My last two thoughts for today | The Boneyard

My last two thoughts for today

B

businesslawyer

Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
23,949
Reaction Score
20,779
I thought we would beat Duke in '90 and '04. I didn't think we had a realistic chance in '91. In '99, I was absolutely confident we were very close to as good as Duke, and could beat them, but I can't say I knew we would beat them. Today's game is new ground for this much anticipated rematch a full generation in the making. Given their neutral court win over Michigan, and that I have always been more about record and less about margins, wire to wire Duke has been the best team in the country this year and outperformed us. I think we can beat them, subject to the one key of the game I'm about to get to, but I can't say we should beat them or that we're as good. The odds someone posted yesterday that we would be expected to win 1 out of 3 sounds realistic to me. (And know that I don't make predictions because my track record is when I do so UConn loses.)

So having thought about what's going to determine if we come out winners or losers, and while acknowledging that there are a score of things that may affect the outcome (coaching, desire, the health of both side's injured players, shooting, etc.), I really think there is one overwhelming key to the game and it's fouls. Duke has a huge positive margin in net fouls and free throws, and we're probably the only team ever to be as good as we are with a material negative margin. We can overcome Duke getting 10 or 12 more free throws then us -- we've been overcoming that all year -- but if we have to make up a margin of 20 or more points from the line, or if we have key players whose minutes are curtailed because of foul trouble (primarily Reed and Karaban) and they don't have the same issues, it's going to be very hard to overcome. I don't like my single biggest key to be in the hands of the zebras (yes, I know, zebras don't have hands) but there we are.

Go Huskies. We're about to enter the time where I stop being coherent as raw nerves take over.
 
businesslawyer said:
I thought we would beat Duke in '90 and '04. I didn't think we had a realistic chance in '91. In '99, I was absolutely confident we were very close to as good as Duke, and could beat them, but I can't say I knew we would beat them. Today's game is new ground for this much anticipated rematch a full generation in the making. Given their neutral court win over Michigan, and that I have always been more about record and less about margins, wire to wire Duke has been the best team in the country this year and outperformed us. I think we can beat them, subject to the one key of the game I'm about to get to, but I can't say we should beat them or that we're as good. The odds someone posted yesterday that we would be expected to win 1 out of 3 sounds realistic to me. (And know that I don't make predictions because my track record is when I do so UConn loses.)

So having thought about what's going to determine if we come out winners or losers, and while acknowledging that there are a score of things that may affect the outcome (coaching, desire, the health of both side's injured players, shooting, etc.), I really think there is one overwhelming key to the game and it's fouls. Duke has a huge positive margin in net fouls and free throws, and we're probably the only team ever to be as good as we are with a material negative margin. We can overcome Duke getting 10 or 12 more free throws then us -- we've been overcoming that all year -- but if we have to make up a margin of 20 or more points from the line, or if we have key players whose minutes are curtailed because of foul trouble (primarily Reed and Karaban) and they don't have the same issues, it's going to be very hard to overcome. I don't like my single biggest key to be in the hands of the zebras (yes, I know, zebras don't have hands) but there we are.

Go Huskies. We're about to enter the time where I stop being coherent as raw nerves take over.
Expand ...
I agree. I think it comes down to foul trouble/foul shot disparity, and outside shooting. We are very good when our 3 point shooting is in the 40% neighborhood. We are very bad when it isn’t. (Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s losses)
 
Supposed to start the trek home from FLA today, trying to figure whether I want to delay as long as possible and watch here, or stop somewhere on the road. I'm leaning toward the long delay.
 
.-.
Giddyup5 said:
Sadly I agree with you.

I just hope we aren’t talking about the refs tonight.

Let the better team today win the game.
Expand ...
From the games I have seen I think Potter may be the only Big East ref available and he is very good.
 
AllHusky said:
Supposed to start the trek home from FLA today, trying to figure whether I want to delay as long as possible and watch here, or stop somewhere on the road. I'm leaning toward the long delay.
Expand ...
I used to split my drives to and from FL into multiple days because I hated being in a car so long. If I were in your shoes I would be delaying and watching the game from FL, then stopping somewhere around 11pm to stay the night lol
 
.-.
AllHusky said:
Supposed to start the trek home from FLA today, trying to figure whether I want to delay as long as possible and watch here, or stop somewhere on the road. I'm leaning toward the long delay.
Expand ...

We were in Sedona for the regional finals in '14 and missed our flight home out of Phoenix because I refused to leave the room until the game was over. Was a fun car ride to the airport.
 
I think we have a one in three shot.

What scares me the most....

1) The team that gets the worst whistle in organized sport playing the team that gets the best whistle. I can see us with five players with two fouls before the under 12.
2) Boozer
3) One of our big guys having one of their inexplicably bad games.

We can have one of those three things go wrong and still win. It gets really dicey if two of them happen and it gets ugly if all three happen.
 
temery said:
Historically, The boneyard has a hell of a lot more boozers than Duke.

My kidneys require me to be sober. Everyone else better do their damn job.
Expand ...
IMG_2587.jpeg
 
.-.
1) Boozer’s entire game is getting a friendly whistle. Other than that, Duke is not a great team. St. John’s would have won by 10 if Boozer got called for even half the charges/travels that he deserved.
2) UConn is a great team when it plays its offense. We are maybe a Top 25 team when we descend into ISO ball. Stick with the offense.
 
UConn will go on a run at some point in the game

The refs will be a factor

We're going to need some heroic play from Karaban, Mullins, Ross and Solo.

Reibe will in foul trouble so Reed is going to have to play smart

We can win this game, we just have to hit our shots

This won't be a big disparity at the foul line, they'll get more opportunities, but it won't be ridiculous.

Go UConn
 
At this point it’s a mental game. Keep the game close, maintain confidence, and our experienced players can do this down the stretch. Don’t want to have to climb back up any mountains in this one. Duke gets 25 to 10 on the free throws we have a problem.
 
jibsey said:
At this point it’s a mental game. Keep the game close, maintain confidence, and our experienced players can do this down the stretch. Don’t want to have to climb back up any mountains in this one. Duke gets 25 to 10 on the free throws we have a problem.
Expand ...
Something tells me we win by double digits. You heard it here first.
 
.-.
We are +5.5 against them today. Hopefully we tire them out with our constant motion on offense. Let’s get Boozer in some foul trouble because the rest of the team I feel we match up well. If we play D like we have been this tournament, and the refs let them play, we win.
Let’s punk Duke. 💪
 
Husky Alien said:
We are +5.5 against them today. Hopefully we tire them out with our constant motion on offense. Let’s get Boozer in some foul trouble because the rest of the team I feel we match up well. If we play D like we have been this tournament, and the refs let them play, we win.
Let’s punk Duke. 💪
Expand ...
Dunk Puke
 
Fishy said:
I think we have a one in three shot.

What scares me the most....

1) The team that gets the worst whistle in organized sport playing the team that gets the best whistle. I can see us with five players with two fouls before the under 12.
2) Boozer
3) One of our big guys having one of their inexplicably bad games.

We can have one of those three things go wrong and still win. It gets really dicey if two of them happen and it gets ugly if all three happen.
Expand ...

Freaking crazy.

First half, all three went wrong.

Second half, like two of the three kinda went wrong until it didn't.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,093
Messages
4,552,960
Members
10,435
Latest member
DukeBlue


Top Bottom