If we lost our last two and Xavier wins their last game we would be the 5-seed because they would have a slightly better winning percentage.
Monday, March 1st Update NET: 36 KenPom: 29 BPI: 26
- Thread starter BFieldHusky
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Yea as others have said we could still fall to 5 but since Xavier lost they can't get to the 3 so if we win tonight we lock up 3.
After Xavier loss, our seed probability:
The permutations where we are the 5:
| 3 | 68.18% |
| 4 | 27.03% |
| 5 | 4.79% |
The permutations where we are the 5:
| Hall over UConn | 0.51 | Johnnies | 0.57 | GTown over UConn | 0.2 | Xavier over Marq | 0.47 | Johnnies | 0.47 |
| Hall | 0.51 | Prov | 0.43 | GTown | 0.2 | Xavier | 0.47 | Johnnies | 0.47 |
| Hall | 0.51 | Johnnies | 0.57 | GTown | 0.2 | Xavier | 0.47 | Hall | 0.53 |
| Hall | 0.51 | Prov | 0.43 | GTown | 0.2 | Xavier | 0.47 | Hall | 0.53 |
And we can still get the 3 with loss tonight if we beat Gtown and Hall loses to St. John's.
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Agree with that! Actually I prefer making ALL at-larges play in. At-large teams are the Texas of college basketball. They don’t win anything yet they expect to get into the tournament through the goodness of the committee because they need help. If I could make 1 other rule it would be to limit bids to a max of 4 per league. Make teams really have to battle down the final weeks. Imagine how intense the Big would be this week if every team was battling for only 4 slots instead of potentially 9.
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crazyUCfan23
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How would that work if all at-larges had to play in?
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Exactly. Basically a two horse race for third but we have a one game lead
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A max of 4 bids per league would populate the tourney with MANY bad teams, do you want 3 NEC teams in the field to reach the 68? Gonzaga & Michigan could be at-large teams if don't win conf tourney and not worthy by your logic.
The Tourney is fairly perfect as is....every division 1 cbb team has a chance to win the National Championship by winning their conference tourney. The at-large teams (for the most part) are the best teams not to win their conference tourney.
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This from Jerry Palm. So does that render many of the posts in this thread moot?
Q: "Why is [insert your team here] seeded in your bracket much lower than its metrics?"
Talk to the Palm: Because metrics aren't that important. To see what is important, read this link here.
But here is a relatively recent example. In 2017, Wichita State fans were killing me because I had them squarely on the bubble while it was in the top 10 in KenPom. The Shockers won the MVC Tournament, ended up 8th in KenPom's rankings and earned a 10-seed in the bracket. If all you have is metrics, you have nothing. The resume has to back it up.
Even Ken Pomeroy thinks using his metrics in the selection process is a bad idea. At a meeting we attended when the NCAA was exploring replacing the RPI, he told the NCAA folks that they should not use his ratings because he is not measuring what they are trying to reward.
www.cbssports.com
Q: "Why is [insert your team here] seeded in your bracket much lower than its metrics?"
Talk to the Palm: Because metrics aren't that important. To see what is important, read this link here.
But here is a relatively recent example. In 2017, Wichita State fans were killing me because I had them squarely on the bubble while it was in the top 10 in KenPom. The Shockers won the MVC Tournament, ended up 8th in KenPom's rankings and earned a 10-seed in the bracket. If all you have is metrics, you have nothing. The resume has to back it up.
Even Ken Pomeroy thinks using his metrics in the selection process is a bad idea. At a meeting we attended when the NCAA was exploring replacing the RPI, he told the NCAA folks that they should not use his ratings because he is not measuring what they are trying to reward.
Talk to the Palm: Bracketology mailbag explores the race to No. 1 seeds in 2021 NCAA Tournament
Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm answers your questions about the top seeds in March Madness
www.cbssports.com
