it really is a non-factor for the rest of the season!

These three games with the thumb thing however ....

Depaul, 11 pts
Providence, 7 pts
St. Johns, 2 pts

um, those games were the ones that let others into the race with her that would not otherwise have been even close.
 
Jaml said:
I haven't seen Blakes or the Michigan girls play this year. Aside from Sarah, the other three I did see play are Edwards, Cambridge and Fournier. My pick (if it weren't for Sarah) out of those three is Cambridge and it isn't even close. She does it all on both sides of the ball. Of course Sarah is my pick.
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Since TOBY FOURNIER is mentioned I checked her stats on the Duke web page: # 35, leading scorer for DUKE!
Sarah stats are better than Toby's in all Categories! Toby's ppg is 13.4 and her assist to t.o. ratio is 8/41 (not
a misprint). I was suprised that she only as 5.2 rebounds/game to Sarah's 8.0 and 31 blocks to Sarah's 38.
The #2 scorer for Duke is Ashlon Jackson, right behind Toby. Sarah leads the Freshman pack, so far! Go
Sarah!
 
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One thing to note: this group of freshman is ridiculously good. Maybe not quite as good as last year's, but they're up there as being one of the strongest classes ever.

A couple of other names who deserve attention:
Liv McGill at Florida is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists on 42/33/72 shooting splits
Kiyomi McMiller at Rutgers 19/5/3 on 42/33/83 shooting splits
Kennedy Smith is averaging 10 ppg for USC and is a great defender
Britt Prince at Nebraska averages 13/4/3 on 42/33/89 shooting splits


All that said, I'd pick Strong over Blakes if I could only have one on my team, but right now I'd pick Blakes over Strong for NFOY. Strong is having a great year but the load Blakes is carrying with her level of volume and efficiency are unbelievable for a freshman. She's very good on both sides of the ball and has played quite well in almost all of Vandy's big games (ex. 23 points and game winner vs. Tennessee, 33 in a win vs Alabama, 22 vs. Texas and 24 vs. Kentucky). Multiple 50 point games has never been accomplished by anyone. She's playing well in big games and consistently delivers regardless of who she's up against. Blakes is currently 6th in the country in scoring, averages 27.5 ppg in SEC play and has led Vanderbilt to its best season in over a decade.

Also worth noting, when you look at who has won NFOY in the past, team success isn't a top factor. All winners have been on NCAA Tournament teams, but about half came from squads that didn't have a shot of making the Final Four, and many lost the first weekend. I don't see team success being relevant among voters considering Sarah plays with much more talented teammates than Blakes does.
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
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There are some key shifts here, my OP was Strong's performances against elite competition have eclipsed Blakes. There's no arguing whether the SEC or Big East is tougher, the SEC is by a lot. However this is a Freshman of the Year award, not a who plays in the roughest conference award. Sarah Strong is the #1 recruit on a surging UConn team that has the is #1 in the NET. Sarah Strong also leads all women's college basketball players in Win Shares. She's the best freshman on one of the best teams.

Blakes has been formidable, she's broken records with her performances and single handedly helped beat a Tennessee team that UConn lost against.

If Blakes starts showing out vs top talent, she will have a strong case to grab at least one of those many awards but Sarah is the front runner unless me, ESPN, and everybody else is just disillusioned.
 
AzzisBraids said:
There are some key shifts here, my OP was Strong's performances against elite competition have eclipsed Blakes. There's no arguing whether the SEC or Big East is tougher, the SEC is by a lot. However this is a Freshman of the Year award, not a who plays in the roughest conference award. Sarah Strong is the #1 recruit on a surging UConn team that has the is #1 in the NET. Sarah Strong also leads all women's college basketball players in Win Shares. She's the best freshman on one of the best teams.

Blakes has been formidable, she's broken records with her performances and single handedly helped beat a Tennessee team that UConn lost against.

If Blakes starts showing out vs top talent, she will have a strong case to grab at least one of those many awards but Sarah is the front runner unless me, ESPN, and everybody else is just disillusioned.
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I think that here is an article somewhere on the BONEYARD?? from a webpage
called "FAN SIDE". The article was written by CHELSEA LEITE. In the
Article she compares: Sarah, Joyce Edwards (USC GAMECOCKS) and
Mikayla Blakes. One of the points the writer makes is SARAH's
"DEFENSIVE RATING" of "66.4...in the 100th percentile nation-wide
(regardless of class/age)". So does anyone on the BONEYARD have
some insight into the "TRUE" relevance of this stat?? I don't trust
all ANALYICS when they don't come with some explanation... by
someone " in the know". GO SARAH!!
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
Expand ...
UConn still has a stronger strength of schedule
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
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I am really getting tired of people disparaging UConn (not enough quad 1 wins) or in this case Sarah because they are in the BE. It's a little like saying you are not very good because the people living on your street are not very good. Not fair or causal. I don't think "far superior" is accurate except in comparing conferences, not strength of schedule.
 
I don’t have a problem with Blakes winning. Two 50+ point games? Wow. I am not sure Sarah can do that. But it is really hard to compare the two because of the very different circumstances that they play in.

I would probably vote for Sarah. But if blakes wins it; so be it. I won’t be a UConn fan on twitter complaining about how Sarah or the program have been disrespected. I won’t be in that camp.
 
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Stagnant said:
I don’t have a problem with Blakes winning. Two 50+ point games? Wow. I am not sure Sarah can do that. But it is really hard to compare the two because of the very different circumstances that they play in.

I would probably vote for Sarah. But if blakes wins it; so be it. I won’t be a UConn fan on twitter complaining about how Sarah or the program have been disrespected. I won’t be in that camp.
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Just to put into context: some of the comparable stats:
Mikayla Blakes 5' 8" guard total points (as of last week / Sunday) 599 pt
Sarah 6' 2" Forward total points (as of last week /Sun) 435 pt.

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE Mikayla 56.00%
FG % for Sarah 57.37% ! the picture changes!
Mikayla was 199 made field goals for 426 field goals ATTEMPTED.
Sarah was 179 made field goals for 312 field goals attempted.
Mikayla Blakes: three point % was 56 three pointers made for 175 attempted: 32%
S. Strong: three point % was 40 three pointers made for 109 attempted: 36.70%
Mikayla gets to the free throw line the same amount as Sarah: 164 attempts EACH
Mikayla is a better free throw shooter 88.41 % to Sarah's 77.08 %
So, Mikayla is not a " better" shooter than Sarah... but she shoots MORE and
gets more points from the Charity Stripe: 145 free throws made vs Sarah's 37.
On defense there is NO COMPARISON: Sarah 217 rebounds to Mikayla's 88.
with 8.0 rebounds per game for Sarah; 3.38 rebounds/game for Mikayla.
Assists are 92 for Sarah 80 for Mikayla. T.O. 43 for S.; 78 for M = big difference favoring S. (i.e. assist to turnover ratio). Steals are almost equal 63 for Sarah, 66 for Mikayla. Blocks are in Sarah's favor: 38 to 8.
So, breaking down the numbers they are both outstanding. But Sarah does have essentially the same offensive % as Mikayla, but Sarah has Defensive stats that are superior to Mikayla's. (Rebounds, Blocks,). If you want high volume points = go for Mikayla (and she will win games as in Vanderbilt's recent O.T. win with Mikayla resetting her freshman PPG record. If you want something BOTH
offensive and defensive... I would go with Geno's choice: SARAH STRONG.
I got the numbers from the NCAA web page: stats. (For the week ending SUNDAY, February 14th.) If I made any errors let me know!
I would not mind Mikayla BLAKES winning either... but I don't think
she should win solely on PPG. (not that you were exactly saying that). I just
wanted to add a little "context" and a broader stat comparison. GO BONEYARD!
 
Well then, considering all the comments regarding Blakes, I would expect Vandy to beat SC at home with her putting up 25 points in the win. Nuf said...
 
I've been thinking all year that Strong should be getting consideration for Player of the Year (see the Win Shares in the first post). Neither she nor Bueckers is going to beat out Watkins or Hidalgo, but they should be getting some votes.

Strong (222 rebounds) also has a chance to break Tina Charles' school freshman rebound record of 296. She'll almost certainly get up to at least third place.
 
Interesting discussion, thanks for all the stats.

If we look at recent winners, it tends to be scoring based vs occasional 'all around play on a good team' choice. I'm not sure what material the voting writers sort through to make their choice. The media hype likes those big scoring games.

I'm happy with either Strong or Blakes; nice for Vandy/Shea:)

2024 JuJu USC scoring
2023 Latson FSU scoring
2022 Morrow Depaul scoring/rebounding
2021 Bueckers/Clark all around/scoring
2020 Boston SC all around
2019 Howard KY scoring
 
Cornell Lt said:
I would argue that the competition that Blakes faces in the SEC ( 4 games vs top 25 plus two more top 25 games on the horizon) is far superior to the competition that Sarah faces in the Big East. I'm rooting for Sarah but Blakes has a lot going for her also
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If the award was conference freshman of the year your comment would fit but it's a national award. Strong has played UNC, NDame, USC, Tenn, SCar, Creighton1 & Creighton2 and most likely Creighton3. That's 8 ranked teams and I wouldn't be surprised if Louisville becomes top 25. I'm sure others have better resume's but not "far superior".

Massey lists Vandi's current SOS as 33 and projects 28 at the end of the season.

Massey lists UConn's current SOS as 11 and projects 15 for the season.
 
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