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MLB Playoffs Thread

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zls44 said:
Yeah, they did. And they were nowhere near 99.9%. Deal with it.

Own your failure.
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My failure? I don't recall having any role in the Sox September swoon.

Would love to see you back up your assertions with some facts in terms of the math. Methinks you're talking out of your arse. Standard MO for you.
 
zyron said:
You honestly think the odds of losing 4 games in a row is anywhere near 1 in 278 million?
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Had it ever happened in MLB before or since? Just wondering. I think the Phillies dive in 1964 was worse than the Sox.
 
I'm sure ESPN is already starting production on the 30 for 30 documentary on the Rays epic run to a first round exit in the playoffs.
 
bpo57 said:
Had it ever happened in MLB before or since? Just wondering. I think the Phillies dive in 1964 was worse than the Sox.
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Yeah, never has there been a four game sweep in the history of the playoffs.
 
bpo57 said:
Is that regular season collapse or postseason collapse? I believe you own the latter.
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I believe the latter to be ancient history while yours is obviously fresh on your mind!!
 
bpo57 said:
My failure? I don't recall having any role in the Sox September swoon.

Would love to see you back up your assertions with some facts in terms of the math. Methinks you're talking out of your arse. Standard MO for you.
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Funny how you give him a hard time for saying "your" after you said "Is that regular season collapse or postseason collapse? I believe you own the latter."
 
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zls44 said:
It is statistically harder to do what the 2011 Red Sox did than what the 2004 Yankees did. It is, by any objective measure, a far greater collapse.

Accept it.
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I'm curious as to how statistically possible it is for a team to go basically forever before finally winning another world series and then their fan base behaves as if winning two in nine decades is equivalent to twenty seen and counting. Somehow the reaction of that fan base has defied all odds as logic would dictate that some should be aware enough to realize the difference.
 
zyron said:
Yeah, never has there been a four game sweep in the history of the playoffs.
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Not after having lost the first three of a best of seven. First and only time that has ever happened in MLB. But hey I know you know that.
 
doggydaddy said:
Funny how you give him a hard time for saying "your" after you said "Is that regular season collapse or postseason collapse? I believe you own the latter."
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Hey doggy its easy giving him a hard time. On your worst day he still makes you look like a prince.
 
NHUConnfan said:
Yankees facing an elimination game, and they're putting up Burnett. Must be a terrible feeling. :)
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Actually it feels great, especially if he goes six plus and only gives up one run.

If Beckett or Lester did that any extra time or two down the stretch, the Sox may also be playing baseball these days instead of golf.
 
Even if other fans care about it (which I don't believe, again I think at most its espn telling them to care) the point is neither the Sox players or their fans cared much about it. The Sox were boo-ed off the field after their last home game at which point the vaunted 'statistics' still said they'd make the playoffs. There were very specific reasons the Sox failed including a choke by a lot of the players that I contend made 'the collapse' very likely to occur so saying its epic because of the 9.5 game lead and the 99.5% odds at that point is arguing numbers in the face of baseball knowledge. And the comparisons to great regular season collapses or comebacks are way overblown because they rely solely on the # of games remaining and the lead. Ie. comparing this drama to Bobby Thompson's homerun is ludicrous.

Regardless if Boston is justifiably or unjustifiably fat dumb and happy from too many championships that is the case. Pre-2004 this would have been calamitous. Post 2004, 07, Celtics, Pats, Bruins its "ehh, hey what's next".
 
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zyron said:
The odds were calculated. The odds of their collapse was 1 in 278 million. I have a better shot at winning Powerball.
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The more I think about it, your 1 in 278 million is a complete crock of sheet. At September 1st the Sox had a nine game lead over TB. In order for it to be a 1 in 278 million chance wouldn't TB have had to finish better than 17-10 from there on out? With those kind of odds shouldn't they have had to finish something like 23-4? They didn't even play .600 ball in the month of September and still won the Wild Card. LOL, that 1 in 278 million BS makes less sense than most of your posts, which is really saying something.
 
bpo57 said:
The more I think about it, your 1 in 278 million is a complete crock of sheet. At September 1st the Sox had a nine game lead over TB. In order for it to be a 1 in 278 million chance wouldn't TB have had to finish better than 17-10 from there on out? With those kind of odds shouldn't they have had to finish something like 23-4? They didn't even play .600 ball in the month of September and still won the Wild Card. LOL, that 1 in 278 million BS makes less sense than most of your posts, which is really saying something.
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Just curious what you put the odds at?

Here is an article on the odds both the Braves and Sox don't make the playoffs.
 
bpo57 said:
The more I think about it, your 1 in 278 million is a complete crock of sheet. At September 1st the Sox had a nine game lead over TB. In order for it to be a 1 in 278 million chance wouldn't TB have had to finish better than 17-10 from there on out? With those kind of odds shouldn't they have had to finish something like 23-4? They didn't even play .600 ball in the month of September and still won the Wild Card. LOL, that 1 in 278 million BS makes less sense than most of your posts, which is really saying something.
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Here it is spelled out for you .
 
bpo57 said:
Read the second paragraph again, einstein. Those odds had nothing to do with the Sox coughing up a nine game lead. Nate Silver? lol.
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Yeah, they have to do with what happened in their collapse. Those are the odds of what happened, happening. What don't you get. It is not the odds of them losing a 9 game lead.
 
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zyron said:
Yeah, they have to do with what happened in their collapse. Those are the odds of what happened, happening. What don't you get. It is not the odds of them losing a 9 game lead.
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They talked about the odds of the game ending in a walkoff etc. Nothing to do with the topic at hand.
 
bpo57 said:
They talked about the odds of the game ending in a walkoff etc. Nothing to do with the topic at hand.
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You mean the odds of them losing the way they did has nothing to do with the odds of losing that way?
 
zyron said:
You mean the odds of them losing the way they did has nothing to do with the odds of losing that way?
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I don't know what to tell you, z. You've got to be one of the only azzclowns in America that think the Red Sox collapse in 2011 was more momentous and improbable than coming back from being down 0-3 in the 2004 ALCS. I am sure that there are Red Sox fans all over the country that would quickly trade in the 2004 WS title in exchange for winning this year's AL wild card. Yeesh.
 
bpo57 said:
I don't know what to tell you, z. You've got to be one of the only azzclowns in America that think the Red Sox collapse in 2011 was more momentous and improbable than coming back from being down 0-3 in the 2004 ALCS. I am sure that there are Red Sox fans all over the country that would quickly trade in the 2004 WS title in exchange for winning this year's AL wild card. Yeesh.
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I don't know what to tell you bpo but if you do not at least agree that both are downright awful and comparable then you are living in a Sawks fanatsy world. 9 game lead with less than a month actually left compared to a good baseball team winning 4 games in a row? It's worth an argument on both ends no doubt and to think one is "better" than the other means someone is real ignorant. That or maybe they'd like to deflect the fact it was a monumental collapse?!?!
 
If the Yanks win this series will ya'll stop fixating on and talking about the Red Sox? I'm assuming your team has to do better than the Sox expected outcome (1st round wildcard exit ala Tampa) to let this alleged massive, monumental and historical collapse fade into Bolivian.

The whole argument is so stupid. Sox fans are saying 'the Sox really sucked' therefore the foundation held a house vulnerable to collapse. Yanks fans are saying 'the Sox really really sucked' and therefore the huge collapse was catastrophic. But we'd already evacuated; the fire department and paramedics were on standby etc.. No one was hurt and ya'll simply need to stop rubbernecking and focus on the road ahead. We've moved on.
 
Dogdeacon said:
If the Yanks win this series will ya'll stop fixating on and talking about the Red Sox? I'm assuming your team has to do better than the Sox expected outcome (1st round wildcard exit ala Tampa) to let this alleged massive, monumental and historical collapse fade into Bolivian.

The whole argument is so stupid. Sox fans are saying 'the Sox really sucked' therefore the foundation held a house vulnerable to collapse. Yanks fans are saying 'the Sox really really sucked' and therefore the huge collapse was catastrophic. But we'd already evacuated; the fire department and paramedics were on standby etc.. No one was hurt and ya'll simply need to stop rubbernecking and focus on the road ahead. We've moved on.
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I hear ya, other DD. I really do. I know you probably weren't one of the many Sox fans that STILL bring up 2004 and the 4 straight losses by the Yanks.
 
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Yes, actually, those odds DID have something to do with that. The 1 in 278 million is a mathematical combination of 4 separate statistical probabilities. The real numbers are certainly different than listed, as they are each based on the ultimate conclusion of the previous, but the odds would still be nearly the same.

Those odds are predicated on the first probability - that the Sox would give up a 9 game lead and miss the playoffs - a 0.3% chance. The percentage probability that they would give up that lead and be one strike away from forcing a 1 game playoff is negligibly higher than 0.3%. Same with the Rays getting to within 1 run after being down 7-0 in the 8th inning.

What is being said here is the chances of the Red Sox blowing a 9 game lead, then being within 1 strike of winning their final game and ultimately losing, AND the Rays coming back from 7-0 to be within 1 run in the 9th, then tying the game AND then winning it - the chances of those 4 things happening is 1 in 278 million. Yes, that is believable.
 
Dogdeacon said:
If the Yanks win this series will ya'll stop fixating on and talking about the Red Sox? I'm assuming your team has to do better than the Sox expected outcome (1st round wildcard exit ala Tampa) to let this alleged massive, monumental and historical collapse fade into Bolivian.

The whole argument is so stupid. Sox fans are saying 'the Sox really sucked' therefore the foundation held a house vulnerable to collapse. Yanks fans are saying 'the Sox really really sucked' and therefore the huge collapse was catastrophic. But we'd already evacuated; the fire department and paramedics were on standby etc.. No one was hurt and ya'll simply need to stop rubbernecking and focus on the road ahead. We've moved on.
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Yeah. Right around the time any argument about the Sox and Yankees isn't ended by Sox fans resorting to the 2004 comeback from being down 3-0. And since that hasn't happened YET, we'll consider letting go of this massive collapse sometime in roughly the year 2018.

Case in point, 5 posts up.

And if I get really bored, I'll go figure out the probability of the Yankees losing each of those 4 games and then combining those 4 into a single probability. I doubt it is even remotely close to 1 in 278 million
 
Deadrody said:
Yeah. Right around the time any argument about the Sox and Yankees isn't ended by Sox fans resorting to the 2004 comeback from being down 3-0. And since that hasn't happened YET, we'll consider letting go of this massive collapse sometime in roughly the year 2018.

Case in point, 5 threads up.

And if I get really bored, I'll go figure out the probability of the Yankees losing each of those 4 games and then combining those 4 into a single probability. I doubt it is even remotely close to 1 in 278 million
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The odds of the Yankees winning three in a row and then losing 4 in a row to the same team is greater than 0.5%. That, right there, is more probable than straight up blowing a 9 game lead over that few games. Honestly, baseball was overdue for what happened to the Yankees in 2004.
 
bpo57 said:
...TB didn't even play .600 ball in the month of September (btw, anybody hear from sinkhole lately?)
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This from the forum profile: "sinkhole was last seen: Tuesday at 9:25 AM"

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!:D
 
Huskymaniac said:
This from the forum profile: "sinkhole was last seen: Tuesday at 9:25 AM"

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!:D
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I don't think any Sox fans should be BWAHAHAHAHAHAing anyone until next season.
 
doggydaddy said:
I don't think any Sox fans should be BWAHAHAHAHAHAing anyone until next season.
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I'm a Yankee fan. I know you don't think it is possible to take issue with the GM or players on the team you are a fan of, but it is. I am a Yankee fan that thinks Cashman is a monkey who has spent way too much money on a lineup with way too many holes. But I will still root for them to overcome his mistakes.
 
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