The Duke formula is:
1. Figure out what seed Duke has earned.
2. From one of the following conferences: AAC, Big East, MWC, and A10, find a team seeded higher than Duke that you've slated to play in North Carolina. This year: Louisville.
3. Swap Duke and that weaker conference's team so that Duke gets the North Carolina game.
4. Scan the potential 16 seeds for a team that Duke should beat and move that team up to whatever spot would face Duke. This year: Mercer. In years past: Lehigh.
5. Watch as your plan backfires.