MNT’s 2022 | Page 4 | The Boneyard

MNT’s 2022

meyers7 said:
Forget the Mexico game. Would could win that one and still not qualify for Qatar. That would give us 24 pts

Costa Rica has Canada (Canada's already qualified) at home. Away at El Salvador and USA at home. They could get 9 points put them at 25.

Panama has Honduras at Home, USA Away (the tough one), and Canada at home. 9 points gets them to 26

Mexico has Honduras away and El Salvador at home. Even 4 points there gets them to 25.

Canada picks up even 1 point at home against Jamaica and they are in the top 3.

We really have to beat Panama or Costa Rica. Which really comes to beating Panama at home. And that may only get us to 4th.

(I think the math is right???)
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If we beat Panama, we finish higher than Panama.
If we beat CR, we finish higher than CR.

If we beat Panama and draw CR, we're in.

If we lose to either one, there are other paths. Too many permutations to concisely summarize.
 
businesslawyer said:
So this is the question that Berhalter has a month and a half to ponder. Do you play your best players at Azteca? And risk some of your stars having trouble recovering from playing at altitude and not being ready for the game against Panama in Orlando 72 hours later? Do you bring more players into camp, and leave your entire first team at home and send a B team to Azteca? Or do you try to split the difference, bring your best team to Azteca but only let the Pulisics, Dests, McKinneys, etc. play a half?

I really don't know what the right answer is. But I would be tempted to bring 40 guys into camp and leave your A team in Orlando with players normally outside the pool to practice against and send your second and third units to Azteca.
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I wish Mexico wasn't first. I think Gregg will do what he did this week, split the difference. Some key guys will get rest. Maybe Morris plays for Pulisic and Acosta for Adams. Would need to see the fitness of the guys he has at the time to see who might be able to play all three matches. We have depth in several spots, especially the wing. Anybody who plays vs Mexico would, at most miss Panama, or parts of Panama so figure out what line up you want for that match and go from there.

USA is in pretty good shape, but that was true last time and we blew it. Not counting any chickens this time.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
If we beat Panama, we finish higher than Panama.
If we beat CR, we finish higher than CR.

If we beat Panama and draw CR, we're in.

If we lose to either one, there are other paths. Too many permutations to concisely summarize.
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One more simple-ish one:

If we draw both Panama and CR:
  • Panama would need to win out (doable) and we would need to lose @MEX for them to pass us
  • CR would need to win out and we would need to lose @MEX to tie us on points (and probably still lose on goal diff)

So if we can get a draw at Azteca, then we pretty much just need a draw in both other matches to get in.

Bottom line:
1) Win vs. Panama and draw @CR --> In
2) Draw all 3 matches --> In*
3) Draw Panama and CR --> Clinch 4th* at worst

*unless Panama/CR wins out with a +8 goal diff
 
I may not be officially nervous about missing qualification but, it's in the room as we are the only team playing the other 3 candidates for 2.5 spots. I'd also really like to avoid the playoff.

We most certainly will need a win at home at Panama, (who is all but guaranteed 4 pts vs Hon/Can and maybe 6 if Canada takes the day off) and need 1 pt on the road in places we don't historically do well at a time we have trouble scoring, most likely the last game against Costa Rica.

Panama will likely have 21-23 pts, not including our match.
Mexico will likely have 27, not including our match.
Costa Rica will likely have 19 but could have 20-22 since they have Canada at home.
We have no gimmies left. If we want to guarantee third place, we need beat Panama at home and Costa Rica on the road. If we want to guarantee at least 4th place we need to get a point off of either Mexico or Costa Rica. Three draws would also work, but that is backing in, in my view. Drawing Panama and losing to Mexico would leave us barely in on goal differential with a draw in the final match and just asking to have it stolen at the whistle of the last game. All because we drew at home to Canada and at Jamaica and El Salvador.

Any Concacaf team advancing in Qatar is a longshot. The entire region is down, but if we have dreams of going on a run in 2026, we need to get these youngsters some WC experience.
 
SubbaBub said:
I may not be officially nervous about missing qualification but, it's in the room as we are the only team playing the other 3 candidates for 2.5 spots. I'd also really like to avoid the playoff.

We most certainly will need a win at home at Panama, (who is all but guaranteed 4 pts vs Hon/Can and maybe 6 if Canada takes the day off) and need 1 pt on the road in places we don't historically do well at a time we have trouble scoring, most likely the last game against Costa Rica.

Panama will likely have 21-23 pts, not including our match.
Mexico will likely have 27, not including our match.
Costa Rica will likely have 19 but could have 20-22 since they have Canada at home.
We have no gimmies left. If we want to guarantee third place, we need beat Panama at home and Costa Rica on the road. If we want to guarantee at least 4th place we need to get a point off of either Mexico or Costa Rica. Three draws would also work, but that is backing in, in my view. Drawing Panama and losing to Mexico would leave us barely in on goal differential with a draw in the final match and just asking to have it stolen at the whistle of the last game. All because we drew at home to Canada and at Jamaica and El Salvador.

Any Concacaf team advancing in Qatar is a longshot. The entire region is down, but if we have dreams of going on a run in 2026, we need to get these youngsters some WC experience.
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See above.

W vs. Panama + D @ Costa Rica is enough to get in.

W vs. Panama OR W @ Costa Rica is enough to guarantee 4th.

D vs. Panama + D @ Costa Rica is enough to guarantee 4th unless Costa Rica scores a ton or we get blasted in Mexico

3 draws is enough to get in unless Panama scores a ton in their other matches

We definitely do not need to win both.
 
I’m not sure why everyone thinks Canada is just going to lose matches. They haven’t qualified in how long? They aren’t England or Germany. This is new and they will want to win the group. What is gained by sitting their players? How many of them can they realistically sit anyway? Is the bench that bad? We’ve played most of our matches minus at least 2-3 guys we consider our best players at their positions.
 
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Thoughts on Walker Zimmerman from those who may have more soccer knowledge. Not the quickest and I feel sometimes he is too deliberate. However, he doesn’t make mistakes. I get the feeling he is used for stability against the lower level teams, but his role in bigger games is reduced. I kind of like having him on the field.
 
Third best CB, maybe 4th behind Robinson and Long, maybe Brooks but he's been solid in qualifying when tapped.

Since the rise of the Robinsons, D which was a huge question mark coming into the year hasn't been an issue beyond the odd lapse or experimental squad by GG.

GK has been great thanks to Turner's emergence. Another preseason question mark.

The midfield has been good if unspectacular at times but as a group of 4, we've never had better.

Up front has and will be the issue. We knew we needed a Striker to step up and no one has. We thought we were strong on the outside but CP hasn't been consistent and Reyna has been absent. Both those things need to change.

Last ? is what are we getting from Dest. Doesn't seem in sync with the rest of the team and is the most likely guy to make a mistake when he should be one of our biggest threats. We may go only a well as he does balancing the attack.

GG needs a better plan on offense. This team wants to play more direct. Collectively they play too slow. To much time on the ball, too many touches, poor touches causes them to cough up the ball and all the back/square passing just makes us easier to defend.

Our guys are fast, they can move well. They can't dribble past multiple defenders. Get it upfield, get it wide and get it in the box. Pinball soccer works for us. Dekeing defenders and blasting it from 18 yds out doesn't work for us.
 
SubbaBub said:
Third best CB, maybe 4th behind Robinson and Long, maybe Brooks but he's been solid in qualifying when tapped.

Since the rise of the Robinsons, D which was a huge question mark coming into the year hasn't been an issue beyond the odd lapse or experimental squad by GG.

GK has been great thanks to Turner's emergence. Another preseason question mark.

The midfield has been good if unspectacular at times but as a group of 4, we've never had better.

Up front has and will be the issue. We knew we needed a Striker to step up and no one has. We thought we were strong on the outside but CP hasn't been consistent and Reyna has been absent. Both those things need to change.

Last ? is what are we getting from Dest. Doesn't seem in sync with the rest of the team and is the most likely guy to make a mistake when he should be one of our biggest threats. We may go only a well as he does balancing the attack.

GG needs a better plan on offense. This team wants to play more direct. Collectively they play too slow. To much time on the ball, too many touches, poor touches causes them to cough up the ball and all the back/square passing just makes us easier to defend.

Our guys are fast, they can move well. They can't dribble past multiple defenders. Get it upfield, get it wide and get it in the box. Pinball soccer works for us. Dekeing defenders and blasting it from 18 yds out doesn't work for us.
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Pinball soccer works except for the lack of a target in the middle. McKennie is decent on headers. None of our strikers seem to be. What I wouldn't give for Brian McBride on a team with these wings (and even Dest and and A Rob out wide).

I'm somewhat concerned about physicality. CP, Aaronson, Reyes (if he returns) are not very rugged players. The strategy against our speed seems to be to foul repeatedly, but far enough away from the box that set pieces aren't a threat. Weah seems better able to play through some contact. Pepi has good size but doesn't use it. Sargent isn't well suited to pinball soccer striker target role. I still think Pefok deserves more opportunities.

www.theguardian.com

America’s next top striker: who will be Berhalter’s first choice in Qatar?

The USMNT have rebuilt nicely after a disastrous World Cup qualifying campaign four years ago, but the race to be Gregg Berhalter’s No 9 is wide open
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
HuskyHawk said:
Pinball soccer works except for the lack of a target in the middle. McKennie is decent on headers. None of our strikers seem to be. What I wouldn't give for Brian McBride on a team with these wings (and even Dest and and A Rob out wide).

I'm somewhat concerned about physicality. CP, Aaronson, Reyes (if he returns) are not very rugged players. The strategy against our speed seems to be to foul repeatedly, but far enough away from the box that set pieces aren't a threat. Weah seems better able to play through some contact. Pepi has good size but doesn't use it. Sargent isn't well suited to pinball soccer striker target role. I still think Pefok deserves more opportunities.

www.theguardian.com

America’s next top striker: who will be Berhalter’s first choice in Qatar?

The USMNT have rebuilt nicely after a disastrous World Cup qualifying campaign four years ago, but the race to be Gregg Berhalter’s No 9 is wide open
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Oh this team is light as a feather. That is a huge concern. Someone was asking why no one is standing up for CP when he gets knocked around? My answer is who? Jermaine Jones isn't walking through that door. Zimmerman or Brooks are the only obvious candidates but you wouldn't want your CB picking up unnecessary yellows. Z isn't all that intimidating to begin with. Everyone else is tiny.
 
Honestly, I'm less concerned about who plays striker than I am that our whole is well less than the sum of our parts. Coaches and players need to create a team out of this bunch of players. Hasn't really happened yet. As we've learned, the three straight wins against Mexico aren't what we think they are because, frankly, Mexico is incredibly mediocre as well. They will qualify, but they struggled to the end to beat a ten man Jamaica, and only won at Azteca Wednesday night on an absolutely incorrect penalty.

At this point, arguing among which players should be starting becomes pointless. We can only rationally argue about which players are better. But we have more than enough quality options. This is now far less about our best 11 players and far more about finding the best team out of our quality players.
 
Based on what I've seen, Gio Reyna is a critical piece for us on offense. We also need to keep trying out new strikers.

It would also be good to figure out if Dest can be something less that mercurial in his performances.

I'm pretty good with the rest. I'm almost sold on Zimmerman as an acceptable WC pairing with Mrob, but this next set of games will be the tell. Anyone who plays well throughout is in the Starting XI for me. Absent a big drop in form, Turner has to be our #1.
 
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SubbaBub said:
Based on what I've seen, Gio Reyna is a critical piece for us on offense. We also need to keep trying out new strikers.

It would also be good to figure out if Dest can be something less that mercurial in his performances.

I'm pretty good with the rest. I'm almost sold on Zimmerman as an acceptable WC pairing with Mrob, but this next set of games will be the tell. Anyone who plays well throughout is in the Starting XI for me. Absent a big drop in form, Turner has to be our #1.
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Frankly, I'm wondering how we get more than two of Pulisic, Reyna, Aaronson and Weah on the pitch at one time. Do we see if Weah can handle playing striker? Can one of Pulisic or Aaronson slide back and take Musah's role? If both of those work, then all 4 of them can play together up front with Pulisic and Weston. These are all just WAGs though. But we haven't yet become a team, and we need to find a way to have our forward players work better together.
 
businesslawyer said:
Frankly, I'm wondering how we get more than two of Pulisic, Reyna, Aaronson and Weah on the pitch at one time. Do we see if Weah can handle playing striker? Can one of Pulisic or Aaronson slide back and take Musah's role? If both of those work, then all 4 of them can play together up front with Pulisic and Weston. These are all just WAGs though. But we haven't yet become a team, and we need to find a way to have our forward players work better together.
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Weah has played Striker at club level. And was more effective doing it. I think it's time to try it. I said before I think Reyes should be an attacking CM. I don't want him wasted on the wings, because he showed (pre-injury) he was the one guy who could dribble through traffic and distribute.
 
I hope we get some quality friendlies in the lead up to Qatar
 
businesslawyer said:
So this is the question that Berhalter has a month and a half to ponder. Do you play your best players at Azteca? And risk some of your stars having trouble recovering from playing at altitude and not being ready for the game against Panama in Orlando 72 hours later? Do you bring more players into camp, and leave your entire first team at home and send a B team to Azteca? Or do you try to split the difference, bring your best team to Azteca but only let the Pulisics, Dests, McKinneys, etc. play a half?

I really don't know what the right answer is. But I would be tempted to bring 40 guys into camp and leave your A team in Orlando with players normally outside the pool to practice against and send your second and third units to Azteca.
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Send the B team, basically a defensive team that can park the bus and play for a draw.
 
businesslawyer said:
Frankly, I'm wondering how we get more than two of Pulisic, Reyna, Aaronson and Weah on the pitch at one time. Do we see if Weah can handle playing striker? Can one of Pulisic or Aaronson slide back and take Musah's role? If both of those work, then all 4 of them can play together up front with Pulisic and Weston. These are all just WAGs though. But we haven't yet become a team, and we need to find a way to have our forward players work better together.
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I think based on the schedule/weather for the rest of the year you won't be able to play the same XI every match or keep your best players in for 90 min every match. I think Aaronson can sub for both Pulisic and Renya and make the odd start if one is nicked up. Weah/Arriola are next up, but I don't mind trying Weah at striker, but he hasn't been good at holding possession.
 
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Arriola is the fits the description of activity without accomplishment. We have enough guys who can't finish without playing a guy who can't finish easy chances.
 
LIuconn said:
Pefok scores 2 today but let’s start Morris and Zardes
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Perok and Zardes play in the middle. And yes, Perfok needs to be given a start.

But Morris plays on the wing and I don't think GB ever put him in the middle. BTW, I thought Morris was very solid in the window.
 
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With the current situation at goalkeeper, Horvath playing regularly is a big relief.

I know that Berhalter has a scheme and a plan, but Pefok has to be called into camp right now. He is the only striker we have who can even visualize what scoring a goal is actually like.
 
LIuconn said:
When do they announce the roster?
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the last roster was announced 6 days prior to the game - same timeline this window would be this Friday 3/18.

should see it this week. curcial weeks ahead for the boys. COME ON YOU YANKS!!
 
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