Monday, March 1st Update NET: 36 KenPom: 29 BPI: 26

[Kolumbo]

 

[Ewekon]

The AP poll shows UConn at 37th.
Prescription: just keep winning.
One game at a time.

 

[Ewekon]

No doubt.

This should be an interesting snap shot in time of coach DH.

Has to figure out a way to ride the best scorer in BE. Tactical moves will matter and I cannot wait to see him meet the challenge.

Because

The team as constructed is still not legacy level. Takes time. If Bouk is healthy. Ya know?

Lead on DH.

(Not a blast at Coach at all)

 

[jibsey]

No doubt.

This should be an interesting snap shot in time of coach DH.

Has to figure out a way to ride the best scorer in BE. Tactical moves will matter and I cannot wait to see him meet the challenge.

Because

The team as constructed is still not legacy level. Takes time. If Bouk is healthy. Ya know?

Lead on DH.

(Not a blast at Coach at all)

No one says legacy but 37? Cmon.

 

[BFieldHusky]

With Xavier losing last night, @4xChamps, I am correct in assuming we either can be the 3 or 4 seed next week? I don't think we can fall to the 5 now.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

I just don't see how we're on the bubble from an analytics perspective. I didn't dive in the Q1/Q2 records. UConn has the best Net/Kenpom/BPI of any of Lunardi's last 4 in and the best average of the 3 by 8 spots!

	NET	Kenpom	BPI	Average​
UConn​	34​	28​	26​	29​
Louisville​	49​	44​	49​	47​
Georgia Tech​	40​	30​	40​	37​
VCU​	36​	50​	61​	49​
Drake​	41​	52​	64​	52​
Seton Hall​	52​	45​	41​	46​
Michigan St​	71​	60​	67​	66​
Xavier​	53​	56​	46​	52​

 

[pepband99]

The AP poll shows UConn at 37th.
Prescription: just keep winning.
One game at a time.

Pet peeve.

The AP Poll has 25 spots, and shows us unranked.

Counting votes and making up a ranking is soooo AAC.

 

[Get a Job]

With Xavier losing last night, @4xChamps, I am correct in assuming we either can be the 3 or 4 seed next week? I don't think we can fall to the 5 now.

According to mred's Big East MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker, we can still get a 5-seed. However, based on the probabilities people were sharing yesterday, and the fact that Xavier lost since then, I'd imagine the odds are extremely high that we get the 3 or 4.

 

[businesslawyer]

No one says legacy but 37? Cmon.

The AP doesn’t report them as 37. Know why? Because once you get past the Top 25, one voter has so much influence that the AP doesn’t think it’s meaningful to keep ranking.

I only barely understand people worrying about anyone’s rankings but the Committee’s. But to worry about a ranking that doesn’t exist because the AP itself doesn’t think going past 25 is statistically meaningful ....

 

[navery12]

With Xavier losing last night, @4xChamps, I am correct in assuming we either can be the 3 or 4 seed next week? I don't think we can fall to the 5 now.

If we lose out and Xavier wins they'll be 7-6 and we're 9-8 so they finish ahead as the 4 by percentage points

 

[Peacefrog]

With Xavier losing last night, @4xChamps, I am correct in assuming we either can be the 3 or 4 seed next week? I don't think we can fall to the 5 now.

If we lost our last two and Xavier wins their last game we would be the 5-seed because they would have a slightly better winning percentage.

 

[NJHusky]

There’s no real diff between 4/5. They play each other in the quarterfinal. Only benefit is being 3

 

[6xChamps]

With Xavier losing last night, @4xChamps, I am correct in assuming we either can be the 3 or 4 seed next week? I don't think we can fall to the 5 now.

Yea as others have said we could still fall to 5 but since Xavier lost they can't get to the 3 so if we win tonight we lock up 3.

 

[auror]

After Xavier loss, our seed probability:

3	68.18%
4	27.03%
5	4.79%

The permutations where we are the 5:

Hall over UConn	0.51	Johnnies	0.57	GTown over UConn	0.2	Xavier over Marq	0.47	Johnnies	0.47
Hall	0.51	Prov	0.43	GTown	0.2	Xavier	0.47	Johnnies	0.47
Hall	0.51	Johnnies	0.57	GTown	0.2	Xavier	0.47	Hall	0.53
Hall	0.51	Prov	0.43	GTown	0.2	Xavier	0.47	Hall	0.53

 

[auror]

Yea as others have said we could still fall to 5 but since Xavier lost they can't get to the 3 so if we win tonight we lock up 3.

And we can still get the 3 with loss tonight if we beat Gtown and Hall loses to St. John's.

 

[freescooter]

The only seed I don’t want us to get is 8/9, would much rather get a 10-16 seed. Don’t want to play a #1 on the second day.
Edit: Should’ve said “would rather get a 10-15.”
Not even sure that’s right since the tourney is at 68 teams. I will say this, I’d prefer going back to 64 teams. No play-in’s.

Agree with that! Actually I prefer making ALL at-larges play in. At-large teams are the Texas of college basketball. They don’t win anything yet they expect to get into the tournament through the goodness of the committee because they need help. If I could make 1 other rule it would be to limit bids to a max of 4 per league. Make teams really have to battle down the final weeks. Imagine how intense the Big would be this week if every team was battling for only 4 slots instead of potentially 9.

 

[crazyUCfan23]

Agree with that! Actually I prefer making ALL at-larges play in. At-large teams are the Texas of college basketball. They don’t win anything yet they expect to get into the tournament through the goodness of the committee because they need help. If I could make 1 other rule it would be to limit bids to a max of 4 per league. Make teams really have to battle down the final weeks. Imagine how intense the Big would be this week if every team was battling for only 4 slots instead of potentially 9.

How would that work if all at-larges had to play in?

 

[6xChamps]

And we can still get the 3 with loss tonight if we beat Gtown and Hall loses to St. John's.

Exactly. Basically a two horse race for third but we have a one game lead

 

[Hi-Low]

Agree with that! Actually I prefer making ALL at-larges play in. At-large teams are the Texas of college basketball. They don’t win anything yet they expect to get into the tournament through the goodness of the committee because they need help. If I could make 1 other rule it would be to limit bids to a max of 4 per league. Make teams really have to battle down the final weeks. Imagine how intense the Big would be this week if every team was battling for only 4 slots instead of potentially 9.

A max of 4 bids per league would populate the tourney with MANY bad teams, do you want 3 NEC teams in the field to reach the 68? Gonzaga & Michigan could be at-large teams if don't win conf tourney and not worthy by your logic.

The Tourney is fairly perfect as is....every division 1 cbb team has a chance to win the National Championship by winning their conference tourney. The at-large teams (for the most part) are the best teams not to win their conference tourney.

 

[HooperScooper]

This from Jerry Palm. So does that render many of the posts in this thread moot?

Q: "Why is [insert your team here] seeded in your bracket much lower than its metrics?"

Talk to the Palm: Because metrics aren't that important. To see what is important, read this link here.

But here is a relatively recent example. In 2017, Wichita State fans were killing me because I had them squarely on the bubble while it was in the top 10 in KenPom. The Shockers won the MVC Tournament, ended up 8th in KenPom's rankings and earned a 10-seed in the bracket. If all you have is metrics, you have nothing. The resume has to back it up.

Even Ken Pomeroy thinks using his metrics in the selection process is a bad idea. At a meeting we attended when the NCAA was exploring replacing the RPI, he told the NCAA folks that they should not use his ratings because he is not measuring what they are trying to reward.

Talk to the Palm: Bracketology mailbag explores the race to No. 1 seeds in 2021 NCAA Tournament

Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm answers your questions about the top seeds in March Madness

www.cbssports.com

 

[UconnU]

Need this game tonight. I believe we only have 2 quad 1 wins thus far that’s not enough to feel comfortable