More PAC-16 stuff

[nelsonmuntz]

Are you claiming that the lawsuit is the reason we still have a BCS bid? How can you posssibly be that deluded?

Additionally, and more to your initial point that litigation will keep the B-12 together (and that the BE's being 100% successful
with their lawsuit was evidence that the B-12 will be successful), are you claiming that the B-12 without three of the northern schools (those you claimed would be scared off by a lawsuit) would no longer be able to keep thier BCS bid? If this is not your claim please explain what your comment that I quoted meant.

I am not going to get sucked into one of your shape shifting arguments where your position changes post to post.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Quick question, would it be in the Big East football schools best interest to Join what would be left of the Big 12 conference under the Big 12 name? The Big 12 has an auto BCS bid that they wouldn't lose if they added the Big East schools, and Basketball schools keep the Big East name and keep the NCAAs autobid an the much discussed basketball credits (truth be told I don't even know how those work).

Would the Big 12 be able to offer more money per team than the BE under their current television deal?

Either way, the TV deal would start from scratch, so joining the Big 12 or staying in the Big East wouldn't matter from that standpoint. I don't believe the autobid would be protected since the old Big 12 would not have 6 teams that had been together for greater than 5 years. The Big 12's autobid is likely history.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I really don't get this. Why is the Big East better or more financially successful with either Iowa State or Baylor?

More importantly, while many see the need to do something, no matter what the something is, I am not sure what there is to be gained to allow Kansas, K State and Mizzou in. Would I love them in as replacements for departing football schools, if there are any? Absolutely. But in the absence of that, why? How does that increase revenue per school? Why does that make us better? And don't tell me championship game, unless you are willing to say everyone who ridicules the ACC Championship game (which should be ridiculed) is an idiot. What will make ours successful if theres is not?

I tend to agree, although I would like Kansas. As for the rest, my bias is also to wait. If the dominoes start falling quickly, and there are 4 super conferences being formed, why be tied down by a bunch of schools 1,100+ miles away? Kansas, KState and the rest will be there later if we want them.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I am not going to get sucked into one of your shape shifting arguments where your position changes post to post.

I'm the one who is changing my argument?

You claimed that KU, KSU, ISU et al would be too concerned with litigation to consider leaving the B-12. I stated that a settlement with minimal if any damages was all anyone needed to be concerned with but moren importantly that the B-12's future was tied into what OU and UT end up doing, not KU, KSU and ISU.

You claimed that the BE's lawsuit against the ACC was 100% successful. I pointed out that a few home and home football series and possibly (as I don't remember the full details) minimal financial compensation was the settlement. Your response was the BE's BCS status is evidence that they won the lawsuit.

Keep moving in circles. The truth is that you earlier claims were all dead wrong.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'm the one who is changing my argument?

You claimed that KU, KSU, ISU et al would be too concerned with litigation to consider leaving the B-12. I stated that a settlement with minimal if any damages was all anyone needed to be concerned with but moren importantly that the B-12's future was tied into what OU and UT end up doing, not KU, KSU and ISU.

You claimed that the BE's lawsuit against the ACC was 100% successful. I pointed out that a few home and home football series and possibly (as I don't remember the full details) minimal financial compensation was the settlement. Your response was the BE's BCS status is evidence that they won the lawsuit.

Keep moving in circles. The truth is that you earlier claims were all dead wrong.

I never said the Big 12 north teams would be too concerned about litigation to do anything. I said that if one or more of these schools ends up without a home where they are getting paid, there is a decent chance there will be litigation and they may have a case. If Iowa State loses $200 million in TV revenue over the next 10 years because A&M's departure busted up the Big 12, they are going to be pissed.

The BE's lawsuit was primarily to put everyone on notice that the Big East was not going down without a fight. Virtually all the chatter at the time was that the Big East BCS bid was history, but at the end of the day, the other 5 leagues didn't pull it. Do you think they let the Big East keep it because the other 5 leagues wanted to be nice? They were afraid of litigation.

 

[Excalibur]

I never said the Big 12 north teams would be too concerned about litigation to do anything. I said that if one or more of these schools ends up without a home where they are getting paid, there is a decent chance there will be litigation and they may have a case. If Iowa State loses $200 million in TV revenue over the next 10 years because A&M's departure busted up the Big 12, they are going to be pissed.

The BE's lawsuit was primarily to put everyone on notice that the Big East was not going down without a fight. Virtually all the chatter at the time was that the Big East BCS bid was history, but at the end of the day, the other 5 leagues didn't pull it. Do you think they let the Big East keep it because the other 5 leagues wanted to be nice? They were afraid of litigation.

There is an exit and penalty clause in the Big 12 contract, correct? If so, that's troublesome for your TI claim. Several jurisdictions, including some of those in the states of Big 12 member institutions, limit TI damages to contract damages. Frame the exit clause as liquidated damages (pretty easy to do) and the TI claim goes away vis-a-vis the conference and its members.

*Edit* I posted before finishing -- got distracted by real work and lost track of where I was. The Big 12 could make the claim that the interference was with the TV contract. The B12 would really need ESPN to cooperate in such a claim, which is far from certain at this point.

 

[uconNYC]

I hope KSU is not brought in just because they are in the same state as KU. Houston and UCF would probably be better options in terms of TV Markets, Recruiting and travel partners for USF/TCU.

 

[ZooCougar]

I think Mizzou might hold out for the SEC. If that happens then KU, KSU and Baylor/ISU/SMU etc.. might be options.

I could also see the remaining Big 12 schools trying to hold onto what they've got and try to rebuild with a mix of Conf USA/MWC/WAC even.. Sort of like what the Big East did. They have the bid...

I don't think threat of litigation will stop any moves. All of this can be settled out of court.

What a mess.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is an exit and penalty clause in the Big 12 contract, correct? If so, that's troublesome for your TI claim. Several jurisdictions, including some of those in the states of Big 12 member institutions, limit TI damages to contract damages. Frame the exit clause as liquidated damages (pretty easy to do) and the TI claim goes away vis-a-vis the conference and its members.

*Edit* I posted before finishing -- got distracted by real work and lost track of where I was. The Big 12 could make the claim that the interference was with the TV contract. The B12 would really need ESPN to cooperate in such a claim, which is far from certain at this point.

The Big 12 would not need ESPN to cooperate. They would simply have to show a before and after, and make the case that Texas A&M was the causative factor in the loss, which would probably be easy to do since ESPN would have to give reason for termination of the television agreement under that contract. The Big 12 leftovers would like cooperation from Oklahoma and Texas, since the ESPN termination will likely cite those schools' departure as a reason for termination.

The place I am most familiar with TI claims is when one company raids an office or division of another company. You used to see this on Wall Street a lot where one IBank would take an entire industry coverage group from another IBank. It happens in recruiting, insurance brokerage, and virtually any business that is essentially a sales office type business. There is occasionally litigation around these moves, and the plaintiffs often win, even when the moves in question were technically legal by the groups moving. This A&M/SEC situation looks a lot like raiding an office of a competitor.

I agree that it often comes down to the contract. In many of the examples I gave above, there are often non-compete or other restrictive clauses that form the basis of a claim, but generally the defendant's think they have taken appropriate procedural steps to protect themselves, otherwise they would never have made the moves in the first place. In my experience, the procedural steps are helpful, but not necessarily determinative.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think Mizzou might hold out for the SEC. If that happens then KU, KSU and Baylor/ISU/SMU etc.. might be options.

I could also see the remaining Big 12 schools trying to hold onto what they've got and try to rebuild with a mix of Conf USA/MWC/WAC even.. Sort of like what the Big East did. They have the bid...

I don't think threat of litigation will stop any moves. All of this can be settled out of court.

What a mess.

The litigation threat dramatically increases the cost of making the move though. Do you know anyone that has tried to get a job when they have a non-compete agreement, no matter how unenforceable? I have known a couple of situations where the components of the non-compete made it clearly invalid, but no employer was willing to bother with the risk until it had expired.

I tend to agree with you that the SEC will probably still add A&M, but if a lawsuit comes, it will freeze further expansion.

 

[pepband99]

The litigation threat dramatically increases the cost of making the move though. Do you know anyone that has tried to get a job when they have a non-compete agreement, no matter how unenforceable? I have known a couple of situations where the components of the non-compete made it clearly invalid, but no employer was willing to bother with the risk until it had expired.

I tend to agree with you that the SEC will probably still add A&M, but if a lawsuit comes, it will freeze further expansion.

How? If OU and Texas and some dingleberries move west, problems with A&M and the SEC become moot. The perception of the Bevo10or9 being dead in the water might be enough to make all of this happen, regardless.

 

[Excalibur]

The Big 12 would not need ESPN to cooperate. They would simply have to show a before and after, and make the case that Texas A&M was the causative factor in the loss, which would probably be easy to do since ESPN would have to give reason for termination of the television agreement under that contract. The Big 12 leftovers would like cooperation from Oklahoma and Texas, since the ESPN termination will likely cite those schools' departure as a reason for termination.

You've got a causation issue there. You need to establish that A&M's departure was a proximate cause of OU and Texas' independent decision to leave the B12, since that would likely be pointed to as the event that caused ESPN to back out. Given that there were a bunch of possibilities available after A&M made their announcement, I think that's a pretty big hurdle.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You've got a causation issue there. You need to establish that A&M's departure was a proximate cause of OU and Texas' independent decision to leave the B12, since that would likely be pointed to as the event that caused ESPN to back out. Given that there were a bunch of possibilities available after A&M made their announcement, I think that's a pretty big hurdle.

Our corporate attorney has always told me that you don't want to be the one that looks like the bad guy if you go into litigation. Not exactly a deep legal analysis, but generally a pretty accurate one. The causative is a hurdle, but the biggest fact would be that the Big 12 schools had a contract that guaranteed them $200 million each over the next 10 years, and now they don't.

I think a very realistic outcome here is also that the Big 12 leftovers can't find a home. The Big East basketball schools went bananas last time the football schools proposed adding the Big 12 North, and I don't see much changing. I also see the football schools becoming less aggressive now because the huge Comcast deal is hanging out there for the league as it is currently structured. Why mess with a good thing? Missouri is a possibility to the SEC, but I think the SEC is more likely to look east than west for a 14th member, and I don't think it is a done deal that the SEC even goes to 14.

If the 5 Big 12 schools are stuck, they will have two assets: a BCS bid and a few decent programs. I think they do the same thing the Big East did in 2003, grab the best regional programs not in a BCS league, Boise and BYU, and build around it with whatever quality they can scrape together. I could see them adding Boise, BYU, Houston, SMU and Colorado State. That conference is a marginal BCS league, but with the threat of litigation hanging over the SEC, a relatively high quality of basketball enabling them to get a decent TV deal, and the reluctance of conference commissioners to start a stampede to superconferences, I could see that league surviving.

 

[gars44]

Our corporate attorney has always told me that you don't want to be the one that looks like the bad guy if you go into litigation. Not exactly a deep legal analysis, but generally a pretty accurate one. The causative is a hurdle, but the biggest fact would be that the Big 12 schools had a contract that guaranteed them $200 million each over the next 10 years, and now they don't.

I think a very realistic outcome here is also that the Big 12 leftovers can't find a home. The Big East basketball schools went bananas last time the football schools proposed adding the Big 12 North, and I don't see much changing. I also see the football schools becoming less aggressive now because the huge Comcast deal is hanging out there for the league as it is currently structured. Why mess with a good thing? Missouri is a possibility to the SEC, but I think the SEC is more likely to look east than west for a 14th member, and I don't think it is a done deal that the SEC even goes to 14.

If the 5 Big 12 schools are stuck, they will have two assets: a BCS bid and a few decent programs. I think they do the same thing the Big East did in 2003, grab the best regional programs not in a BCS league, Boise and BYU, and build around it with whatever quality they can scrape together. I could see them adding Boise, BYU, Houston, SMU and Colorado State. That conference is a marginal BCS league, but with the threat of litigation hanging over the SEC, a relatively high quality of basketball enabling them to get a decent TV deal, and the reluctance of conference commissioners to start a stampede to superconferences, I could see that league surviving.

I think that's an excellent analysis. The only conference that seems to want to expand is the P12. Since every pairing in the P12 model is going to have a regional network all their own, the LHN fits in with it as long as it includes TT. Whether TX goes anywhere depends on how much OU wants to get away from them. I don't believe that what TX and OK decide is going to affect us much. And we have a good thing going in the BE right now, as long as two things happen: (1) Everybody sits tight and doesn't panic; (2) we continue to provide a home for ND sports other than football. The minute ND loses a home for its other sports is the minute they have to start looking around: B10 or ACC. And they will have to take with them either Pitt or Syr, maybe a block of 4, and that is the end of the BE. Other than that, the B10 is happy right now, the ACC is happy, as long as ND is happy, the BE is going to be happy. We need ND to survive as an independent in football, because if the time comes that they need a conference, the BE implodes.

 

[upstater]

I think that's an excellent analysis. The only conference that seems to want to expand is the P12. Since every pairing in the P12 model is going to have a regional network all their own, the LHN fits in with it as long as it includes TT. Whether TX goes anywhere depends on how much OU wants to get away from them. I don't believe that what TX and OK decide is going to affect us much. And we have a good thing going in the BE right now, as long as two things happen: (1) Everybody sits tight and doesn't panic; (2) we continue to provide a home for ND sports other than football. The minute ND loses a home for its other sports is the minute they have to start looking around: B10 or ACC. And they will have to take with them either Pitt or Syr, maybe a block of 4, and that is the end of the BE. Other than that, the B10 is happy right now, the ACC is happy, as long as ND is happy, the BE is going to be happy. We need ND to survive as an independent in football, because if the time comes that they need a conference, the BE implodes.

ND is not the one that will choose which team comes with them to join the Big10 (ND isn't going to the ACC). The Big10 will decide that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think that's an excellent analysis. The only conference that seems to want to expand is the P12. Since every pairing in the P12 model is going to have a regional network all their own, the LHN fits in with it as long as it includes TT. Whether TX goes anywhere depends on how much OU wants to get away from them. I don't believe that what TX and OK decide is going to affect us much. And we have a good thing going in the BE right now, as long as two things happen: (1) Everybody sits tight and doesn't panic; (2) we continue to provide a home for ND sports other than football. The minute ND loses a home for its other sports is the minute they have to start looking around: B10 or ACC. And they will have to take with them either Pitt or Syr, maybe a block of 4, and that is the end of the BE. Other than that, the B10 is happy right now, the ACC is happy, as long as ND is happy, the BE is going to be happy. We need ND to survive as an independent in football, because if the time comes that they need a conference, the BE implodes.

You are right about Notre Dame. I have always felt that the Big East should have kicked ND out, but the way things worked out, Notre Dame is right where we want them to be. An independent in football, with more than a rooting interest in the Big East's survival in its current format.

 

[ZooCougar]

Gars,

I think the SEC wants to expand. They are just guarding their hand. Go back to Skiblets' "Dick in a Box" scenario. Texas A&M is going about this by the book. First they make themselves free agents, and then the SEC picks them up.

I think the ACC/Big 10/Big East are liking the status quo. It wouldn't shock me if those three just decide to keep their powder dry and let the PAC 16 go ahead with this madness.

How do you stave off litigation from the remaining Big 12 schools? Strike a deal to let them keep the Big 12 BCS bid and allow them to reload just like the Big East did.

Isn't it funny how conferences just don't mean jack anymore?

 

[ZooCougar]

You are right about Notre Dame. I have always felt that the Big East should have kicked ND out, but the way things worked out, Notre Dame is right where we want them to be. An independent in football, with more than a rooting interest in the Big East's survival in its current format.

This is another reason why I see the ACC/Big 10/Big East want to keep the status quo. Notre Dame is a stakeholder in maintaining things as they are. They will use their influence to assure this.

The ACC still looks bad from it's unsavory raid and basically opening this Pandora's Box. I don't think that the core players in the conference want more expansion. The Big 10 are also avid traditionalists. The Big East will play along with any scenario that lets them continue own.

 

[ZooCougar]

The litigation threat dramatically increases the cost of making the move though. Do you know anyone that has tried to get a job when they have a non-compete agreement, no matter how unenforceable? I have known a couple of situations where the components of the non-compete made it clearly invalid, but no employer was willing to bother with the risk until it had expired.

I tend to agree with you that the SEC will probably still add A&M, but if a lawsuit comes, it will freeze further expansion.

That's why they have to leave the Big 12 completely before they join another conference. I don't see it as being a seamless move from one to the other. Legally they may have to be an independent for at least a second or two LOL.

I am sure they have a pretty sharp legal team that has mapped the way forward.

 

[junglehusky]

Just to play the devil's advocate... given the recent actions of the B1G (adding Nebraska) and SEC (courting TAMU and flirting with others), I'm not entirely convinced that those guys are committed to the status quo. The conference leadership might be perfectly happy with current membership / contracts, but if the school presidents start thinking it's an arms race, they might get trigger happy.

 

[ZooCougar]

Big 10 probably thought Nebraska or Notre Dame should be in the conference all along. Sort of like a Manifest Destiny.

I don't believe that the SEC wants the status quo. Or it could be that they want A&M because they think they might lose a member. But that would be crazy. I would think the SEC wouldn't raid the ACC because Swofford is the SEC's lapdog, sort of like Marinatto is the Big 10's lapdog.

 

[gars44]

Gars,

I think the SEC wants to expand. They are just guarding their hand. Go back to Skiblets' "Dick in a Box" scenario. Texas A&M is going about this by the book. First they make themselves free agents, and then the SEC picks them up.

I think the ACC/Big 10/Big East are liking the status quo. It wouldn't shock me if those three just decide to keep their powder dry and let the PAC 16 go ahead with this madness.

How do you stave off litigation from the remaining Big 12 schools? Strike a deal to let them keep the Big 12 BCS bid and allow them to reload just like the Big East did.

Isn't it funny how conferences just don't mean jack anymore?

Yes, I think so too, but not beyond A&M and one other. It could be TX, it could be MO. But ACC schools like VT and FSU don't want to go, and there are no other profitable candidates. It is a byproduct of our television culture that these mergers and acquisitions have moved from wall street to college football. It's a new internet boom, every generation needs one. When they read the profit/loss statements in a few years, we'll see how all these investments turned out.

 

[Dann]

pac+tex/tt/ok/okst
sec+tam/kansasst/ncst/vt
bigteleven+mizzu/kansas, saving #15/16 for a ND splash.
b12-baylor/ist by themselfs right now
be-adds fsu/gt/clemson/uva/md, that gives the be 14, left out the mess for now(tobacco rd/the u/bc)
b12 dicides to make a conf to try to save bcs tag for baylor/ist. adds some schools/merges with mwc/wac to form a "rockies mountains conf" with the bcs tag...
-idaho/newmex/sanjose/ are left to form a small wac type conf out west...
-the be now needs 1, maybe more. makes finals adds and gets huge payday.
-nova says no to football for good
-the be needs a 16th --uab or another southern school-a project with huge $ potential, maybe see if vandy would skip town becuase of academics and the payout being almost the same? -maybe temple? etc etc
-the be wants 2 fl schools not 3, sorry miami, wake has no tv for us and bc is not cutting it any more. those 3 look to build the acc back for the bcs tag purposes.
-the acc quickly gets to 14 to keep bcs tag, they will lose that tag the next renewal date look over. the rmc will keep there's. so for a couple years while bc/miami still think they are important they will have bcs but it will quickly go away.

-the pac is now done(16)= pac+tex/tt/ok/okst
-the sec is now done(16)= sec+tam/kansas/ncst/vt
-the big10 is now(14) = big10+kansas st/ist(polotics from iowa)/mizzu
-the rmc now has(16)= baylor/tcu/smu/uh/ist/byu/sdst/unlv/wy/utahst/colost//fresno/hawaii/latech/arkst
-the be now done(16)= uconn/cuse/ruty/pitt/wvu/cincy/lville/usf+ uva/md/clem/gt/fsu/duke/unc/? lets say uab
-the acc now has (14)= bc/wake/miami/ucf/ecu/umass/marsh/memphis/rice/tulane/south miss/tulsa/utep/temple
everything else trickles down from there fball wise. the a10/be bball onlys combine and whate ever else...

 

[junglehusky]

Rather than start a new thread, I'll put this here... the Rice Owls marching band got in a nice little jab at TA&M. (In case you can't make it out, it's a $ in place of S). I guess this counts as playing to the crowd, since it was at a UT game.

 

[epark88]

The Rice Mob's entire halftime show was a hoot...