Metrics say UCONN is a #4 seed - Will NCAA selection committee agree? | The Boneyard

Metrics say UCONN is a #4 seed - Will NCAA selection committee agree?

What metrics? This is Charlie Creme's opinion, or his attempt at predicting the committee's selections. The metrics say:

Massey: UConn #8
NET: #8

Less metrical, but a somewhat more statistical sample:

AP: #10
Coaches: #9

Autumn Johnson (NCAA): 3 seed

So Creme is an outlier.
 
Bigboote said:
What metrics? This is Charlie Creme's opinion, or his attempt at predicting the committee's selections. The metrics say:

Massey: UConn #8
NET: #8

Less metrical, but a somewhat more statistical sample:

AP: #10
Coaches: #9

Autumn Johnson (NCAA): 3 seed

So Creme is an outlier.
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Agree. I think they are a solid 3 right now, but could finish strong and get a 2. Having a healthy Bueckers down the stretch would move them up a couple of notches in the eyes of the committee.
 
stamfordhusky said:
Agree. I think they are a solid 3 right now, but could finish strong and get a 2. Having a healthy Bueckers down the stretch would move them up a couple of notches in the eyes of the committee.
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I don't agree. Seeding does not follow "metrics"—never has and never will. The committee heavily emphasizes quality wins and significant losses. And because they do take into account player availability, a lot will depend on whether Paige returns as projected.

IMO UConn's only shot at getting a 2 seed is to beat Tennessee (and likely would have to run the table otherwise).

If (god forbid) Paige remains sidelined and/or UConn doesn't show at least a return to its level of play prior to Paige's injury, then the wins over Notre Dame and South Florida will count for little, and frankly a 4 seed would be generous at that point.
 
@Rutgers1982 , would you care to offer a substantive rebuttal, rather than "disliking" a post just because you happen to disagree with someone's opinion?
 
You guys aren't as suspicious as I. The way I see it the committee will make UConn a 3 with a comment that if their starters get back and they impress then the committee will make allowences for the losses during their absence. That's been how it's been handled in the past. I'm thinking a 2 seed with either Tenn or NCSt as the 1 seed in Bridgeport.

But this will give ESPN an excuse to rile up the "let's whine about UConn" crowd with claims that Geno "owns" the NCAA. I can't wait. :D:D:rolleyes:
 
Seeding looks a lot like metrics--the seeding last year was similar to the NET--which does value good wins and bad losses. what most of the "metrics" measures miss is injuries.

And I could see us as a 3 seed in Bridgeport as a fair outcome--a four seed penalizes the 1 seed.
 
Glenn said:
Seeding looks a lot like metrics--the seeding last year was similar to the NET--which does value good wins and bad losses. what most of the "metrics" measures miss is injuries.

And I could see us as a 3 seed in Bridgeport as a fair outcome--a four seed penalizes the 1 seed.
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Oregon was #10 in the NET but was only a 6 seed.

West Virginia was #24 in the NET and yet was a 4 seed.

Georgia Tech, at #30 in the NET, was a 5 seed.

Arizona was #15 in the NET but designated a 3 seed, while #9 Indiana was seeded 4 in the same region behind Arizona.

Plenty of other examples of divergence of seeding from NET can be cited.
 
if they don't win the Tenn game, the'll be a 4 because big east play doesn't do much, if they somehow lose a game to a Big east opponent could see them being a 5 seed.
 
The 2 keys will be the TN Game and who is back/how they are playing in the BE tourney. If everyone is back and they are playing like a 2/3 seed, I think the NCAA will base their seeding on the team in place when they end the season (which is fair).
 
First of all Depaul and Tenn are our biggest games for the next couple of weeks. We have to win tonite @ Depaul. Everything for the rest of the season depends on Azzi and Paige being able to play and being effective. Being effective I mean being at least 95% healthy and 80% of what they were. I believe as the season progress's both will get better. With that thought I dont think Paige will be back for the Tenn game. I do think Azzi will. So we will have Christyn and Azzi back for Tenn. If we win that game we should move up a few places in the polls. I am hoping Paige will be back for the next Depaul game, the Big East tourney and the NCAA's. When Paige gets back if everyone is healthy I think we go undefeated. To go undefeated from tonite forward we need to beat Depaul and Tenn which I believe we can do with a healthy Christyn and healthy Azzi. It wont be easy either.

Now if that happens we have a win against a top team in Tenn and then with Paige back well I think we are a top 4 team only because we will have 4-5 losses and most of those would have been against top teams with Paige and others out with injuries and Covid. Lets face it. We have a great roster of players and with the injuries those who are playing have gotten much better and their mental side has become stronger with from what I've seen a Can Do Attitude. Meaning the team has learned to play without depending on Paige and they are not afraid to take it upon themselves to get it done.
 
This would be a great year to go to the WNIT. Put something on the resume. Come back next year with momentum. Since WNIT is done by schools bidding for games, UCONN can play 6 home games and everyone is .
 
Glenn said:
And I could see us as a 3 seed in Bridgeport as a fair outcome--a four seed penalizes the 1 seed.
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Thank you. The stick it to UConn crowd doesn't get this.
 
HopJim said:
Does anyone think Geno and UConn care where they are seeded? My thought is that the only ones who will respond negatively to UConn's placement as a 4th or 3rd seed are the higher seeded teams who have to play a healthy Huskie team.
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Yes he does because only the top 4 seeds get to host in the NCAA’s so anything less than 4 would be weird conundrum since it’s the Bridgeport regional if we’re to slip to 5 we get shipped away from Bridgeport and no home court advantage . UCONN not playing in that regional would be a huge deal for the NCAA never seen a 5 seed host games in the tourney so..
 
HopJim said:
Does anyone think Geno and UConn care where they are seeded? My thought is that the only ones who will respond negatively to UConn's placement as a 4th or 3rd seed are the higher seeded teams who have to play a healthy Huskie team.
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Probably not but... being a 2 or 3 seed means you face a 2 or 3 seeded team in the sweet 16 as opposed to a 1 seed. Can you imagine if they stuck us with SC or Stanford as a 1 seed to get past the sweet 16? I know you have to win 6 games en route to a NC, but that would be a tough ask.
 
Does anyone know when the committee will do a top 16 reveal? Usually they have detailed the dates by now, but I have not seen them mentioned in what I have read.
 
Matty722 said:
Does anyone know when the committee will do a top 16 reveal? Usually they have detailed the dates by now, but I have not seen them mentioned in what I have read.
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The top 16 reveal is scheduled for tomorrow. I think it was originally scheduled because of the UConn v. S.C. game.
 
WFFL said:
Yes he does because only the top 4 seeds get to host in the NCAA’s so anything less than 4 would be weird conundrum since it’s the Bridgeport regional if we’re to slip to 5 we get shipped away from Bridgeport and no home court advantage . UCONN not playing in that regional would be a huge deal for the NCAA never seen a 5 seed host games in the tourney so..
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We wouldn’t be because the place would be empty. The NCAA knows words bread is buttered.
 

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